(04-15-2018 01:06 PM)Ewglenn Wrote:  Like I said I’ll take whatever bet you want if you think Troy wins that game by 40+.

We hung 50 on North Texas and 62 on Texas State. They are both right around 200 on Massey's defensive ratings. Liberty is at 313. That's all I need to know. We'll probably hang 55 on your defense and give up maybe 17, as you guys have one of the better FCS offenses. We have bar none one of the best defenses in the country, so I'm not seeing any kind of shootout.

(04-15-2018 03:42 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(04-15-2018 01:06 PM)Ewglenn Wrote:  Like I said I’ll take whatever bet you want if you think Troy wins that game by 40+.

We hung 50 on North Texas and 62 on Texas State. They are both right around 200 on Massey's defensive ratings. Liberty is at 313. That's all I need to know. We'll probably hang 55 on your defense and give up maybe 17, as you guys have one of the better FCS offenses. We have bar none one of the best defenses in the country, so I'm not seeing any kind of shootout.

I’m not doubting Troy. I think y’all win the game. I even think y’all will do it relatively easily. However, I just don’t see it being that huge of a blowout (40+). We are bringing in a good bit of help through JUCO. A lot will help with depth which has been an issue especially up front. I don’t think the defense will be as bad since there has been a focus on that side of the ball all offseason. Buckshot is a really good QB that will probably end up getting drafted and there is a lot of talent in the WR group. I think it will end up being somewhere around 42-24. But definitely not 50+ to 10.

(04-15-2018 03:52 PM)Ewglenn Wrote:  

(04-15-2018 03:42 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(04-15-2018 01:06 PM)Ewglenn Wrote:  Like I said I’ll take whatever bet you want if you think Troy wins that game by 40+.

We hung 50 on North Texas and 62 on Texas State. They are both right around 200 on Massey's defensive ratings. Liberty is at 313. That's all I need to know. We'll probably hang 55 on your defense and give up maybe 17, as you guys have one of the better FCS offenses. We have bar none one of the best defenses in the country, so I'm not seeing any kind of shootout.

Buckshot is a really good QB that will probably end up getting drafted and there is a lot of talent in the WR group.

Pocket passer?

(04-15-2018 03:57 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(04-15-2018 03:52 PM)Ewglenn Wrote:  

(04-15-2018 03:42 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(04-15-2018 01:06 PM)Ewglenn Wrote:  Like I said I’ll take whatever bet you want if you think Troy wins that game by 40+.

We hung 50 on North Texas and 62 on Texas State. They are both right around 200 on Massey's defensive ratings. Liberty is at 313. That's all I need to know. We'll probably hang 55 on your defense and give up maybe 17, as you guys have one of the better FCS offenses. We have bar none one of the best defenses in the country, so I'm not seeing any kind of shootout.

Buckshot is a really good QB that will probably end up getting drafted and there is a lot of talent in the WR group.

Pocket passer?

Yeah he is more of a PP. 3363 yds 29td 6int in 2017 (11 games)

I see Troy fans licking their chops in anticipation. He won't be in that pocket much when you play Troy.

This series reminds me of the Troy/Marshall series years ago. Anything can happen. Remember when we beat a good Marshall team in 2003, and then again in 2004? (Marshall was more like Boise State back then, they were coming off a big win at #6 Kansas State and we beat them at home the following week)...

It's a Sun Belt OOC game...so of course Troy could lose to Liberty. That being said, Troy seems to be Immune from the league's OOC curse, so I like their odds.

(04-14-2018 08:42 PM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  Ah ha!
So there is a chance....and here it is! 0.0145%

Considering almost every single SBC vs P5 road game this year gives the SBC team a .0145 chance of winning, we're probably looking at a bunch of numbers made up at the top of some dude's head.

(04-14-2018 05:12 PM)debragga Wrote:  https://www.wildcatradioaz.com/copy-of-p...win-prob-1

After reading the win probabilities for GS. As far as preseason prognostications go this one is not very good.

(04-15-2018 05:59 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  It's a Sun Belt OOC game...so of course Troy could lose to Liberty. That being said, Troy seems to be Immune from the league's OOC curse, so I like their odds.

I sure hope so. No doubt, it's been a lonnnnng time since the last time a Belt team beat Liberty in multiple tries, IIRC.

(04-16-2018 01:41 PM)airtroop Wrote:  

(04-15-2018 05:59 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  It's a Sun Belt OOC game...so of course Troy could lose to Liberty. That being said, Troy seems to be Immune from the league's OOC curse, so I like their odds.

I sure hope so. No doubt, it's been a lonnnnng time since the last time a Belt team beat Liberty in multiple tries, IIRC.

Lets see ... 6-5 FCS team, or 11-2 FBS team? Can't see us losing this game.

So GSU is favored to win only 1 game (against USA of all teams) and has only 2 toss-ups. We are supposed to lose the rest apparently. I've heard mixed reviews after the spring game and none were that positive. So I don't think we win less than 3 games next year, it may be more difficult rebuilding than hoped. Also, the new rules about cut blocking down the field will probably have us reworking our game plans (though I'm not sure if would've been a huge part of the offensive strategy). Anyway, still think we should win at least 6-7 games and go bowling. Anything less will have the fans grumbling and some using it as evidence we should've hired a more experienced head coach.

(04-17-2018 06:58 AM)trueeagle98 Wrote:  I've heard mixed reviews after the spring game and none were that positive. So I don't think we win less than 3 games next year, it may be more difficult rebuilding than hoped.

Still no full triple option?

(04-14-2018 11:09 PM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote:  These ratings are not very good. A middle schooler could come up with these ratings.

paints a pretty bleak picture for the conference..giving us little to no chance for a decent ooc win..

(04-17-2018 09:26 AM)runamuck Wrote:  

(04-14-2018 11:09 PM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote:  These ratings are not very good. A middle schooler could come up with these ratings.

paints a pretty bleak picture for the conference..giving us little to no chance for a decent ooc win..

I think it paints a pretty bleak picture for their credibility.

(04-16-2018 03:18 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(04-16-2018 01:41 PM)airtroop Wrote:  

(04-15-2018 05:59 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  It's a Sun Belt OOC game...so of course Troy could lose to Liberty. That being said, Troy seems to be Immune from the league's OOC curse, so I like their odds.

I sure hope so. No doubt, it's been a lonnnnng time since the last time a Belt team beat Liberty in multiple tries, IIRC.

Lets see ... 6-5 FCS team, or 11-2 FBS team? Can't see us losing this game.

Meh. We also said there was no chance App would lose to UMass.

Do I expect you to win? Sure. But I'm not going to set it in stone or anything.

(04-15-2018 12:44 PM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote:  

(04-15-2018 12:39 PM)Ewglenn Wrote:  

(04-15-2018 10:15 AM)TroyMan88 Wrote:  

(04-14-2018 09:54 PM)Ewglenn Wrote:  

(04-14-2018 09:05 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  According to this, Troy loses to Boise, Nebraska, and .... Liberty ...

They must have used their FCS rankings by mistake. They're not a good FCS team (which I guess is now transitional FBS??)

We’ve faired pretty well against FBS teams lately. I’m not saying we will win that game but I don’t think we will be embarrassed this year.

I just looked at y'all's schedule the past 2 seasons and you guys got smacked by every FBS opponent y'all have played except beating a horrible Baylor team last year. I wouldn't consider a 13-36 loss to VT fairing pretty well, and then y'all loss 29-14 to a 5-7 SMU team. Every season is a new season tho, I hope y'all transition well.

True VT was a pretty bad loss but I doubt many SBC teams would have faired better. The SMU score is misleading we were losing 19-14 with 48 seconds to go in the game. All I’m saying is that I think y’all will be surprised by the scores of some of the games we play next year. Should Liberty be favored in the Troy game? No, but will we lose by 40+ like some in this thread think? Absolutely not.

Have you checked Troys scores against P5 schools past 2 years?

Remember ranked LSU last year? And the national champions Clemson the year before?

I’d like our odds against VT last year for sure

And you know, North Texas didn’t think we would hang 50 on them in their bowl either but we did.

Hanging 50 on North Texas has become somewhat of a tradition in South Florida.

(04-15-2018 12:44 PM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote:  And you know, North Texas didn’t think we would hang 50 on them in their bowl either but we did.

I had always heard about CUSA elitism, but had never actually seen it so well entrenched until I went over to their board. They refused to believe that their horrid defense could be touched by a Sun Belt team; the only reason we had several stats Top 5 nationally, was because of our weak SBC schedule. I tried telling them the teams in our league are very similar, but it was like they had some kind of logic repellant armor on.

(04-17-2018 08:47 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(04-17-2018 06:58 AM)trueeagle98 Wrote:  I've heard mixed reviews after the spring game and none were that positive. So I don't think we win less than 3 games next year, it may be more difficult rebuilding than hoped.

Still no full triple option?

People expect us to be as good as we were in 2014 immediately. They want the results without going through the process.

A lot of what has happened this spring is getting rid of the bad mechanics and fundamentals that were in practice (or not, however you want to put it) under the previous staff. Things like periods of practice dedicated to nothing but ball security (which cost us greatly in several games the last 2 years). Lunsford has been focused on making sure the team as a whole is doing the right things they need to do to be successful in the scheme.

There are still some demons to exorcise and as the old saying goes, Rome wasn't built in a day. I'm more concerned that we're doing the right things the right way and continually improving than seeing the full offensive scheme right now. The results will come later.

That said, this will be a rebuilding year, but hopefully we can still get to bowl eligiblity.