Scenarios: Scenarios for everyone!

Cajuns: Basically trying to avoid pulling a UTA this year and doing all this work only to screw up in NOLA. 1 seed 16-1

GSU 11-6 Clinched 2 seed on Tiebreak
GS 10-7 Win they clinch the 3...lose...well, yeah.
ULM 9-8 (Officially ahead of UTA on Tiebreaks)
UTA 9-8
Troy 9-8 (Dear Trojans, We hate you! Your Friend, Tiebreak)
CCU 8-9
App 8-9 (That wild scenario that gave App a Bye is gone...unfortunately
USA 7-10
TXST 7-10

The Arkansas Schools

(02-25-2018 01:49 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  Just for fun, SBC Offices Melt down in a pit of fire (And Arkansas State applauds) scenario:

Georgia Southern beats USA, loses to Troy
UTA: Beats Texas State
ULM: Beats AState and LR
Troy: Beats Georgia State and Georgia Southern

In such a fun scenario: All 4 schools tie for 3rd and 10-8. (Eat your heart out BUBBAS Cup fans)

Tiebreak 1: Record against other tied teams:
GS: 2-3
UTA 3-2
Troy: 2-3
ULM: 3-2 ULM and UTA go to tiebreak 2

Tiebreak 2: Head to Head Record between UTA/ULM

UTA 1-1
ULM 1-1 ULM and UTA go to Tiebreak 3

Tiebreak 3: Record against rest of league by seed

ULL: Both 0-2
GSU: UTA 1-1 ULM 1-0

ULM earns 3 seed:

Without going through the rest of the tiebreaks. UTA would be the 4 seed, Troy the 5 seed, GS the 6 seed

First of all, here is the 4 way tie scenario still in play. I posted this in another thread.

First Round Bye Scenarios

Georgia Southern: Controls their own Destiny. If they defeat the mighty Men of Troy, they will be the 3 seed. If Not...There's an Arkansas school awaiting in the first round, unless somehow Texas State and Arkansas State defeat UTA and ULM respectively

ULM: The Warhawks will get a Bye if they win against Arkansas State Saturday. If they don't win, there's actually a wild scenario which could see them drop all the way to 7th and a matchup with USA/Texas State. No Pressure Warhawks

UTA: Mavericks do not control their own destiny, but will clinch a bye with a win vs Texas State and a loss by either Georgia Southern or ULM.

Troy: Trojans do not control their own destiny, but will earn a Bye with a WIN AND a Loss by either ULM or UTA. (Since they own the tiebreak with GS now)

Disaster Scenarios for each of the 4:

GS: Lose to Troy and watch UTA and ULM both win this week. Eagles finish in a 4 way tie for 3rd, but lose the tiebreak horribly and get the 6 seed and a date with an AState team that just beat them a couple weeks ago. The 6 seed has a better draw than the 5 In my opinion, but I'm not sure a 6 seed would go over well for a team that has been in a bye position all year.

ULM: Lose to AState, Troy beats Georgia Southern, UTA Beats Texas State, App beats Coastal. Warhawks end up in a two way tie for 6th with App, and App wins the tiebreak dropping ULM to 7th and a disaster draw of TXST/USA and then Georgia State.

UTA: I'm not sure UTA has a real disaster scenario. The worst they can do is 6th, and they match up incredibly well with AState, and probably wouldn't complain about say a ULM in Round 2. The tougher match for them might be the 5. (Southern and ULM win, Mavs lose) simply because it puts them in the ULL half of the draw.

Troy: There's a 4 way tie scenario below which would see them finish 7th. However the chances are slim.

4 Way Tie Scenario #2
GS beats Troy
AState beats ULM
Texas State beats UTA
App beats Coastal

4 teams at 9-9

Troy 2-3
ULM: 2-3
App 3-2
UTA 3-2

UTA and App go to head to head. UTA gets the 4 on better record vs Georgia State

3 way tie for 5th:

App 2-1
ULM 1-2
Troy 2-2

App gets the 5 seed

ULM gets the 6 seed over Troy on better record vs Georgia Southern

Troy gets the 7 seed

I have a headache.

(03-02-2018 09:07 AM)BirdofParadise Wrote:  I have a headache.

I have a deepening need for a new men's head coach!!!

Well... If nothing else, we’ll at least know where we stand at tip-off on Saturday. UTA plays tonight and ULM goes two hours before us. Would be great to see some losses and know our bye is safe, but if those two take care of business, we’ll know that there is no help if we don’t play our best.

On a related note, I’d like to invite Persons to spend a nice, long Saturday afternoon on Tybee. No need to show up to Hanner.

Personally, I think you have to worry more about Varnado than Person. Varnado is going to be a tough matchup for the Eagles.

I'm loving the fact by the time the Cajuns start, EVERYTHING will have been decided.

(03-02-2018 11:04 AM)BirdofParadise Wrote:  Personally, I think you have to worry more about Varnado than Person. Varnado is going to be a tough matchup for the Eagles.

I'm loving the fact by the time the Cajuns start, EVERYTHING will have been decided.

Go ahead and Brush up on your Sun Belt tiebreaker rules now. Lord knows you are going to need time filler Saturday during those moments when you guys are up 30 on Little Rock and giving the Walk On's time.

(03-02-2018 01:04 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(03-02-2018 11:04 AM)BirdofParadise Wrote:  Personally, I think you have to worry more about Varnado than Person. Varnado is going to be a tough matchup for the Eagles.

I'm loving the fact by the time the Cajuns start, EVERYTHING will have been decided.

Go ahead and Brush up on your Sun Belt tiebreaker rules now. Lord knows you are going to need time filler Saturday during those moments when you guys are up 30 on Little Rock and giving the Walk On's time.

We only have one walk-on. The other one was awarded a scholly.

(03-02-2018 09:12 AM)Usajags Wrote:  

(03-02-2018 09:07 AM)BirdofParadise Wrote:  I have a headache.

I have a deepening need for a new men's head coach!!!

We will give you Cliff back... will even throw in some golf rounds...

Mav wins tonight 85-82. The win allows Mav to sweep The Bobcats this season.

Historical aside, this was the final game in San Marcos and concludes "The Wall Farewell Tour." Strahan will look markedly different next season.

I think it was The French, when they weren't surrendering, that said: Viva la difference . . . Pretty sure I read that somewhere . . .

Updated 3-6 seed scenarios:

If ULM Beats AState and Georgia Southern beats Troy: GS 3, ULM 4, UTA 5, Troy 6

If ULM Beats AState and Troy beats Georgia Southern: ULM 3, UTA 4, Troy 5, GS 6

If AState beats ULM and Georgia Southern beats Troy and Coastal beats App: GS 3, UTA 4, ULM 5, Troy 6, Coastal 7

If AState beats ULM and Georgia Southern beats Troy and App beats Coastal: GS 3, UTA 4, App 5, ULM 6, Troy 7

If AState beats ULM and Troy beats Georgia Southern, and Coastal beats App: UTA 3, Troy 4, GS 5, ULM 6, Coastal 7

If AState beats ULM and Troy beats Georgia Southern and App beats Coastal: UTA 3, Troy 4, GS 5, App 6, ULM 7


Notes: The only way someone other than ULM, Troy, UTA, GS sneaks into the 3-6 argument is if App beats Coastal and ULM loses to AState. Otherwise, the winner of App/Coastal is guaranteed to finish 7. As mentioned above, App actually holds a 3 way tie with Troy and ULM and a 2 way tie with ULM because they won in Monroe this year. If Troy/App finish tied than Troy wins the tiebreak by virtue of their sweep of Georgia State.

As most can figure out by now, the ULM/AState game will have a massive impact on the final standings here, and that game will finish before Troy/GS tip off. ULM clinches a bye with a win, putting Georgia Southern in a must win, but eliminating Troy from bye contention at the same time. The odd thing is, if ULM wins, it might be better for Troy seeding wise to lose. Win and they'd play UALR and then UTA and ULL in the tournament. Lose, and it's AState then GS, and GSU. Matchup wise, the 6 seed is better than the 5.

If AState somehow wins in Monroe (And this isn't impossible by any means) than Troy gets the tough situation with it all to play for. Win and they get the 4 seed and a Bye. Lose, and with the right result in Boone, they finish 7th and get an extremely tricky first round against either a huge rival or Kasper Ball.

7-10 seed Scenarios: (Not as Messy)

7 Seed: Will be the winner of App/Coastal unless App wins AND AState beats ULM. At that point either ULM or Troy drop into this spot.
8 seed: If South Alabama beats Georgia State, the Jaguars will be the 8 seed. If South loses, the Coastal/App loser gets this spot.
9 seed: If South Alabama beats Georgia State, the Coastal/App loser will be the 9 seed. If South loses, Texas State is the 9 seed.
10 seed: If South Wins, Texas State is the 10 seed. If South loses, the Jaguars are the 10 seed.

(03-03-2018 01:55 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  7-10 seed Scenarios: (Not as Messy)

7 Seed: Will be the winner of App/Coastal unless App wins AND AState beats ULM. At that point either ULM or Troy drop into this spot.
8 seed: If South Alabama beats Georgia State, the Jaguars will be the 8 seed. If South loses, the Coastal/App loser gets this spot.
9 seed: If South Alabama beats Georgia State, the Coastal/App loser will be the 9 seed. If South loses, Texas State is the 9 seed.
10 seed: If South Wins, Texas State is the 10 seed. If South loses, the Jaguars are the 10 seed.

Thanks for all the time and effort you put into this Chiefsfan. So basically, if I want Little Rock to avoid UTA in the first round I need to root for ASU today (not that my rooting will effect the result). Even though we beat UTA (I have no idea how) in our only matchup this year, I still see them as the best team that could end up in the 5 spot.

I don't know how we got to third place before the final week of the season and managed to hold tie breakers over none of the several teams that were right behind us.

(03-03-2018 10:04 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  I don't know how we got to third place before the final week of the season and managed to hold tie breakers over none of the several teams that were right behind us.

Some of its bad breaks. You played ULM once at home and lost, giving them the tiebreak. If you lose to Troy today, it would mean you split, and Troy would have the tiebreak because they went 2-0 against GSU.

To be honest, Troy's tiebreak situation is worse than yours. If the Trojans lose, they lose every single tiebreak with teams around them, and with the wrong results in the rest of the league, could drop all the way to 7th.

ULM loses one tiebreak...to App State of all people, but that one tiebreak means the Warhawks could drop to 7th if they fail to win today.

The odd thing today is the ULM situation. Troy needs ULM to lose for the Trojans to have a chance at a bye, but if the Warhawks do lose, Troy could actually end up with a worse seed than they would get with a ULM win. Likewise ULM winning puts Georgia Southern in a situation where if they lose they get the worst possible seed, but ULM losing makes Troy dangerous because they would know a win would give them a bye.

Essentially the AState @ ULM game will determine every single first round tourney matchup with the exception of the 8/9 game.

AState leads by 7 midway through the first half in Monroe.

(03-03-2018 04:01 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  AState leads by 7 midway through the first half in Monroe.

ASU blowing ULM away 50-32 at the half. What are the chances of ULM finishing 5th with a loss? I think they would be my preferred matchup for Little Rock in the first round.