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Tournament Seed Projections
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wml33t Offline
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Post: #61
Tournament Seed Projections
What’s the story with Mormon? He’s totally out?
02-25-2018 07:09 PM
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tribeinexile Offline
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RE: Tournament Seed Projections
If you mean Morman of Towson, it seems he is no longer on the team, per the Baltimore Sun.
02-25-2018 07:13 PM
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NC Tribe Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Tournament Seed Projections
OK, I have to respond to comments about the school in the host city picking when they play. The CAA has never done this, but CUSA used to do it.

They played first round, quarters and semis during the week, so the host school would play in the prime time slot to maximize ticket sales, at times this lead to a flip flop where the top seed played at night and the 2 seed played in the afternoon and so on..

This led to some odd results, since they used to play the finals at noon on Saturday on CBS. The 49ers got to play the first semi and Louisville, the host school played second. Ending a game close 11 pm and then playing at noon isn't a good deal for the higher seeded team. UNCC beat Louisville in the finals.

Now, since CUSA was a multi bid league, you could argue that having the lower seeded team, which wouldn't have gotten and at large bid, win the tourney was good for the league. Charlotte won 4 games in 4 days that year. I don't care what anyone says, Bobby Lutz is a great coach.
02-25-2018 09:05 PM
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WMtribe17 Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Tournament Seed Projections
(02-25-2018 07:13 PM)tribeinexile Wrote:  If you mean Morman of Towson, it seems he is no longer on the team, per the Baltimore Sun.

That loss could hurt them a bit. He and Starr are 2 of their better 3 point shooters.
02-25-2018 10:12 PM
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Tribeheart Offline
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Post: #65
Tournament Seed Projections
Incredible that Elon has lost 5 straight conference games with the closest loss by 15 points, and that with another loss tonight they would drop all the way to the bottom.

Never felt threatened by them this year because, even with Seibring, they didn't appear to have CAA talent, other than maybe Dimitri Thompson. They were a competitive and very strong defensive team last year with essentially the same group. A head scratching slide, with next year having no better outlook for getting out of the cellar, since they lose Thompson and Dawkins, and have no up and coming stars in the pipeline.

The rest of the league all have a strong nucleus coming back in what should be a league uptick next year, top to bottom, with the exception of Elon if they don't rediscover last years' competitiveness. I don't believe you can mentally change a team's mindset and winning results in a week's prep time prior to a conference tournament, but if somehow Elon does an about face back to last year's chemistry and toughness, they would make for an interesting matchup against Northeastern on Sunday. May be the difference in whether Matheny is back next year.

Will be interesting to see which Elon team shows up tonight against JMU.

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(This post was last modified: 02-26-2018 09:37 AM by Tribeheart.)
02-26-2018 09:28 AM
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zablenoise Offline
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Post: #66
RE: Tournament Seed Projections
(02-26-2018 09:28 AM)Tribeheart Wrote:  Incredible that Elon has lost 5 straight conference games with the closest loss by 15 points, and that with another loss tonight they would drop all the way to the bottom.

Never felt threatened by them this year because, even with Seibring, they didn't appear to have CAA talent, other than maybe Dimitri Thompson. They were a competitive and very strong defensive team last year with essentially the same group. A head scratching slide, with next year having no better outlook for getting out of the cellar, since they lose Thompson and Dawkins, and have no up and coming stars in the pipeline.

The rest of the league all have a strong nucleus coming back in what should be a league uptick next year, top to bottom, with the exception of Elon if they don't rediscover last years' competitiveness. I don't believe you can mentally change a team's mindset and winning results in a week's prep time prior to a conference tournament, but if somehow Elon does an about face back to last year's chemistry and toughness, they would make for an interesting matchup against Northeastern on Sunday. May be the difference in whether Matheny is back next year.

Will be interesting to see which Elon team shows up tonight against JMU.

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Didn't they lose Elijah Bryant? Or was that the year before?

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02-26-2018 10:25 AM
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Tribal Offline
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Post: #67
Tournament Seed Projections
Bryant is in his 2nd session at BYU. BTW, he's killing it.

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(This post was last modified: 02-26-2018 11:14 AM by Tribal.)
02-26-2018 11:13 AM
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TribePride52 Offline
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Post: #68
RE: Tournament Seed Projections
CAA MEN’S BASKETBALL CHAMPIONSHIP TIEBREAKER SCENARIOS

College of Charleston has clinched the #1 seed. Should Charleston finish tied for first at 14‐4 with Northeastern, the Cougars earn the #1 seed based on their sweep of the head‐to‐head matchups.

Northeastern has clinched the #2 seed.

Hofstra will be the #3 seed with a win or a William & Mary loss on Saturday.

If Hofstra and William & Mary finish tied for third at 11‐7, William & Mary is the #3 seed and Hofstra is the #4 seed. The teams split their head‐to‐head matchups, but William & Mary would receive the higher seed based on their presumed win over #1 Charleston.

William & Mary is the #3 seed with a win and a Hofstra loss (see scenario above). Otherwise, William & Mary will be the #4 seed.
Towson will be the #5 seed with a win or a loss by Elon in either of its last two games.

If Elon and Towson finish tied for fifth at 8‐10, Elon is the #5 seed and Towson is the #6 seed based on
Elon’s sweep of the head‐to‐head matchups.

If Elon and UNCW finish tied for sixth at 7‐11, UNCW is the #6 seed and Elon is the #7 seed based on UNCW’s sweep of the head‐to‐head matchups.

If Elon, UNCW and JMU finish tied for sixth at 7‐11, UNCW is the #6 seed, JMU is the #7 seed and Elon is the #8 seed. UNCW and JMU both went 3‐1 in head‐to‐head meetings between the tied teams. UNCW wins the tiebreaker based on its victory over Hofstra.

If UNCW and JMU finish tied for sixth at 7‐11, UNCW is the #6 seed and JMU is the #7 seed. The teams split their head‐to‐head matchups. UNCW wins the tiebreaker based on its victory over Hofstra.

If Elon and Drexel finish tied for sixth at 7‐11 (if Elon beats JMU/loses to Northeastern) – The teams split their head‐to‐head matchups and both went 1‐1 vs. Charleston. Drexel is the #6 seed and Elon is the #7 seed based on the Dragons’ 1‐1 record vs. Northeastern.

If Elon and Drexel finish tied for sixth at 7‐11 (if Elon beats Northeastern/loses to JMU) ‐ The teams split their head‐to‐head matchups and both went 1‐1 vs. Charleston and Northeastern. If Hofstra is the #3 seed, Elon is the #6 seed and Drexel is the #7 seed based on Elon’s 1‐1 record vs. Hofstra. If William & Mary is the #3 seed, Drexel is the #6 seed and Elon is the #7 seed based on Drexel’s 1‐1 record vs. W&M.

If Elon, Drexel and JMU finish tied for sixth at 7‐11, James Madison would be the #6 seed based on its 3‐1 record in head‐to‐head meetings between the tied teams. Drexel (2‐2 record) would be the #7 seed and Elon would be the #8 seed.

If Drexel and JMU finish tied for sixth at 7‐11, Drexel would be the #6 seed and JMU would be the #7 seed. The teams split their head‐to‐head meetings, but Drexel has a 1‐1 record vs. #1 Charleston.

If Elon, UNCW, James Madison and Delaware finish tied for seventh at 6‐12, Delaware would be the #7 seed based on a 5‐1 record vs. the tied teams. UNCW (3‐3) would be the #8 seed based on its win over Hofstra, JMU (3‐3) would be the #9 seed and Elon (1‐5) would be the #10 seed.

If Elon, Drexel, James Madison and Delaware finish tied for seventh at 6‐12, Delaware would be the #7 seed based on a 4‐2 record vs. the tied teams. Drexel (3‐3) would be the #8 seed based on its win over Charleston, JMU (3‐3) would be the #9 seed and Elon (2‐4) would be the #10 seed.

If UNCW, James Madison and Delaware finish tied for eighth at 6‐12, Delaware would be the #8 seed based on its 4‐0 record vs. the tied teams. UNCW (1‐3) would be the #9 seed based on its win over Hofstra and JMU (1‐3) would be the #10 seed.

If Drexel, James Madison and Delaware finish tied for eighth at 6‐12, Delaware would be the #8 seed based on its 3‐1 record vs. the tied teams. Drexel (2‐2) would be the #9 seed and JMU (1‐3) would be the #10 seed.

If Drexel and James Madison are tied for eighth at 6‐12, Drexel is the #8 seed and JMU is the #9 seed. The teams split their head‐to‐head matchups but Drexel has a win over #1 Charleston.

If UNCW and James Madison are tied for eighth at 6‐12, UNCW is the #8 seed and JMU is the #9 seed. The teams split their head‐to‐head matchups but UNCW has a win over #3/#4 Hofstra.

If Drexel and Delaware are tied for eighth at 6‐12, Drexel is the #8 seed and Delaware is the #9 seed. The teams split their head‐to‐head matchups but Drexel has a win over #1 Charleston.

If UNCW and Delaware are tied for eighth at 6‐12, Delaware is the #8 seed and UNCW is the #9 seed based on its sweep of the head‐to‐head matchups.
02-26-2018 12:02 PM
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Naptown Tribe Online
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Post: #69
RE: Tournament Seed Projections
Wow, so net net is if Elon loses tonight they will be the 10 seed. That’s incredible; what a free fall.
02-26-2018 12:23 PM
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WM Beancounter Offline
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RE: Tournament Seed Projections
What are the tiebreakers if Elon and JMU tie in tonight's game?
02-26-2018 12:25 PM
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Tribester Offline
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Post: #71
RE: Tournament Seed Projections
It says on the CAA website that Drexel has already somehow clinched the eight seed no matter what happens tonight. Either Elon/JMU in 7/10 and Drexel/Delaware in 8/9...Or Delaware/Elon in 7/10 and Drexel/JMU in 8/9
02-26-2018 01:03 PM
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TribePride52 Offline
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RE: Tournament Seed Projections
(02-26-2018 01:03 PM)Tribester Wrote:  It says on the CAA website that Drexel has already somehow clinched the eight seed no matter what happens tonight. Either Elon/JMU in 7/10 and Drexel/Delaware in 8/9...Or Delaware/Elon in 7/10 and Drexel/JMU in 8/9

Those scenarios were there from Saturday so I’m not too sure if they were updated.
02-26-2018 01:13 PM
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TribeNiner Offline
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RE: Tournament Seed Projections
(02-26-2018 09:28 AM)Tribeheart Wrote:  Incredible that Elon has lost 5 straight conference games with the closest loss by 15 points, and that with another loss tonight they would drop all the way to the bottom.

Never felt threatened by them this year because, even with Seibring, they didn't appear to have CAA talent, other than maybe Dimitri Thompson. They were a competitive and very strong defensive team last year with essentially the same group. A head scratching slide, with next year having no better outlook for getting out of the cellar, since they lose Thompson and Dawkins, and have no up and coming stars in the pipeline.

The rest of the league all have a strong nucleus coming back in what should be a league uptick next year, top to bottom, with the exception of Elon if they don't rediscover last years' competitiveness. I don't believe you can mentally change a team's mindset and winning results in a week's prep time prior to a conference tournament, but if somehow Elon does an about face back to last year's chemistry and toughness, they would make for an interesting matchup against Northeastern on Sunday. May be the difference in whether Matheny is back next year.

Will be interesting to see which Elon team shows up tonight against JMU.

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Santa Ana always seemed like a pretty solid, fundamental player for them, to me. I know his numbers have dropped some this year, but I think he's a solid, non-primary kinda guy.
02-26-2018 01:21 PM
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WM Beancounter Offline
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RE: Tournament Seed Projections
oohhhh... so now I get it... THIS is what its like not to give a damn about the play-in games.

For decades, we were told that the "pillow fight" games didn't matter, and I didn't understand. Now that its been 5 years since we've played in the first round, I thing I'm finally getting the hang of this.

Here's hoping JMU loses by 50 points to some other school. Doesn't matter which one.
(This post was last modified: 02-26-2018 01:22 PM by WM Beancounter.)
02-26-2018 01:21 PM
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Rocco Offline
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RE: Tournament Seed Projections
(02-26-2018 12:25 PM)WM Beancounter Wrote:  What are the tiebreakers if Elon and JMU tie in tonight's game?

Steel cage match between the coaches on Wednesday.
02-26-2018 01:47 PM
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Zorch Offline
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RE: Tournament Seed Projections
(02-25-2018 02:29 PM)Zorch Wrote:  
(02-25-2018 01:14 PM)Naptown Tribe Wrote:  
(02-25-2018 11:41 AM)Tribester Wrote:  Drexel already has clinched the eight spot. I’m calling it now...they will shock the world and beat Charleston next Sunday. They have beat them before, they can beat them again.

How has Drexel already clinched the 8th spot?

There could be a 4 way tie for 7th if JMU beats Elon tomorrow night and then a crazy world of tiebreakers would ensue.

If JMU wins tomorrow then there is a 4-way tie at 6-12. In the round robin, Delaware went 4-2 and so gets the 7 seed (they beat JMU twice). So then the remaining three have another round robin. JMU wins that by virtue of 3-1 whereas Drexel is 2-2 and Elon 1-3. So JMU would get seed 8. Then in the tiebreaker between Elon and Drexel, the 9 seed would go to Drexel because they beat both Charleston and NE whereas Elon beat only Charleston. So Drexel gets 9 and Elon would get 10.

(02-26-2018 01:03 PM)Tribester Wrote:  It says on the CAA website that Drexel has already somehow clinched the eight seed no matter what happens tonight. Either Elon/JMU in 7/10 and Drexel/Delaware in 8/9...Or Delaware/Elon in 7/10 and Drexel/JMU in 8/9

Here is the source of the confusion (including in the CAA offices):

From the CAA tiebreaker rules quoted previously:

B. Three or More Tied Teams:
1. Compare the combined record of each of the tied teams against the other teams involved in the tie until an advantage is gained. (Example: team A’s combined record against both team B and team C as compared to B’s combined record against both A and C, etc.).
2. If the multiple tie still exists, compare each of the tied teams’ records against the team occupying the highest position in the standings and continue down through the standings until the tie is reduced to a two-team tie (at which time, revert to the two-team process) or until the tie is broken.

So, in my email above (and how I believe tiebreakers generally work), the rules are consulted until one team predominates (Delaware). Then you start fresh with the remaining three teams and do it again (which is how you then wind up with JMU, Drexel, Elon in the scenario if JMU wins tonight). However, what I think the CAA office (Rob Washburn?) has done is that he broke the first tie and came up with Delaware but then, instead of starting over with the remaining three teams, he just went right to rule # 2 above and thus came up with Drexel for 8 seed (based on wins over Charleston and NE). Further proving that wrong, though, is that when determining the last two spots, using this method Elon would be 9 (because of a win over Charleston) and JMU would be 10 -- even though JMU beat Elon twice!!

Anytime one team is eliminated from the mix (either by falling off on the bottom or previously winning (such as Delaware being 4-2)), the usual custom is to then treat the remaining teams as a new set and you start from the top on the tiebreakers.
(This post was last modified: 02-26-2018 02:53 PM by Zorch.)
02-26-2018 02:52 PM
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Tribal Offline
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Post: #77
Tournament Seed Projections
Looks like JMU will edge Elon. Up 4 with a few seconds left

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02-26-2018 08:53 PM
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Naptown Tribe Online
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RE: Tournament Seed Projections
Elon is the 10 seed ... wow ... didn’t see that one coming a month ago
02-26-2018 08:59 PM
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Tribal Offline
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Tournament Seed Projections
For what it's worth[Image: ce4e40c38628894209f1db3a40f55f5a.jpg]

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02-27-2018 06:21 AM
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wml33t Offline
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Tournament Seed Projections
Interesting. Nice pub for sure!
02-27-2018 08:23 AM
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