(02-19-2018 09:55 AM)nachoman91 Wrote:  National Champs

Kenpom O - Kenpom D

2017 UNC 9 - 11
2016 Nova 3 - 5
2015 Duke 3 - 11
2014 UConn 39 - 10
2013 Louisville 7 - 1
2012 Kentucky 2 - 7
2011 UConn - 15 - 19
2010 Duke 1 - 5
2009 UNC 1 - 18
2008 Kansas 2 - 1
2007 Florida 1 - 13
2006 Florida 3 - 7
2005 UNC 2 - 5

And how many of those teams built their statistical resume against the likes of USF, ECU, UCF, and Memphis in league play.

UC doesn't get a chance to play better competition night in and night out because of their league, and they don't have enough money to schedule better buy games at home - because of their league.

(02-19-2018 09:55 AM)nachoman91 Wrote:  National Champs

Kenpom O - Kenpom D

2017 UNC 9 - 11
2016 Nova 3 - 5
2015 Duke 3 - 11
2014 UConn 39 - 10
2013 Louisville 7 - 1
2012 Kentucky 2 - 7
2011 UConn - 15 - 19
2010 Duke 1 - 5
2009 UNC 1 - 18
2008 Kansas 2 - 1
2007 Florida 1 - 13
2006 Florida 3 - 7
2005 UNC 2 - 5

In only 3 of the past 13 years has a teams defense been better than its offense.

And the 2014 UConn team was a complete anomaly because they had a PG that could control and take over games. If your team has a perennial All-American PG that can control every aspect of the game offensively and defensively, can shoot from three, and get to the rim at will for layups or kickouts then the stats get thrown out the books and you can win at anytime.

9 of 13 teams were top 3 offenses... so more top 3 offenses have won championships than top 10 defenses. One common thing I see with those top 3 offenses except maybe for the Villanova team, is that those teams had rosters with multiple first round NBA draft picks. It's tough to score at an elite level when you don't have guys with NBA talent. I do commend Mick's ability to coach elite defenses with good, but not elite talent, but as others have mentioned, when you play schools like Xavier, Wichita State, and last year's UCLA team, you're going to have to outscore them. Elite offenses usually find ways to overcome elite defenses.

(02-19-2018 10:01 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(02-19-2018 09:58 AM)50Cent Wrote:  How many times have we heard rebounding is effort related. How in the world do you get in this point of season...especially after a defeat and chance to take big step to win your league...and not have more effort. Wichita State came to play yesterday. UC showed up.

But we some will still hang their hat on beating a last four out UCLA and day this is a special team and this is a special season. Has Mick admitted he can’t get these guys to play hard...harder...this past week?

Effort is a part of it, but technique and skill level is another. Its one thing to grab all these rebounds when you are playing the stiffs they stiffs in the bottom half of this conference; effort is not going to play as big a role when you have another big guy who is playing with just as much effort on these better ball teams.

Mick right on point. You can't have elite athletics we have and not go hard on glass. Evans 6'5 with over 40 vert, he needs hit glass like he skyed for that rebound he got fouled on. Brooks, Scott, washington also good athletes that should go harder on glass against players on their level. Nso drew couple fouls I think on offense rebounds. Going forward if Mick doesn't want go 4 guards, Nso need be 1st big off bench.

(02-19-2018 10:17 AM)Ragpicker Wrote:  

(02-19-2018 09:55 AM)nachoman91 Wrote:  National Champs

Kenpom O - Kenpom D

2017 UNC 9 - 11
2016 Nova 3 - 5
2015 Duke 3 - 11
2014 UConn 39 - 10
2013 Louisville 7 - 1
2012 Kentucky 2 - 7
2011 UConn - 15 - 19
2010 Duke 1 - 5
2009 UNC 1 - 18
2008 Kansas 2 - 1
2007 Florida 1 - 13
2006 Florida 3 - 7
2005 UNC 2 - 5

And how many of those teams built their statistical resume against the likes of USF, ECU, UCF, and Memphis in league play.

UC doesn't get a chance to play better competition night in and night out because of their league, and they don't have enough money to schedule better buy games at home - because of their league.

stop it. Mick gets paid top 20 $$$. Just spent damn near $250 mil on renovations to athletic department. This was perfect yr to schedule 2 for 1 with bigger programs if deemed necessary to start to relationships with programs. We also could've got some 2 for 1 from some p5 teams if we don't play 250 or below rpi teams. Pitt, UGA, GT, IU, KS, ISU, Vandy, Tenn, Vcu, VT, Clemson, Sc, Auburn, Syracuse all them teams would come here without asking for 2 for 1. We pay them the same as they pay us. Done with the excuses...

(02-19-2018 10:22 AM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  

(02-19-2018 09:55 AM)nachoman91 Wrote:  National Champs

Kenpom O - Kenpom D

2017 UNC 9 - 11
2016 Nova 3 - 5
2015 Duke 3 - 11
2014 UConn 39 - 10
2013 Louisville 7 - 1
2012 Kentucky 2 - 7
2011 UConn - 15 - 19
2010 Duke 1 - 5
2009 UNC 1 - 18
2008 Kansas 2 - 1
2007 Florida 1 - 13
2006 Florida 3 - 7
2005 UNC 2 - 5

In only 3 of the past 13 years has a teams defense been better than its offense.

And the 2014 UConn team was a complete anomaly because they had a PG that could control and take over games. If your team has a perennial All-American PG that can control every aspect of the game offensively and defensively, can shoot from three, and get to the rim at will for layups or kickouts then the stats get thrown out the books and you can win at anytime.

9 of 13 teams were top 3 offenses... so more top 3 offenses have won championships than top 10 defenses. One common thing I see with those top 3 offenses except maybe for the Villanova team, is that those teams had rosters with multiple first round NBA draft picks. It's tough to score at an elite level when you don't have guys with NBA talent. I do commend Mick's ability to coach elite defenses with good, but not elite talent, but as others have mentioned, when you play schools like Xavier, Wichita State, and last year's UCLA team, you're going to have to outscore them. Elite offenses usually find ways to overcome elite defenses.

all them teams besides 2017 unc and 2015 duke known for having better defense than offense.

(02-19-2018 09:55 AM)nachoman91 Wrote:  National Champs

Kenpom O - Kenpom D

2017 UNC 9 - 11
2016 Nova 3 - 5
2015 Duke 3 - 11
2014 UConn 39 - 10
2013 Louisville 7 - 1
2012 Kentucky 2 - 7
2011 UConn - 15 - 19
2010 Duke 1 - 5
2009 UNC 1 - 18
2008 Kansas 2 - 1
2007 Florida 1 - 13
2006 Florida 3 - 7
2005 UNC 2 - 5

In only 3 of the past 13 years has a teams defense been better than its offense.

And the 2014 UConn team was a complete anomaly because they had a PG that could control and take over games. If your team has a perennial All-American PG that can control every aspect of the game offensively and defensively, can shoot from three, and get to the rim at will for layups or kickouts then the stats get thrown out the books and you can win at anytime.

I posted this in another thread, but it bares repeating. The kenpom era began in 2002. I looked at every final four team and ever champion from 2002 on and here is what I found:

Only 1 champion has had a kenpom adjusted defense outside the top 15, none outside the top 20. (that's 15/16 being top 15 kenpom defenses)

There have been only 3 champions with an adjusted offense outside the top 15 (2 of them are UConn in 2011 and 2014 with 2014 UConn finishing all the way down at 39).

75% (12/16) of our champions have been top 15 in both adjusted defense and adjusted offense. Balance

To add to that. The average final four team has an adj O of 18.5 and an adj D of 14.5.

54 out of 64 (84.3%) final four teams have had an adjusted defense of 25 or better. 46 of 64 (71.8%) have had an adjusted offense of 25 or better. 40 of those have had a top 25 adjusted offense and adjusted defense (62.5%).

Both are important... the numbers suggest Defense has been a little more important. Most great teams have both.

There’s only 2 teams in the Kenpom Top 16 that are top 15 in both O and D (Mich St and Purdue). And neither strikes fear in the hearts of men. Especially after this week. The rest either really suck on O or really suck on D. Cincy is actually better than the vast majority. Someone is going to be outside the normal numbers this year and win it all. Might as well be Cincy.

(02-19-2018 12:50 PM)payday Wrote:  There’s only 2 teams in the Kenpom Top 16 that are top 15 in both O and D (Mich St and Purdue). And neither strikes fear in the hearts of men. Especially after this week. The rest either really suck on O or really suck on D. Cincy is actually better than the vast majority. Someone is going to be outside the normal numbers this year and win it all. Might as well be Cincy.

This is an odd year in that regard. A lot of teams are great at either one or the other. Not a ton of balanced team. I trust Michigan State more than anyone else right now for that very reason. It's why I really like UNC and Gonzaga again if they get the right draw...both have pretty good balance. I think Duke and Villanova are the kind of teams where the defense might be better come tournament time.

(02-19-2018 10:17 AM)Ragpicker Wrote:  

(02-19-2018 09:55 AM)nachoman91 Wrote:  National Champs

Kenpom O - Kenpom D

2017 UNC 9 - 11
2016 Nova 3 - 5
2015 Duke 3 - 11
2014 UConn 39 - 10
2013 Louisville 7 - 1
2012 Kentucky 2 - 7
2011 UConn - 15 - 19
2010 Duke 1 - 5
2009 UNC 1 - 18
2008 Kansas 2 - 1
2007 Florida 1 - 13
2006 Florida 3 - 7
2005 UNC 2 - 5

And how many of those teams built their statistical resume against the likes of USF, ECU, UCF, and Memphis in league play.

UC doesn't get a chance to play better competition night in and night out because of their league, and they don't have enough money to schedule better buy games at home - because of their league.

MSU this season...

(02-19-2018 09:26 AM)50Cent Wrote:  

(02-18-2018 07:26 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  Good science, math and logic > emotional knee-jerk over-reactions based upon a very small sample size.

There’s theory and there empirical evodence. Prediction vs experiment.

Well the data is in...

XU
Florida
Houston
Wichita St

It’s says the #2 kenPom defense isn’t good enough to beat top 25 teams. And quite possibly that loading up on cupcake state and little sisters of the poor U makes that ranking flawed.

There is little in this year’s experience to suggest you are incorrect.

I think for UC to make it past the second or third round, they will need good matchups and higher seeds to fall before they meet them. Of course, none of this seems to happen for UC in the tournament.

In the last 12 years we've seen George Mason, Butler (twice), VCU, Wichita State and Gonzaga all make the final four from worst conference than the American. Gonzaga and Butler (twice) made the National Championship game. We've seen UConn make the final four and win the National Championship from the American. It can certainly be done.

Just look at these Top 5 Adj O and D...

Virginia 42 and 1
Nova. 1 and 42
DOOK. 2 and 43
Cincy. 52 and 2


If stats are your thing...Cincy’s a favorite. As nearly all the rest are worse than that.

(02-19-2018 01:04 PM)payday Wrote:  Just look at these Top 5 Adj O and D...

Virginia 42 and 1
Nova. 1 and 42
DOOK. 2 and 43
Cincy. 52 and 2


If stats are your thing...Cincy’s a favorite. As nearly all the rest are worse than that.

I’m glad you posted this as I was pondering these very numbers while treadmilling at the gym. Objective stats need subjective interpretation. I guess if I were trying to be more objective about it, I’d be much more impressed with Virginia’s number 1 D than UC’s number 2 given their respective SOSs. I just don’t think it’s enough to look at their rankings without paying attention to how they got there.

With that said, if UC proves me wrong next month, I’ll happily admit as much. I really want Cronin to have his breakthrough year. And it would be nice to have sports team be the focus of some very positive attention.

(02-19-2018 02:44 PM)BearcatsUC Wrote:  

(02-19-2018 01:04 PM)payday Wrote:  Just look at these Top 5 Adj O and D...

Virginia 42 and 1
Nova. 1 and 42
DOOK. 2 and 43
Cincy. 52 and 2


If stats are your thing...Cincy’s a favorite. As nearly all the rest are worse than that.

I’m glad you posted this as I was pondering these very numbers while treadmilling at the gym. Objective stats need subjective interpretation. I guess if I were trying to be more objective about it, I’d be much more impressed with Virginia’s number 1 D than UC’s number 2 given their respective SOSs. I just don’t think it’s enough to look at their rankings without paying attention to how they got there.

With that said, if UC proves me wrong next month, I’ll happily admit as much. I really want Cronin to have his breakthrough year. And it would be nice to have sports team be the focus of some very positive attention.

It's always important to note that these numbers are adjusted for strength of schedule. Cincinnati is actually ahead of Virginia in raw defensive efficiency.

(02-19-2018 01:04 PM)payday Wrote:  Just look at these Top 5 Adj O and D...

Virginia 42 and 1
Nova. 1 and 42
DOOK. 2 and 43
Cincy. 52 and 2


If stats are your thing...Cincy’s a favorite. As nearly all the rest are worse than that.

I always use the TeamRankings.com Site. You can break down the Offensive and Defensive Efficiency ratings for any time period on the calendar you want.

They also break down the last 3 games efficiency ratings for each team.

If you follow blocks of the season when a team plays opponents who are Tourney teams you can see which efficiency rating (offensive or defensive) goes down more. The better teams you play in a given period, the more your efficiency ratings slide (usually) because of the better competition.

One thing about UC. Whenever they have a stretch of games against better competition their defensive efficiency rating takes a hit more than their offensive efficiency rating. For instance, the last three games (which includes Houston and WS), UC's defensive efficiency rating took a .15 hit, while their offense efficiency rating only took a .04 hit.

It's been consistent when we play better competition over a stretch of games. Good teams generally score the ball better.

Great thread thus far. Some really informative metrics, and such being shared.

I'm late to the party with our season thus far. My takeaway is that we're operating at about peak Mick Cronin this year. Defensively, we're about as good as one can get. Offensively.....we're just merely good for a Cronin coached team. His offensive prowess has never been enough to get the job done in the post season. However, considering we're doing as well as we are I think it's fair to have some expectations that we exceed our typical results. Can't wait to see our draw. As long as we're not playing a high level offense I like our chances to advance.



mc

(02-18-2018 07:54 PM)Bearcat01 Wrote:  We haven't played a team that could match our length or athleticism this year besides UCLA or FL. No way we should be getting punked by UH or WSU. Have learn switch it up Mick

Hmmm - seems like the stats would indicate WSU athleticism compares to Cincy?

I think WSU length was at least equal except for your huge 6'11" guy.

At one point on the floor for WSU was 6'4", 6'5", 6'8", 6'9", 6'8". And we had 6'10" Nurger off the bench.

(02-19-2018 10:11 PM)pvtlamb Wrote:  

(02-18-2018 07:54 PM)Bearcat01 Wrote:  We haven't played a team that could match our length or athleticism this year besides UCLA or FL. No way we should be getting punked by UH or WSU. Have learn switch it up Mick

Hmmm - seems like the stats would indicate WSU athleticism compares to Cincy?

I think WSU length was at least equal except for your huge 6'11" guy.

At one point on the floor for WSU was 6'4", 6'5", 6'8", 6'9", 6'8". And we had 6'10" Nurger off the bench.

Don't take him seriously

(02-19-2018 12:53 PM)payday Wrote:  

(02-19-2018 10:17 AM)Ragpicker Wrote:  

(02-19-2018 09:55 AM)nachoman91 Wrote:  National Champs

Kenpom O - Kenpom D

2017 UNC 9 - 11
2016 Nova 3 - 5
2015 Duke 3 - 11
2014 UConn 39 - 10
2013 Louisville 7 - 1
2012 Kentucky 2 - 7
2011 UConn - 15 - 19
2010 Duke 1 - 5
2009 UNC 1 - 18
2008 Kansas 2 - 1
2007 Florida 1 - 13
2006 Florida 3 - 7
2005 UNC 2 - 5

And how many of those teams built their statistical resume against the likes of USF, ECU, UCF, and Memphis in league play.

UC doesn't get a chance to play better competition night in and night out because of their league, and they don't have enough money to schedule better buy games at home - because of their league.

MSU this season...

Michigan State won the National Championship? Damn, missed it. Thanks. Is it Opening Day yet?

(02-19-2018 10:35 PM)Ragpicker Wrote:  

(02-19-2018 12:53 PM)payday Wrote:  

(02-19-2018 10:17 AM)Ragpicker Wrote:  

(02-19-2018 09:55 AM)nachoman91 Wrote:  National Champs

Kenpom O - Kenpom D

2017 UNC 9 - 11
2016 Nova 3 - 5
2015 Duke 3 - 11
2014 UConn 39 - 10
2013 Louisville 7 - 1
2012 Kentucky 2 - 7
2011 UConn - 15 - 19
2010 Duke 1 - 5
2009 UNC 1 - 18
2008 Kansas 2 - 1
2007 Florida 1 - 13
2006 Florida 3 - 7
2005 UNC 2 - 5

And how many of those teams built their statistical resume against the likes of USF, ECU, UCF, and Memphis in league play.

UC doesn't get a chance to play better competition night in and night out because of their league, and they don't have enough money to schedule better buy games at home - because of their league.

MSU this season...

Michigan State won the National Championship? Damn, missed it. Thanks. Is it Opening Day yet?

Michigan State isn't even a good comp. They've played 5 teams in the top 15 of the rankings and 5 other tournament caliber teams (Not even counting ND who was a Top 10 caliber team before Bonzi Colson's injury). We've played 3 teams ranked in the Top 25 (lost to all of them) and one other tournament caliber team.