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Seahawk Nation 08 Online
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Post: #1
W&M
Not looking ahead to this one, I just know I won't be able to post a preview thread for this game tomorrow; making a trip to NYC this weekend and will be missing the game entirely (except what I can watch on my phone), I'm afraid!



CAA Standings

1. NU 7-2 (# 76 RPI)
2. W&M 6-3 (# 77)
Charleston 6-3 (# 110)
4. Hofstra 5-4 (# 107)
Towson 5-4 (# 85)
6. Elon 4-5 (# 144)
Delaware 4-5 (# 227)
UNCW 4-5 (# 270)
9. JMU 2-7 (# 259)
Drexel 2-7 (# 305)


Efficiency Rankings (kenpom.com)

UNCW

Adjusted Offense: # 203 (of 351)
Adjusted Defense: # 319
Overall: # 269

W&M

Adjusted Offense: # 39
Adjusted Defense: # 331
Overall: # 174


Projected Starters

PG: David Cohn (r-Sr.): 13.7 ppg, 6.3 apg, .471 3-pt %, 1.4 spg
G: Matt Milon (r-So.): 14.5 ppg, .491 3-pt %, .889 FT %
G: Connor Burchfield (Sr.): 12.0 ppg, .514 3-pt %, .895 FT %
F: Justin Pierce (So.): 12.3 ppg, 8.5 rpg, .878 FT %
F: Nathan Knight (So.): 19.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.4 bpg


Offensive efficiency is a trait that Tony Shaver has stressed throughout his tenure as W&M's head coach. It's what the program hangs it's hat on. By spreading the court and either nailing threes or getting easy layups off backdoor cuts, Shaver was a bit ahead of the curve when it came to the analytics game. The NBA adopted the "Three or layup" philosophy first, basically doing away with the mid-range jumper. It's spread to the college game too, where Shaver had already set up shot years before.

So it should be the ultimate compliment to suggest that this Tribe team has the potential to be his best overall offense yet. Sitting 38th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while sporting a starting lineup with three sophomores whose ceilings keep climbing higher and higher, this 2017-18 Tribe are built to match Shaver's vision.

The more basic numbers further back this up. The Tribe ranked 1st in the league in all three shooting categories; Field goal (.508), three-point (.445), and free throw (.807) percentages. And their lead in all three categories is fairly massive. 10 players in the CAA are shooting above .500; the Tribe have 4 of them. The Tribe have the three best 3-point shooters in the league (Burchfield, Milon, Cohn) and the 2 best Free throw shooters (Cohn, Pierce). On top of all that, W&M are # 1 in the league in Assist:TO ratio (1.4).

The good news is that as good as W&M is on offense, they are not very efficient on defense overall. They rank last in FG % defense (.485), though they do a decent job of defending the 3, where they rank 4th (.351), and because of the presence of Nathan Knight, the # 2 shot blocker in the league, they also do a good job of protecting the rim as long as he's on the floor. But they're 9th in turnover margin (-1.63).

Needless to say, we can expect a high scoring game. It will be very interesting to see what Vegas sets the O/U at.
(This post was last modified: 01-25-2018 10:50 PM by Seahawk Nation 08.)
01-25-2018 09:37 AM
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Seahawk Nation 08 Online
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Post: #2
RE: W&M
The undercard is finished. Now time for the main event on Saturday night. This game will be nuts.
01-25-2018 10:45 PM
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solohawks Offline
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RE: W&M
I really want to beat these guys
01-25-2018 10:52 PM
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82hawk Offline
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RE: W&M
Someone asked if any CAA team was a bad matchup for UNCW? IMO the Tribe is a bad matchup. They have a big man that can go toe to toe with us in the paint. They can hit the three from almost any position. They are highly disciplined on offense and run precise cuts and back doors every possession. They have a PG who can get up and down the floor and can score. And, they don't miss FT's for the most part. This was the game I was the most concerned about all year.

My biggest concern right now is that we are struggling on offense, and you have to score if you are going to beat William and Mary. But, their defense is the weakest part of their team. They also don't have the athleticism that gives us problems. I'm also concerned Cacok and Bryan on the court together will have trouble keeping up with the cuts and getting out on the three point shot.

Hate to say it, but I think the Tribe just have too much offense for us this year. Hope i'm wrong. And if i'm wrong, I think the Hawks will go on a run and finish 9-9 in the CAA

Ugliest school colors in the NCAA - 85
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(This post was last modified: 01-26-2018 05:54 AM by 82hawk.)
01-26-2018 05:37 AM
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Gary Miller Offline
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Post: #5
RE: W&M
I wonder how much of our offensive woes as of late are related to these nagging injuries guys seem to be playing with. I think the atmosphere at Trask will give us a shot on Saturday Night. W&M is a well coached team and we will have to play a full 40 (and possibly more) to get this W. WINGS UP!
01-26-2018 09:43 AM
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solohawks Offline
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RE: W&M
Trask will be rocking Saturday
01-26-2018 10:19 AM
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82hawk Offline
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RE: W&M
Easily the biggest game this season. If we can get a 3 game homestand sweep, taking down Towson and William and Mary while we're at it, I think we would be hitting stride for the back side of the CAA slate. But the Tribe has the type of scoring from all over the floor that will be hard to stop. They can flat out light it up beyond the arc. Trask should be loud. I've heard the students are really turning it out this year.
01-26-2018 10:26 AM
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solohawks Offline
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RE: W&M
(01-26-2018 10:26 AM)82hawk Wrote:  Easily the biggest game this season. If we can get a 3 game homestand sweep, taking down Towson and William and Mary while we're at it, I think we would be hitting stride for the back side of the CAA slate. But the Tribe has the type of scoring from all over the floor that will be hard to stop. They can flat out light it up beyond the arc. Trask should be loud. I've heard the students are really turning it out this year.

They are getting better and louder every game.
01-26-2018 01:42 PM
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Seahawkhoops Offline
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Post: #9
RE: W&M
(01-26-2018 01:42 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(01-26-2018 10:26 AM)82hawk Wrote:  Easily the biggest game this season. If we can get a 3 game homestand sweep, taking down Towson and William and Mary while we're at it, I think we would be hitting stride for the back side of the CAA slate. But the Tribe has the type of scoring from all over the floor that will be hard to stop. They can flat out light it up beyond the arc. Trask should be loud. I've heard the students are really turning it out this year.

They are getting better and louder every game.

that's exciting to hear. I miss the old Trask days!
01-26-2018 01:48 PM
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solohawks Offline
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RE: W&M
(01-26-2018 01:48 PM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  
(01-26-2018 01:42 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(01-26-2018 10:26 AM)82hawk Wrote:  Easily the biggest game this season. If we can get a 3 game homestand sweep, taking down Towson and William and Mary while we're at it, I think we would be hitting stride for the back side of the CAA slate. But the Tribe has the type of scoring from all over the floor that will be hard to stop. They can flat out light it up beyond the arc. Trask should be loud. I've heard the students are really turning it out this year.

They are getting better and louder every game.

that's exciting to hear. I miss the old Trask days!

The turnout they are bringing is the best it has been in a long time. They just gotta work on getting that whole side to stand and be loud for 40 entire game minutes. But they are definitely headed in the right direction and making a good effort to bring it back. They deserve a lot of credit. There is a guy/group on twitter called UNCWRowdyhawks I would advise you all to check out.
01-26-2018 02:03 PM
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Seahawkhoops Offline
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Post: #11
RE: W&M
(01-26-2018 02:03 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(01-26-2018 01:48 PM)Seahawkhoops Wrote:  
(01-26-2018 01:42 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(01-26-2018 10:26 AM)82hawk Wrote:  Easily the biggest game this season. If we can get a 3 game homestand sweep, taking down Towson and William and Mary while we're at it, I think we would be hitting stride for the back side of the CAA slate. But the Tribe has the type of scoring from all over the floor that will be hard to stop. They can flat out light it up beyond the arc. Trask should be loud. I've heard the students are really turning it out this year.

They are getting better and louder every game.

that's exciting to hear. I miss the old Trask days!

The turnout they are bringing is the best it has been in a long time. They just gotta work on getting that whole side to stand and be loud for 40 entire game minutes. But they are definitely headed in the right direction and making a good effort to bring it back. They deserve a lot of credit. There is a guy/group on twitter called UNCWRowdyhawks I would advise you all to check out.
I'm not on Twitter. I don't twat, opps i mean tweet COGS
01-26-2018 02:11 PM
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Seahawk Nation 08 Online
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Post: #12
RE: W&M
This game could easily reach triple digits for both teams, within regulation.
01-26-2018 11:05 PM
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billthebighawksfan Offline
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RE: W&M
Hawks a 1.5 underdog at home-thought it would be the Tribe by 3 or 4. Being an underdog at home at the beach is rare, but very understandable given what UNCW lost last year. Hawks can win this game with a complete game. Oddsmakers giving Hawks credit for improvement and the home crowd. I hope that the Hawks can put it together. The certainly have a good shot against any CAA team at this point. This isn't the same UNCW team that started the season. Go Hawks!!
01-27-2018 12:11 AM
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82hawk Offline
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RE: W&M
Reading the William and Mary boards, Towson implemented a 3-2 zone to create pressure at the three point line and to interrupt their back cuts. It worked like magic. Hoping we come up with something similar. That offensive movement by the Tribe is nasty if you've never faced them before. Our guys are going to have to close out quickly on their three point shooters. On offense, we are going to have to give the ball to Cacok and Bryan in the post. We will have a huge advantage in power down low, and even a missed shot is a great chance at an offensive rebound. I'd also like too see some full court press like we did against Elon, to run some clock and force them to score with less time on the clock.

The Tribe are 3-6 this season when they score under 80(They weren't over 80 when they went to OT against Towson and lost) and 10-1 when they score over 80. UNCW has done better in the CAA when we scored in the 70's, beating JMU, Towson, and Elon, and playing it close with NU and CofC in the 70's(again, with OT bumping games barely over 80). We are actually a better slow down, half court team this year because we can pound it in the post and get points. Run when we can, but not on purpose.

IMO, Game in the 70's, we win. Game in the mid 80's or more, we lose.
01-27-2018 07:22 AM
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Proff Offline
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RE: W&M
We are 1.5 point dogs with over/under at 166.

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01-27-2018 11:16 AM
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Seahawk2010 Offline
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Post: #16
RE: W&M
Need to get Nathan Knight in foul trouble early. Without him they have no inside presence.
01-27-2018 01:07 PM
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Seahawk Nation 08 Online
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Post: #17
RE: W&M
(01-27-2018 11:16 AM)Proff Wrote:  We are 1.5 point dogs with over/under at 166.

If I were a betting man, I’d put a lot of money on the over.

W&M may have some tired legs after that physical battle with Towson, followed by a long bus ride. We should be able to put up points.
01-27-2018 04:50 PM
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Seahawk2010 Offline
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RE: W&M
Haha UNCW not wearing the black jerseys on the "Blackout Night." We have played horribly the two times we have worn those.
01-27-2018 07:01 PM
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Seahawk2010 Offline
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RE: W&M
Burchfield doesn't miss.
01-27-2018 07:20 PM
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solohawks Offline
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RE: W&M
The tribe and their zone always gives us trouble
01-27-2018 07:30 PM
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