JRsec
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RE: Realignment's Sobering Numbers For Those Who Like To Create Move Scenarios
(01-27-2018 11:37 AM)bullet Wrote: (01-27-2018 09:15 AM)GE and MTS Wrote: (01-25-2018 10:51 PM)JRsec Wrote: (01-25-2018 09:47 PM)GE and MTS Wrote: (01-22-2018 06:09 PM)JRsec Wrote: Conference/Attendance Average / Gross Total Revenue Average / WSJ Estimated Values For Product Average
1. SEC / 77,565 / $121,240,504 / $523,416,428
2. B1G / 66,162 / $108,269,417 / $415,748,643
3. B12 / 57,238 / $102,170,537 / $376,433,300
4. PAC / 50,112 / $ 89,239,736 / $253,766,417
5. ACC / 49,827 / $ 87,034,205 / $182,383,929
Those attendance figures don't paint the whole picture from my calculations (I made a thread on the Liberty board as a project to show what it would take to be a P5 candidate). I assume you got those from the NCAA website. If so, their conference breakdown is on a per conference game average, not a per school average. Since each of the schools don't have the same number of home games, the two averages don't match.
Another way of explaining it:
The NCAA gets their average from the total home attendance for a conference divided by the number of games instead of taking the average attendance for each school and averaging over the number of schools. I think the latter is the better method as it accounts for the disparity in the number of home games but I understand those who prefer the former.
What I came up when averaging the conference members' averages were these:
SEC: 77,165
Big Ten: 65,574
Big 12: 57,569
PAC 12: 50,366
ACC: 49,716
I took the annual reported attendance figures for each of the schools and averaged them by conference. But truthfully there's not enough difference there to quibble over. Statistically they are virtually the same. It is a tool for determining the strength of a candidate, and as I stated it's not a stat that is a deal maker, but it is certainly one that could be a deal breaker. E.G. Kansas averaged a little over 25,000 in 2016-7. The ones for 2017-8 won't be available until late March or early April. It looks like most are lower by 200 to 300 by your calculations and the PAC is up by about 200. That's less than a 3/1000th variance.
And once again my links for all of this kind of data is in the pinned threads at the top of the SEC board.
The more relevant numbers are those of the Gross Total Revenue which is an indicator of earning potential and the ability to raise funds, and that supplied by the WSJ annually which shows the economic impact that a school has over its state or region. Somtimes the number of living alumni are compared to attendance, TV ratings, the number of contributors, etc.
Geographical fit, cultural fit, and academics are also weighed, but the bottom line again is if they don't add to the bottom line they aren't added. Which of course why the data sets I listed are essential to determining their estimated value as an addition.
I wasn't trying to be difficult, just accurate. I was surprised to see the NCAA's averages for each conference when I was going through. For reference:
SEC: 77,507
Big Ten: 66,151
Big 12: 57,531
Pac 12: 50,073
ACC: 49,734
I agree with you that it is very stark the contrast between Texas and Oklahoma compared to the remaining Big 12 schools. Personally, I found the Pac 12 schools interesting as they had the tightest range for all of them. Their lowest performing school had the second-best attendance compared to all other lowest performing schools in each conference. On the other hand, they have the lowest median and the lowest top figure (by far). And not that it matters, I came up with the same numbers on the WSJ numbers that you posted with a slight difference with the Big 12 but not enough to matter.
Thinking out loud, I wonder if an analysis like this sparks a conference to question whether or not certain members are pulling their weight. As I think about it, probably not unless they could really pull in the big fish. Purdue, Vanderbilt, Washington State, Wake Forest, Kansas State, etc. are all ahead of G5 schools so unless there were unofficial trades (Purdue for Vanderbilt for instance), then there would be no reason to expel a member(s) unless the conference would make a boatload more money to offset potentially destroying a relationship.
Whether you look at mean or median, the numbers tell basically the same result. Its actually the Big 10 that is most impacted in its average by the big attendance schools, not the Big 12. Weighting each school equally in a 4 year average gives you the following:
Conference-mean-median
SEC 77,441-82,999
B10 65,973-56,880
B12 57,517-55,233
P12 50,907-47,793
ACC 49,018-49,845
AAC 30,100-31,553
MWC 24,435-23,299
USA 19,877-19,894
SuB 18,658-19,049
MAC 15,565-16,007
Those numbers are relevant as well. This is where the biggest difference in Gross Total Revenue can be accounted for. When you consider the extra ticket sales, the difference in ticket prices from conference to conference, and the donations involved it really dwarfs the differences in TV revenue. Of course this can get skewed in year over year figures when T.Boone, or a rich Aggie donate millions for a stadium renovation. But with a multiple year averaging you can level those a bit.
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