(02-09-2018 02:41 PM)AtlantaJag Wrote:  

(02-09-2018 12:12 PM)AppManDG Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 10:14 PM)AtlantaJag Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 09:18 PM)AppManDG Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 12:48 PM)NCeagle Wrote:  so when you look at facts comparing recruiting rankings and school rankings, and see that app greatly over performs to their level of talent compared to the rest of college football, you consider that an opinion?

Interesting.

I take it you aren't in a field that involves analytics of any sort.

I take it you're not in a field that involves comprehension.

The opinion I refer to is that of the recruiting "experts" who evaluate these players. A rating is nothing more than one person's opinion. The difference is where some place an unwavering belief in the accuracy of the rating system, I see it as inherently flawed. I am amused you guys are dead set on attributing App's success to a superior & stable coaching staff, simply because in your mind there is no way these low rated players could perform to that high of a standard. I have argued ad nauseam App looks for players who best fit our scheme and embrace the Boone environment, regardless of the rating. There comes a point when you have to step back and question this rating system. Five of App's top ten 3 Star signees (including the top three) didn't make it to their Soph year. Another left after the Jr year. One third of the thirty three 3 star signees left the program early. Of those who stayed and graduated, two WR's had a combined stat line of 16 receptions. 1 TD, one RB was a career back up to 2 star Marcus Cox, another had 48 carries for 197 yards. Two defensive players became starters their Sr seasons. Meanwhile none of App's All Sunbelt honorees were rated three stars. Including a OPY who failed to be given the minimum,700 2 star rating.

A) The ratings are given by people that use a set of criteria to evaluate players as their profession. If they were consistently wrong, they wouldn't have jobs in the industry for very long.
B) Those "experts" and their "opinions" are what form the ratings that so strongly correlate to on the field success.
C) I doubt you believe that those low-rated players that succeeded at App St would have done as well at a different school under a different coach, so why is it so difficult to just credit Satterfield and his staff for finding players that didn't stand out significantly in high school and developing them beyond what their abilities appeared to be?

You don't think Jalin Moore & Marcus Cox would have been great backs anywhere he went? Clifton Duck would have been a worse CB freshman All American as a true freshman - at another school? Coaching is important, but no coach can turn so-so talent into all conference players. Our staff has a very good eye for talent and I KNOW they could care less about the number of stars a prospect has.

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So you think the coaching and development at App State isn't that important, then.
Interesting take.

Nice try.

I went back through the 2017 All-SBC team and looked at the 247 star ratings for each App State rep.

First Team
Jalin Moore (NR)
Ike Lewis (**)
Colby Gossett (**)
Beau Nunn (**)
Victor Johnson (**)
Tee Simms (**)
Eric Boggs (**)
Clifton Duck (**)

Second Team
Taylor Lamb (**)
Tae Hayes (**)

There is not a single three-star guy here. Not even one.
Lamb got a 3-star rating from 247 I believe but the composite was 2 stars. I couldn't find any rating for Moore.

So you're going to tell me that of the 15 three-star App signees listed in the 2014, 2015, and 2016 classes, not even one of those guys made the all-SBC team?

All outliers, amiright? Sorry guys, but AppManDG is right.

(02-09-2018 08:02 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  I went back through the 2017 All-SBC team and looked at the 247 star ratings for each App State rep.

First Team
Jalin Moore (NR)
Ike Lewis (**)
Colby Gossett (**)
Beau Nunn (**)
Victor Johnson (**)
Tee Simms (**)
Eric Boggs (**)
Clifton Duck (**)

Second Team
Taylor Lamb (**)
Tae Hayes (**)

There is not a single three-star guy here. Not even one.
Lamb got a 3-star rating from 247 I believe but the composite was 2 stars. I couldn't find any rating for Moore.

So you're going to tell me that of the 15 three-star App signees listed in the 2014, 2015, and 2016 classes, not even one of those guys made the all-SBC team?

All outliers, amiright? Sorry guys, but AppManDG is right.

AState had a class a few years back that finished in the top 70 nationally in recruiting. I believe 50 percent of that signing class never played a down here. The guy many of our fans believe is the greatest player in school history was Not ranked by any recruiting service, and had only a couple token FCS offers outside of our own.

Once you hit the G5 level, services are far more likely to miss on kids.

Side note, ESPN did a video piece a couple days ago on notably strong G5 classes. They listed UCF, South Florida, App State, and Arkansas State.

(02-08-2018 03:19 PM)AtlantaJag Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 12:36 PM)AppManDG Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 10:06 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 09:58 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 08:50 AM)NCeagle Wrote:  you are clearly missing the point.

Anecdotal evidence doesn't work when looking at trends of 130+ teams.

It's like saying you played russian roulette with a 6 shooter, and didn't get shot twice, therefore it's a safe game to play.

No I get your point, but you're missing mine. Some schools just get more out of the players. App is one of them, Boise is another.

Overall recruiting ranking DO provide a guide of who will be good in the future, yet a handful of programs continue to over perform their historical rankings.

We all get that point, so much so that's it's part of all our arguments. We know there are schools that overachieve because they have great coaching staffs. We are arguing against the "the recruiting rankings don't matter at all" crowd.

I've not seen one post saying recruiting doesn't matter. I've made lot's of posts saying you can't base everything on stars. First and foremost you absolutely must find players that fit your system and culture. You recruit potential and develop it. I keep a database of App's recruits star ratings. Excluding the last two signing classes, an overwhelming majority of our highest rated 3 star signees washed out of the program by their redshirt sophomore year. Conversely, some of the most decorated players in App history we're not highly regarded by the recruiting"experts". Many at the very bottom end of the rating scale. Some like to cite studies and articles, but it's hard to dispute solid data. I know, I know.... App is an exception. Explain it away all you like. Results speak for themselves.

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I'll give you this:
Your refusal to accept facts that contradict your predisposed way of thinking is consistent with your stance on evolution.

I do not refuse to accept facts, just BS. And you're good at slinging it.
Here are some facts for you.
There are fifty 24-7 analysts nationwide.
24-7 rated 3890 players in 2017.
Nationally 1,083,000 kids participated in high school football 2017.*
The senior class was roughly 250,000.
That is approximately 5,000 players per analyst, not including JUCO players.

*http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/research/estimated-probability-competing-college-athletics

My stance on evolution is quite simple. Life could not arise by physics and chemistry without the intelligence on how to put it all together. IMO, believeing in intelligent design is nowhere remotely close to as big of a reach as thinking life's most complicated biological features developed over time by random selection.

(02-10-2018 12:43 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  Side note, ESPN did a video piece a couple days ago on notably strong G5 classes. They listed UCF, South Florida, App State, and Arkansas State.

https://twitter.com/AStateFB/status/961298536926134272

(02-10-2018 12:43 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  Side note, ESPN did a video piece a couple days ago on notably strong G5 classes. They listed UCF, South Florida, App State, and Arkansas State.

***Notably strong in the early signing period

(02-10-2018 01:47 AM)AppManDG Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 03:19 PM)AtlantaJag Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 12:36 PM)AppManDG Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 10:06 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 09:58 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  No I get your point, but you're missing mine. Some schools just get more out of the players. App is one of them, Boise is another.

Overall recruiting ranking DO provide a guide of who will be good in the future, yet a handful of programs continue to over perform their historical rankings.

We all get that point, so much so that's it's part of all our arguments. We know there are schools that overachieve because they have great coaching staffs. We are arguing against the "the recruiting rankings don't matter at all" crowd.

I've not seen one post saying recruiting doesn't matter. I've made lot's of posts saying you can't base everything on stars. First and foremost you absolutely must find players that fit your system and culture. You recruit potential and develop it. I keep a database of App's recruits star ratings. Excluding the last two signing classes, an overwhelming majority of our highest rated 3 star signees washed out of the program by their redshirt sophomore year. Conversely, some of the most decorated players in App history we're not highly regarded by the recruiting"experts". Many at the very bottom end of the rating scale. Some like to cite studies and articles, but it's hard to dispute solid data. I know, I know.... App is an exception. Explain it away all you like. Results speak for themselves.

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I'll give you this:
Your refusal to accept facts that contradict your predisposed way of thinking is consistent with your stance on evolution.

I do not refuse to accept facts, just BS. And you're good at slinging it.
Here are some facts for you.
There are fifty 24-7 analysts nationwide.
24-7 rated 3890 players in 2017.
Nationally 1,083,000 kids participated in high school football 2017.*
The senior class was roughly 250,000.
That is approximately 5,000 players per analyst, not including JUCO players.

*http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/research/estimated-probability-competing-college-athletics

My stance on evolution is quite simple. Life could not arise by physics and chemistry without the intelligence on how to put it all together. IMO, believeing in intelligent design is nowhere remotely close to as big of a reach as thinking life's most complicated biological features developed over time by random selection.

So you're assuming that there are 250,000 seniors that play. There aren't. High school sports participation is like a pyramid. Freshman have the greatest amount of participation and they get whittled down as they progress through high school due to kids realizing they aren't any good or that they want to specialize in another sport.

They also don't evaluate every single player. Probably a very small percentage.

(02-09-2018 08:02 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  I went back through the 2017 All-SBC team and looked at the 247 star ratings for each App State rep.

First Team
Jalin Moore (NR)
Ike Lewis (**)
Colby Gossett (**)
Beau Nunn (**)
Victor Johnson (**)
Tee Simms (**)
Eric Boggs (**)
Clifton Duck (**)

Second Team
Taylor Lamb (**)
Tae Hayes (**)

There is not a single three-star guy here. Not even one.
Lamb got a 3-star rating from 247 I believe but the composite was 2 stars. I couldn't find any rating for Moore.

So you're going to tell me that of the 15 three-star App signees listed in the 2014, 2015, and 2016 classes, not even one of those guys made the all-SBC team?

All outliers, amiright? Sorry guys, but AppManDG is right.

Twenty Five App players have been selected to All Sunbelt first & second teams, some multiple times, for a total of thirty three selections in three years.

First Team: Three Star - 1 / Two Star - 7 / NR Walk On - 4
Second Team: Three Star - 1 / Two Star - 11 / NR Walk On - 1

Four of the Two Star (three 1st team) players had the lowest score given of .700. The first team three star player was signed before App made the decision to move up. Two of the NR - Walk Ons are playing in the NFL.

That's a lot of outliers!

(02-10-2018 12:32 PM)Bobcat2013 Wrote:  

(02-10-2018 01:47 AM)AppManDG Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 03:19 PM)AtlantaJag Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 12:36 PM)AppManDG Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 10:06 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  We all get that point, so much so that's it's part of all our arguments. We know there are schools that overachieve because they have great coaching staffs. We are arguing against the "the recruiting rankings don't matter at all" crowd.

I've not seen one post saying recruiting doesn't matter. I've made lot's of posts saying you can't base everything on stars. First and foremost you absolutely must find players that fit your system and culture. You recruit potential and develop it. I keep a database of App's recruits star ratings. Excluding the last two signing classes, an overwhelming majority of our highest rated 3 star signees washed out of the program by their redshirt sophomore year. Conversely, some of the most decorated players in App history we're not highly regarded by the recruiting"experts". Many at the very bottom end of the rating scale. Some like to cite studies and articles, but it's hard to dispute solid data. I know, I know.... App is an exception. Explain it away all you like. Results speak for themselves.

Sent from my XT1635-01 using CSNbbs mobile app

I'll give you this:
Your refusal to accept facts that contradict your predisposed way of thinking is consistent with your stance on evolution.

I do not refuse to accept facts, just BS. And you're good at slinging it.
Here are some facts for you.
There are fifty 24-7 analysts nationwide.
24-7 rated 3890 players in 2017.
Nationally 1,083,000 kids participated in high school football 2017.*
The senior class was roughly 250,000.
That is approximately 5,000 players per analyst, not including JUCO players.

*http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/research/estimated-probability-competing-college-athletics

My stance on evolution is quite simple. Life could not arise by physics and chemistry without the intelligence on how to put it all together. IMO, believeing in intelligent design is nowhere remotely close to as big of a reach as thinking life's most complicated biological features developed over time by random selection.

So you're assuming that there are 250,000 seniors that play. There aren't. High school sports participation is like a pyramid. Freshman have the greatest amount of participation and they get whittled down as they progress through high school due to kids realizing they aren't any good or that they want to specialize in another sport.

They also don't evaluate every single player. Probably a very small percentage.

That is exactly the point I've been trying to make from day one. The sheer number tells you they can't possibly give proper attention to every prospect outside the can't miss list they get from college recruiters.

OK, you're splitting hairs, but I'll play along. Fifteen % of 1,083,000 is 162,450. Now each analyst only has 3,249 players to look at. Happy now?

(02-10-2018 12:38 PM)AppManDG Wrote:  

(02-09-2018 08:02 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  I went back through the 2017 All-SBC team and looked at the 247 star ratings for each App State rep.

First Team
Jalin Moore (NR)
Ike Lewis (**)
Colby Gossett (**)
Beau Nunn (**)
Victor Johnson (**)
Tee Simms (**)
Eric Boggs (**)
Clifton Duck (**)

Second Team
Taylor Lamb (**)
Tae Hayes (**)

There is not a single three-star guy here. Not even one.
Lamb got a 3-star rating from 247 I believe but the composite was 2 stars. I couldn't find any rating for Moore.

So you're going to tell me that of the 15 three-star App signees listed in the 2014, 2015, and 2016 classes, not even one of those guys made the all-SBC team?

All outliers, amiright? Sorry guys, but AppManDG is right.

Twenty Five App players have been selected to All Sunbelt first & second teams, some multiple times, for a total of thirty three selections in three years.

First Team: Three Star - 1 / Two Star - 7 / NR Walk On - 4
Second Team: Three Star - 1 / Two Star - 11 / NR Walk On - 1

Four of the Two Star (three 1st team) players had the lowest score given of .700. The first team three star player was signed before App made the decision to move up. Two of the NR - Walk Ons are playing in the NFL.

That's a lot of outliers!

This attitude is why the SBC is seen as the lowest G5 conference. We can't be satisfied with getting 2 stars and beating FCS OOC. We're not going to get a team in the NY 6 or even ranked with the #1 team recruiting in the 90s.

Yep App really struggled with UTk in 2016, great point. Troy couldn’t do anything versus LSU with a recruiting class in 90s. Keeping our coaches is likely a larger problem.

(02-11-2018 07:49 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Yep App really struggled with UTk in 2016, great point. Troy couldn’t do anything versus LSU with a recruiting class in 90s. Keeping our coaches is likely a larger problem.

Agreed. It's not about the star rating when they get there, but their development after...

(02-11-2018 07:49 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Yep App really struggled with UTk in 2016, great point. Troy couldn’t do anything versus LSU with a recruiting class in 90s. Keeping our coaches is likely a larger problem.

That's a G5 problem, not a Sun Belt problem. Even teams like Houston and UCF can't hang on to their coaches.

(02-10-2018 10:56 PM)glsjunior74 Wrote:  

(02-10-2018 12:38 PM)AppManDG Wrote:  

(02-09-2018 08:02 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  I went back through the 2017 All-SBC team and looked at the 247 star ratings for each App State rep.

First Team
Jalin Moore (NR)
Ike Lewis (**)
Colby Gossett (**)
Beau Nunn (**)
Victor Johnson (**)
Tee Simms (**)
Eric Boggs (**)
Clifton Duck (**)

Second Team
Taylor Lamb (**)
Tae Hayes (**)

There is not a single three-star guy here. Not even one.
Lamb got a 3-star rating from 247 I believe but the composite was 2 stars. I couldn't find any rating for Moore.

So you're going to tell me that of the 15 three-star App signees listed in the 2014, 2015, and 2016 classes, not even one of those guys made the all-SBC team?

All outliers, amiright? Sorry guys, but AppManDG is right.

Twenty Five App players have been selected to All Sunbelt first & second teams, some multiple times, for a total of thirty three selections in three years.

First Team: Three Star - 1 / Two Star - 7 / NR Walk On - 4
Second Team: Three Star - 1 / Two Star - 11 / NR Walk On - 1

Four of the Two Star (three 1st team) players had the lowest score given of .700. The first team three star player was signed before App made the decision to move up. Two of the NR - Walk Ons are playing in the NFL.

That's a lot of outliers!

This attitude is why the SBC is seen as the lowest G5 conference. We can't be satisfied with getting 2 stars and beating FCS OOC. We're not going to get a team in the NY 6 or even ranked with the #1 team recruiting in the 90s.

I'm fairly certain every coach in the Sunbelt is trying to recruit the most talented players they can, regardless of stars and rankings. I've yet to see a trophy handed out for finishing first in conference recruiting class standing.

(02-08-2018 12:01 PM)AppManDG Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 07:58 AM)JCGSU Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 12:54 AM)07pantheralum Wrote:  

(02-07-2018 05:58 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(02-07-2018 05:56 PM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  This board must have been pretty dull pre-2012

There was a time when a lot more cajuns posted on this board.

Meaning more incomprehensible gibberish? Got it...although JCGSU has taken up the slack with his complete rejection of punctuation. He's like the worst beat poet who ever lived.

Lol, so you not taking my bet either?

To recap, one year no posting if based on recent recruiting rankings or 24/7 team talent rankings for the G5 I take the top half of every conference based worthless rankings alone and you take the bottom half. Zero goes to last years records, coaching just worthless rankings. Which ever half has the higher winning % wins pretty simple.

All the rankings naysayers sure got quiet quick. AppManDG forgot how to type all of a sudden lol. He never lets anyone get the last word and poof gone.

Haven't gone anywhere. Simply doing things that are more important than arguing with a broken record. I'm just gonna sit back and enjoy watching App win games with all these lowly regarded signees and let the experts explain how App is the exception to the rule. Again...

Sent from my XT1635-01 using CSNbbs mobile app

One team has nothing to do with bet also App has not been out recruited by anyone in the Belt and has one win over a team that it could be argued had a talent advantage in a MAC team. So in four years in the FBS App has ONE win over a team that might be rated sort of significantly higher..

If recruit rankings are worthless for the G5 take the bet or shut up. Honestly either you believe they are meaningless or not. All this talk from the anecdotal evidence "experts" but to afraid to take a simple little bet.

Take the bottom half of each G5 conference based on recruiting rankings ALONE or just admit you are wrong because you are.

Yes there is going to be a handful of teams and a handful of players that out perform I still cant fathom how someone is so dense they dont get what it more relevant is what the vast majority of the other 130 teams do. There are literally thousands of kids that sign to play div I ball every year and all you "experts" do is bring up individual examples..and ignore what the other thousands did or will do lol.

(02-09-2018 12:28 PM)panama Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 07:46 PM)OsageJ Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 12:43 PM)ApexRedWolf Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 12:28 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 12:17 PM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  I'm just glad that Georgia Southern and soon Georgia State will be able to siphon off the talent that can be found in Georgia. Georgia is a lot like Texas and Florida in that it has an overabundance of talent that can support multiple FBS teams. For decades, there have only been 2 FBS teams in the state and several other schools in country recruit Georgia hard because they know there is high talent with low competition in the area. If Georgia Southern and Georgia State can close that pipeline and get the kids that would otherwise go to a P5 across the country to stay in state, we would be golden.

Georgia, Georgia Tech, Georgia State, and Georgia Southern should all push the narrative of staying and playing for your state and for your home to lock in all the in state talent we have. It would only help all four of us moving forward.

Georgia getting the #1 recruiting class really helps both of your schools. Neither of you are competing in any with Georgia and that allows some higher rated (by SBC standards) recruits to land at your schools. The same is true when Alabama and Auburn are good. We don't have to compete with them for players like we do when they're bad.

As bad as we dont want to admit it, that's the trend in Arkansas too. Thats why we were so sad to see Bielema go. Mediocrity was perfect. They werent good and we didnt have to fight so hard for in-state talent.

I think you have that backwards. When they are good they tend to look out of state more. I have loved the blow ups over there recently though.

We have not even touched the potential of instate and metro talent yet.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Nope not even close if GS or GSU did we would easily be in the 60's and not worrying about signing top Sun Belt classes we would be counting the P5's we out recruited.

The AAC has a turnover just like we do they just lose there coaches to the P5 and not other G5's yet they stay at the top of the G5 ratings every year.

So I went back through the first-team all-Sun Belt selections 2014-2017 and counted the star ratings of each one.

Of the 96 selections, 14 had 3-star ratings (about 15%).
From 2014-2016 about 25% of the conferences signees listed on 247 were 3-star guys.

Unless the attrition of 3-star guys is pretty big across the entire conference and much bigger than attrition for the two star guys at best stars are useless to predict all-conference awards and at worst two-stars actually are more likely to get first-team all-conference honors.

I also thought the number of 3-star signees by the entire conference by year was interesting...
2014: 39
2015: 77
2016: 72
2017: 71
2018: 94

(02-08-2018 12:48 PM)NCeagle Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 12:39 PM)AppManDG Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 12:02 PM)NCeagle Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 12:01 PM)AppManDG Wrote:  

(02-08-2018 07:58 AM)JCGSU Wrote:  Lol, so you not taking my bet either?

To recap, one year no posting if based on recent recruiting rankings or 24/7 team talent rankings for the G5 I take the top half of every conference based worthless rankings alone and you take the bottom half. Zero goes to last years records, coaching just worthless rankings. Which ever half has the higher winning % wins pretty simple.

All the rankings naysayers sure got quiet quick. AppManDG forgot how to type all of a sudden lol. He never lets anyone get the last word and poof gone.

Haven't gone anywhere. Simply doing things that are more important than arguing with a broken record. I'm just gonna sit back and enjoy watching App win games with all these lowly regarded signees and let the experts explain how App is the exception to the rule. Again...

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so you do admit that app IS the exception to the rule, correct?

No. That's the "experts" opinion.

Sent from my XT1635-01 using CSNbbs mobile app

so when you look at facts comparing recruiting rankings and school rankings, and see that app greatly over performs to their level of talent compared to the rest of college football, you consider that an opinion?

Interesting.

I take it you aren't in a field that involves analytics of any sort.

Nailed it....Awesome analysis and most Belt teams are closer in talent than most especially with NMSU and Idaho gone. I ran the last for year avgs and there is a log jam in the middle outside of the top two and bottom two almost no significant difference. It is indisputable the rankings are very reliable even if App pulled off and upset against.....Toledo....

(02-12-2018 09:57 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  So I went back through the first-team all-Sun Belt selections 2014-2017 and counted the star ratings of each one.

Of the 96 selections, 14 had 3-star ratings (about 15%).
From 2014-2016 about 25% of the conferences signees listed on 247 were 3-star guys.

Unless the attrition of 3-star guys is pretty big across the entire conference and much bigger than attrition for the two star guys at best stars are useless to predict all-conference awards and at worst two-stars actually are more likely to get first-team all-conference honors.

I also thought the number of 3-star signees by the entire conference by year was interesting...
2014: 39
2015: 77
2016: 72
2017: 71
2018: 94

Do you have any idea that the two star and three star rankings have numbers attached to them? Most Belt three stars are closer to a two than a four. I am pretty sure nobody is saying there is a huge difference in a .794 and a .795 recruit lol but a huge one in a .794 and .894 the .795 is going to a Belt team the .894 three star could be headed to AL...I know you knew that right?

Also basic stats question, was the amount of three and two star- populations the same if not raw numbers are meaningless. It is basically saying because there are more three and two star guys in the NFL then rankings are meaningless...