Assuming Florida State can get past UL Monroe next week, we will finish the regular season with a pretty clear separation between the G5 and P5.

G5 teams will have a record of 15-90 against P5 teams this year. That's a pretty flimsy 14%. And if you delve deeper, you find that those 15 wins came from the cream of the G5 crop. Those winners finish the regular season with an average of 8 wins, while the P5 teams they beat finish with an average of 4 wins each.

So, the better teams of the G5 can compete with the weaker teams of the P5. I think we knew that. In every one of those 15 wins, the G5 team finished with a better W-L record than the team they beat.

This year may be an anomaly. I haven't looked at recent prior years. But it sure is hard to make the case for including G5 champs as automatic qualifiers in any expanded playoff scenario.

(11-26-2017 04:44 PM)ken d Wrote:  Assuming Florida State can get past UL Monroe next week, we will finish the regular season with a pretty clear separation between the G5 and P5.

G5 teams will have a record of 15-90 against P5 teams this year. That's a pretty flimsy 14%. And if you delve deeper, you find that those 15 wins came from the cream of the G5 crop. Those winners finish the regular season with an average of 8 wins, while the P5 teams they beat finish with an average of 4 wins each.

So, the better teams of the G5 can compete with the weaker teams of the P5. I think we knew that. In every one of those 15 wins, the G5 team finished with a better W-L record than the team they beat.

This year may be an anomaly. I haven't looked at recent prior years. But it sure is hard to make the case for including G5 champs as automatic qualifiers in any expanded playoff scenario.

There is a flaw in your logic.

Today if say Arkansas State is recruiting against Arkansas State or North Texas vs Texas Tech or ECU vs. NC State there are number of advantages that Arkansas, NC State, and Texas Tech are going to have in recruiting based on the long-term work done in building their programs but those advantages also include, if we win the conference we are going to play in either the playoff, Orange, Sugar, or Fiesta Bowl.

Now those schools can get busy and deal with what they can deal with by trying to attract more fans, build nicer facilities, try to craft more attractive schedules and it is on them to do so.

What they cannot fix is that promise to recruits about what happens if they win the conference.

Arkansas State can run the table next year (Bama, UNLV, Tulsa, FCS SeMo) and if Navy runs the table as well, Arkansas State is going to play a CUSA team in New Orleans or a MAC team in Mobile.

That's a recruiting disadvantage they can't cure.

(11-26-2017 05:08 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 04:44 PM)ken d Wrote:  Assuming Florida State can get past UL Monroe next week, we will finish the regular season with a pretty clear separation between the G5 and P5.

G5 teams will have a record of 15-90 against P5 teams this year. That's a pretty flimsy 14%. And if you delve deeper, you find that those 15 wins came from the cream of the G5 crop. Those winners finish the regular season with an average of 8 wins, while the P5 teams they beat finish with an average of 4 wins each.

So, the better teams of the G5 can compete with the weaker teams of the P5. I think we knew that. In every one of those 15 wins, the G5 team finished with a better W-L record than the team they beat.

This year may be an anomaly. I haven't looked at recent prior years. But it sure is hard to make the case for including G5 champs as automatic qualifiers in any expanded playoff scenario.

There is a flaw in your logic.

Today if say Arkansas State is recruiting against Arkansas State or North Texas vs Texas Tech or ECU vs. NC State there are number of advantages that Arkansas, NC State, and Texas Tech are going to have in recruiting based on the long-term work done in building their programs but those advantages also include, if we win the conference we are going to play in either the playoff, Orange, Sugar, or Fiesta Bowl.

Now those schools can get busy and deal with what they can deal with by trying to attract more fans, build nicer facilities, try to craft more attractive schedules and it is on them to do so.

What they cannot fix is that promise to recruits about what happens if they win the conference.

Arkansas State can run the table next year (Bama, UNLV, Tulsa, FCS SeMo) and if Navy runs the table as well, Arkansas State is going to play a CUSA team in New Orleans or a MAC team in Mobile.

That's a recruiting disadvantage they can't cure.

Not sure what logic has to do with this. I just reported some data.

With the regular season nearly over, and with the remaining P5 games between highly ranked teams in their own conference, there shouldn't be much movement in overall conference rankings. With Sagarin one of the few rating services that give a numerical rating for every team, I analyzed the ratings for each FBS conference. To me, the results were mildly surprising.

Basically, there was very little difference among the P5 conferences in average strength. This was probably the closest year in a very long time. Three leagues had an average (rounded) rating of 78, and the other two finished at 77. What surprised me was the order they finished in. The ACC barely edged out the Big 12 and the Big Ten. At the bottom was the SEC, despite their having 5 teams ranked in the Top 20. Other than Georgia, the rest of the SEC East stank.

Here are the overall results:
...........................Rank.........Rank
Conf.....Rating.... 1-20.........21-40........Top 40

ACC........78............3................7.................10
B12........78............3................3...................6
B1G........78............4...............4...................8
PAC.........77...........3................4...................7
SEC.........77...........5................0...................5
ND.........................1.....................................1
AAC.........66...........1................1...................2
MW..........64...........0................1...................1
MAC........61............0................0...................0
USA.........57...........0................0...................0
SBC.........54...........0................0...................0

In the conference ratings, the FCS Missouri Valley Football Conference ranks just above the MAC with an average rating of 61.

These numbers will no doubt change a little after bowl season is over, and the ACC probably has the biggest risk of dropping with 10 teams likely bowling.

(11-26-2017 05:23 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 05:08 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 04:44 PM)ken d Wrote:  Assuming Florida State can get past UL Monroe next week, we will finish the regular season with a pretty clear separation between the G5 and P5.

G5 teams will have a record of 15-90 against P5 teams this year. That's a pretty flimsy 14%. And if you delve deeper, you find that those 15 wins came from the cream of the G5 crop. Those winners finish the regular season with an average of 8 wins, while the P5 teams they beat finish with an average of 4 wins each.

So, the better teams of the G5 can compete with the weaker teams of the P5. I think we knew that. In every one of those 15 wins, the G5 team finished with a better W-L record than the team they beat.

This year may be an anomaly. I haven't looked at recent prior years. But it sure is hard to make the case for including G5 champs as automatic qualifiers in any expanded playoff scenario.

There is a flaw in your logic.

Today if say Arkansas State is recruiting against Arkansas State or North Texas vs Texas Tech or ECU vs. NC State there are number of advantages that Arkansas, NC State, and Texas Tech are going to have in recruiting based on the long-term work done in building their programs but those advantages also include, if we win the conference we are going to play in either the playoff, Orange, Sugar, or Fiesta Bowl.

Now those schools can get busy and deal with what they can deal with by trying to attract more fans, build nicer facilities, try to craft more attractive schedules and it is on them to do so.

What they cannot fix is that promise to recruits about what happens if they win the conference.

Arkansas State can run the table next year (Bama, UNLV, Tulsa, FCS SeMo) and if Navy runs the table as well, Arkansas State is going to play a CUSA team in New Orleans or a MAC team in Mobile.

That's a recruiting disadvantage they can't cure.

Not sure what logic has to do with this. I just reported some data.

No you added an editorial comment applying the data to the playoff. That's not just reporting data.

(11-28-2017 10:02 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 05:23 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 05:08 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 04:44 PM)ken d Wrote:  Assuming Florida State can get past UL Monroe next week, we will finish the regular season with a pretty clear separation between the G5 and P5.

G5 teams will have a record of 15-90 against P5 teams this year. That's a pretty flimsy 14%. And if you delve deeper, you find that those 15 wins came from the cream of the G5 crop. Those winners finish the regular season with an average of 8 wins, while the P5 teams they beat finish with an average of 4 wins each.

So, the better teams of the G5 can compete with the weaker teams of the P5. I think we knew that. In every one of those 15 wins, the G5 team finished with a better W-L record than the team they beat.

This year may be an anomaly. I haven't looked at recent prior years. But it sure is hard to make the case for including G5 champs as automatic qualifiers in any expanded playoff scenario.

There is a flaw in your logic.

Today if say Arkansas State is recruiting against Arkansas State or North Texas vs Texas Tech or ECU vs. NC State there are number of advantages that Arkansas, NC State, and Texas Tech are going to have in recruiting based on the long-term work done in building their programs but those advantages also include, if we win the conference we are going to play in either the playoff, Orange, Sugar, or Fiesta Bowl.

Now those schools can get busy and deal with what they can deal with by trying to attract more fans, build nicer facilities, try to craft more attractive schedules and it is on them to do so.

What they cannot fix is that promise to recruits about what happens if they win the conference.

Arkansas State can run the table next year (Bama, UNLV, Tulsa, FCS SeMo) and if Navy runs the table as well, Arkansas State is going to play a CUSA team in New Orleans or a MAC team in Mobile.

That's a recruiting disadvantage they can't cure.

Not sure what logic has to do with this. I just reported some data.

No you added an editorial comment applying the data to the playoff. That's not just reporting data.

And you didn't show what logical flaw there was in that casual comment, which is merely an opinion. Are you suggesting that the data shows that a G5 champion should be guaranteed a spot in an expanded playoff, regardless of their record?

(11-28-2017 10:38 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 10:02 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 05:23 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 05:08 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 04:44 PM)ken d Wrote:  Assuming Florida State can get past UL Monroe next week, we will finish the regular season with a pretty clear separation between the G5 and P5.

G5 teams will have a record of 15-90 against P5 teams this year. That's a pretty flimsy 14%. And if you delve deeper, you find that those 15 wins came from the cream of the G5 crop. Those winners finish the regular season with an average of 8 wins, while the P5 teams they beat finish with an average of 4 wins each.

So, the better teams of the G5 can compete with the weaker teams of the P5. I think we knew that. In every one of those 15 wins, the G5 team finished with a better W-L record than the team they beat.

This year may be an anomaly. I haven't looked at recent prior years. But it sure is hard to make the case for including G5 champs as automatic qualifiers in any expanded playoff scenario.

There is a flaw in your logic.

Today if say Arkansas State is recruiting against Arkansas State or North Texas vs Texas Tech or ECU vs. NC State there are number of advantages that Arkansas, NC State, and Texas Tech are going to have in recruiting based on the long-term work done in building their programs but those advantages also include, if we win the conference we are going to play in either the playoff, Orange, Sugar, or Fiesta Bowl.

Now those schools can get busy and deal with what they can deal with by trying to attract more fans, build nicer facilities, try to craft more attractive schedules and it is on them to do so.

What they cannot fix is that promise to recruits about what happens if they win the conference.

Arkansas State can run the table next year (Bama, UNLV, Tulsa, FCS SeMo) and if Navy runs the table as well, Arkansas State is going to play a CUSA team in New Orleans or a MAC team in Mobile.

That's a recruiting disadvantage they can't cure.

Not sure what logic has to do with this. I just reported some data.

No you added an editorial comment applying the data to the playoff. That's not just reporting data.

And you didn't show what logical flaw there was in that casual comment, which is merely an opinion. Are you suggesting that the data shows that a G5 champion should be guaranteed a spot in an expanded playoff, regardless of their record?

I already explained.

(11-28-2017 11:54 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 10:38 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 10:02 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 05:23 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 05:08 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  There is a flaw in your logic.

Today if say Arkansas State is recruiting against Arkansas State or North Texas vs Texas Tech or ECU vs. NC State there are number of advantages that Arkansas, NC State, and Texas Tech are going to have in recruiting based on the long-term work done in building their programs but those advantages also include, if we win the conference we are going to play in either the playoff, Orange, Sugar, or Fiesta Bowl.

Now those schools can get busy and deal with what they can deal with by trying to attract more fans, build nicer facilities, try to craft more attractive schedules and it is on them to do so.

What they cannot fix is that promise to recruits about what happens if they win the conference.

Arkansas State can run the table next year (Bama, UNLV, Tulsa, FCS SeMo) and if Navy runs the table as well, Arkansas State is going to play a CUSA team in New Orleans or a MAC team in Mobile.

That's a recruiting disadvantage they can't cure.

Not sure what logic has to do with this. I just reported some data.

No you added an editorial comment applying the data to the playoff. That's not just reporting data.

And you didn't show what logical flaw there was in that casual comment, which is merely an opinion. Are you suggesting that the data shows that a G5 champion should be guaranteed a spot in an expanded playoff, regardless of their record?

I already explained.

Which part of your post explains why a G5 champion should have a guaranteed spot in an 8 team playoff?

I'm not sure the AFC deserves a guaranteed spot in the Super Bowl this year, but I digress.