until proven otherwise, I don't see any team within 2 touchdowns of us in the regular season this year.

(09-19-2017 09:19 AM)JMU08 Wrote:  It's really hard to tell who is good in the CAA. RU loses to Soft Houston. UNH rolls GSU only to get rolled by HC. VU survives a bad Lehigh team but plays Temple close. I think we beat Maine by 2 TDs, but I could still see a world where they finish tied for 2nd or 3rd in CAA play.

For maine to finish 2nd or 3rd, they'd probably have to win out, or lose no more than one conference game. That would likely involve them beating us and many other top teams they face. Very doubtful. They're a middle of the pack CAA team IMO.

Maine is one of those teams everyone always overrates each year and outside of their early 2010 performances where they made the playoffs or were close to doing so, they really haven't been a consistent factor.

(09-19-2017 09:28 AM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  until proven otherwise, I don't see any team within 2 touchdowns of us in the regular season this year.

Yes. I agree. Until proven otherwise.

Massey also agrees. We have no worse than an 86% chance of winning every remaining game.

Point spread as of this week:
UM - 21 pts
UD - 24 pts
VU - 17 pts
WM - 21 pts
UNH - 21 pts
URI - 28 pts
UR - 17 pts
Elon - 30 pts

I've noticed over the last two years that Massey is accurate more often then not. Everyone wants to write off computer predictors because they're not human, but that doesn't mean they're not accurate within a reasonable range. If anything, they've kind of underestimated our point spreads last season.

(09-19-2017 09:49 AM)Potomac Wrote:  

(09-19-2017 09:28 AM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  until proven otherwise, I don't see any team within 2 touchdowns of us in the regular season this year.

Yes. I agree. Until proven otherwise.

Massey also agrees. We have no worse than an 86% chance of winning every remaining game.

Point spread as of this week:
UM - 21 pts
UD - 24 pts
VU - 17 pts
WM - 21 pts
UNH - 21 pts
URI - 28 pts
UR - 17 pts
Elon - 30 pts

I've noticed over the last two years that Massey is accurate more often then not. Everyone wants to write off computer predictors because they're not human, but that doesn't mean they're not accurate within a reasonable range. If anything, they've kind of underestimated our point spreads last season.

I agree on this too. If we'd beaten ECU by, say, 6 points, then "ok, we can win a game against a bad FBS team." But we didn't just score more points, we *beat* them. As discussed, all they had for offense was pass interference. For each of the games on our schedule, everything would have to go right for our opponents to come close.

Until demonstrated otherwise, as everyone else says. :-)

That oblong ball bounces funny sometimes so anything is possible. I throw these items out there to consider and why I will stick by the Dukes winning big (predicted 52-10)...

1. The Dukes are a completely different team since the last time we faced Maine. Significantly improved that is - especially on the D side of the ball. For Maine to keep this within a 2-TD margin, that oblong ball will have to bounce funny in their favor a lot. Again, that's possible, but I wouldn't want to wager a ticket on it as a great strategy when in Vegas. Has Maine improved to the same level as the Dukes since our last meeting at their place a season ago?

2. Look at the matchups, the depth, etc. JMU has a decided advantage in every phase. I said the same thing going into the ECU game with the only one ECU might have an advantage being their WR's vs our DB's. Once they kick it off, nobody on that field gives a rat's butt (and most are unaware completely) about what the historical picture is in this series. The fact that Maine keeps games close with JMU or wins back when these players were in middle school is irrelevant. I'd love to know which matchups folks think Maine has an advantage over JMU? For example, their running game against our running D? Don't see it. Same for their passing game against our passing D. Maybe Maine's D will slow down one phase of our balanced offense (like ETSU did) and force us to go to our other potent segment of our balanced offense (like we did against ETSU)?

We'll see. Hopefully that oblong ball doesn't bounce in weird ways against the Dukes this Saturday. And, I would love to see just how dominant we can be on the scoreboard with a clean sheet game (read: no TO's, no return TD's allowed, etc.).

I expect this game to be competitive. I do have a lot of faith in our defense, but I do not think we will dominate the line of scrimmage on offensive and have to rely heavily on Schor and the receiving corps to move the ball. My prediction is a 21-13 JMU win.

If we're able to contain UM's RB Mack, they won't win. It's that simple. We've done a good job with Rush defense since after the UR game last season. Their offensive attack relies heavily on their rushing. Shut that down and they'll quickly become one dimensional.

The key for Maine will be getting their offense going. Our defense has been excellent the last 6 or so games and I don't seem them stopping now.

JMU - 35
Maine - 17

28-17

We gave up no long scoring drives to ECU with our first-team offense and they have A LOT more talent than Maine does on offense. Coaching may not be there for ECU, but to think that Maine is going to magically put up more than a touchdown or two "because Maine" is not something I'm willing to give into yet. The defense could have easily been sleepwalking through the last two games, but they didn't. They gave up no scores. None. And that was against crap competition. They'll be foaming at the mouth to start conference play. If they score more than 10-13 on our first-string offense I'll be surprised.

As for our offense...come on. 34, 52, 75. I expect this to be somewhere in between the ECU and ETSU scores for our offense. Mac being injured may the only thing holding us back from putting up 50. I'm not even going to list out our main weapons, because we have too many.

Like DD, until someone puts up a challenge to this team, I will favor us by at least 2-3 TDs in every game this year. EVERY game. Last year was the best team to put on a JMU uniform, and I'd say this team has started off the year as good or better than that one was at the end of the year. Yes, penalties and TOs are an issue, but our defense is playing lights out right now and we haven't had much dropoff, if any, on offense. Can't wait to see them get their first "real test" on Saturday. Mark me down as not worried.

Houston confirmed that Trai Sharp is available to play this saturday. He said he doesn't want to be anywhere else but with his teammates.

We should do something to honor Trai and his dad. I don't know what, and I don't want it to draw away from Uncle Ron, but I still feel like we should show him we're there.

I would bet we've been pretty vanilla with our defensive scheme the last two weeks too

at the end of last season, Trott was sending corners on blitzes, dropping LB's deep into coverage, stunting on the line, etc

i have seen none of that the last few weeks.

I'm sure he has some defensive wrinkles ready for CAA play.

I might have missed it last week (and admit I wasn't really looking closely for it), but does anybody know if we ever had any offensive sets that included both Carlton & Kloo? I believe Houston or perhaps it was one of the offensive coaches mentioned or hinted back in August about that option. That is, splitting Carlton out and Kloo in a traditional TE lineup at the end of the O-Line. Carlton is a big dude and a very difficult matchup for a corner (or safety for that matter). To have both of those guys out there at the same time creates a big "uh oh" for defenders.

Further, it adds another big blocker out in open space. I think it was Bill Walsh who liked to point out that the vast majority of big plays came from wideouts taking pride in and executing blocking downfield. So, having another big body out there not only potentially creates mismatches in coverage, but can help our running game spring loose if a Carlton (or Cheatham) can take out/down a safety blocking.

(09-19-2017 12:00 PM)DirtyDukes Wrote:  We should do something to honor Trai and his dad. I don't know what, and I don't want it to draw away from Uncle Ron, but I still feel like we should show him we're there.

aren't there a lot of people in section 109 on here? how about getting a sign together and holding it up so Trai can see it? I think signs are prohibited, but maybe they will allow that as an exception, especially if he just needs to see it once.

(09-19-2017 12:12 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  I would bet we've been pretty vanilla with our defensive scheme the last two weeks too

at the end of last season, Trott was sending corners on blitzes, dropping LB's deep into coverage, stunting on the line, etc

i have seen none of that the last few weeks.

I'm sure he has some defensive wrinkles ready for CAA play.

I am not sure about corner blitzes, but Jordan Brown has been blitzing a good bit. But I agree there are more wrinkles to come. No reason to show everything the first 3 weeks.

Excluding the student section general admission, which is listed as low, there are less than 600 tickets remaining throughout bridgeforth in all sections. Many are single tickets too.

Most tickets remaining are only in sections 7, 8, 401 and 402.

48-10
Tyler hits two FGs and the Defense gives up a TD on a short field after a TO.

38-20 ... a close one

(09-19-2017 10:21 AM)Potomac Wrote:  If we're able to contain UM's RB Mack, they won't win. It's that simple. We've done a good job with Rush defense since after the UR game last season. Their offensive attack relies heavily on their rushing. Shut that down and they'll quickly become one dimensional.

I think they're already one-dimensional. Shut down the run and they're no-dimensional.