Interesting statistic that a sportswriter mentioned on Twitter today: Nick Saban is the only current SEC coach to ever win a BCS or CFP bowl game.

Each other P5 conference has 5 head coaches who have won BCS/CFP games. (Some of them, like Richt or RichRod, won one before joining their current schools.)

But the interesting point isn't the other conferences; it's that the SEC is paying a lot of guys $5 million/year to fall short and then watch Alabama in the CFP every year.

When will one of these other SEC teams break through, and win the SEC and a CFP game, even for only one season? And which coach is going to be the first to get it done? Will it be someone who's not yet there? (I.e., if you want to answer, "the next Auburn coach after Malzahn" or "the next Tennessee coach after Butch" that's an acceptable answer.)

The point stands, of course, with regards to Alabama's dominance.

But you can't possibly pretend that 2013 Auburn "doesn't count". Make it to the national championship game, and lose by 3? That doesn't count? Come on ...


Would also submit that year 4 on is when you can truly hold a head coach accountable. How many current SEC coaches are past year 4, and haven't ever gotten into the BCS or CFP? Mullen is in his 9th at Miss St, went to the Orange Bowl once. Sumlin in his 6th at A&M, hasn't been to one (2012 they went to Cotton, but that was before the CFP).

Stoops, Jones, and Bielema are all in their 5th years. First two have been steadily improving ... nice new facilities at Kentucky as well, be interesting to watch them this year. Bielema hasn't made it over the hump yet.

I would also add that Bielema went to several Rose Bowls and won the B1G 3 times while at Wisconsin. I think that should count for something.

To the point, the problem with dethroning Saban is that he is unique. He's driven in a way even most obsessed coaches are not.

I would offer that a few SEC coaches have been fired/retired in the last few years simply because their programs were not measuring up to Bama. Now, that's an unreasonable standard to ask a coach to meet. Between the Bryant and Saban eras, even Bama was unable to meet its own standards most years. So some of these guys should really still be in their old jobs and that would bump these numbers up.

With that said, Saban's going to be around a while longer if for no more reason than he's the type of person that finds purpose in the game. Some ADs are going to have to be less reactionary and understand it's less about the "process" and more about a unique dynamic. Bama has been fortunate to have 2 such individuals in our history.

When Saban finally retires, however, then balance will likely return.

(08-17-2017 02:31 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I would offer that a few SEC coaches have been fired/retired in the last few years simply because their programs were not measuring up to Bama. Now, that's an unreasonable standard to ask a coach to meet. Between the Bryant and Saban eras, even Bama was unable to meet its own standards most years. So some of these guys should really still be in their old jobs and that would bump these numbers up.

I used to agree with the idea that it was unfair to hold these guys to impossible standards. But if you're paying a guy $5 million/year plus another $3 million/year for his staff, you're paying for high expectations.

And I don't know about keeping coaches around at that salary level if they're no longer winning big. Sure, LSU could have kept Miles, and Georgia could have kept Richt, but it's been 10 years since those guys last won a BCS game. (Same season, 2007.)

So back to the question: Which one of the current SEC head coaches other than Saban, if any, is going to be the first guy who wins the SEC and a CFP game?

It might be someone who isn't in the SEC yet, but if I have to pick one of the current head coaches, I'll go with McElwain at Florida.

(08-17-2017 02:07 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Interesting statistic that a sportswriter mentioned on Twitter today: Nick Saban is the only current SEC coach to ever win a BCS or CFP bowl game.

Each other P5 conference has 5 head coaches who have won BCS/CFP games. (Some of them, like Richt or RichRod, won one before joining their current schools.)

But the interesting point isn't the other conferences; it's that the SEC is paying a lot of guys $5 million/year to fall short and then watch Alabama in the CFP every year.

When will one of these other SEC teams break through, and win the SEC and a CFP game, even for only one season? And which coach is going to be the first to get it done? Will it be someone who's not yet there? (I.e., if you want to answer, "the next Auburn coach after Malzahn" or "the next Tennessee coach after Butch" that's an acceptable answer.)

The CFP is only 3 years old. What other conference has had 4 different schools win the national championship in the last 20 years? Saban has a dynasty. But Les Miles was forced out last year, Mark Richt meandered out of Georgia the same way he meandered through the years while he was there, Gary Pinkel left 3 years ago with cancer, and then there is Gus who has managed to underachieve because nobody on his staff could develop Quarterbacks.

I think Kirby Smart and Jim McElwain will have the Dogs and Gators back up to steam. We'll see what Coach O does this year. I think that falls into one of those meaningless statistics.

In fact I would go so far to say that thus far many of the first round CFP games have turned out to be duds but the finals have been fairly successful. It kind of makes me wonder how it is really any different from the BCS only we have those first two games before we get who we thought we would get to play for the finals.

I'd say the BCS bowls are afterthoughts now. The games count and there is no excuse for losing but the shine is definitely off of them.

(08-17-2017 03:44 PM)JRsec Wrote:  It kind of makes me wonder how it is really any different from the BCS only we have those first two games before we get who we thought we would get to play for the finals.

In other words, we still have the BCS, and now we also have the "plus one" game that many of the power brokers insisted 15 years ago was the only addition to the BCS that they would ever accept.

(08-17-2017 04:03 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-17-2017 03:44 PM)JRsec Wrote:  It kind of makes me wonder how it is really any different from the BCS only we have those first two games before we get who we thought we would get to play for the finals.

In other words, we still have the BCS, and now we also have the "plus one" game that many of the power brokers insisted 15 years ago was the only addition to the BCS that they would ever accept.

And we still have a committee picking the entrants. So....yeah, nothing is substantively different except they give a much cheaper trophy. The golden bud vase has replaced the crystal football. The bud vase has to be the tackiest, cheapest, and ugliest trophy ever given to a football national champion.

Anyway, back to the original topic...

(08-17-2017 03:44 PM)JRsec Wrote:  What other conference has had 4 different schools win the national championship in the last 20 years?

By saying "20 years" you're kind of making the writer's point, which is that, today in SEC football, everyone else is well behind Saban. Tennessee in 1998 was a very long time ago, and Fulmer's heyday at Tennessee is just as long gone as, say, Holtz at Notre Dame. Meyer won twice at Florida, but he's been at Ohio State for five years now.

Speaking of Ohio State, the comparison to them shows the difference. Meyer has done more at Ohio State than anyone else in the Big Ten recently, but he didn't even win the Big Ten last year. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State are all closer to Ohio State than anyone in the SEC is to the Tide, unless some SEC team greatly exceeds expectations this year or next.

If it's going to be in the next couple years, I think it has to be an East school that then gets "lucky" in the CCG. By that I mean they play absolutely lights out, as good a game as they'd play against Alabama if they played 10 times in a row, and Alabama has to play as bad a game as they'd play from 10 times in a row.

So to that end, the coaches I see either on the rise in the East or already at a fairly high level are: Florida, Tennessee, and Kentucky. The latter of which, I know sounds preposterous. But ... who knows? EDIT: I guess Georgia's coach had a pretty good year to start out, so probably in there too.

I try not to think about it.

I'm under no illusion that this will somehow last forever.

(08-17-2017 05:30 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Anyway, back to the original topic...

(08-17-2017 03:44 PM)JRsec Wrote:  What other conference has had 4 different schools win the national championship in the last 20 years?

By saying "20 years" you're kind of making the writer's point, which is that, today in SEC football, everyone else is well behind Saban. Tennessee in 1998 was a very long time ago, and Fulmer's heyday at Tennessee is just as long gone as, say, Holtz at Notre Dame. Meyer won twice at Florida, but he's been at Ohio State for five years now.

Speaking of Ohio State, the comparison to them shows the difference. Meyer has done more at Ohio State than anyone else in the Big Ten recently, but he didn't even win the Big Ten last year. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State are all closer to Ohio State than anyone in the SEC is to the Tide, unless some SEC team greatly exceeds expectations this year or next.

Well Auburn won one in 2010-1 and played for another in 2013-4. So I guess you could say that within the last 7 years there have only been 2. But we have won 8 of the last 11 national championships. But, whatever. Yes Alabama has dominated. 2 years ago was our low ebb and last year was a step back toward normalcy. I think we have a considerably healthier top 5 heading into this season, but we will see.

(08-17-2017 02:46 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-17-2017 02:31 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I would offer that a few SEC coaches have been fired/retired in the last few years simply because their programs were not measuring up to Bama. Now, that's an unreasonable standard to ask a coach to meet. Between the Bryant and Saban eras, even Bama was unable to meet its own standards most years. So some of these guys should really still be in their old jobs and that would bump these numbers up.

I used to agree with the idea that it was unfair to hold these guys to impossible standards. But if you're paying a guy $5 million/year plus another $3 million/year for his staff, you're paying for high expectations.

And I don't know about keeping coaches around at that salary level if they're no longer winning big. Sure, LSU could have kept Miles, and Georgia could have kept Richt, but it's been 10 years since those guys last won a BCS game. (Same season, 2007.)

So back to the question: Which one of the current SEC head coaches other than Saban, if any, is going to be the first guy who wins the SEC and a CFP game?

It might be someone who isn't in the SEC yet, but if I have to pick one of the current head coaches, I'll go with McElwain at Florida.

I don't know that I would pick anyone in the current crop although I agree McElwain has potential. Eventually, he's going to have to start bringing in a bigger share of the elite recruits though if he's really going to be on the same level with Saban.

To the point about expectations, I get that these guys are making a ton of money and other than the revenue the sport is bringing in now, I'm not sure why some of these guys are in the stratosphere they're in. Perhaps it comes down to poor decisions by athletic directors.

Saban's first contract in 2007 was worth $4M a year and he was certainly worth it, but that was considered exceptional money at the time. I suspect that some of these Ads believe that just because you pay big money automatically guarantees a better product. That is not necessarily the case.

The quick answer? As long as Saban wants them to be.

McElwain & Coach O seems to be the two likeliest out of the current group. LSU was playing some great football at the end of last season.

I don't understand why the SEC went with so many rookie/unproven coaches & paying them elite salaries. With their $ & reputation they should have been able to get proven coaches & not be the proving ground for the up & coming.


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(08-20-2017 08:30 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  McElwain & Coach O seems to be the two likeliest out of the current group. LSU was playing some great football at the end of last season.

I don't understand why the SEC went with so many rookie/unproven coaches & paying them elite salaries. With their $ & reputation they should have been able to get proven coaches & not be the proving ground for the up & coming.


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You just hit upon a key component of Saban's success. Most of the guys who have been doing it as long as he has are getting out. Saban vs rookie = dominance. Saban vs Meyer = competitiveness.

We have some young up and comers but they really aren't that young. Fisher, Swinney and Gundy are all experienced now and have done their time as assistants and suffered through their rookie years to get where they are.

Because of the dearth of coaching talent, the lack of fundamental skills being taught in high school, and the stressful nature of recruiting many older coaches have given up the stress in favor of a healthier retirement. And thanks to the ultimate rise in salaries over the last 3 decades they could afford to leave.

The SEC and Big 10 will pay to snap up the 50 somethings with talent in the coming years. But the SEC has long suffered from the notion of putting its faith in the "coaching family tree". We suffered in the late 70's and early 80's by believing you had to hire a Bear Bryant disciple if you wanted to succeed. The only problem was they weren't Bear! There were some good Bryant disciples, but none of them achieved at the level of Bryant. Bear was a good fundamental coach, had a great eye for talent, but had that rare quality of also having a great eye for coaches. His real genius was in learning how to be an administrator of coaches while remaining a motivator of young men. And like a few other great coaches, like Rockne and Neyland, whose success spanned decades, he wasn't afraid of innovation or the total revamping of schemes he had once relied upon but which had become outdated.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a coaching seed change when the spread dies. Now to Nick's credit he too possesses the ability to manage a staff, motivate players, and thus far seems willing to adapt or change his schemes. He'll last as long as he wants to coach. But like Stoops at OU he may also just as easily decide that he has enough and finally starts realize it's time to spend and enjoy what he has earned.

(08-17-2017 02:31 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I would also add that Bielema went to several Rose Bowls and won the B1G 3 times while at Wisconsin. I think that should count for something.

To the point, the problem with dethroning Saban is that he is unique. He's driven in a way even most obsessed coaches are not.

I would offer that a few SEC coaches have been fired/retired in the last few years simply because their programs were not measuring up to Bama. Now, that's an unreasonable standard to ask a coach to meet. Between the Bryant and Saban eras, even Bama was unable to meet its own standards most years. So some of these guys should really still be in their old jobs and that would bump these numbers up.

With that said, Saban's going to be around a while longer if for no more reason than he's the type of person that finds purpose in the game. Some ADs are going to have to be less reactionary and understand it's less about the "process" and more about a unique dynamic. Bama has been fortunate to have 2 such individuals in our history.

When Saban finally retires, however, then balance will likely return.

This is a good point.

I have a friend who's nearing the end of his NFL career. Very likable, extremely smart, and a heckuva leader. He'd be an outstanding coach. I asked him if he was going to go into coaching, and he said no because he doesn't want to work 80 hour weeks.

I find it fascinating that coaching has become so competitive that the only people who can get into it are those who are willing to sacrifice their entire life for coaching.

Until Saban either retires, or loses his grip (the older you get the more gap between you and your staff, it's what eventually does in legendary coaches), or the rotating SEC scandal about paying players to pick their schools hits Tuscaloosa (most recent hit are the two Mississippi schools).

I think Saban does not want to coach until he loses his grip, as happened to guys like Joe Paterno, Bobby Bowdon and before Woody Hayes. I see him retiring at 68 or 69, not carrying it on into his 70s. So 3 more years. I don't know that he wants to live in a big city, as he seems more comfortable in a college town. But an NFL executive spot (many teams) is waiting for him if he wants after Alabama.

(08-25-2017 02:14 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Until Saban either retires, or loses his grip (the older you get the more gap between you and your staff, it's what eventually does in legendary coaches), or the rotating SEC scandal about paying players to pick their schools hits Tuscaloosa (most recent hit are the two Mississippi schools).

I think Saban does not want to coach until he loses his grip, as happened to guys like Joe Paterno, Bobby Bowdon and before Woody Hayes. I see him retiring at 68 or 69, not carrying it on into his 70s. So 3 more years. I don't know that he wants to live in a big city, as he seems more comfortable in a college town. But an NFL executive spot (many teams) is waiting for him if he wants after Alabama.

And just how do you think it is that Urban and Harbaugh are competing for recruits in the Southeast and Southwest? The game is played the same by everyone recruiting those areas. It's just that coaches like Saban and Meyer already have the goods on others, and other have the goods on them. So it abides by mutual consent to do no harm. While the means of coercion have changed, the reality of it remains the same as it was when I checked up allegations, and scrutinized the pursuit of top recruits.

(08-25-2017 02:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-25-2017 02:14 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Until Saban either retires, or loses his grip (the older you get the more gap between you and your staff, it's what eventually does in legendary coaches), or the rotating SEC scandal about paying players to pick their schools hits Tuscaloosa (most recent hit are the two Mississippi schools).

I think Saban does not want to coach until he loses his grip, as happened to guys like Joe Paterno, Bobby Bowdon and before Woody Hayes. I see him retiring at 68 or 69, not carrying it on into his 70s. So 3 more years. I don't know that he wants to live in a big city, as he seems more comfortable in a college town. But an NFL executive spot (many teams) is waiting for him if he wants after Alabama.

And just how do you think it is that Urban and Harbaugh are competing for recruits in the Southeast and Southwest? The game is played the same by everyone recruiting those areas. It's just that coaches like Saban and Meyer already have the goods on others, and other have the goods on them. So it abides by mutual consent to do no harm. While the means of coercion have changed, the reality of it remains the same as it was when I checked up allegations, and scrutinized the pursuit of top recruits.

Huh? I think another SEC school will rise up with a young coach or Clemson will eclipse them all. I don't see the inevitable decline of an older coach having any impact on the relative strength of any conference or other program. Somebody is always getting better.

I just meant as coaches get older it gets harder and harder to keep the respect of your subordinates and you don't catch everything going on behind your back like you did when you were younger. The mind gets progressively slower with age. Even Bear Bryant was not the same figure his final couple years he was prior. I do not think Saban in immune to effects of age. But I also think he is smart enough to recognize when his edge is coming off, so he will retire while still dominant, and able to pick his successor - stay too long you lose that (think the Florida State situation -- Penn State is a bit extreme).

70 seems to me a good age to step away, 2 years later than most people retire, and when he'll be as much as twice the age of some of his competitors, even in the SEC. I simply see Saban as a man with the good sense to not put in two or three meh years where the media is buzzing about his replacement, as is almost inevitable when he hits 71 and 72.

What has that to do with Harbaugh (who never lasts more than 5 years anywhere) or Meyer?

(08-25-2017 07:10 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(08-25-2017 02:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-25-2017 02:14 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Until Saban either retires, or loses his grip (the older you get the more gap between you and your staff, it's what eventually does in legendary coaches), or the rotating SEC scandal about paying players to pick their schools hits Tuscaloosa (most recent hit are the two Mississippi schools).

I think Saban does not want to coach until he loses his grip, as happened to guys like Joe Paterno, Bobby Bowdon and before Woody Hayes. I see him retiring at 68 or 69, not carrying it on into his 70s. So 3 more years. I don't know that he wants to live in a big city, as he seems more comfortable in a college town. But an NFL executive spot (many teams) is waiting for him if he wants after Alabama.

And just how do you think it is that Urban and Harbaugh are competing for recruits in the Southeast and Southwest? The game is played the same by everyone recruiting those areas. It's just that coaches like Saban and Meyer already have the goods on others, and other have the goods on them. So it abides by mutual consent to do no harm. While the means of coercion have changed, the reality of it remains the same as it was when I checked up allegations, and scrutinized the pursuit of top recruits.

Huh? I think another SEC school will rise up with a young coach or Clemson will eclipse them all. I don't see the inevitable decline of an older coach having any impact on the relative strength of any conference or other program. Somebody is always getting better.

I just meant as coaches get older it gets harder and harder to keep the respect of your subordinates and you don't catch everything going on behind your back like you did when you were younger. The mind gets progressively slower with age. Even Bear Bryant was not the same figure his final couple years he was prior. I do not think Saban in immune to effects of age. But I also think he is smart enough to recognize when his edge is coming off, so he will retire while still dominant, and able to pick his successor - stay too long you lose that (think the Florida State situation -- Penn State is a bit extreme).

70 seems to me a good age to step away, 2 years later than most people retire, and when he'll be as much as twice the age of some of his competitors, even in the SEC. I simply see Saban as a man with the good sense to not put in two or three meh years where the media is buzzing about his replacement, as is almost inevitable when he hits 71 and 72.

What has that to do with Harbaugh (who never lasts more than 5 years anywhere) or Meyer?

The post was in reference to the "rotating paying of players reference". I was merely pointing out that all of the players, including those in the North, are a part of that hypocrisy and that Urban and Harbaugh have learned how to play that game in order to land key Southern and Southwestern recruits. Since all of the coaches know what each other has done it serves no ones interest to bring it up.

Freeze never had control of his program and was horribly amateurish in his attempts to play catch up. Therefore they are going to get leveled. Urban and Saban are smart enough not to start wars in which they would suffer collateral damage. Freeze was ultimately ratted out by his players who flashed cash for signing on Utube and with the NFL draft night fiasco.