(07-23-2017 10:10 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote: (07-23-2017 09:05 PM)JRsec Wrote: ESPN has all of, or controlling interest in, the rights of the AAC, MAC, ACC, and SEC. The Big 12 is a 50/50 split with FOX with T3 rights being retained by the schools...
If JR is correct, ESPN's next move (logically) would be to pull some of the Fox teams in Texas and Oklahoma over to the ESPN red, thus shutting Fox out of the South altogether. Combine that with most of the East coast and you have a nice portfolio for ESPN.
That's exactly what I have been saying. I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility that ESPN could wind up with all of the P5 and top G5 product in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas. If they wanted to they could land all of the Big 12 and split them between the AAC, ACC, and SEC easily enough.
The question in my mind however is whether or not ESPN might still make a play for the Big 10? If they helped the Big 10 land Texas and Kansas (two AAU schools giving the Big 10 the Southern Exposure they want could they possibly land the majority of Big 10 rights? If the Big 12 is dissolved, and the Big 10 and SEC under majority ESPN control what does N.D. do? That will be a mighty narrow corner they'd be painted into.
With those Big 10 states and the MAC already in hand ESPN would own it all except the PAC and the West in general and they lease 50% of the PAC content already.
Face it. FOX has major internal issues. FOX Sports is undergoing leadership changes, and the Big 10 can't be very happy with FOX numbers. And FOX is the poorest positioned network for providing inventory to streamers. And that doesn't even touch the fact that they are essentially shut out of the Southeast and Atlantic Coast already.
But either way ESPN is the only network that can place all 10 Big 12 schools, dissolve the conference, and gain the advertising leverage they want, and place the brands where they can do their conferences the most good.
I think that puts a lot of pressure on the Big 10. They need Southern recruiting presence. They need brands for football. And they have to do it within academic parameters. Add the fact that they may be divesting the BTN and it gives ESPN a golden opportunity once the FOX contract expires in 6 years.
Think of the multitude of options for finishing the realignment for the ACC, SEC, and Big 10 that could be put into play should ESPN be the arbiter.
And with the AAC they are the only network with a way to clean up those not making the other three conferences.
So if the Big 10 stays the course with FOX ESPN will likely land Texas in either the SEC or ACC. If the Big 10 wants to play ball then Texas and Kansas isn't out of the question.
Why would ESPN want to do this? Can you imagine the number of viewers there would be for the RRR in Dallas if everyone in the Big 10 and SEC were tuned in for the game? Texas and Texas A&M ditto. Oklahoma and Nebraska ditto. Kansas and Missouri not as big but a lot bigger than it was in the Big 12. The audience numbers would rival some big bowl games easily. And more importantly it would remain relatively balanced between the SEC and Big 10 and would eliminate any threat to the ACC to have both the SEC and Big 10 in the family.
In order for Texas and Oklahoma to have two annual Big 10 / SEC match ups then the SEC would have to take one for the Mouse. I would think that Bedlam would be the deal for OU. So we take the Oklahoma pair. With 9 conference games and two dedicated to other P5 OOC games, that leaves the one game that provides the 6th or 7th game on the home schedule that pleases the A.D..
So ESPN gets 11 P5 games out of each school in those 3 conferences. They get huge rivalry games to tie in the two most rabid fan bases in the nation, they quite probably land the Irish for the ACC and pick up more football props for them with WVU. Then they raise the pay level for the AAC and elevate them so that games against the AAC count as P games and the AAC is also elevated in consideration for the CFP. Beyond the GOR none of the schools in Big 12 have reason to sue, and the best candidates for promotion into a P5 conference get elevated as a unit.
Will it happen? Maybe, maybe not. But at least there is a reason now to consider it possible.
And if it doesn't happen then ESPN makes a push to control Texas and Oklahoma anyway.
And BTW Mark, ESPN and FOX split the T1 and T2 of the Big 12 50/50 so those logos in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas are already half ESPN with T3 rights of Texas and Kansas with the Mouse. And all of the PAC is a 50/50 split. So your map, while a nice visual, gives FOX way too much credit for split properties.