(06-16-2019 08:14 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(06-16-2019 02:44 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Here's a scenario: the ACC only musters enough votes for Miami leading into the 2004 season. BC, VT, and Cuse don't have enough support.

The Big East gets back into Florida with USF and there is no split plan.

C-USA stays intact with the exception of Army dropping out. UCF joins, creating a 10/14 hybrid.

The WAC keeps Rice, Tulsa, UTEP, and SMU. The MAC keeps Marshall and picks up Temple as an affiliate. NMSU stays a full SBC member but they drop Idaho and Utah St as affiliates once Troy, FAU, and FIU start play.

Fast forward to 2010-2013. VT has had some excellent years in the Big East (actually BC, WVU, and Rutgers were all pretty competitive too) making themselves a prime expansion target, potentially joining the SEC to balance the TAMU but with the ACC having some very weak seasons between 2004-2010 some of the ACC schools might be prime for a move too, potentially changing everything.

CUSA will likely grab another couple schools to reach 12 FB members and have a CCG, even if the ACC doesn't.

Plausible but that puts them at 12/16. Your options are:

UTEP: distant
Tulsa: tiny market, tiny school
SMU: market duplication
Rice: Market duplication
Marshall: tiny market

Louisville is still in this league so they are going to be picky about basketball. They might be able to come to a consensus on a pair of them but my money is not.

There's an outside chance that the Big East goes to 10 in football with Louisville and Cincy too but I think they stick with the minimum. It's too bad because Louisvilee came of age when they got the call up.

(06-16-2019 08:14 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(06-16-2019 02:44 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Here's a scenario: the ACC only musters enough votes for Miami leading into the 2004 season. BC, VT, and Cuse don't have enough support.

The Big East gets back into Florida with USF and there is no split plan.

C-USA stays intact with the exception of Army dropping out. UCF joins, creating a 10/14 hybrid.

The WAC keeps Rice, Tulsa, UTEP, and SMU. The MAC keeps Marshall and picks up Temple as an affiliate. NMSU stays a full SBC member but they drop Idaho and Utah St as affiliates once Troy, FAU, and FIU start play.

Fast forward to 2010-2013. VT has had some excellent years in the Big East (actually BC, WVU, and Rutgers were all pretty competitive too) making themselves a prime expansion target, potentially joining the SEC to balance the TAMU but with the ACC having some very weak seasons between 2004-2010 some of the ACC schools might be prime for a move too, potentially changing everything.

CUSA will likely grab another couple schools to reach 12 FB members and have a CCG, even if the ACC doesn't.

Plausible but that puts them at 12/16. Your options are:

UTEP: distant
Tulsa: tiny market, tiny school
SMU: market duplication
Rice: Market duplication
Marshall: tiny market

Louisville is still in this league so they are going to be picky about basketball. They might be able to come to a consensus on a pair of them but my money is not.

There's an outside chance that the Big East goes to 10 in football with Louisville and Cincy too but I think they stick with the minimum. It's too bad because Louisvilee came of age when they got the call up.

(06-16-2019 09:12 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(06-16-2019 08:14 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(06-16-2019 02:44 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Here's a scenario: the ACC only musters enough votes for Miami leading into the 2004 season. BC, VT, and Cuse don't have enough support.

The Big East gets back into Florida with USF and there is no split plan.

C-USA stays intact with the exception of Army dropping out. UCF joins, creating a 10/14 hybrid.

The WAC keeps Rice, Tulsa, UTEP, and SMU. The MAC keeps Marshall and picks up Temple as an affiliate. NMSU stays a full SBC member but they drop Idaho and Utah St as affiliates once Troy, FAU, and FIU start play.

Fast forward to 2010-2013. VT has had some excellent years in the Big East (actually BC, WVU, and Rutgers were all pretty competitive too) making themselves a prime expansion target, potentially joining the SEC to balance the TAMU but with the ACC having some very weak seasons between 2004-2010 some of the ACC schools might be prime for a move too, potentially changing everything.

CUSA will likely grab another couple schools to reach 12 FB members and have a CCG, even if the ACC doesn't.

Plausible but that puts them at 12/16. Your options are:

UTEP: distant
Tulsa: tiny market, tiny school
SMU: market duplication
Rice: Market duplication
Marshall: tiny market

Louisville is still in this league so they are going to be picky about basketball. They might be able to come to a consensus on a pair of them but my money is not.

There's an outside chance that the Big East goes to 10 in football with Louisville and Cincy too but I think they stick with the minimum. It's too bad because Louisvilee came of age when they got the call up.

TCU goes to the MWC, so that's an opening for SMU. They took Rice in real life despite the market duplication, so I'd guess they're in. It's a tossup for FB #12. Maybe Tulsa?

East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, East Carolina, Louisville, Memphis, UAB
West: Houston, Rice, SMU, Southern Miss, Tulane, Tulsa
Non-FB: Charlotte, DePaul, Marquette, St. Louis

TCU probably stays in C-USA with Cincy and Louisville as those 3 would be a formidible force and playing Eastern/Central Time schools is preferable to Mountain/Pacific.

If the MWC wants a ninth in 2005 they are going to have to take Boise St from the WAC, who then backfills with Utah St.

It's 2010 and the Big Ten and Pac 10 are both on the prowl:

The Big Ten invites Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Missouri

The PAC 10 adds Colorado

What happens to the rest? Can the Big Ten lure Texas and TAMU for 16? Does TAMU stil go to the SEC and if so who is their dancing partner?

How does the Big 12 rebuild or does it?

(11-22-2017 11:52 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Here's a possible alternate timeline for a Pac-16 scenario:

2011
Colorado from Big 12 to Pac-12
Nebraska from Big 12 to Big Ten
Utah from MWC to Pac-12

2012
Central Florida from C-USA to Big 12
Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Rutgers, South Florida, West Virginia from Big East to Big 12
Missouri, Texas A&M from Big 12 to SEC
Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech from Big 12 to Pac-16
Pittsburgh, Syracuse from Big East to ACC
TCU from MWC to Big 12

Big 12
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Rutgers, South Florida, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, TCU

2013
Butler (NFB), Xavier (NFB) from A-10 to Big East
Creighton (NFB) from MVC to Big East
Notre Dame (NFB) from Big East to ACC

2014
Houston from C-USA to Big 12
Louisville from Big 12 to ACC
Maryland from ACC to Big Ten
Navy (FB) from FBS Ind to Big 12
Rutgers from Big 12 to Big Ten

~~~~~~

FBS 2018

Same as in our timeline: ACC, Big Ten, SEC, MWC

Pac-16
East Pod: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
North Pod: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South Pod: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
West Pod: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC
(pods alternate biennially between Northeast/Southwest and Northwest/Southeast Divisions)

Big 12
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Iowa State, South Florida, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Houston, Kansas, Kansas State, Navy* (Patriot), TCU

C-USA
East: Charlotte, East Carolina, FIU, Marshall, Memphis, Southern Miss, UAB
West: Louisiana Tech, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP, UTSA

MAC
East: Akron, Buffalo, Kent State, Massachusetts* (A-10), Miami-OH, Ohio, Temple* (A-10)
West: Ball State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan

Sun Belt
East: FAU, Georgia State, Middle Tennessee, South Alabama, Troy, Western Kentucky
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State* (WAC), North Texas, Texas State
Non-FB: Little Rock

FBS Ind
Army* (Patriot), BYU* (WCC), Liberty* (ASUN), Notre Dame* (ACC)

* = football only (primary conference)

Revised to account for the departure of UConn to the Big East. Here Memphis moves from CUSA to the Big 12 to replace UConn, MTSU from the Sun Belt to CUSA, and App State from FCS to the Sun Belt, while UConn goes FBS indy (for now).

FBS 2020

Same as in our timeline: ACC, Big Ten, SEC, MWC

Pac-16
East Pod: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
North Pod: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South Pod: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
West Pod: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC
(pods alternate biennially between Northeast/Southwest and Northwest/Southeast Divisions)

Big 12
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Memphis, South Florida, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Houston, Kansas, Kansas State, Navy* (Patriot), TCU

C-USA
East: Charlotte, East Carolina, FIU, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss, UAB
West: Louisiana Tech, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP, UTSA

MAC
East: Akron, Buffalo, Kent State, Massachusetts* (A-10), Miami-OH, Ohio, Temple* (A-10)
West: Ball State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan

Sun Belt
East: Appalachian State, FAU, Georgia State, South Alabama, Troy, Western Kentucky
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State* (WAC), North Texas, Texas State
Non-FB: Little Rock

FBS Ind
Army* (Patriot), BYU* (WCC), Connecticut* (Big East), Liberty* (ASUN), Notre Dame* (ACC)

* = football only (primary conference)

(06-20-2019 07:27 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  It's 2010 and the Big Ten and Pac 10 are both on the prowl:

The Big Ten invites Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Missouri

The PAC 10 adds Colorado

What happens to the rest? Can the Big Ten lure Texas and TAMU for 16? Does TAMU stil go to the SEC and if so who is their dancing partner?

How does the Big 12 rebuild or does it?

I don't know if OU takes that invite, in which case the Texas schools are even less likely. A&M seemed to have its heart set out on the SEC. I think OU and UT stick with the Big 12 and rebuild as in our timeline. So the Pac acquires Colorado and Utah, the SEC picks up A&M and WVU, the Big 12 gets TCU and Louisville, the Big Ten takes Nebraska, Missouri, and UMD, and the ACC brings aboard Pitt, Syracuse, and Rutgers (plus ND as a partial).

Here’s an old time realignment change that might have had a huge impact on college sports:

In 1933 13 schools left the SoCon to form the SEC. The ones who stayed behind were:

Maryland, UVA, VT, UNC, NC St, Duke, Clemson, South Carolina, Washington & Lee, & VMI

Those 10 soon added 7 others—mostly small privates. The South Carolina and Tobacco Road schools were frequently at odds with each other. This carried over to the ACC when it was founded in the 1950s too.

But what if Clemson and S.C. had been part of the SEC at its founding? They’d Already have 12 schools in 1991. They could have still pursued Arkansas and FSU that year.

The bigger question mark is what happens to Tobacco Road? Maybe we get an East Coast League that stretches from Boston to NC (and maybe on to Atlanta or Miami)?

(07-18-2019 08:59 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Here’s an old time realignment change that might have had a huge impact on college sports:

In 1933 13 schools left the SoCon to form the SEC. The ones who stayed behind were:

Maryland, UVA, VT, UNC, NC St, Duke, Clemson, South Carolina, Washington & Lee, & VMI

Those 10 soon added 7 others—mostly small privates. The South Carolina and Tobacco Road schools were frequently at odds with each other. This carried over to the ACC when it was founded in the 1950s too.

But what if Clemson and S.C. had been part of the SEC at its founding? They’d Already have 12 schools in 1991. They could have still pursued Arkansas and FSU that year.

The bigger question mark is what happens to Tobacco Road? Maybe we get an East Coast League that stretches from Boston to NC (and maybe on to Atlanta or Miami)?

Without the South Carolina schools would they have added Georgia Tech? If the ACC had been weaker would Georgia Tech have joined them in '78? Either way they don't get Florida State. There wouldn't have been any football first schools. If anything the assumption might be that the Big East would have raided the ACC instead of the other way around.

(07-18-2019 09:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-18-2019 08:59 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Here’s an old time realignment change that might have had a huge impact on college sports:

In 1933 13 schools left the SoCon to form the SEC. The ones who stayed behind were:

Maryland, UVA, VT, UNC, NC St, Duke, Clemson, South Carolina, Washington & Lee, & VMI

Those 10 soon added 7 others—mostly small privates. The South Carolina and Tobacco Road schools were frequently at odds with each other. This carried over to the ACC when it was founded in the 1950s too.

But what if Clemson and S.C. had been part of the SEC at its founding? They’d Already have 12 schools in 1991. They could have still pursued Arkansas and FSU that year.

The bigger question mark is what happens to Tobacco Road? Maybe we get an East Coast League that stretches from Boston to NC (and maybe on to Atlanta or Miami)?

Without the South Carolina schools would they have added Georgia Tech? If the ACC had been weaker would Georgia Tech have joined them in '78? Either way they don't get Florida State. There wouldn't have been any football first schools. If anything the assumption might be that the Big East would have raided the ACC instead of the other way around.

Those are my thoughts as well. I think the SEC goes to 14 in 1991 with the Hogs and Noles. GT still goes Indy and I think it becomes an incredibly regrettable decision. Instead of the Big East I think we get the Joe P Conference as Maryland would be a strong advocate for that alliance:

BC, Cuse, Pitt, Penn St, Rutgers, WVU
Maryland, UVA, VT, UNC, NC St, GT, Miami

I realize that’s 13 so I imagine someone ends up being an odd man out. I don’t think Duke and WF get to come along on this ride.

(07-18-2019 09:13 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(07-18-2019 09:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-18-2019 08:59 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Here’s an old time realignment change that might have had a huge impact on college sports:

In 1933 13 schools left the SoCon to form the SEC. The ones who stayed behind were:

Maryland, UVA, VT, UNC, NC St, Duke, Clemson, South Carolina, Washington & Lee, & VMI

Those 10 soon added 7 others—mostly small privates. The South Carolina and Tobacco Road schools were frequently at odds with each other. This carried over to the ACC when it was founded in the 1950s too.

But what if Clemson and S.C. had been part of the SEC at its founding? They’d Already have 12 schools in 1991. They could have still pursued Arkansas and FSU that year.

The bigger question mark is what happens to Tobacco Road? Maybe we get an East Coast League that stretches from Boston to NC (and maybe on to Atlanta or Miami)?

Without the South Carolina schools would they have added Georgia Tech? If the ACC had been weaker would Georgia Tech have joined them in '78? Either way they don't get Florida State. There wouldn't have been any football first schools. If anything the assumption might be that the Big East would have raided the ACC instead of the other way around.

Those are my thoughts as well. I think the SEC goes to 14 in 1991 with the Hogs and Noles. GT still goes Indy and I think it becomes an incredibly regrettable decision. Instead of the Big East I think we get the Joe P Conference as Maryland would be a strong advocate for that alliance:

BC, Cuse, Pitt, Penn St, Rutgers, WVU
Maryland, UVA, VT, UNC, NC St, GT, Miami

I realize that’s 13 so I imagine someone ends up being an odd man out. I don’t think Duke and WF get to come along on this ride.

Duke can come along to win UNC over, bumping UMD to the other division.

BIG ATLANTIC CONFERENCE

North/South
Boston College/Miami-FL
Maryland/Virginia
Penn State/Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh/NC State
Rutgers/North Carolina
Syracuse/Duke
West Virginia/Virginia Tech

Meanwhile, the SEC is sitting like so:

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE

Eastern/Southern
Alabama/Auburn
Florida State/Florida
LSU/Arkansas
Ole Miss/Mississippi State
South Carolina/Clemson
Tennessee/Kentucky
Vanderbilt/Georgia

While we're at it...what if the South Atlantic Intercollegiate Athletic Association, a precursor to the Southern Conference, had stayed together?


It included:

Davidson
Duke
George Washington
Georgetown
Maryland
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Richmond
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Virginia Military Institute
Washington and Lee
William & Mary

Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Conference was before Southern Conference.

Johns Hopkins, UNC and Virginia were founders.

Alabama
Auburh
Central U. merged with Eastern Kentucky 1901 to 1941 was ESU's time in the conference
Chattanooa
The Citadel
Clemson
Cumberland TN left in 1906
Florida
Furman left in 1935 with The Citadel
Georgetown KY
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Samford
Johns Hopkins lefy after the 1st season in 1884
Kentucky
LSU
Louisville
Mercer
Millsaps
Ole Miss.
Miss. State
Mississippi College
Nashville left 1908 closed in 1909
UNC left 1901
Oglethorpe
Presbyterian
South Carolina
Birmingham Southern
Rhodes left 1903
Tennessee
Texas A&M left 1914
Texas left 1906
Transylvania
Duke left 1912
Tulane
Sewanee left 1924
Vanderbilt
Virginia left 1894
Wofford left in 1903

Almost conference mates to the usual suspects that are or were part of SoCon.
Centenary, Louisiana
Centre
Delta State
Erskine
Emory & Henry
Jacksonville State
La. Tech
Florida Southern
La.-Lafayette
Kentucky Wesleyan
Louisiana College
Loyola-New Orleans
Memphis
Middle Tennessee State
Miami Florida
Morehead State
Murray State
Newberry
NW Louisiana State
Rollins
Southern Mississippi
Spring Hill
Stetson
Tampa
Tennessee Tech
Troy
Union KY
Union TN
Western Kentucky

A lot of these schools rejoined D1 after being in small college, D2, D3 and NAIA. You got to wonder where many of these schools would be at today if they did not be a yo-yo.

This conference disbanded in 1941, and was one of the major conference at it's time.


Georgia and LSU won the first conference football title and Presbyterian won the last.

The basketball seems to be incomplete, but Western Kentucky won the last.

Sewanee and Cumberland shared the conference titles in football with the big boys.

(07-18-2019 09:27 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(07-18-2019 09:13 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(07-18-2019 09:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-18-2019 08:59 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Here’s an old time realignment change that might have had a huge impact on college sports:

In 1933 13 schools left the SoCon to form the SEC. The ones who stayed behind were:

Maryland, UVA, VT, UNC, NC St, Duke, Clemson, South Carolina, Washington & Lee, & VMI

Those 10 soon added 7 others—mostly small privates. The South Carolina and Tobacco Road schools were frequently at odds with each other. This carried over to the ACC when it was founded in the 1950s too.

But what if Clemson and S.C. had been part of the SEC at its founding? They’d Already have 12 schools in 1991. They could have still pursued Arkansas and FSU that year.

The bigger question mark is what happens to Tobacco Road? Maybe we get an East Coast League that stretches from Boston to NC (and maybe on to Atlanta or Miami)?

Without the South Carolina schools would they have added Georgia Tech? If the ACC had been weaker would Georgia Tech have joined them in '78? Either way they don't get Florida State. There wouldn't have been any football first schools. If anything the assumption might be that the Big East would have raided the ACC instead of the other way around.

Those are my thoughts as well. I think the SEC goes to 14 in 1991 with the Hogs and Noles. GT still goes Indy and I think it becomes an incredibly regrettable decision. Instead of the Big East I think we get the Joe P Conference as Maryland would be a strong advocate for that alliance:

BC, Cuse, Pitt, Penn St, Rutgers, WVU
Maryland, UVA, VT, UNC, NC St, GT, Miami

I realize that’s 13 so I imagine someone ends up being an odd man out. I don’t think Duke and WF get to come along on this ride.

Duke can come along to win UNC over, bumping UMD to the other division.

BIG ATLANTIC CONFERENCE

North/South
Boston College/Miami-FL
Maryland/Virginia
Penn State/Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh/NC State
Rutgers/North Carolina
Syracuse/Duke
West Virginia/Virginia Tech

Meanwhile, the SEC is sitting like so:

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE

Eastern/Southern
Alabama/Auburn
Florida State/Florida
LSU/Arkansas
Ole Miss/Mississippi State
South Carolina/Clemson
Tennessee/Kentucky
Vanderbilt/Georgia

That’s a nice set up.

Can the Big Atlantic hang on the Penn St in 1991 though? If they lose them what happens?

I see two possibilities for the SEC—they put either Vandy or Florida St in the West. Either way you need a crossover rivalry game. I think the SEC would go with no required crossover games (division standings determine CCG participation.

(07-19-2019 04:35 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(07-18-2019 09:27 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(07-18-2019 09:13 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(07-18-2019 09:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-18-2019 08:59 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Here’s an old time realignment change that might have had a huge impact on college sports:

In 1933 13 schools left the SoCon to form the SEC. The ones who stayed behind were:

Maryland, UVA, VT, UNC, NC St, Duke, Clemson, South Carolina, Washington & Lee, & VMI

Those 10 soon added 7 others—mostly small privates. The South Carolina and Tobacco Road schools were frequently at odds with each other. This carried over to the ACC when it was founded in the 1950s too.

But what if Clemson and S.C. had been part of the SEC at its founding? They’d Already have 12 schools in 1991. They could have still pursued Arkansas and FSU that year.

The bigger question mark is what happens to Tobacco Road? Maybe we get an East Coast League that stretches from Boston to NC (and maybe on to Atlanta or Miami)?

Without the South Carolina schools would they have added Georgia Tech? If the ACC had been weaker would Georgia Tech have joined them in '78? Either way they don't get Florida State. There wouldn't have been any football first schools. If anything the assumption might be that the Big East would have raided the ACC instead of the other way around.

Those are my thoughts as well. I think the SEC goes to 14 in 1991 with the Hogs and Noles. GT still goes Indy and I think it becomes an incredibly regrettable decision. Instead of the Big East I think we get the Joe P Conference as Maryland would be a strong advocate for that alliance:

BC, Cuse, Pitt, Penn St, Rutgers, WVU
Maryland, UVA, VT, UNC, NC St, GT, Miami

I realize that’s 13 so I imagine someone ends up being an odd man out. I don’t think Duke and WF get to come along on this ride.

Duke can come along to win UNC over, bumping UMD to the other division.

BIG ATLANTIC CONFERENCE

North/South
Boston College/Miami-FL
Maryland/Virginia
Penn State/Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh/NC State
Rutgers/North Carolina
Syracuse/Duke
West Virginia/Virginia Tech

Meanwhile, the SEC is sitting like so:

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE

Eastern/Southern
Alabama/Auburn
Florida State/Florida
LSU/Arkansas
Ole Miss/Mississippi State
South Carolina/Clemson
Tennessee/Kentucky
Vanderbilt/Georgia

That’s a nice set up.

Can the Big Atlantic hang on the Penn St in 1991 though? If they lose them what happens?

I see two possibilities for the SEC—they put either Vandy or Florida St in the West. Either way you need a crossover rivalry game. I think the SEC would go with no required crossover games (division standings determine CCG participation.

I think Penn State would be quite happy with this setup and not inclined to leave for the Big Ten. But if they leave, there's always Louisville....

Rather than the zipper alignment I proposed for the SEC, let's assume a more geographic split from the start. Here each team has 2 protected crossovers, as the SEC did in reality when they first went to divisions.

Eastern
Clemson: Ole Miss, LSU
Florida: LSU, Auburn
Georgia: Auburn, Alabama
Kentucky: Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
South Carolina: Mississippi State, Ole Miss
Tennessee: Alabama, Vanderbilt

Western
Alabama: Tennessee, Georgia
Auburn: Georgia, Florida
LSU: Florida, Clemson
Mississippi State: South Carolina, Kentucky
Ole Miss: Clemson, South Carolina
Vanderbilt: Kentucky, Tennessee

Adding both Arkansas and FSU to the Western and shifting Vandy to the Eastern better balances the divisions in terms of football strength, assuming the football programs of each school are comparable in strength to those in our timeline (which is actually a huge assumption, given a point of divergence around 1933). The expansion to 14 would likely necessitate dropping down to one protected crossover. Thus flipping Vandy to the Eastern also avoids a scenario wherein Tennessee couldn't play both Alabama and Vandy annually, which at least in our timeline would be a crisis.

Eastern/Western
Clemson/LSU
Florida/Florida State
Georgia/Auburn
Kentucky/Arkansas
South Carolina/Mississippi State
Tennessee/Alabama
Vanderbilt/Ole Miss

Here FSU is to the Western as Missouri is to the Eastern in our timeline, although the former is not nearly as egregious a geographic misplacement as the latter.

Missouri doesn’t necessarily end up in the SEC. In our timeline the ACC schools closed ranks and resisted the temptation to join the SEC. There might not be that stability in this scenario someone like VT might turn.

This brings me back to what happens on the SoCon after 1933. Let’s assume they still add 7 schools in 1937 and that in 1953 the big ones leave to form the ACC only this time they have to bring VT and WVU to fill the void because the SC schools aren’t there to fill out their numbers. GT joins in the 70s as the 9th member.

Let’s say the Maryland never has interest flirting with aligning North. In the early 90s when big independent players Penn St, Florida St, and Miami start aligning. The Big Ten gets Penn St (11), Florida St goes to the SEC (with Arkansas for 14).

Miami, BC, Pitt, Cuse, Rutgers, and Temple are all out there. Miami makes sense as the Acc’s #10. BC, Pitt, and Cuse probably have to fight it out for 11 and 12. I’m assuming this expansion occurs somewhere from 1991-2005.

2010-2013 is tricky. Let’s assume the Pac 12 still adds Colorado and Utah and the Big Ten gets Nebraska and then A&M goes to the SEC. If Missouri goes to the SEC too then the Big 12 adds TCU and Louisville. Rutgers and Maryland still go to the Big Ten. End game is:

Pac12: Same as now
Big 12: same as now except L’ville instead of WVU
Big Ten: same as now
SEC: same as now plus Florida St and Clemson
ACC: same as now except no Clemson, Florida St, or L’ville but they have WVU

North: BC, Cuse, Pitt, VT, WVU, Miami
South: UVA, UNC, NC St, Duke, WF, GT

ND is probably hanging out in the Big East

(06-26-2019 08:05 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(11-22-2017 11:52 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Here's a possible alternate timeline for a Pac-16 scenario:

2011
Colorado from Big 12 to Pac-12
Nebraska from Big 12 to Big Ten
Utah from MWC to Pac-12

2012
Central Florida from C-USA to Big 12
Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Rutgers, South Florida, West Virginia from Big East to Big 12
Missouri, Texas A&M from Big 12 to SEC
Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech from Big 12 to Pac-16
Pittsburgh, Syracuse from Big East to ACC
TCU from MWC to Big 12

Big 12
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Rutgers, South Florida, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, TCU

2013
Butler (NFB), Xavier (NFB) from A-10 to Big East
Creighton (NFB) from MVC to Big East
Notre Dame (NFB) from Big East to ACC

2014
Houston from C-USA to Big 12
Louisville from Big 12 to ACC
Maryland from ACC to Big Ten
Navy (FB) from FBS Ind to Big 12
Rutgers from Big 12 to Big Ten

~~~~~~

FBS 2018

Same as in our timeline: ACC, Big Ten, SEC, MWC

Pac-16
East Pod: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
North Pod: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South Pod: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
West Pod: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC
(pods alternate biennially between Northeast/Southwest and Northwest/Southeast Divisions)

Big 12
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Iowa State, South Florida, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Houston, Kansas, Kansas State, Navy* (Patriot), TCU

C-USA
East: Charlotte, East Carolina, FIU, Marshall, Memphis, Southern Miss, UAB
West: Louisiana Tech, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP, UTSA

MAC
East: Akron, Buffalo, Kent State, Massachusetts* (A-10), Miami-OH, Ohio, Temple* (A-10)
West: Ball State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan

Sun Belt
East: FAU, Georgia State, Middle Tennessee, South Alabama, Troy, Western Kentucky
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State* (WAC), North Texas, Texas State
Non-FB: Little Rock

FBS Ind
Army* (Patriot), BYU* (WCC), Liberty* (ASUN), Notre Dame* (ACC)

* = football only (primary conference)

Revised to account for the departure of UConn to the Big East. Here Memphis moves from CUSA to the Big 12 to replace UConn, MTSU from the Sun Belt to CUSA, and App State from FCS to the Sun Belt, while UConn goes FBS indy (for now).

FBS 2020

Same as in our timeline: ACC, Big Ten, SEC, MWC

Pac-16
East Pod: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
North Pod: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South Pod: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
West Pod: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC
(pods alternate biennially between Northeast/Southwest and Northwest/Southeast Divisions)

Big 12
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Memphis, South Florida, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Houston, Kansas, Kansas State, Navy* (Patriot), TCU

C-USA
East: Charlotte, East Carolina, FIU, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss, UAB
West: Louisiana Tech, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP, UTSA

MAC
East: Akron, Buffalo, Kent State, Massachusetts* (A-10), Miami-OH, Ohio, Temple* (A-10)
West: Ball State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan

Sun Belt
East: Appalachian State, FAU, Georgia State, South Alabama, Troy, Western Kentucky
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State* (WAC), North Texas, Texas State
Non-FB: Little Rock

FBS Ind
Army* (Patriot), BYU* (WCC), Connecticut* (Big East), Liberty* (ASUN), Notre Dame* (ACC)

* = football only (primary conference)

It begs the question of whether a Big 12 with regular tournament teams like KU, K-State, Baylor, ISU and WVU might not be so unpalatable to UConn as the AAC with ECU, Tulsa, Tulane and SMU as to warrant jumping ship. I would also think that having WVU, Baylor, TCU, K-State and ISU for football to go along with Cincy, UCF and Houston, and coupled with the Big 12 name still retaining some brand equity, would arguably have gotten that Big 12 a better media rights deal and more Huskies fans’ butts in seats. In turn that would help offset the deficits UConn has run up in the AAC in our reality and perhaps make the decision to consign the football program to the dustbin of mediocrity in return for getting to play Seton Hall, St. John’s, Creighton and DePaul twice a year in basketball a bit less likely to transpire. As a corollary, I wouldn’t imagine that KU and K-State would ever let Wichita State into that Big 12 as basketball only member, but if the TV money were sufficient they could toy with the idea of adding Gonzaga as a basketball-only team to appease UConn and pair with Navy. Even if the Zags idea is too far fetched, KU and K-State blocking the Shockers would leave the Big East open to bailing on the 11 team round robin idea and adding the Shockers as well as St. Louis (sorry Dayton, even in this hypothetical I don’t think you’ll get in), or just adding Wichita as an 11th team.

I think we need to talk about what would have happened if some of the Southland schools would have been able to fight their relegation to DI-AA in the early 80s the way the MAC did:

ULL (met standards)
McNeese St (met standards)
Ark St (just missed)
LA Tech (just missed)
UTA
Lamar
+
UNT (just missed)
USM (met standards)
Tulsa (met standards)
Wich St (met standards)

If those 3 borderline schools fight and get back in that’s a pretty nice 10 team league.

It also has a lot of potential consequences for future realignment:


In the early 90s the Big West gets in a real pickle when they can’t grab a trio from this group as affiliates

1995: USM joins C-USA

1996: this is a head scratcher, maybe Tulsa gets mixed up in the WAC 16, maybe they don’t. Nevada would be the most likely replacement

1999-2001: in the fallout of the MWC-WAC I think the WAC looks to balance with a 5-5 geographic split but with a strong Southland they might struggle to pry away Central Time Zone schools and have to go with Boise, Utah St, NMSU (Idaho scurries back to FCS, if they ever come up at all)

Over the years I think the Southland gets plenty of opportunity to expand, should they choose to. MTSU, Troy, and ULM all would have wanted in. I’m not sure what happens to FBS aspirations in the 2000s at places like USA, WKU, FAU, and FIU. Sunbelt football in 2001 was at the behest of the former Southland schools. Maybe around 2005 they try to start up a league that for football would be a step below the Southland.

Reshuffling from above I think opens opportunities for schools like UTSA and Texas St to get in the Southland in the 2010s

(08-02-2019 12:19 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think we need to talk about what would have happened if some of the Southland schools would have been able to fight their relegation to DI-AA in the early 80s the way the MAC did:

ULL (met standards)
McNeese St (met standards)
Ark St (just missed)
LA Tech (just missed)
UTA
Lamar
+
UNT (just missed)
USM (met standards)
Tulsa (met standards)
Wich St (met standards)

If those 3 borderline schools fight and get back in that’s a pretty nice 10 team league.

It also has a lot of potential consequences for future realignment:


In the early 90s the Big West gets in a real pickle when they can’t grab a trio from this group as affiliates

1995: USM joins C-USA

1996: this is a head scratcher, maybe Tulsa gets mixed up in the WAC 16, maybe they don’t. Nevada would be the most likely replacement

1999-2001: in the fallout of the MWC-WAC I think the WAC looks to balance with a 5-5 geographic split but with a strong Southland they might struggle to pry away Central Time Zone schools and have to go with Boise, Utah St, NMSU (Idaho scurries back to FCS, if they ever come up at all)

Over the years I think the Southland gets plenty of opportunity to expand, should they choose to. MTSU, Troy, and ULM all would have wanted in. I’m not sure what happens to FBS aspirations in the 2000s at places like USA, WKU, FAU, and FIU. Sunbelt football in 2001 was at the behest of the former Southland schools. Maybe around 2005 they try to start up a league that for football would be a step below the Southland.

Reshuffling from above I think opens opportunities for schools like UTSA and Texas St to get in the Southland in the 2010s

The Sun Belt basically capitalized on the Southland’s lack of 1-A teams. It pretty much ensured the Belt’s place as a mid-major rather than a small conference.

Esayem—if you look at the history, the feud between the Metro and Great Midwest gutted the Sunbelt so bad they had to completely absorb the short lived American South Conference, which included the old Southland schools who were trying to make it as FBS independents after they Southland booted them for not being FCS.

In my scenario, WKU, USA, and Jacksonville probably absorb the A-Sun instead.