10 maybe a little higher
only schools that help B-10 & SEC r Va & UNC
wins, bowls, atten, donations all have to grow also
Kansas & Conn would be a wash for B - 10 [unless B-10 cultivates NYC]
does Houston & Mia work for SEC ?
ACC is in abind with ND
Pac 12 has to get Hous & Haw: 15 & 16 NM & Brithish Colubia
B-12 needs 8 solves all there promblems
BYU, Conn, UCF, USF, Cin, Buffalo, Memphis, Temple

(06-13-2017 06:15 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The problem is politics. You can't leave the 7 Big 12 teams that are not wanted out of the P5 status. Anti-trust lawsuits could be pending. So, I do think the Power 5 will go to 16 teams. That means teams in the G5, and maybe in the FCS could find homes.

Why on earth not? Teams have been excluded from conferences forming and reforming since forever. Rice, TCU, SMU, and UH got left out when UT and it's buddies left to form the B12. The entire AAC is filled with programs not wanted by the P5. It's a market, and the market will pay whatever conference the B12 ends up being after the P5 absorbs the defectors.

Besides, P5 doesn't mean very much now. It's a holdover term from the BCS. Anybody can get in the playoffs. Whatever conference that would be formed of B12 "leftovers" would be better than the current AAC... likely it would be a merger of some kind of both conferences (and thus likely schools would be left out of the new b12... see how this is an impossible knot to legislate?).

Moreover, the conference payouts for the SEC and the B12 are around $40M per team. You're going to have someone tell the B1G they have to take KSU and ISU and whoever else and pay them all $40M too, because... reasons? What about Uconn and Cincy, who also used to be part of a P5?

(06-13-2017 02:37 PM)Georgia_Power_Company Wrote:  

(06-13-2017 02:25 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  

(06-13-2017 01:26 PM)Georgia_Power_Company Wrote:  

(06-13-2017 11:49 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  To be honest, I don't think there's any spots left.

If we work off the assumption that many are making that the Big XII isn't long for this world, you'll see OU, TX, KU, WVU, and maybe OSU find homes. The rest will probably be left out in the cold.

Of the teams currently not in a P5, there's UConn, BYU, and Houston, and I don't see anyone lining up at their doorsteps wanting to invite them.

If things go the collapse of the Big XII route, there's to many teams if anything.

If the Big12 does collapse as some say will the TV networks pay more $$$ to the SEC, Pac12, ACC or Big 10 to pick up the Big 12's teams? Pac12 maybe would get a bump for Texas +1 but my gut says TV $$$ are about maxed out in the SEC or Big 10. ACC also maybe gets a bump but are they willing to add with Notre Dame still hanging out there?

Most likely Big 12 would only lose one or two schools and the remnants would back fill with Houston +1 and keep P5 status.

Even if the Big 12 were to lose it's most valuable schools such as Texas, OU, Kansas and WVU the remaining schools would still be strong enough to pull up the top G5 schools and keep the Big 12 viable. Remember the Big 12 is an autonomy conference and unless the conference completely dissolves will continue to have a seat a big boys table.

That's the million dollar question (no pun intended). Will the networks pay more for the Big XII remnants. It depends on who gets whom. I can seen the top 4 adding value to a conference but outside of that not so much.

The question then becomes in the aftermath, would a retooled Big XII minus the top 4 be any better or stronger than the AAC? If I'm Houston for example, you might be better off staying AAC then moving to a Big XII that's a shadow of it's former self. I don't see the networks or the BCS committee keeping the new Big XII on par with the new P4. They'd be at the proverbial kids table with the other conferences.

See that's the thing there is no such thing as a P5. What you have is five conferences with autonomy to make their own rules and as long as the Big 12 remains viable they have a seat at that table albeit with reduced prestige but still there.

If say they lost Texas, OU, Kansas and WVU as in my orginial example and back-filled with Colorado St, Houston, New Mexico and BYU they would still have a much more formidable lineup than the AAC.

BYU
New Mexico
Colorado St
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU
Houston
OSU
Kansas St
Iowa St

This conference would still get a seat at the big boys table. IMHO

That's why I love this board. Everyone has an opinion they can share and discuss.

The lineup you have for the new Big XII might look good compared to the AAC or the MWC, but compared to the big 4, it's pretty much blah.

Each of the other conferences would have teams that would either be considered blue bloods or at least perennial powerhouses, the new 12 wouldn't even have a marquee team. I for one would have a hard time telling the an LSU or a Michigan who went thru the juggernaut and only lost 1 game they had to take a back seat in a major bowl game to THAT.

The only way I could see them keeping seat at the table with that proposed configuration would be if a deal was struck to let TX, OU, KU, and WVU out before the GOR expires in exchange for that seat. If they just let the clock run out, there's no way the networks or the new big 4 would allow it.

(06-13-2017 02:37 PM)Georgia_Power_Company Wrote:  

(06-13-2017 02:25 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  

(06-13-2017 01:26 PM)Georgia_Power_Company Wrote:  

(06-13-2017 11:49 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  To be honest, I don't think there's any spots left.

If we work off the assumption that many are making that the Big XII isn't long for this world, you'll see OU, TX, KU, WVU, and maybe OSU find homes. The rest will probably be left out in the cold.

Of the teams currently not in a P5, there's UConn, BYU, and Houston, and I don't see anyone lining up at their doorsteps wanting to invite them.

If things go the collapse of the Big XII route, there's to many teams if anything.

If the Big12 does collapse as some say will the TV networks pay more $$$ to the SEC, Pac12, ACC or Big 10 to pick up the Big 12's teams? Pac12 maybe would get a bump for Texas +1 but my gut says TV $$$ are about maxed out in the SEC or Big 10. ACC also maybe gets a bump but are they willing to add with Notre Dame still hanging out there?

Most likely Big 12 would only lose one or two schools and the remnants would back fill with Houston +1 and keep P5 status.

Even if the Big 12 were to lose it's most valuable schools such as Texas, OU, Kansas and WVU the remaining schools would still be strong enough to pull up the top G5 schools and keep the Big 12 viable. Remember the Big 12 is an autonomy conference and unless the conference completely dissolves will continue to have a seat a big boys table.

That's the million dollar question (no pun intended). Will the networks pay more for the Big XII remnants. It depends on who gets whom. I can seen the top 4 adding value to a conference but outside of that not so much.

The question then becomes in the aftermath, would a retooled Big XII minus the top 4 be any better or stronger than the AAC? If I'm Houston for example, you might be better off staying AAC then moving to a Big XII that's a shadow of it's former self. I don't see the networks or the BCS committee keeping the new Big XII on par with the new P4. They'd be at the proverbial kids table with the other conferences.

See that's the thing there is no such thing as a P5. What you have is five conferences with autonomy to make their own rules and as long as the Big 12 remains viable they have a seat at that table albeit with reduced prestige but still there.

If say they lost Texas, OU, Kansas and WVU as in my orginial example and back-filled with Colorado St, Houston, New Mexico and BYU they would still have a much more formidable lineup than the AAC.

BYU
New Mexico
Colorado St
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU
Houston
OSU
Kansas St
Iowa St

This conference would still get a seat at the big boys table. IMHO

I interesting that you have the Big 12 going West. I always pictured them going East with Houston, Cincy, UCF, and USF.

I'm curious--you have Tech left behind but WVU is gone. Where do you see everyone heading?

(06-13-2017 08:24 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  The only way I could see them keeping seat at the table with that proposed configuration would be if a deal was struck to let TX, OU, KU, and WVU out before the GOR expires in exchange for that seat.

What seat? What table? The term P5 doesn't mean much now that AQ and the BCS are gone. It's now mainly to designate those conferences that have the highest revenue and highest level of play. The only thing it really means is if you're lumped in with the G5, the highest ranked gets a NY6 spot. I'm guessing a reformed B12 would have a reasonable shot at getting a tie-in to one of those bowls, since they already have the Sugar Bowl tie-in. That alone would make them a Power conference. One NY6 tie-in, and the same shot as everybody else at the playoffs.

A B12 without Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas and maybe a couple other schools (Texas Tech and Oklahoma State for example) would probably lose that Sugar Bowl tie-in likely others. Most likely the expanded conferences (B1G, SEC, maybe P12) would all pick up an addition Bowl tie-in at the expense of the B12. The back filled (with MWC and AAC schools) B12 would have to replace those slots with pre-Christmas slots, likely bumping some G5 conferences to get Academies, MWC and American match-ups.

(06-13-2017 07:55 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  

(06-13-2017 06:15 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The problem is politics. You can't leave the 7 Big 12 teams that are not wanted out of the P5 status. Anti-trust lawsuits could be pending. So, I do think the Power 5 will go to 16 teams. That means teams in the G5, and maybe in the FCS could find homes.

Why on earth not? Teams have been excluded from conferences forming and reforming since forever. Rice, TCU, SMU, and UH got left out when UT and it's buddies left to form the B12. The entire AAC is filled with programs not wanted by the P5. It's a market, and the market will pay whatever conference the B12 ends up being after the P5 absorbs the defectors.

Besides, P5 doesn't mean very much now. It's a holdover term from the BCS. Anybody can get in the playoffs. Whatever conference that would be formed of B12 "leftovers" would be better than the current AAC... likely it would be a merger of some kind of both conferences (and thus likely schools would be left out of the new b12... see how this is an impossible knot to legislate?).

Moreover, the conference payouts for the SEC and the B12 are around $40M per team. You're going to have someone tell the B1G they have to take KSU and ISU and whoever else and pay them all $40M too, because... reasons? What about Uconn and Cincy, who also used to be part of a P5?

Big 10 wants to expand like to 22 teams. They have eyes on ACC schools. Same with SEC as well. The problem is that ESPN would have to cut all the fat that they can get. That could mean that the ACC Network is DEAD. Will never get off the ground since ESPN needs to stop spending money. When that happens? The juicy schools from the ACC would be picked up by the Big 10 and SEC. Virginia Tech could be in the SEC with NC State. Duke and Wake Forest are teams that nobody wants because they are more basketball first, and are way late to the football party.

(06-13-2017 08:50 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  

(06-13-2017 08:24 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  The only way I could see them keeping seat at the table with that proposed configuration would be if a deal was struck to let TX, OU, KU, and WVU out before the GOR expires in exchange for that seat.

What seat? What table? The term P5 doesn't mean much now that AQ and the BCS are gone. It's now mainly to designate those conferences that have the highest revenue and highest level of play. The only thing it really means is if you're lumped in with the G5, the highest ranked gets a NY6 spot. I'm guessing a reformed B12 would have a reasonable shot at getting a tie-in to one of those bowls, since they already have the Sugar Bowl tie-in. That alone would make them a Power conference. One NY6 tie-in, and the same shot as everybody else at the playoffs.

The seats at the table refer to the spots in the CFB championship. Assuming there is no expansion, there's 4 seats at the table and I highly doubt that the P4 will allow a new Big XII to weasel in on their party, especially when their line up would be no where near what the others have.

Like I said, the only way I could see the new Big XII keeping a NY6 game would be if it's negotiated for an early release for certain schools. If they just let the clock run out, I don't see the sponsors or the networks tying themselves to a New Mexico (for example) when they could put a PSU, an FSU, or an LSU in that game.

(06-13-2017 08:38 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(06-13-2017 02:37 PM)Georgia_Power_Company Wrote:  

(06-13-2017 02:25 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  

(06-13-2017 01:26 PM)Georgia_Power_Company Wrote:  

(06-13-2017 11:49 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  To be honest, I don't think there's any spots left.

If we work off the assumption that many are making that the Big XII isn't long for this world, you'll see OU, TX, KU, WVU, and maybe OSU find homes. The rest will probably be left out in the cold.

Of the teams currently not in a P5, there's UConn, BYU, and Houston, and I don't see anyone lining up at their doorsteps wanting to invite them.

If things go the collapse of the Big XII route, there's to many teams if anything.

If the Big12 does collapse as some say will the TV networks pay more $$$ to the SEC, Pac12, ACC or Big 10 to pick up the Big 12's teams? Pac12 maybe would get a bump for Texas +1 but my gut says TV $$$ are about maxed out in the SEC or Big 10. ACC also maybe gets a bump but are they willing to add with Notre Dame still hanging out there?

Most likely Big 12 would only lose one or two schools and the remnants would back fill with Houston +1 and keep P5 status.

Even if the Big 12 were to lose it's most valuable schools such as Texas, OU, Kansas and WVU the remaining schools would still be strong enough to pull up the top G5 schools and keep the Big 12 viable. Remember the Big 12 is an autonomy conference and unless the conference completely dissolves will continue to have a seat a big boys table.

That's the million dollar question (no pun intended). Will the networks pay more for the Big XII remnants. It depends on who gets whom. I can seen the top 4 adding value to a conference but outside of that not so much.

The question then becomes in the aftermath, would a retooled Big XII minus the top 4 be any better or stronger than the AAC? If I'm Houston for example, you might be better off staying AAC then moving to a Big XII that's a shadow of it's former self. I don't see the networks or the BCS committee keeping the new Big XII on par with the new P4. They'd be at the proverbial kids table with the other conferences.

See that's the thing there is no such thing as a P5. What you have is five conferences with autonomy to make their own rules and as long as the Big 12 remains viable they have a seat at that table albeit with reduced prestige but still there.

If say they lost Texas, OU, Kansas and WVU as in my orginial example and back-filled with Colorado St, Houston, New Mexico and BYU they would still have a much more formidable lineup than the AAC.

BYU
New Mexico
Colorado St
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU
Houston
OSU
Kansas St
Iowa St

This conference would still get a seat at the big boys table. IMHO

I interesting that you have the Big 12 going West. I always pictured them going East with Houston, Cincy, UCF, and USF.

I'm curious--you have Tech left behind but WVU is gone. Where do you see everyone heading?

In my OP I presumed Texas, OU, Kansas and WVU would move to other conferences. If you remove WVU the drive to go east would be greatly reduced. The teams I then suggested seemed to be the best remaining candidates. BYU is the biggest non-P5 still in play, Colorado St is a school on the rise just like Houston. Houston would be a no-brainier in a Big 12 without Texas and New Mexico I admit I just threw in there because if the Big 12 did go west they check off some important boxes like state flagship, good academics and so on.

(06-14-2017 06:37 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  The seats at the table refer to the spots in the CFB championship. Assuming there is no expansion, there's 4 seats at the table and I highly doubt that the P4 will allow a new Big XII to weasel in on their party, especially when their line up would be no where near what the others have.

Like I said, the only way I could see the new Big XII keeping a NY6 game would be if it's negotiated for an early release for certain schools. If they just let the clock run out, I don't see the sponsors or the networks tying themselves to a New Mexico (for example) when they could put a PSU, an FSU, or an LSU in that game.

Wut? The 4 playoff spots are decided by committee. There is no AQ for playoffs. An undefeated new-B12 could easily get in the playoffs with that lineup, especially if it included one or two more high-profile OOC wins.

(06-14-2017 07:38 AM)ColKurtz Wrote:  

(06-14-2017 06:37 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  The seats at the table refer to the spots in the CFB championship. Assuming there is no expansion, there's 4 seats at the table and I highly doubt that the P4 will allow a new Big XII to weasel in on their party, especially when their line up would be no where near what the others have.

Like I said, the only way I could see the new Big XII keeping a NY6 game would be if it's negotiated for an early release for certain schools. If they just let the clock run out, I don't see the sponsors or the networks tying themselves to a New Mexico (for example) when they could put a PSU, an FSU, or an LSU in that game.

Wut? The 4 playoff spots are decided by committee. There is no AQ for playoffs. An undefeated new-B12 could easily get in the playoffs with that lineup, especially if it included one or two more high-profile OOC wins.

First, that committee would never put the champion of that realigned conference over a champion of the other 4. It just ain't happening. Second, if conferences were realigned into 4 powers, they could (and should) change the rules and create a AQ fot their 4 champions. There wouldn't be a damn thing the other conferences could do about it, especially if they had the backing of ESPN and Fox.

(06-12-2017 08:35 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  I would say 2 in the Big 12 but I think it's plausible that the ACC and B1G could split in half if they get too big, and each side could expand from there. Ditto if the SEC goes beyond 14.

I personally think the number will always hover around 65 but maybe it grows to 70-75 if a conference or two splits up and adds members.

Just one. The lucky one that Notre Dame chooses to join ACC with.

Two of Big 12 will lose their P5 status. Two will go to B1G. Two will go to SEC. Four will go to Pac12 (becoming Pac16 after the addition).

B1G picks first. They should choose Texas and Kansas. SEC picks second. They will choose Oklahoma and West Virginia. Pac16 will choose Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech and Baylor.

Iowa State and Kansas State will be left behind and join AAC.

If B1G picks Texas and Oklahoma. then SEC will pick West Virginia and Kansas.

The NCAA autonomy group (P5) will shrink by about 60 when the B1G and SEC expand becoming leagues of about 30 each before leaving the current governance structure and becoming only nominally aligned with the NCAA.

I don't think the number of P5 schools is likely to shrink. The top group has been mid 60s for a long time. The Big 10(11)/Pac 10(10)/SWC(8)/Big 8(8)/SEC(12)/ACC(9)/BE(8) + ND was 67 in the early 90s. We're at 65 now. Rice, SMU, Temple, Houston down, Utah and Louisville up.

We've kind of got a P5 + 2 in the mezzanine now (AAC/MWC) similar to the 90s when it was BCS 6 + WAC/CUSA. You've got political issues (Remember Senator Hatch before Utah got in Pac 12?) is you start to shrink the top group.

(06-13-2017 03:16 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(06-13-2017 03:15 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(06-13-2017 03:11 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(06-13-2017 02:37 PM)Georgia_Power_Company Wrote:  BYU
New Mexico
Colorado St
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU
Houston
OSU
Kansas St
Iowa St

This conference would still get a seat at the big boys table. IMHO

I agree that the Big 12 would remain part of the autonomy conference structure.

Would that group hold on to Sugar Bowl bid against the SEC champ?

I doubt it. My hunch is that the Orange Bowl would become ACC champ v SEC champ and the Big 12 would get the Cotton Bowl or Fiesta Bowl against #2 from the PAC, B1G, or SEC.

I can't imagine the SEC giving up their champ being in the Sugar Bowl. That will always be the SEC top bowl.

So, Sugar Bowl might be SEC Champ v. B1G #2 or ACC #2?

Yea, thats not gonna happen........

(06-14-2017 08:13 AM)ArQ Wrote:  

(06-12-2017 08:35 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  I would say 2 in the Big 12 but I think it's plausible that the ACC and B1G could split in half if they get too big, and each side could expand from there. Ditto if the SEC goes beyond 14.

I personally think the number will always hover around 65 but maybe it grows to 70-75 if a conference or two splits up and adds members.

Just one. The lucky one that Notre Dame chooses to join ACC with.

Two of Big 12 will lose their P5 status. Two will go to B1G. Two will go to SEC. Four will go to Pac12 (becoming Pac16 after the addition).

B1G picks first. They should choose Texas and Kansas. SEC picks second. They will choose Oklahoma and West Virginia. Pac16 will choose Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech and Baylor.

Iowa State and Kansas State will be left behind and join AAC.

If B1G picks Texas and Oklahoma. then SEC will pick West Virginia and Kansas.

Pac-12 expansion pretty much starts and ends with Texas, if UT says no thanks then the Pac will close up shop and stay at 12 as the value simply wouldn't be there to add all the little brothers of the B12 and that would be before even factoring in schools objecting due to geographic and academic issues they would have with these 4.

Baylor would have as much a chance of netting a P12 invite as BYU does, even Texas were they to join wouldn't have the stroke to get them into the conference

Iowa State is not going to get left out. Think like a university president. AAU university. Top notch fan support.

(06-14-2017 01:34 PM)MissouriStateBears Wrote:  Iowa State is not going to get left out. Think like a university president. AAU university. Top notch fan support.

But it is in a bad location. The only conference that can take them is B1G but they think Iowa is too small a state to have two representatives in B1G.

(06-14-2017 08:13 AM)ArQ Wrote:  

(06-12-2017 08:35 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  I would say 2 in the Big 12 but I think it's plausible that the ACC and B1G could split in half if they get too big, and each side could expand from there. Ditto if the SEC goes beyond 14.

I personally think the number will always hover around 65 but maybe it grows to 70-75 if a conference or two splits up and adds members.

Just one. The lucky one that Notre Dame chooses to join ACC with.

Two of Big 12 will lose their P5 status. Two will go to B1G. Two will go to SEC. Four will go to Pac12 (becoming Pac16 after the addition).

B1G picks first. They should choose Texas and Kansas. SEC picks second. They will choose Oklahoma and West Virginia. Pac16 will choose Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech and Baylor.

Iowa State and Kansas State will be left behind and join AAC.

If B1G picks Texas and Oklahoma. then SEC will pick West Virginia and Kansas.

Dungeons and Dragons?

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(06-14-2017 09:01 AM)jrj84105 Wrote:  The NCAA autonomy group (P5) will shrink by about 60 when the B1G and SEC expand becoming leagues of about 30 each before leaving the current governance structure and becoming only nominally aligned with the NCAA.

..and lose tax exempy status.

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