(04-10-2017 05:08 AM)XLance Wrote: Only the ACC has attempted to absorb three teams in the same expansion. I would not recommend that action for any conference in the future. The larger conferences become, integration of new schools gets tougher, for practical reasons, you should limit your scenarios to just two teams.
The conversation keeps vacillating between what is good for the SEC and what is better for the combined SEC/ACC.
If ESPN is looking to put together an inventory grouping to be able to stand alone, you will need to limit your suggestions with the combined grouping in mind.
Also, by keeping Notre Dame semi-independent, ESPN will be able to gain access to one west coast game per year (Southern Cal or Stanford), and possible one B1G game per year if they want it. The Irish may be more valuable in their same capacity but with tighter reins, than as a full conference member.
If 4 teams to enhance the ACC/SEC is the right fit (excluding Notre Dame) works, plan accordingly, if it is necessary to add one more, Texas as a partial may provide equal value as Notre Dame in that they could be used to gain limited Big Game exposure for ESPN from areas controlled the the other Network. Then you can start to think in terms of a 5 team expansion which opens possibilities. Kansas with poor attendance might not be a good #4, but would be a super #5.
If both Texas and Notre Dame are semi-independent, your pods may look like this: (it's only a first run through, but you may get the idea)
Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri
Texas A&M, LSU, Arkansas, Ole Miss
Miss. State, Alabama, Auburn, Vanderbilt
Louisville, Kentucky, Virginia Tech, Tennessee
Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia
UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech
Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson, South Carolina
Georgia, Florida, Florida State, Miami
You may be able to move a few teams around to get better rivalries or prolong traditions, again this is just a first run through.
1. Texas, at least according to the folks I know, doesn't particularly want independence.
2. I think any movement toward a united grouping will start first with a scheduling alliance and then within a decade or so will gravitate toward a merger. Therefore I don't see pods being in the offing from the beginning. Now if we split from the NCAA we might be able to jump into a deeper arrangement immediately, but as long as we remain in the NCAA we will move slowly.
3. If we leave the NCAA I see no need for N.D.'s independence, nor any reason for any school to pursue it.
4. I think in the short term we take up to 3 schools between us, and that we remain separate until 2034 (SECN Contract) and then merger becomes possible. So, the SEC will pursue Oklahoma and Texas optimally, and might well settle for OU & OSU, or might do what it takes to land both which might entail Texa-homa.
If we do this then caring about what the ACC prefers or doesn't prefer isn't an issue for us and solving the division issue might well be our issue to resolve prior to leaving the NCAA. After all we did pioneer two divisions and a championship game didn't we? At least we did it as a power conference with a tip of the hat to the WAC.
5. Right now the ACC is 24 million in mean revenue behind the SEC. Right now the ACC is 20,000 mean attendance behind the SEC. Right now the ACC is tied for last in viewer saturation numbers with the PAC while the SEC dominates this statistic. We aren't talking cable households here. We are talking cable households that actually watch the games. The second best conference with regards to saturation is the Big 12 which just nudged out the Big 10 thanks to the Big 10's recent additions of Maryland and Rutgers.
6. Content will drive all future revenues. Texas and Oklahoma will never be able to make more money in any other conference than they will be able to make in the SEC.
7. I get tired of hearing about the CIC as it gives no member school additional grant money, can't elect a school to AAU, and only encourages grant sharing between member schools. I mention this not directed at you X, but at others. My point is athletic associations are about athletic revenue. Academic associations are about research grants. The two, in order to be efficient, need to be separate.
8. Nothing would destroy the familial atmosphere of the SEC faster than special deals for special egos. If Texas chooses to come they will either have to be all in or else they will be all out. What you do with Notre Dame is your business, not ours. But, why offer favors to a school well past its prime. Notre Dame is a private religious school in a secular business world. The masses have lost touch with the very concept. It's a great school, but not one with a tremendous upside in this high tech, godless world. While I find that to be a sad commentary on our society and would wish it to be otherwise, it is nevertheless the truth. They need the ACC to become more relevant. They need the Sunbelt in order to find competitive recruits. In other words they need you, so why offer them anything if you are in a position of strength? But that's the point isn't it? You weren't in a position of strength when you cut the deal. You were in fear of losing your conference. The SEC is not afraid. So, we will be party to zero special deals, period.
9. If the ACC is to merge with the SEC it has to close the gap on revenue, venue size, and attendance. We would consider it in order to have a solid South and because there is an upside to our future together. We won't enter into it if we have to sacrifice those things which made us strong in order to adopt a philosophy that almost destroyed the ACC, and which may yet destroy it.
10. As the top brand in the only region of the country that still has an extremely strong sports culture with a great following the SEC doesn't have to have ESPN to survive and thrive. Any network would love to have our product. We are appreciative for what ESPN has done for us, but we are also aware of how ESPN on several occasions has screwed up what would have made us even stronger and how they have shot themselves in the foot more than once. I sincerely believe deference to the ACC by Skipper has been at the root of some of these mistakes.
I totally get why they wanted the ACC to acquire the Big East properties they wanted. I understand why they needed to keep you strong in order to accomplish it. But, I don't get for a second why they would want to foul up our plans on a couple of occasions to accomplish it. In the end what has it gotten them? A large conference with cobbled together pieces, with a disinterested fan base and the worst economic standing of the current P conferences.
You are still vulnerable. How do I know this? Special deals, that's how! I think ESPN will acquire the product it wants. I think they will use the SEC and ACC to do so. But the gap will still exist between our two conferences. It will be up to ESPN to close that gap for you if we are ever to merge. Why? Because until it is at least closed to within a reasonable distance the SEC will never consent to a merger.
IMO, the best we can hope for right now is for two conferences in one league, but financially independent of one another. That much is in our mutual self interest. It is in the interest of ESPN. And, it will lift all boats which are a party to it. But the concept of a merger is more distant and will require work.
Now a separation from the NCAA could help to expedite a merger. But if that occurs we will have some schools from the Big 10 and PAC that will be a part of it, and we may not have all of our schools as a part of it. Right now that is the biggest obstacle to heading in that direction. It would destroy many old relationships and amid the disruptive and destructive nature of realignment it may be a bridge too far.
The 32 - 34 schools you mention may well be exactly what ESPN needs from a market perspective, but they are not what the SEC would need to enhance its position. North Carolina, Virginia or Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Clemson are about all we could ever see making a difference to the SEC in content value. Duke of course would be an acceptable addition if the others were ever interested. But my point is that B.C., Wake, Pitt, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, N.C. State, and Syracuse simply no longer could add enough to be considered for the SEC.
Your conference more than any other was predicated upon the market model. It was a mistake. Maryland and Rutgers to the Big 10 was a mistake. I have to wonder how the division on campus at Missouri over joining the SEC might have impacted their current issues. A&M was not a mistake. Heck, even Colorado and Utah were less than stellar gets for the PAC. The 2011 additions with A&M excepted were a network cluster %^&*.
Content and fit are still the major factors in realignment and always will be. The SEC dodged most of the bullets that the networks fired in error in 2011. The rest suffered. That is why we have now surpassed the Big 10 in revenue and attendance. It is why the PAC is in the doldrums, and it is why N.D. got a special deal to the ACC.
I was and am a proponent of a stronger ACC. It is the best buffer the SEC has (besides itself) against Big 10 incursion into our region. But from a sports business perspective there is a gulf between us that in part stems directly from the division of the old Southern Conference. It is not an insurmountable gulf but it will take time and work by both of our conferences to be able to grow back together.
So let's let the SEC expand to 16 or 18 on its own. You guys do the same if you desire to, and then once we are completed as two conferences then we can work on those things which have to be tackled for a future union to be possible. That way ESPN can acquire the inventory through us that they want, and then they can help us to close that gap together.
And for the record X, here are two of the measurable gaps:
Attendance: SEC: 77,565
ACC: 49,827 For a difference of 27,738 in average attendance.
That's a lot of money on left on the table. For the record only Clemson could add to the SEC total. Florida State is a slight wash on the negative side.
MEAN Gross Revenue: SEC: 121,240,504
ACC: 87,034,205 For a difference of $34,206,299 per school.
Currently nobody in the ACC can really add to that figure based on content value alone. Perhaps North Carolina and Virginia could add enough from markets and content combined. So truly the SEC is really down to just two expansion candidates, Texas and Oklahoma but either or both of those add enough to cover one other school earning in the 90,000,000 range.
Now let those very real numbers sink in for awhile.
