We are presently 12.5 favorites. It was 13 earlier today. Haven't seen an over/under as of yet. But the way elon shoots the three it could be a high scoring game.

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At the dinner table I asked my family what the # would be. My 16 year old son said UNCW by 18 and my 9 year old son said UNCW by 12. The younger one was right. I hope that the guys don't get injured and play well.

These lines are incredible. Don't ever recall so many spreads like this in the past.

Sorry to be lazy on this one but haven't had time for a proper write-up. This is from last week.

Since that time Elon got pummeled by Charleston (final score doesn't reflect how dominant the Cougars were), but I imagine Charleston will do that to several CAA teams this year.





It is likely not fair to place Elon this low in the rankings. Certainly they've proven that they can avoid "bad losses" and compete at a high level against quality competition. In Year 1 in the CAA, they went 6-12, with 4 of those wins coming consecutively in late February-March. That included a win over UNCW. In Year 2, they went 7-4 in their non-conference games, and improved to 7-11 in conference play. Certainly, under 8th-year coach Matt Matheny, even more improvement can and should be expected. And the results so far have been good. They won a 3-game tournament in Illinois and are 6-0 against RPI 200+ teams. Even their losses so far this season have been competitive: Their average margin of defeat was 8.0 despite facing the likes of Duke and Georgetown.

But basketball isn't just about who you've played and beaten. It comes down to matchups. And this thread is about who can topple US, not what the final standings will be. And Elon simply does not match up well at all with Coach Keatts' squad.

Why, do you ask? Because of Elon's dependence on perimeter shots. As stated previously about Hofstra, an over-reliance on three pointers plays into UNCW's strengths. The Phoenix have attempted even more than Hofstra (325, tied for 35th nationally), a live-or-die mentality that we can live with: We have a lineup with four guards, several of them bigger than Elon's, who can defend the perimeter, and then score quickly off of misses. Elon attempts to turn games into shootouts. And this is the wrong year to attempt to do that to us.

Elon's best hope at a mismatch is redshirt junior forward Brian Dawkins. The 6-8, 240 lbs product from Jacksonville, Florida is a true "Stretch 5": He's an extremely efficient shooter from the outside, picking and choosing his moments wisely. He's made 20 of 29 (.690) from the perimeter, which will force Coach Keatts to either stick Flemmings on him OR hope that Cacok can cover him far away from the basket without costing us rebounds. Dawkins was especially troublesome against Duke, against whom he made 4 of 4 from long range and 7-13 overall.

Even Tyler Seibring, another 6-8 big man, has spent much of the season testing his range, but to much less effect. He is 14-53 (.264 on the season), making him a likelier candidate to be guarded by Cacok. Playing any zone whatsoever against the Phoenix would be a fool's errand, and Coach Keatts has never been one to use a zone unless absolutely called for.

Saavy veteran Luke Eddy is capable of causing damage, as are sophomores Steven Santa Ana and Dainan Swoope. But when you look at the whole as opposed to the sum of the parts, there simply does not appear to be any clear paths to victory for Elon other than completely going bananas with their three point percentage. While Elon are a good squad capable of beating some decent teams, they've also gone 2-17 against Top 100 RPI teams, and 7-31 against the Top 200, since joining the CAA. That limited upside from an historical perspective coupled with their gameplan is what pushes Elon lower on this list than what might be expected.

Over/under is 154.5. Still Hawks by 12.

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