and in the small print, they show they oversampled democrats +15.

Voted For Obama - 50%
Voted For Romney - 35%

https://www.scribd.com/document/33017054...SJ-release

All in the tank full throttle.

If NBC had Trump within 5, he has to be way up.

(11-06-2016 04:08 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  and in the small print, they show they oversampled democrats +15.

Voted For Obama - 50%
Voted For Romney - 35%

https://www.scribd.com/document/33017054...SJ-release

Dems should be oversampled as there are more people who claim to be democrats but it is not a 15% difference. It is more like 8-9%. If they oversampled by 15% and the margin is 5% then in reality it is a +/-1 and a dead heat.

(11-06-2016 04:31 PM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  

(11-06-2016 04:08 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  and in the small print, they show they oversampled democrats +15.

Voted For Obama - 50%
Voted For Romney - 35%

https://www.scribd.com/document/33017054...SJ-release

Dems should be oversampled as there are more people who claim to be democrats but it is not a 15% difference. It is more like 8-9%. If they oversampled by 15% and the margin is 5% then in reality it is a +/-1 and a dead heat.

How many points did Obama win by nationally? That is the maximum they should be using, because its clear she aint getting nowhere near that turnout model. (It was less than 4 points. )

Use that turnout model, and the NBC poll says Trump is up +6 in this same poll. This is how ridiculous som eo fthe polls have gotten. In order to show her with a 5 point lead, they have to give her a turnout model that is 11 points better than Obama pulled off in '12.

NBC has been the goofiest outlier all election season.

(11-06-2016 04:31 PM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  

(11-06-2016 04:08 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  and in the small print, they show they oversampled democrats +15.

Voted For Obama - 50%
Voted For Romney - 35%

https://www.scribd.com/document/33017054...SJ-release

Dems should be oversampled as there are more people who claim to be democrats but it is not a 15% difference. It is more like 8-9%. If they oversampled by 15% and the margin is 5% then in reality it is a +/-1 and a dead heat.

Research has found that there will be a decent number of people that when asked four years later will say that they voted for the winner rather than the person the actually voted for.

(11-06-2016 07:12 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(11-06-2016 04:31 PM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  

(11-06-2016 04:08 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  and in the small print, they show they oversampled democrats +15.

Voted For Obama - 50%
Voted For Romney - 35%

https://www.scribd.com/document/33017054...SJ-release

Dems should be oversampled as there are more people who claim to be democrats but it is not a 15% difference. It is more like 8-9%. If they oversampled by 15% and the margin is 5% then in reality it is a +/-1 and a dead heat.

Research has found that there will be a decent number of people that when asked four years later will say that they voted for the winner rather than the person the actually voted for.

Polling as a predictive "science" requires the sample polled to be honest.
If people lie about who they voted for previously then polls becomes less reliable and a poor predictor of future behaviors.

(11-06-2016 07:17 PM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  

(11-06-2016 07:12 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(11-06-2016 04:31 PM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  

(11-06-2016 04:08 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  and in the small print, they show they oversampled democrats +15.

Voted For Obama - 50%
Voted For Romney - 35%

https://www.scribd.com/document/33017054...SJ-release

Dems should be oversampled as there are more people who claim to be democrats but it is not a 15% difference. It is more like 8-9%. If they oversampled by 15% and the margin is 5% then in reality it is a +/-1 and a dead heat.

Research has found that there will be a decent number of people that when asked four years later will say that they voted for the winner rather than the person the actually voted for.

Polling as a predictive "science" requires the sample polled to be honest.
If people lie about who they voted for previously then polls becomes less reliable and a poor predictor of future behaviors.

And the argument that a poll over samples one party or the other is total BS because party affiliation to fluid.

(11-06-2016 08:35 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(11-06-2016 07:17 PM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  

(11-06-2016 07:12 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(11-06-2016 04:31 PM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  

(11-06-2016 04:08 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  and in the small print, they show they oversampled democrats +15.

Voted For Obama - 50%
Voted For Romney - 35%

https://www.scribd.com/document/33017054...SJ-release

Dems should be oversampled as there are more people who claim to be democrats but it is not a 15% difference. It is more like 8-9%. If they oversampled by 15% and the margin is 5% then in reality it is a +/-1 and a dead heat.

Research has found that there will be a decent number of people that when asked four years later will say that they voted for the winner rather than the person the actually voted for.

Polling as a predictive "science" requires the sample polled to be honest.
If people lie about who they voted for previously then polls becomes less reliable and a poor predictor of future behaviors.

And the argument that a poll over samples one party or the other is total BS because party affiliation to fluid.

So polling is basically bs because the pollsters can't determine party based on the sample's willingness to lie about prior votes cast and their fluid party affiliation.

Polling has to be even harder this year then due to the sample willingness to lie about past votes, already realized substantial change in party affiliation in the primaries, and on top of that an unwillingness on the part of voters to admit to who they are voting for this year based on the poor quality candidates.

Polling mess.

The only way only 35% of the electorate voted for Romney is if the other 12% are dead. If that's the case, I guess Clinton gets those votes.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

(11-06-2016 04:08 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  and in the small print, they show they oversampled democrats +15.

Voted For Obama - 50%
Voted For Romney - 35%

https://www.scribd.com/document/33017054...SJ-release

2% were not sure. Obviously that's 2 more brain dead dem votes as well. How are you "not sure" who you voted for last election?