10-2 VaTech upsets 12-0 Clemson in the ACC title game.

Penn State wins out, Michigan loses at Iowa, and OSU beat UM in Columbus to close season. 10-2 PSU goes to Big Ten title game...and either they or Wiscy or Nebraska win the Big Ten with an 11-2 record.

10-2 Utah upsets 12-0 Washington in Pac-12 title game.

OU at 10-2 wins the Big 12.

Auburn wins Iron Bowl and goes to SEC title game against Florida. Assuming UF slips up once more, that means there'd also be a 2-loss SEC champ.

The result?
Five 2-loss Power 5 champs.
Bama, OSU, and Louisville all sit at 11-1. Clemson and Washington sit at 12-1.

Discuss...

(Idea derived from Stewart Mandel's column....)

A lot of things have to happen. It's more likely that you get Bama, Clemson, Ohio State or Michigan and Washington. Big 12 gets cut out again.

I'd actually say it's more likely that there are some wild (probably not ALL that I mentioned above) results this month. I believe that only 3 of the 8 teams in the top 4 of the 2014 and 2015 initial CFP polls ended up in the playoff. Instability is more the norm than consistency...

Another article about Big Ten crazy scenarios... http://www.espn.com/blog/bigten/post/_/i...in-big-ten

Washington looks like a lock at this point. Bama could lose @LSU, but I doubt it. Clemson is not losing to a mediocre VT team or to UNC and the rest of the schedule is easy.

I see nothing from Ohio State suggesting that they can beat Michigan. Maybe they will, but their recent play has not been strong. As for Penn State. Michigan scoring PF 373 PA 93. PSU: PF 269 PS 216 Penn State is smoke and mirrors. Lucky not to have 1-2 more losses.

I just don't see Washington as a lock. I mean, they lose to Washington St, they don't even make the Pac 12 title game. Then have to win the title game in quite probably a rematch scenario

(11-01-2016 08:25 AM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  I'd actually say it's more likely that there are some wild (probably not ALL that I mentioned above) results this month. I believe that only 3 of the 8 teams in the top 4 of the 2014 and 2015 initial CFP polls ended up in the playoff. Instability is more the norm than consistency...

Another article about Big Ten crazy scenarios... http://www.espn.com/blog/bigten/post/_/i...in-big-ten

I suspect that the selection committee sets the bolded scenario up on purpose. In their preliminary rankings, they can put top teams from the same division in the top six, knowing that one of them will do their job for them by knocking the other out. That kind of forces a result of all conference champs in the final four.

(11-01-2016 08:45 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I just don't see Washington as a lock. I mean, they lose to Washington St, they don't even make the Pac 12 title game. Then have to win the title game in quite probably a rematch scenario

Be strange if Washington State wins the PAC 12 champ. There is someone that have a say about them who should be considered to go to the playoffs before them. Boise State beat them.

(11-01-2016 08:39 AM)HuskyHawk Wrote:  Clemson is not losing to a mediocre VT team or to UNC and the rest of the schedule is easy.

Clemson tried very hard to lose to a mediocre NC State team at home. It could happen.

I'm a big fan of chaos so I hope the entire scenario happens.

(11-01-2016 08:13 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  A lot of things have to happen. It's more likely that you get Bama, Clemson, Ohio State or Michigan and Washington. Big 12 gets cut out again.

Just pointing out that the Big XII got "cut out" in the first year of the CFP, but Oklahoma was in the CFP last season... So the "cut out again" is debatable at best.

That's why they call them playoffs. No one gets upset when a team gets hot in the conference basketball tournament and steals a championship.

UM might be safe if a two loss team from the west knocks off a one loss OSU in the CCG, even if UM drops the OSU game. Everyone in the B1G would have two losses except UM. Unless Nebraska wins it with one loss, UM has a win over Wisconsin. If they play OSU close, they could get in based on sentiment if they get help from the West winner. They'd need a lot of upsets though, like another UL loss.

(11-01-2016 12:33 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  UM might be safe if a two loss team from the west knocks off a one loss OSU in the CCG, even if UM drops the OSU game. Everyone in the B1G would have two losses except UM. Unless Nebraska wins it with one loss, UM has a win over Wisconsin. If they play OSU close, they could get in based on sentiment if they get help from the West winner. They'd need a lot of upsets though, like another UL loss.

If a 2 loss Wisc team beats OSU in CCG, Wisc would be in the playoffs first before a 1-loss Mich team.

The result?
Five 2-loss Power 5 champs.
Bama, OSU, and Louisville all sit at 11-1. Clemson and Washington sit at 12-1.

First off...I think Clemson and Washington would be out for sure. It hasn't come up yet, but I doubt the committee will look favorably upon "backing in" to the playoffs, ala Oklahoma '03 and Nebraska '01.

11-2 B1G Champ Wisconsin would be in for sure. Tough, close losses, but still winning the B1G + a win over LSU. They would probably be your first seed.

I think Auburn would be your second seed as 11-2 SEC Champs, with wins over Alabama and LSU, and a close loss to Clemson.

Next you'd get Alabama at #3 and Louisville at #4, just because they look like the best teams. Soooo....overall, I think you'd get a mix and compromise of conference champs and "best teams"

#1 Wisconsin vs. #4 Louisville
#2 Auburn vs. #3 Alabama

Alabama once again gets a mulligan!!

(11-01-2016 12:42 PM)goofus Wrote:  

(11-01-2016 12:33 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  UM might be safe if a two loss team from the west knocks off a one loss OSU in the CCG, even if UM drops the OSU game. Everyone in the B1G would have two losses except UM. Unless Nebraska wins it with one loss, UM has a win over Wisconsin. If they play OSU close, they could get in based on sentiment if they get help from the West winner. They'd need a lot of upsets though, like another UL loss.

If a 2 loss Wisc team beats OSU in CCG, Wisc would be in the playoffs first before a 1-loss Mich team.

Probably, as they got two very good losses. They did lose at home to OSU though. I'd agree unless UM loses in similar ultra tight fashion to OSU and the west winner squeaks by OSU. UL could stay ahead of UM as well if they win out as they have a really good loss.

(11-01-2016 12:33 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  UM might be safe if a two loss team from the west knocks off a one loss OSU in the CCG, even if UM drops the OSU game. Everyone in the B1G would have two losses except UM. Unless Nebraska wins it with one loss, UM has a win over Wisconsin. If they play OSU close, they could get in based on sentiment if they get help from the West winner. They'd need a lot of upsets though, like another UL loss.

So...if I'm understanding your scenario correctly, Nebraska loses at OSU Saturday but then wins out. Wisconsin drops another game (Iowa? NW?).
10-2 Nebraska beats 11-1 OSU in Big Ten title game (rematch). Michigan's only loss is at OSU in game 12 of the season.

That's a conundrum for the committee. 11-2 conference champ or 11-1 conference also-ran. They'd love to put both in...or neither, if possible. It's a no-win situation though to choose one or the other.

(11-01-2016 02:06 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  The result?
Five 2-loss Power 5 champs.
Bama, OSU, and Louisville all sit at 11-1. Clemson and Washington sit at 12-1.

First off...I think Clemson and Washington would be out for sure. It hasn't come up yet, but I doubt the committee will look favorably upon "backing in" to the playoffs, ala Oklahoma '03 and Nebraska '01.

11-2 B1G Champ Wisconsin would be in for sure. Tough, close losses, but still winning the B1G + a win over LSU. They would probably be your first seed.

I think Auburn would be your second seed as 11-2 SEC Champs, with wins over Alabama and LSU, and a close loss to Clemson.

Next you'd get Alabama at #3 and Louisville at #4, just because they look like the best teams. Soooo....overall, I think you'd get a mix and compromise of conference champs and "best teams"

#1 Wisconsin vs. #4 Louisville
#2 Auburn vs. #3 Alabama

Alabama once again gets a mulligan!!

Thanks for answering the hard question here, evil vodka.

It seems counter-intuitive to discount Washington and Clemson...although the "backing in" comment is spot on. Conferences want their CCGs to be almighty...and letting a loser into the game (unless there is a clear-cut option, kind of like Michigan in 2006) goes against that desire. But in this case, UW and Clemson's resumes are not dominant...so they are not clear-cut.

I pretty much agree with you about an SEC champ and a Big Ten champ getting in. And Alabama gets a spot, for sure. The fourth spot...I highly doubt it's Louisville. I think they'd rather get an 11-1 Michigan.

The 8-game playoff crowd would get awfully noisy this off-season though if we come anywhere CLOSE to this scenario when December rolls around!

(11-02-2016 06:30 AM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  

(11-01-2016 12:33 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  UM might be safe if a two loss team from the west knocks off a one loss OSU in the CCG, even if UM drops the OSU game. Everyone in the B1G would have two losses except UM. Unless Nebraska wins it with one loss, UM has a win over Wisconsin. If they play OSU close, they could get in based on sentiment if they get help from the West winner. They'd need a lot of upsets though, like another UL loss.

So...if I'm understanding your scenario correctly, Nebraska loses at OSU Saturday but then wins out. Wisconsin drops another game (Iowa? NW?).
10-2 Nebraska beats 11-1 OSU in Big Ten title game (rematch). Michigan's only loss is at OSU in game 12 of the season.

That's a conundrum for the committee. 11-2 conference champ or 11-1 conference also-ran. They'd love to put both in...or neither, if possible. It's a no-win situation though to choose one or the other.

They want Harbaugh in there, that much is certain. Harbaugh versus Saban is the dream matchup. They already have a win over Wisconsin as it is. Let's see how it plays out. I don't like the idea of a two loss champ getting in by default, but a B1G champ is a B1G champ.

Washington with a loss is gone.

So Bama, Clemson, and the B1G champ, followed by:

4. UM 11-1
5. UL 11-1
6. A&M 11-1

Right now, I'd give UL the edge if Clemson goes undefeated, but it would depend on the result of the UM/OSU game. A&M is out for losing by more than two scores to Bama. UM/Bama Semifinal is exactly what the fans want though.

Quote:Clemson is not losing to a mediocre VT team or to UNC and the rest of the schedule is easy.

Clemson had a close game against Troy from the Sun Belt. Wouldn't be a huge shocker. :)

The Utah-Washington game was too close given how depleted we were with injuries. We lost a lot of starters and key contributors early in the season who will be returning to practice over this bye week. Barring any more injuries, I think returning our three defensive starters (including our best player), two starting receivers, 2 starting offensive linemen, both backup running backs, and our kick returner next week will make us a much harder out going forward.

I think we probably drop one to ASU or Oregon and play our way out of a CCG rematch, but if not, probably beat UW in the CCG.