Since the CAA is pretty clumped in the middle of the pack, thought it was worth looking at playoff picture and who others play. Good chance that we have more than the usual four teams at seven wins, but also a good chance that we could be in a very good chance to be chosen in that scenario.

Richmond, 7 wins
JMU
Delaware
@WM

Richmond is already to seven wins, though I think they’re a bit of a paper tiger. Without their main RB they are very pass heavy. Aside from their drubbing of Villanova, they have been very close in all of their games. I think JMU beats them, and although it’s unlikely, if UD beats them, we have a chance to beat them to get to seven wins ourselves. That puts both of us at seven wins with them losing three straight and us winning five straight. Sleepless night for Danny Rocco on November 19 if that plays out.

JMU, 6 wins
Rhode Island
@ Richmond
@ Villanova
Elon

I think they run the table and get a top-2 seed with 10-1 record.

Villanova, 6 wins
@ Maine
JMU
@ Delaware

Only need one win to get to seven, but Maine in November is cold, JMU beats them, and at Delaware in a rivalry game where UD has nothing left to do but play spoiler gets interesting. I don’t think Villanova has really been tested yet and they get two contenders out of their last three games.

Stony Brook, 5 wins
@ UNH
WM
Maine
@ Albany

Stony Brook needs two wins out of their four, but all four of those are contenders. They peaked early with a great win against Richmond. For our purposes, I’ll assume we beat them which means they need to win two out of three. Even if they do that, we would win a head to head with them (though who knows what the committee factors in).


UNH, 5 wins
Stony Brook
Albany
@ Maine

UNH needs two out of three. All three of these teams are contenders and none of the games will be easy.

Maine, 4 wins
@ WM
Villanova
@ Stony Brook
UNH

Maine needs three out of four, all of which against teams still fighting for playoff berths. If we beat them this week, they have to win three straight against potential playoff teams.

Albany, 4 wins
Elon
Delaware
@ UNH
Stony Brook

Albany gets Elon this week, and who knows what happens. Elon beats us, gets blown out by Villanova, then plays UNH close. I’m still not convinced Albany is for real, but three out of four at home is not a bad way to end.

WM, 3 wind
Maine
@ Stony Brook
@ Towson
Richmond

Toughest position in that we have to win out, with three of those games against playoff teams. I think we beat Maine as the offense continues to click. Stony Brook will be a tough test, and the team has to play all four quarters to win that one on Long Island. Towson seems to have fallen off the horse, and hopefully there will be a good turnout from the Northern Virginia, DC, Baltimore crowd. The Richmond game intrigues me; as I mentioned before they are without their top RB and that has changed their offense. QB play not as solid as I thought it would be, but they’re still winning games and that’s all that matters.

I'll get on board with this. That loss to Elon gives us absolutely no wiggle room though.

Yes I agree with this, I feel if Richmond beats JMU they get in no matter of the last 3 games

I think our chances are better to go 4-7 than 7-4. My guess is 5-6 which will be a big disappointment

(10-26-2016 11:29 AM)Tribe32 Wrote:  I think our chances are better to go 4-7 than 7-4. My guess is 5-6 which will be a big disappointment

5-6 does seem most likely at this point. However, the analysis is sound if we win out. Good work on that so we can know who to root for. I cannot choose on JMU at Richmond though. I guess I expect JMU to get revenge from last year. Stony Brook's defense is really good and they will probably run it down our throats. Richmond's offense has been really good against everyone but SB even with the RB out. We need to win and hope for some upsets and try to work our way up to 4th. In about 2 more weeks, we should a good idea of how at large bids are really still up for grabs. It won't matter to us if we can't win Saturday and then follow up with another win in New York. The NH/Stony Brook game is a big one.

A couple notes: I am afraid Richmond is not a Paper Tiger. They are actually down to their 3rd string running back and all he did was run for 114 yards last week. They are passing about the same (they had 33 passes, 32 rushes vs. Elon) and Lauletta sees the whole field very well. They are a well balanced team.

I think there is a good chance JMU might win next week, but it should be a close game. I do agree with you, that JMU should run the table, if they get by Richmond.

The Spides also have have an ace in the hole, as it seems Coach Rocco understands how to defense W&M's offense (he's never lost to W&M while at U of R).

The Tribe can beat any of the final four opponents, but if the offense sputters, we can lose to any of the final four opponents, just as easily.


I see JMU, Richmond, Villanova and Stony Brook all ending up with 7 or more wins. UNH could, but I think this is the year the streak is broken. Albany will need an upset in one of their final two games to reach 7 and we will need to win out. I don't see anyone else getting to the 7 win mark.

I'm still not sold on Richmond. 100+ yards on Elon in a blowout isn't terribly impressive. The couple games I've watched the passing game suffers because they haven't been able to establish as solid of a run. Their game against JMU will be very informative.

Playoffs? Playoffs?

Personally, I think that JMU is underrated and Villanova is overrated. QB or no QB.....Nova lost 23-0 to Richmond. JMU/Richmond on Nov. 5 is for all of the marbles in the CAA.

Interesting discussion here from CSM: http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/13698

(10-27-2016 09:42 AM)Blow Gym rat Wrote:  Interesting discussion here from CSM: http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/13698

They say its possible the CAA gets a 6th bid. If we can finish these final games all with wins, I say we get in. But just barely. Hoping for the best.

With Talley having this his final Season at 'Nova this will motivate the team and they will be in the playoffs. Think Richmond is better than the comments here and will win games.
JMU will have a surprise loss to either Richmond or Nova, IMO to Richmond who has two weeks to prepare or if they beat Richmond a let down at Nova. I also do not believe Albany is real deal. Whoever wins this week the Stony at UNH game will eliminate the other from playoff consideration IMO. I will wait for the Maine game to express opinion on them and the UNH game at Maine will possible to an elimination game to end the season since both schools have 3 losses already.

(10-27-2016 12:11 PM)wmmii Wrote:  With Talley having this his final Season at 'Nova this will motivate the team and they will be in the playoffs. Think Richmond is better than the comments here and will win games.
JMU will have a surprise loss to either Richmond or Nova, IMO to Richmond who has two weeks to prepare or if they beat Richmond a let down at Nova. I also do not believe Albany is real deal. Whoever wins this week the Stony at UNH game will eliminate the other from playoff consideration IMO. I will wait for the Maine game to express opinion on them and the UNH game at Maine will possible to an elimination game to end the season since both schools have 3 losses already.

I wouldn't think the loser of SB at UNH is eliminated(even if it is UNH), but Stony Brook is undefeated in league play and a real threat to win the regular season title. They are very close to a lock for the playoffs if they win 2 of the their last 4 and their schedule is manageable. We are the longest of long shots. We just have to beat Maine. Given what we have seen so far this season, that will be difficult enough. Then, we will have to play by far our best game of the season to beat Stony Brook. They beat a team that has absolutely owned us by 4 touchdowns. If we manage to get to 5-4, then we can actually pay attention to the at large small hopes.

Albany crushes Elon 27-3 and New Hampshire blows out Stony Brook 43-14. Albany still in the picture at 5-3. New Hampshire(6-3) now with a good shot to extend its playoff streak. Stony Brook also 5-3. Too many teams for not enough spots.

The coach for UNH does not get enough credit. Until this year he had to deal with really crappy facilities, and recruit in an area where football is not always king. The school still has high academic standards, and each year the team is solid. He is an alum of UNH as well.

(10-26-2016 11:29 AM)Tribe32 Wrote:  I think our chances are better to go 4-7 than 7-4. My guess is 5-6 which will be a big disappointment

Nostradamus

(10-27-2016 09:51 AM)TribePride52 Wrote:  

(10-27-2016 09:42 AM)Blow Gym rat Wrote:  Interesting discussion here from CSM: http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/13698

They say its possible the CAA gets a 6th bid. If we can finish these final games all with wins, I say we get in. But just barely. Hoping for the best.

Well that didn't happen. Three CAA teams that are in the first four out category. wow.