(10-21-2016 11:55 AM)AlwaysSunny Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 11:48 AM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 11:41 AM)Artemis Silver Bow Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 11:29 AM)eaglewraith Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 11:17 AM)OsageJ Wrote:  I think that may be about as good an explanation into our difficulties as I have seen.

All 3 of those still have to play conference championship games. It would be quite easy for chaos to occur.

Remember only conference champions are considered.

So if troy wins out and wins the sunbelt & W Mich, Houston, Boise win out and lose the there conference title game were in?

There is a solid chance that WMU loses to Toledo. Boise still has a resurgent Wyoming team and Air Force (who is playing a lot like USA) to get past. Houston still has Louisville, UCF and Tulane (I know not the toughest team but they do run an option offense which Houston had trouble against).

Troy's toughest games left are Southern (shouldn't be too difficult with the way Southern's offense has been playing) and App. Assuming Troy wins out and their only loss is by 6 points to what we can assume is a playoff team, it isn't out of the realm of possibility for Troy to leapfrog WMU, Houston, and Boise.

This is where the Troy coaching staff needs to sit down the week of Georgia Southern and explain what throttling them worse than WMU would do for their chances. Houston has been faltering and Boise is destined to lose at least one game they should win every year.

Troy isn't leapfrogging either of those teams unless they lose. Period. And, even if Boise were to lose a game and still win their conference 9.999 times out of 10 they'll still get the invite depending on what Houston does.

I never said that Troy would leapfrog any of them. I laid out what would be the toughest remaining games for those teams that Troy needs to lose to have a chance.

It's fairly likely we won't even fill our bowl tie ins and we are talking about playing in higher ranking bowls?


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(10-21-2016 10:46 AM)Artemis Silver Bow Wrote:  At the current state we are in what would have to happen for a sunbelt school to go to a higher profile bowl game(non sunbelt tie-in) or an access bowl?

If 6 SBC teams qualify for a bowl, and there aren't enough spots filled by other conferences, then it could happen.

There's a special case that might develop regarding USA.

USA gets to 6-6 but with 2 FCS wins. Sun Belt has already filled its bowls using the standard procedure. Plus the add on bowl in Arizona. Less than 78 teams qualify for bowls. USA must be taken for one of the remaining bowls. Its reasonably likely that the bowl left out would be against a P5 team (perhaps an APR qualifier).

In that case, USA can't get taken before the other SBC qualifiers. And the bowl left without a team MUST take USA in that scenario. Before any APR qualifier. And the SBC contracted bowls can't take USA before the qualifying teams.

So if Troy, App, Ga So. Ark State, and one of Idaho/ULL manage to get to 6 wins.....AND then USA manages to get to 6 wins with 2 FCS wins. And there aren't 78 bowl qualifying teams, then its a guarantee that USA would go to some other bowl, AND it would be odds on that we'd be playing a P5.

---

USA's schedule could really screw over a higher placed Sun Belt team. Because the way it works, in order for the a Belt team to move up in the bowls....there would need to be 6 bowl eligible Sun Belt teams....AND one of those 6 can NOT be USA.

I would not assume Ga Southern becomes bowl eligible. If we lose at NMSU tomorrow then our odds are not good at all

(10-21-2016 01:04 PM)WolfBird Wrote:  It's fairly likely we won't even fill our bowl tie ins and we are talking about playing in higher ranking bowls?


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I wouldn't say fairly likely

Troy - is already bowl eligible.
App - needs 2. THey will get them.

Now for the "I think they get there"

stAte - needs 4 wins. They have ULM at home, @ Ga State, NMSU at home, @Troy, @Texas State and @ULL. Four wins out of that is odds on.
Ga Southern - needs 3 wins. They have @ Ga State, ULL, Troy, App, @NMSU and @ Ole Miss. Three wins is probably odds on as well.
Idaho - Needs 2 wins. @App, USA, Ga State, @Texas State, @ULL. I think 50-50 or even better


Now for the maybe teams

USA - Needs 3 wins (there will likely not be enough teams for 80 bowls). Ga State, @ULM, Presbyterian, @Idaho, NMSU. I'll say 50-50 but with huge variability. Beat Ga State and it becomes odds on.

ULL - Needs 4 wins. @Texas State, Idaho, @Ga Southern, @Georgia, Ark State, @ ULM. Looking a bit dicey.

----

We probably won't get 7. Four looks likely (because due to head to head matchups, 2 will get there. I think five is odds on. Six? 40% Seven? Unlikely

(10-21-2016 12:12 PM)eaglewraith Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 12:06 PM)JCGSU Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 11:29 AM)eaglewraith Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 11:17 AM)OsageJ Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 11:11 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  We whiffed on our coaching hire, Ark State decided to not hold a real preseason camp until week 5, and App State and Troy scheduled too difficult Power 5 games. Not much of a chance for this league.

If Houston somehow doesn't win the AAC then Western Michigan or Boise will get it.

I think that may be about as good an explanation into our difficulties as I have seen.

All 3 of those still have to play conference championship games. It would be quite easy for chaos to occur.

Remember only conference champions are considered.

I dont know about this. I thought it was the highest rated G5. I know it is just a big factor for the playoffs but not a disqualifier.

They have to be conference champions. Then the merits of the champions are considered.

More specifically:

Quote:•All displaced conference champions and the highest ranked champion from a non-contract conference, as ranked by the committee, will participate in selected other bowl games and will be assigned to those games by the committee. If berths in the selected other bowl games remain available after those teams have been identified, the highest ranked other teams, as ranked by the committee, will fill those berths in rank order.’(Note: A “displaced conference champion” is a champion of a contract conference that does not qualify for the playoff in a year when its contract bowl hosts a semifinal game.)

Criteria found here: http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/se...e-protocol

Here is the relevant Section:

"Number of Teams to Be Ranked. The committee will rank 25 teams. If no champion of a non-contract conference is among that group, then the committee will compare the five conference champions against each other. The highest ranked of those five teams will be the representative."

(10-21-2016 01:15 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 10:46 AM)Artemis Silver Bow Wrote:  At the current state we are in what would have to happen for a sunbelt school to go to a higher profile bowl game(non sunbelt tie-in) or an access bowl?

If 6 SBC teams qualify for a bowl, and there aren't enough spots filled by other conferences, then it could happen.

There's a special case that might develop regarding USA.

USA gets to 6-6 but with 2 FCS wins. Sun Belt has already filled its bowls using the standard procedure. Plus the add on bowl in Arizona. Less than 78 teams qualify for bowls. USA must be taken for one of the remaining bowls. Its reasonably likely that the bowl left out would be against a P5 team (perhaps an APR qualifier).

In that case, USA can't get taken before the other SBC qualifiers. And the bowl left without a team MUST take USA in that scenario. Before any APR qualifier. And the SBC contracted bowls can't take USA before the qualifying teams.

So if Troy, App, Ga So. Ark State, and one of Idaho/ULL manage to get to 6 wins.....AND then USA manages to get to 6 wins with 2 FCS wins. And there aren't 78 bowl qualifying teams, then its a guarantee that USA would go to some other bowl, AND it would be odds on that we'd be playing a P5.

---

USA's schedule could really screw over a higher placed Sun Belt team. Because the way it works, in order for the a Belt team to move up in the bowls....there would need to be 6 bowl eligible Sun Belt teams....AND one of those 6 can NOT be USA.

I thought there were provisions that would let an SBC out of the bowl tie in if they were invited to a larger bowl. Hence, Troy get picked to fill a slot in a hole left by a P5 school and South would fill in with 2 FCS as wins in the SBC bowl that Troy would vacate....

(10-21-2016 04:12 PM)Usajags Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 01:15 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 10:46 AM)Artemis Silver Bow Wrote:  At the current state we are in what would have to happen for a sunbelt school to go to a higher profile bowl game(non sunbelt tie-in) or an access bowl?

If 6 SBC teams qualify for a bowl, and there aren't enough spots filled by other conferences, then it could happen.

There's a special case that might develop regarding USA.

USA gets to 6-6 but with 2 FCS wins. Sun Belt has already filled its bowls using the standard procedure. Plus the add on bowl in Arizona. Less than 78 teams qualify for bowls. USA must be taken for one of the remaining bowls. Its reasonably likely that the bowl left out would be against a P5 team (perhaps an APR qualifier).

In that case, USA can't get taken before the other SBC qualifiers. And the bowl left without a team MUST take USA in that scenario. Before any APR qualifier. And the SBC contracted bowls can't take USA before the qualifying teams.

So if Troy, App, Ga So. Ark State, and one of Idaho/ULL manage to get to 6 wins.....AND then USA manages to get to 6 wins with 2 FCS wins. And there aren't 78 bowl qualifying teams, then its a guarantee that USA would go to some other bowl, AND it would be odds on that we'd be playing a P5.

---

USA's schedule could really screw over a higher placed Sun Belt team. Because the way it works, in order for the a Belt team to move up in the bowls....there would need to be 6 bowl eligible Sun Belt teams....AND one of those 6 can NOT be USA.

I thought there were provisions that would let an SBC out of the bowl tie in if they were invited to a larger bowl. Hence, Troy get picked to fill a slot in a hole left by a P5 school and South would fill in with 2 FCS as wins in the SBC bowl that Troy would vacate....

We fill all our bowls before we send anyone anywhere else, unless it's a team to NY6.


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For what it's worth, South could win all five games remaining, or we could lose 4 of them, we lose all five we get a new head coach.

It'll be interesting for us...

If these are the other 4 conference champs, then Troy and yes, App State are still in play for NY6 if either wins out. I only included teams with 1 conference loss or less at the moment:

AAC: Temple, UCF, or Tulsa (USF, Navy, Memphis, or Houston would likely have better resumes)

CUSA: I feel Troy or App State would have better resumes than anything any CUSA team could put together

MAC: Akron, Ohio, CMU, or EMU (WMU or Toledo would likely have better resumes)

MWC: Wyoming, New Mexico, UNLV, or Hawaii (Boise would have a better resume, San Diego State probably)

Long story short, we have to hope for championship game upsets, but I always follow it just for fun until it is a definite impossibility. Everyone always forgets only conference champions are considered.

For anyone else who is following along, root for Temple over USF tonight. If USF faces Navy, Memphis, or Houston in the AAC CG, we are toast.

A team has to have one loss and the weak side of other conferences win the championship game in each conference.

(10-21-2016 01:22 PM)GaSoEagle Wrote:  I would not assume Ga Southern becomes bowl eligible. If we lose at NMSU tomorrow then our odds are not good at all

GS is a 2 TD favorite against a terrible defensive team. Unlikely that you lose.

(10-21-2016 05:10 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:  For anyone else who is following along, root for Temple over USF tonight. If USF faces Navy, Memphis, or Houston in the AAC CG, we are toast.

Well the Owls are doing their part. If they come out of the AAC as its champ with 3 losses (including at home vs. Army), that at least provides a little extra hope for the other conference contenders.

(10-21-2016 04:14 PM)WolfBird Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 04:12 PM)Usajags Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 01:15 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 10:46 AM)Artemis Silver Bow Wrote:  At the current state we are in what would have to happen for a sunbelt school to go to a higher profile bowl game(non sunbelt tie-in) or an access bowl?

If 6 SBC teams qualify for a bowl, and there aren't enough spots filled by other conferences, then it could happen.

There's a special case that might develop regarding USA.

USA gets to 6-6 but with 2 FCS wins. Sun Belt has already filled its bowls using the standard procedure. Plus the add on bowl in Arizona. Less than 78 teams qualify for bowls. USA must be taken for one of the remaining bowls. Its reasonably likely that the bowl left out would be against a P5 team (perhaps an APR qualifier).

In that case, USA can't get taken before the other SBC qualifiers. And the bowl left without a team MUST take USA in that scenario. Before any APR qualifier. And the SBC contracted bowls can't take USA before the qualifying teams.

So if Troy, App, Ga So. Ark State, and one of Idaho/ULL manage to get to 6 wins.....AND then USA manages to get to 6 wins with 2 FCS wins. And there aren't 78 bowl qualifying teams, then its a guarantee that USA would go to some other bowl, AND it would be odds on that we'd be playing a P5.

---

USA's schedule could really screw over a higher placed Sun Belt team. Because the way it works, in order for the a Belt team to move up in the bowls....there would need to be 6 bowl eligible Sun Belt teams....AND one of those 6 can NOT be USA.

I thought there were provisions that would let an SBC out of the bowl tie in if they were invited to a larger bowl. Hence, Troy get picked to fill a slot in a hole left by a P5 school and South would fill in with 2 FCS as wins in the SBC bowl that Troy would vacate....

We fill all our bowls before we send anyone anywhere else, unless it's a team to NY6.


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So in the SBC fills 5 slots using traditional means, then USA qualifies as a 6-6 team....then USA is the team that MUST go elsewhere...

(10-22-2016 09:44 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 04:14 PM)WolfBird Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 04:12 PM)Usajags Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 01:15 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 10:46 AM)Artemis Silver Bow Wrote:  At the current state we are in what would have to happen for a sunbelt school to go to a higher profile bowl game(non sunbelt tie-in) or an access bowl?

If 6 SBC teams qualify for a bowl, and there aren't enough spots filled by other conferences, then it could happen.

There's a special case that might develop regarding USA.

USA gets to 6-6 but with 2 FCS wins. Sun Belt has already filled its bowls using the standard procedure. Plus the add on bowl in Arizona. Less than 78 teams qualify for bowls. USA must be taken for one of the remaining bowls. Its reasonably likely that the bowl left out would be against a P5 team (perhaps an APR qualifier).

In that case, USA can't get taken before the other SBC qualifiers. And the bowl left without a team MUST take USA in that scenario. Before any APR qualifier. And the SBC contracted bowls can't take USA before the qualifying teams.

So if Troy, App, Ga So. Ark State, and one of Idaho/ULL manage to get to 6 wins.....AND then USA manages to get to 6 wins with 2 FCS wins. And there aren't 78 bowl qualifying teams, then its a guarantee that USA would go to some other bowl, AND it would be odds on that we'd be playing a P5.

---

USA's schedule could really screw over a higher placed Sun Belt team. Because the way it works, in order for the a Belt team to move up in the bowls....there would need to be 6 bowl eligible Sun Belt teams....AND one of those 6 can NOT be USA.

I thought there were provisions that would let an SBC out of the bowl tie in if they were invited to a larger bowl. Hence, Troy get picked to fill a slot in a hole left by a P5 school and South would fill in with 2 FCS as wins in the SBC bowl that Troy would vacate....

We fill all our bowls before we send anyone anywhere else, unless it's a team to NY6.


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So in the SBC fills 5 slots using traditional means, then USA qualifies as a 6-6 team....then USA is the team that MUST go elsewhere...

At that point deals can and probably would be made. Similar in how we kept sending the champ to Mobile even though that's not where they historically should have gone.


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(10-22-2016 09:46 AM)WolfBird Wrote:  

(10-22-2016 09:44 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 04:14 PM)WolfBird Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 04:12 PM)Usajags Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 01:15 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  If 6 SBC teams qualify for a bowl, and there aren't enough spots filled by other conferences, then it could happen.

There's a special case that might develop regarding USA.

USA gets to 6-6 but with 2 FCS wins. Sun Belt has already filled its bowls using the standard procedure. Plus the add on bowl in Arizona. Less than 78 teams qualify for bowls. USA must be taken for one of the remaining bowls. Its reasonably likely that the bowl left out would be against a P5 team (perhaps an APR qualifier).

In that case, USA can't get taken before the other SBC qualifiers. And the bowl left without a team MUST take USA in that scenario. Before any APR qualifier. And the SBC contracted bowls can't take USA before the qualifying teams.

So if Troy, App, Ga So. Ark State, and one of Idaho/ULL manage to get to 6 wins.....AND then USA manages to get to 6 wins with 2 FCS wins. And there aren't 78 bowl qualifying teams, then its a guarantee that USA would go to some other bowl, AND it would be odds on that we'd be playing a P5.

---

USA's schedule could really screw over a higher placed Sun Belt team. Because the way it works, in order for the a Belt team to move up in the bowls....there would need to be 6 bowl eligible Sun Belt teams....AND one of those 6 can NOT be USA.

I thought there were provisions that would let an SBC out of the bowl tie in if they were invited to a larger bowl. Hence, Troy get picked to fill a slot in a hole left by a P5 school and South would fill in with 2 FCS as wins in the SBC bowl that Troy would vacate....

We fill all our bowls before we send anyone anywhere else, unless it's a team to NY6.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So in the SBC fills 5 slots using traditional means, then USA qualifies as a 6-6 team....then USA is the team that MUST go elsewhere...

At that point deals can and probably would be made. Similar in how we kept sending the champ to Mobile even though that's not where they historically should have gone.


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It depends on the order of the picks too. If the NCAA says..fill all your slots first, then we will add new qualifiers....then USA might be the 'must take' team. If its 'okay - we know USA is qualified...so treat them like everyone else, then perhaps a deal can be made. And if USA gets to 7 wins, its kind of irrelevant.

Ok, what bowl is going to make a deal for Troy? The Birmingham Bowl? We know that, sadly, that bowls would rather have a 6-7 Iowa State team travel 1000 miles to play in Memphis than a good Ark State team travel 100 miles. This isn't a dig on Troy. But rather a sad reflection on the G5. Birmingham, Music City, Liberty (doubtful), Independence would be the potential upgrade matchups I suppose.

(10-22-2016 09:54 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-22-2016 09:46 AM)WolfBird Wrote:  

(10-22-2016 09:44 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 04:14 PM)WolfBird Wrote:  

(10-21-2016 04:12 PM)Usajags Wrote:  I thought there were provisions that would let an SBC out of the bowl tie in if they were invited to a larger bowl. Hence, Troy get picked to fill a slot in a hole left by a P5 school and South would fill in with 2 FCS as wins in the SBC bowl that Troy would vacate....

We fill all our bowls before we send anyone anywhere else, unless it's a team to NY6.


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So in the SBC fills 5 slots using traditional means, then USA qualifies as a 6-6 team....then USA is the team that MUST go elsewhere...

At that point deals can and probably would be made. Similar in how we kept sending the champ to Mobile even though that's not where they historically should have gone.


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It depends on the order of the picks too. If the NCAA says..fill all your slots first, then we will add new qualifiers....then USA might be the 'must take' team. If its 'okay - we know USA is qualified...so treat them like everyone else, then perhaps a deal can be made. And if USA gets to 7 wins, its kind of irrelevant.

Ok, what bowl is going to make a deal for Troy? The Birmingham Bowl?

Honestly, I think it's hard to speculate anything Bowl related at this point.

I'm about 85% confident that we will not produce an extra bowl eligible team so I haven't given a lot of thought to game shuffling.


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At least 3 bowl reps were at Ladd Thursday night. Camellia, DG, and Cure Bowls. With that stadium 3/4ths full, more will take note of how well Troy will travel postseason.

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(10-22-2016 01:18 PM)trojanbrutha Wrote:  At least 3 bowl reps were at Ladd Thursday night. Camellia, DG, and Cure Bowls. With that stadium 3/4ths full, more will take note of how well Troy will travel postseason.

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They had to be super impressed. Plus our past history of bowl travel to boot