(09-11-2016 03:41 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Here's where I see it shaking out

First, the locks. These teams will need to experience massive injuries, some sort of organizational collapse, or probation to avoid the bowls this year.

1) Ga So - 98% - a virtual lock at this point.
2) App - 95% - again, a virtual lock

The next two look reasonably good at this point. But business needs to be taken care of. Missing a bowl would be very disappointing at this point

3) USA - 77% - win at ULL and USA's chances go up to 90%, lose and they fall to 65%. Also note that our FCS payday win happens to be Nicholls. I think we take care of them, but yuck.
4) Troy - 72% - win at USM and Troy moves to 90%, lose and it falls to 65%. Difference between the two ratings is because the jump ball is the game they have against each other, and its in Mobile.

Bowl eligibility looks iffy at this point

5) Ark State 60% - lose at USU and you guys move down to 40%.
6) Texas St 55% - unless you pull off an upset in the next 2 weeks, you'll have to sweat it for a while.

Better win now

7) ULL 45% - win vs USA and ULL goes to 55%, lose and you guys fall into the 35% range. The next two games are vs USA and at Tulane. Lose both of them and you're figuring out what to do with Hud and looking forward to basketball and baseball. Win both, and its just like good old days at ULL (you'll likely be bowling).

I'm not seeing it this year unless something significant changes or massive upsets take place at the following schools.

8) ULM (Not putting a percentage on this). They've looked bad, but their schedule is somewhat doable if they catch fire. Idaho, Texas State, USA, ULL at home and at Ga State gets them there. Lose any of those and they'll probably have to figure out how to steal a win from @app, or @arst. They're probably going to start off 1-4.

9) Ga State (No percentage calculated). They'll probably start off 0-4 barring some shocking upset. They get to 6 with Tenn-Martin, ULM at home, @Idaho, Texas State, and stAte. Plus ONE from @USA, @Troy, or Ga Southern or App. Basically they lose any games from group one and they're pretty much done. Ranked at 9 here because they can get to 6 with only 1 road win in this group.

10) Idaho (No percentage calculated). Schedule is somewhat manageable if they decided to show up. But just about every path to 6 wins involves winning at UNLV.

11) NMSU (No percentage calculated). This sucks for them because they're probably the best of the bottom four at this point. The problem is that their schedule blows. Right now, I have them as decided underdogs vs App and Ga Southern, and on the road at Texas A&M, USA, Ark State, Kentucky, and Troy. They'll need to win three of these on the road unless they pull off a massive upset at Kentucky or vs App or Ga Southern. Its a tall order. Beating Kentucky would be really key.

Good write up.

I have no issue with Turner as long as it doesn't raise my taxes.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

(09-11-2016 09:39 PM)Pounce FTW Wrote:  

(09-11-2016 11:35 AM)ark30inf Wrote:  I always thought that we were getting a raw deal with people talking about Knighten leaving and ignoring the rest of our team but treating Arbuckle leaving like it was no big deal.

Looks like everyone was right and wrong.

That's an interesting point.

(09-11-2016 01:20 PM)SBEagle Wrote:  As a Ga Southern fan, if I answered your question honestly I would be accused of being obsessed, a jerk, jealous, etc... Not necessarily by you Pounce.

Well now I'm really interested in what your honest answer is. I'm imagining it having something to do with bad karma we've earned to balance out the Turner Field deal.

(09-11-2016 03:37 PM)eaglewraith Wrote:  I've seen option offenses dominate ToP and still lose quite convincingly. The defenses had no issues in those games.

Once again, what's the problem?

If your implication is that our defense still comes up lacking (in skill or endurance), even when their time on the field is considered, you may be right. But the idea that defense tires more easily than offense, who gets to control the plays and the pace (and knows what's going to happen each play), is a piece of long-accepted football conventional wisdom. I'm guessing maybe you're pushing for a specific reaction but figured I'd throw that out anyway. (Also, whether that wisdom has ever actually been demonstrated with real numbers, I'm not sure. I do remember a piece on Football Outsiders a few years ago where the numbers looked at didn't hold up the idea that more rest actually helped defenses at all, but I'm sure there are a lot more data that can be considered.)

I have a feeling he's going to refer to Arbuckle. Like it or not, losing Arbuckle is a HUGE deal that I don't think anyone on ya'lls side of the fence has really realized. You had a beyond anemic rushing attack last year that was masked by a really special player. The kid was in the film room the first day he arrived, and I believe he was dragging WR's and all in there with him. I haven't heard anyone talking about any of that with Winchester or Manning. For all the posting pictures of nukes going off and all with the announcement that Manning was transferring, there really hasn't been much to show from him. It doesn't look like the knowledge of what needs to happen is there either.

I'm not sure that your player development is there either. Your WR's have come into the program with a ton of talent, and really shined when Arbuckle was leading them. You had a name guy as an OC that appears to be a lame duck...seriously what even happened to him? It's like a lot of the decisions that have plagued Georgia State....go with the name and none of the substance.

At this point, ya'll might be better served abandoning trying to run the ball. It's a wasted down for your team every time they run it. Seriously.

As for my jabbing at panama, a lot of it is being facetious. However, the offense still has to go out there and man up against the defense every play as well so there's some level of truth to it. Also, on AF's first 2 possessions Saturday, ya'll let them go 14 and 15 plays respectively....pretty much all in the first quarter. Your defense was giving up ~5.1 ypp. The defense gave up 5.77 ypp for the entire game, so your efforts at the beginning of the game weren't much different than how it finished. What I'm trying to get someone to maybe realize is that there's fundamentally some issues in your defense. They keep letting teams move on them. And 5 ypp is not good at all, especially against a team that's going to run you to death like AF....you're playing right into their gameplan. Unfortunately, we're not far enough into the season for S&P or FEI to be updated for offense/defense individually or you'd likely be able to see a few more trends as well.