Here is a dumb formula to predict the AAC standings this year. Its far from perfect, but is based on factoids, not opinions. So we'll see if this works a few months from now.

What I do is take the number of conference wins (2015) plus the number of returning starters (including kickers) and compare them to each team in the league.

The idea is simplicity. Something that everyone can easily grasp and easily predict the final outcome at seasons end.

So here it is.

AAC West
Team-----------Starters Returning-----Conf Wins----Total----Rank
Houston--------------12---------------------8------------20------1
Memphis--------------15--------------------5-------------20-----1
Tulsa------------------16--------------------3-------------19-----3
SMU#-----------------16--------------------1-------------17-----4
Navy-------------------9---------------------7-------------16-----5
Tulane#---------------15--------------------0-------------15-----6


AAC East
UCONN----------------18---------------------4-------------22-----1
USF--------------------15---------------------6-------------21-----2
Temple----------------14---------------------7-------------21-----2
Cincy*#----------------15--------------------4-------------19-----4
UCF*-------------------19---------------------0-------------19-----4
ECU*#-----------------13---------------------3-------------16-----6

*AAC (East) teams we play.* #AAC teams we play at home#.

Source - PSCFBM

I agree with Tulane......SMU could be better than last year.......Tulsa and Houston should be better......Memphis is a little bit of a question mark, should be good......Navy is the biggest question mark but they are generally pretty good with their offense that people only play against once a year. Overall a pretty good division for any conference!!

Absolutely correct from my seat too. The imperfection is that it doesn't figure in new coaches, who graduated (not just how many) and other changes/intangibles (such as weather of course). Memphis should have some growing pains with the loss of Lynch at QB and their very good coach replaced by a rookie. The down side to that contest is its in Memphis, not Tulsa. BTW I'm going to make every effort to be in Memphis when we play them, hope I see lots of TU fans as well.

I use this formula only for the simplicity and the ease of understanding. But I'm also like Phil Steele in that its not the only formula I tend to look at. Things are getting ready to change in a hurry come September 3rd vs SJS at Chapman Stadium. We'll see very quickly if our defense has made the vast improvement we think has occurred.

Bump

Time to update the rabidTU Formula for success - or the way to have a preseason predictions formula that makes some sense.

One slight change this season for me is to simplify a little more than last year and include total games rather than just AAC games. So that tweek is included here. But the concept of combining wins and starters returning is still intact.

So wo further ado, the 2017 RabidTU Formula for Success.


Team-----------------------------2016 Wins----------------------Starters Returning for 2017--------------Total Points

East

USF ---------------------------------11-------------------------------------16-----------------------------------27

Temple------------------------------10-------------------------------------10-----------------------------------20

UCF-----------------------------------6--------------------------------------13-----------------------------------19

UCONN-------------------------------3--------------------------------------14-----------------------------------17

Cincinnati-----------------------------4-------------------------------------11------------------------------------15

ECU-----------------------------------3--------------------------------------11------------------------------------14


West

Houston-------------------------------9------------------------------------15--------------------------------------24

Tulsa----------------------------------10-----------------------------------13-------------------------------------23

Memphis------------------------------8-------------------------------------15-------------------------------------23

Navy-----------------------------------9------------------------------------12-------------------------------------21

Tulane---------------------------------4-------------------------------------16-------------------------------------20

SMU------------------------------------5-------------------------------------14-------------------------------------19



So using the above formula, USF would host Houston in Tampa and the winner would be AAC champions and hopefully get a NYD bowl bid.

Source - PSCFBM

(06-28-2017 07:14 PM)rabidTU2 Wrote:  Time to update the rabidTU Formula for success - or the way to have a preseason predictions formula that makes some sense.

One slight change this season for me is to simplify a little more than last year and include total games rather than just AAC games. So that tweek is included here. But the concept of combining wins and starters returning is still intact.

So wo further ado, the 2017 RabidTU Formula for Success.


Team-----------------------------2016 Wins----------------------Starters Returning for 2017--------------Total Points

East

USF ---------------------------------11-------------------------------------16-----------------------------------27

Temple------------------------------10-------------------------------------10-----------------------------------20

UCF-----------------------------------6--------------------------------------13-----------------------------------19

UCONN-------------------------------3--------------------------------------14-----------------------------------17

Cincinnati-----------------------------4-------------------------------------11------------------------------------15

ECU-----------------------------------3--------------------------------------11------------------------------------14


West

Houston-------------------------------9------------------------------------15--------------------------------------24

Tulsa----------------------------------10-----------------------------------13-------------------------------------23

Memphis------------------------------8-------------------------------------15-------------------------------------23

Navy-----------------------------------9------------------------------------12-------------------------------------21

Tulane---------------------------------4-------------------------------------16-------------------------------------20

SMU------------------------------------5-------------------------------------14-------------------------------------19



So using the above formula, USF would host Houston in Tampa and the winner would be AAC champions and hopefully get a NYD bowl bid.

Source - PSCFBM

Using the above formula, we could project the AAC wins and losses on our schedule.

Wins--------------------Losses------------------Tossups

Temple------------------USF---------------------Memphis

UCONN------------------Houston

Navy

Tulane

SMU


So the projected AAC wins are 5 or 6 (with Memphis win) and losses 2 or 3 (with Memphis loss). But the good news here is that we will be playing both Memphis AND Houston at home. The USF game is very problematic.

Its hard for me to grasp some of the predictions in the media right now and th idea of TU being picked 4th in the west. Especially having Memphis picked over us. My reasoning is that if anyone actually saw that game, we were by far the better team on both sides of the ball. It was played in Memphis under ideal conditions weatherwise and we basically ran the ball for most of our big plays. We were the more physical team and we vitually doubled the score on them (59-30). So i suppose i can't see the rationale of the "pickers" picking them higher than us or winning the west compared to us. We will play them at TU this year (along with Navy and Houston), so all the needles should point to us winning or at least being advantaged in those games. I could see Navy or Houston winning the west, but I don't think memphis is a logical pick - at least ahead of us. Just my opine.

I just think its going to be a huge advantage playing Memphis, Navy and Houston in T-Town this year. I could see us losing that USF game, but they are my pick to win the AAC anyway, but the west could/should be "advantage" Tulsa. I think the "pickers" are assuming losing Dane is a huge blow and it might prove out that way, but they don't take into account we are a run first team with a stockpile of maybe the best runners we've had in many years.

I think the west will be somewhat close, but again, we beat Memphis big, Navy on the road was a referee fiasco and Houston was the same in Houston.

But everything rests on that QB. If he can get the ball to open receivers, we will be fine. What i don't like is the scheduler and the way he sets that up with opening games that disadvantage us and road contests that make little sense (see Toledo - which is this years NC A@T).

IMO

(07-18-2017 10:51 AM)rabidTU2 Wrote:  Its hard for me to grasp some of the predictions in the media right now and th idea of TU being picked 4th in the west. Especially having Memphis picked over us. My reasoning is that if anyone actually saw that game, we were by far the better team on both sides of the ball. It was played in Memphis under ideal conditions weatherwise and we basically ran the ball for most of our big plays. We were the more physical team and we vitually doubled the score on them (59-30). So i suppose i can't see the rationale of the "pickers" picking them higher than us or winning the west compared to us. We will play them at TU this year (along with Navy and Houston), so all the needles should point to us winning or at least being advantaged in those games. I could see Navy or Houston winning the west, but I don't think memphis is a logical pick - at least ahead of us. Just my opine.

I just think its going to be a huge advantage playing Memphis, Navy and Houston in T-Town this year. I could see us losing that USF game, but they are my pick to win the AAC anyway, but the west could/should be "advantage" Tulsa. I think the "pickers" are assuming losing Dane is a huge blow and it might prove out that way, but they don't take into account we are a run first team with a stockpile of maybe the best runners we've had in many years.

I think the west will be somewhat close, but again, we beat Memphis big, Navy on the road was a referee fiasco and Houston was the same in Houston.

But everything rests on that QB. If he can get the ball to open receivers, we will be fine. What i don't like is the scheduler and the way he sets that up with opening games that disadvantage us and road contests that make little sense (see Toledo - which is this years NC A@T).

IMO

Memphis should be tough this year. Most people have them picked to win the West. Although that's probably mostly based on them returning their QB and Tulsa, Navy, and Houston having new ones. And they should have an improved defense. But I do think Tulsa is too low. However, I can understand how we'd end up fourth. The West is going to be a dog fight this year and we have home advantage. I like our chances.

I wouldn't knock Toledo too bad. That's going to be a hard game for us to win. I can understand not liking the distance and having no relations with that region. But it will be a good resume builder if we can muster a victory.

Toledo Game in Toledo, Ohio (Sept 16, 2017)

Driving distance "one way" - 864 miles (1,728 total).

Number of players on our FB team from Ohio (recruiting) - 0

Number of games played between them (rivalry factor) - 2 (Last game played - 1964)

Venue - Glass Bowl (26,038) Source - PSCFBM