ESPN and FOX aren't happy with the Big 12's plan to expand

Well, I guess that answers my question. I suppose I was giving the leaders of the Big 12 too much credit.

I think the only question left is who bails at the end of the GOR? Will it be the powers of the league or will they still have to take a few little brothers with them?

Also in play, is this a negotiating tactic by the powers to break the GOR early?

(08-01-2016 02:05 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  ESPN and FOX aren't happy with the Big 12's plan to expand

Well, I guess that answers my question. I suppose I was giving the leaders of the Big 12 too much credit.

I think the only question left is who bails at the end of the GOR? Will it be the powers of the league or will they still have to take a few little brothers with them?

Also in play, is this a negotiating tactic by the powers to break the GOR early?

Nothing ESPN or Fox can do to stop this expansion. Pro rata is in the contract and no extension on the GOR is required. B12 is gonna make a money grab and give the conference a chance to develop other programs so if OU or UT decide to leave at end of GOR, their little brothers will have a viable home.

FWIW, Mhver3 tweeted Fox/ESPN offering a 17% increase and $40M CCG if B12 stays at 10 members and removes pro rata clause. Fox/ESPN don't have the negotiating leverage this time.

(08-01-2016 05:57 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(08-01-2016 02:05 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  ESPN and FOX aren't happy with the Big 12's plan to expand

Well, I guess that answers my question. I suppose I was giving the leaders of the Big 12 too much credit.

I think the only question left is who bails at the end of the GOR? Will it be the powers of the league or will they still have to take a few little brothers with them?

Also in play, is this a negotiating tactic by the powers to break the GOR early?

Nothing ESPN or Fox can do to stop this expansion. Pro rata is in the contract and no extension on the GOR is required. B12 is gonna make a money grab and give the conference a chance to develop other programs so if OU or UT decide to leave at end of GOR, their little brothers will have a viable home.

FWIW, Mhver3 tweeted Fox/ESPN offering a 17% increase and $40M CCG if B12 stays at 10 members and removes pro rata clause. Fox/ESPN don't have the negotiating leverage this time.

They do have the leverage, but not just the financial bribe they usually try. If the two of them cooperated to find the 10 members of the Big 12 a new conference home they would get out more cheaply than they will right now, and the conference could be dissolved.

If the Big 12 adds 4 for pro rata then the networks will have 4 ticked off G5 schools to deal with in 8-10 years, and they will likely have 6 very ticked off left behinds in the Big 12. The legal ramifications of that will be costly even if they win.

I'm still a little floored that the other Big 12 members would go along with this without the blessing of the networks. OU and UT are mostly immune from any blowback, but most of the others are likely to remain in the Big 12 and another round of negotiations is coming. Not only will they have basically zero leverage when the next deal comes up, but they've gone to the trouble of ticking off the only entities that could help them remain at the P5 level. Brilliant.

(08-01-2016 06:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  They do have the leverage, but not just the financial bribe they usually try. If the two of them cooperated to find the 10 members of the Big 12 a new conference home they would get out more cheaply than they will right now, and the conference could be dissolved.

If the Big 12 adds 4 for pro rata then the networks will have 4 ticked off G5 schools to deal with in 8-10 years, and they will likely have 6 very ticked off left behinds in the Big 12. The legal ramifications of that will be costly even if they win.

I can see how the networks would be interested in negotiating an exit for everyone and putting this all to bed.

If they demand the placement of all 10 then I think this is a good way to do it:

SEC takes Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Cincinnati

ACC takes Texas, Baylor, Houston, West Virginia

PAC takes Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State, Iowa State

The SEC, B1G, ACC & PAC hold a snake draft & they each must select 2. That SC special would bring in huge ratings!

(08-01-2016 07:07 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I'm still a little floored that the other Big 12 members would go along with this without the blessing of the networks. OU and UT are mostly immune from any blowback, but most of the others are likely to remain in the Big 12 and another round of negotiations is coming. Not only will they have basically zero leverage when the next deal comes up, but they've gone to the trouble of ticking off the only entities that could help them remain at the P5 level. Brilliant.

This is why I think that the Big 12 must persuade Arkansas and one other P5. Everyone else outside of OU and UT are in a pickle. They simply cannot afford to let OU and UT walk away from the Big 12 in 7 years. If they do. They stand to lose millions. That's why I believe they will try and expand with Arkansas, Nebraska, Colorado state, Houston, and eventually Tulane. Three of them will make around 10 million for the life of the current contract. Arkansas and Nebraska will make around 15 to 20 million more as away to pay them to sign up to the Big 12 ( Bride? ). West Virginia will be allowed to exit the Big 12 without any legal issue. But they will lose at least one year of conference revenue. This money will be paid to either OU and UT, or it will be used to build a conference network. That's why you haven't been hearing anything about it. If they can't get this done. Then the Big 12 is dead.

(08-01-2016 06:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-01-2016 05:57 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(08-01-2016 02:05 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  ESPN and FOX aren't happy with the Big 12's plan to expand

Well, I guess that answers my question. I suppose I was giving the leaders of the Big 12 too much credit.

I think the only question left is who bails at the end of the GOR? Will it be the powers of the league or will they still have to take a few little brothers with them?

Also in play, is this a negotiating tactic by the powers to break the GOR early?

Nothing ESPN or Fox can do to stop this expansion. Pro rata is in the contract and no extension on the GOR is required. B12 is gonna make a money grab and give the conference a chance to develop other programs so if OU or UT decide to leave at end of GOR, their little brothers will have a viable home.

FWIW, Mhver3 tweeted Fox/ESPN offering a 17% increase and $40M CCG if B12 stays at 10 members and removes pro rata clause. Fox/ESPN don't have the negotiating leverage this time.

They do have the leverage, but not just the financial bribe they usually try. If the two of them cooperated to find the 10 members of the Big 12 a new conference home they would get out more cheaply than they will right now, and the conference could be dissolved.

If the Big 12 adds 4 for pro rata then the networks will have 4 ticked off G5 schools to deal with in 8-10 years, and they will likely have 6 very ticked off left behinds in the Big 12. The legal ramifications of that will be costly even if they win.

Future contracts are not guaranteed. TV broadcasters and schools leaving would only be responsible if they damage an existing contract. The incoming G5 schools know what they are getting in to. They have to prove they are worthy of a nice pay check when the next negotiating period begins.

Now, if the networks and schools collude to dissolve the conference and a team or two don't find new homes, then there could be a case for damages.

(08-01-2016 09:38 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(08-01-2016 06:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-01-2016 05:57 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(08-01-2016 02:05 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  ESPN and FOX aren't happy with the Big 12's plan to expand

Well, I guess that answers my question. I suppose I was giving the leaders of the Big 12 too much credit.

I think the only question left is who bails at the end of the GOR? Will it be the powers of the league or will they still have to take a few little brothers with them?

Also in play, is this a negotiating tactic by the powers to break the GOR early?

Nothing ESPN or Fox can do to stop this expansion. Pro rata is in the contract and no extension on the GOR is required. B12 is gonna make a money grab and give the conference a chance to develop other programs so if OU or UT decide to leave at end of GOR, their little brothers will have a viable home.

FWIW, Mhver3 tweeted Fox/ESPN offering a 17% increase and $40M CCG if B12 stays at 10 members and removes pro rata clause. Fox/ESPN don't have the negotiating leverage this time.

They do have the leverage, but not just the financial bribe they usually try. If the two of them cooperated to find the 10 members of the Big 12 a new conference home they would get out more cheaply than they will right now, and the conference could be dissolved.

If the Big 12 adds 4 for pro rata then the networks will have 4 ticked off G5 schools to deal with in 8-10 years, and they will likely have 6 very ticked off left behinds in the Big 12. The legal ramifications of that will be costly even if they win.

Future contracts are not guaranteed. TV broadcasters and schools leaving would only be responsible if they damage an existing contract. The incoming G5 schools know what they are getting in to. They have to prove they are worthy of a nice pay check when the next negotiating period begins.

Now, if the networks and schools collude to dissolve the conference and a team or two don't find new homes, then there could be a case for damages.

I'm not so sure about that. Nothing can be assumed to be binding until the contracts are signed or at least earnest investment for a future contractual agreement is made. So far none of that exists. I think the would be SOL.

(08-01-2016 07:52 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  The SEC, B1G, ACC & PAC hold a snake draft & they each must select 2. That SC special would bring in huge ratings!

That would actually be good summer TV. Still, I think 10Mtn point about there only being 3 real value properties and 4 conferences remains a sticking point. I can see the SEC taking one B-/C+ program, but two? That seems a bit of a stretch. Is there really enough money to get anyone to take the like of Baylor, KSU and WVU?

(08-02-2016 09:28 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(08-01-2016 07:52 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  The SEC, B1G, ACC & PAC hold a snake draft & they each must select 2. That SC special would bring in huge ratings!

That would actually be good summer TV. Still, I think 10Mtn point about there only being 3 real value properties and 4 conferences remains a sticking point. I can see the SEC taking one B-/C+ program, but two? That seems a bit of a stretch. Is there really enough money to get anyone to take the like of Baylor, KSU and WVU?

Actually, I don't think Baylor is that bad of a property. Outside of the recent scandals, they've invested a lot in athletics and they are in the $100M club as far as revenue goes. They aren't UT or A&M, but they're fairly popular in a very large state so they've got that going for them.

I agree on KSU.

WVU is an enigma. If their entire fan base was concentrated in one market then they could be pretty valuable.

(08-02-2016 10:01 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Actually, I don't think Baylor is that bad of a property. Outside of the recent scandals, they've invested a lot in athletics and they are in the $100M club as far as revenue goes. They aren't UT or A&M, but they're fairly popular in a very large state so they've got that going for them.

I agree on KSU.

WVU is an enigma. If their entire fan base was concentrated in one market then they could be pretty valuable.

Would the PAC, B1G or ACC look at Baylor as valuable? The only one of them that would IMO is the ACC contingent upon reaching some type of agreement with Texas. I just don't want the SEC used as the also-ran conference where the least desirable parts of the B12 are parted to. I'd rather stay at 14 than be apart of that kind of deal.

Oklahoma, Oklahoma St & Baylor to the SEC.

Kansas & Missouri to the B1G.

WV to the ACC with the P4 help of forcing ND football membership. (Champs only CFP?)

Texas, TT, TCU & Iowa St to the PAC.

P4 x 16 with K St being left out for ND. Fair compromise?

(08-02-2016 10:56 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  Oklahoma, Oklahoma St & Baylor to the SEC.

Kansas & Missouri to the B1G.

WV to the ACC with the P4 help of forcing ND football membership. (Champs only CFP?)

Texas, TT, TCU & Iowa St to the PAC.

P4 x 16 with K St being left out for ND. Fair compromise?

Oklahoma & Oklahoma State to the SEC.
West Virginia to the ACC.
Kansas and Iowa State to the Big 10.
Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech & Kansas State to the PAC.

Baylor is relegated until they get their stuff together and the final round of movement to a 4 x 18 occurs.

Then the Big 10 takes Connecticut and Buffalo.
The PAC takes New Mexico and either Nevada or U.N.L.V.
The ACC adds Notre Dame, Cincinnati, and Tulane
The SEC adds Baylor and East Carolina.

How 'bout them apples?

(08-02-2016 10:56 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  Oklahoma, Oklahoma St & Baylor to the SEC.

Kansas & Missouri to the B1G.

WV to the ACC with the P4 help of forcing ND football membership. (Champs only CFP?)

Texas, TT, TCU & Iowa St to the PAC.

P4 x 16 with K St being left out for ND. Fair compromise?

Its not fair and its not a circus either....

If no one can be relegated out of the P5, then I just don't see why the networks just don't let the B12 soldier on. When the contract is up in 2025, the TV viewing landscape will have completely changed

The biggest questions that remain:

Does Oklahoma move with Oklahoma State to the SEC.
Does West Virginia end up in the SEC or the ACC
In order to make room does the SEC give up Missouri to the B1G

If you can successfully answer those three questions, you can solve the realignment riddle.

(08-02-2016 01:52 PM)XLance Wrote:  The biggest questions that remain:

Does Oklahoma move with Oklahoma State to the SEC.
Does West Virginia end up in the SEC or the ACC
In order to make room does the SEC give up Missouri to the B1G

If you can successfully answer those three questions, you can solve the realignment riddle.

OU and OSU to the SEC? I think so.

WVU? Not sure they get back into a Power league

SEC give up Mizzou? I think there is basically a 0% chance of that happening.

In other words, I don't have a lot of answers.

I know you'll chalk this as bias but Baylor is just not that popular here in Texas. They have a small fan base that's diluted because it's spread out everywhere.

I'll put it this way: I live in the middle of DFW and I can go weeks and weeks without seeing a single item of Baylor gear or car sticker whereas I'll see Florida, Bama and Auburn stuff every week.

But beyond all that they absolutely deserve the death penalty over this scandal even if they won't get it and no conference should sully itself by bringing in Rape U

(08-02-2016 01:52 PM)XLance Wrote:  The biggest questions that remain:

Does Oklahoma move with Oklahoma State to the SEC.
Does West Virginia end up in the SEC or the ACC
In order to make room does the SEC give up Missouri to the B1G

If you can successfully answer those three questions, you can solve the realignment riddle.

Does Oklahoma move with Oklahoma State to the SEC? If the move at all, yes.
Does West Virginia end up in the SEC? No. ACC? If they move anywhere, yes.

In order to make room does the SEC give up Missouri to the B1G? The SEC doesn't give up anyone. Now if Missouri desires the Big 10 then we won't mind if the door hits them in rear on the way out. But there is no third team (outside of Texas) that would merit making room unless North Carolina or Virginia Tech wanted in. We sure won't be giving up Missouri to make room for W.V.U..

But it may all be moot if the morons in the Big 12 have their way and add 4 G5 schools and sign a GOR extension. It's hard to stop something bent on suicide.

(08-02-2016 09:23 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  I know you'll chalk this as bias but Baylor is just not that popular here in Texas. They have a small fan base that's diluted because it's spread out everywhere.

I'll put it this way: I live in the middle of DFW and I can go weeks and weeks without seeing a single item of Baylor gear or car sticker whereas I'll see Florida, Bama and Auburn stuff every week.

But beyond all that they absolutely deserve the death penalty over this scandal even if they won't get it and no conference should sully itself by bringing in Rape U

I wouldn't say you're biased although I honestly wouldn't blame you if you were.

Baylor's fan base is small, but even a small slice of TX is bigger than what a lot of programs bring to the table.