(07-29-2016 08:03 PM)AppManDG Wrote: (07-29-2016 06:27 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: (07-29-2016 04:26 PM)AppManDG Wrote: Does Louisiana finally get the opportunity to be a constant thorn in La Tech's side?
I think ULL's best move would be to let La Tech rot in CUSA, where they'll be stuck in a division with UTSA, UNT, UTEP, (probably Texas State), and UAB. No USM. No Marshall. No Rice. Some years they won't play MTSU or WKU. In those years, a conference schedule where every game could be a sub 100 team. That's going to be ugly. And that conference can probably kiss their P5 bowl game g'bye too.
Oh, and that conference will still be every bit as wide spread and expensive for their Olympic sports.
Oh, there will probably be LESS money as a result of it.
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But ULL would still consider it. So would USA. The problem is the fact that if Rice and USM move from the West of CUSA, then that division is going to be a tough sell. Especially if they had to pay 4 million for it.
Does it make sense for the AAC to take Rice & USM along with Marshall? Taking away Cincy, Memphis and Houston leaves the AAC with UCF, USF, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU in the South / ECU, UConn, Temple and football only Navy in the North. Adding Rice or USM balances the south. but the north needs two. Adding both USM & Rice doesn't make a lot of sense considering USM would be sitting directly in the middle of the southern schools, but in the northern division.
That scenario looks very plausible at this point. If the Big XII goes to 14, here are the scenarios
1) BYU plus 3 AAC teams. USM and Marshall are gone at that point. Rice is probably gone too. Its possible that NIU gets picked up from the AAC, but if they are taken rather than Marshall, then Marshall would probably crawl back to the MAC, hat in hand anyway.
2) BYU, Boise/Colorado State, UH, UC - AAC backfills with USM and Rice. MWC decides to stay at 12 and takes UTEP.
3) Either 1 or 2, but the MWC decides to go to 14 by poaching Texas teams. Every Texas CUSA team left behind would go. In that case, CUSA would lose 3 Texas teams, USM, and Marshall. This is the disaster scenario for CUSA. La Tech and whoever in Texas is left behind would be in a very bad situation. Every team in CUSA with options is looking for the exits.
Remember, this is in a Big XII to 14 scenario. In a Big XII to 12 scenario CUSA just probably loses 1 team, and can probably pick a team from us to get back to an even number.
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In the past, CUSA could have made a preemptive strike to protect themselves. They could raid the Belt before they get poached. With 14 members, I'm not sure they can do that now as easily.
I'm pretty sure CUSA is concerned about scenarios 1, 2, or 3. I'm not sure they can do anything about it though. They could waive the entrance fee.
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If USA, Ga Southern, App, ULL, and State stick together, and the Big XII goes to 14, we should pass CUSA in short order. And we just might be able to pick two teams off from them. But if we don't stick together, we could end up with another downgrade, losing 3 of our better programs and have to add more FCS move ups and partial members.