IMO it could happen, under the following conditions: The Big 12 takes four teams, all from the AAC. This would seriously weaken the AAC as a brand. Second, the four teams taken are not teams close to the MWC footprint. So it couldn't happen if, e.g., schools like Houston and SMU are among the Big 12 joiners.

But what if the Big 12 takes UConn, Cincy, and the two Florida schools? Or UConn, Cincy, Temple, and Navy?

Now you have a badly weakened AAC, and schools like Houston, Tulsa, and SMU that are close to the MWC footprint. Would they be amenable to MWC overtures?

IMO. likely so.

I doubt it unless the AAC ticks off SMU by adding UMass, UNH and UMaine.

Steve...maybe...but another option would be for a whole new league to form. I think if there is a split...the P4/5 will bring along 80 to 90 or so programs to the new scenario.

I could see "best and brightest" being grabbed from several conferences and Indies (UMass, Army, Air Force) into either one or two super G5 conferences.

Wut?
The AAC will pull from viable candidates on the eastern seaboard. The End

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They could but the TV contract would need to be changed Houston isn't kissing Boise's @ss .
Or most of the AAC are not bending over backwards for a school beneath them.
The AAC has tried to be as P5 as possible with so many former top level BCS/P5 type programs.
That explains Tulane over Southern Miss or they were SEC and have great academics.
Hard to argue that the conference should be P6 if you have directional commuter schools on it. (not saying Southern miss fits that but they had the best football history to be left out).
My guess is they hope to build and get better and better TV deals .
While being a strong athletic conference and argue for inclusion.

I could also see Hawaii ,CSU,UNM and San Diego ST joining and eight team AAC.
In an attempt to one day join the top level as the P6 conference.

I asked and was told we will have some nice exit fees for a few years. Hated the late games but enjoyed the teams and fans out west.

After discussing UTEP and Rice last December, the MW TV contract wouldn't be increased and won't be even if they added UH and SMU. The MW presidents are quite content with the current 12 team setup. I'm sure it would be discussed but with the CFP per conference payout @ $10 million, the TV contract threshold is fairly high bar to cross.
Any expansion by the MW won't be really an option until 2019 when the current TV contract ends in 2020.

no

(07-24-2016 08:38 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO it could happen, under the following conditions: The Big 12 takes four teams, all from the AAC. This would seriously weaken the AAC as a brand. Second, the four teams taken are not teams close to the MWC footprint. So it couldn't happen if, e.g., schools like Houston and SMU are among the Big 12 joiners.

But what if the Big 12 takes UConn, Cincy, and the two Florida schools? Or UConn, Cincy, Temple, and Navy?

Now you have a badly weakened AAC, and schools like Houston, Tulsa, and SMU that are close to the MWC footprint. Would they be amenable to MWC overtures?

IMO. likely so.

I think it's an interesting question, but I don't think it's likely, for the same reason that Boise and SDSU didn't make it to the Big East/AAC before. There isn't enough TV money difference in either conference to justify the move.

(07-24-2016 09:14 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  After discussing UTEP and Rice last December, the MW TV contract wouldn't be increased and won't be even if they added UH and SMU. The MW presidents are quite content with the current 12 team setup. I'm sure it would be discussed but with the CFP per conference payout @ $10 million, the TV contract threshold is fairly high bar to cross.
Any expansion by the MW won't be really an option until 2019 when the current TV contract ends in 2020.

Right.

There really is no need to combine the MWC/AAC schools when they both get separate CFP distributions. Splitting 10 million in guaranteed CFP money ect for a 18-20 team conference is stupid.

What makes more sense is to go in on a MWC/AAC joint TV deal that would have the strength of 5 time zones for the network looking to pick it up.

(07-24-2016 09:12 AM)Pony94 Wrote:  I asked and was told we will have some nice exit fees for a few years. Hated the late games but enjoyed the teams and fans out west.

Quite true. And the MW doesn't have anything to overcome the exit fees.

There isn't enough financial benefit for the MWC, CUSA, MAC, or SBC to raid each other so I'd guess there won't much movement beyond one or two teams as well as NMSU and UMASS finding homes.

(07-24-2016 10:12 AM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  There isn't enough financial benefit for the MWC, CUSA, MAC, or SBC to raid each other so I'd guess there won't much movement beyond one or two teams as well as NMSU and UMASS finding homes.

What's happened is the exit fees have become so high and the upgrade in TV money so marginal that its no longer worth it.

Its not like joining the MWC or CUSA 10 years ago who could potentially be the next BCS conference.

The trend also is for G5 downsizing to maximize per school payout. I have a feeling the AAC will push back to 12 just because that is what the MWC has and if they want to do a coast 2 coast TV deal someday it will be more sensible. There is nothing stopping the AAC from issuing a couple of FB only invites to get there either.

If 3-4 leave the AAC, say any combo of Houston, UC, Memphis, UCONN or U_F, not sure what would keep Tulsa and SMU tied to the eastern seaboard. I do think the backfill will be from the Midwest and northeast. Southern adds and this thing starts to mirror C-USA and Sunbelt way too much.

(07-24-2016 10:22 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  If 3-4 leave the AAC, say any combo of Houston, UC, Memphis, UCONN or U_F, not sure what would keep Tulsa and SMU tied to the eastern seaboard. I do think the backfill will be from the Midwest and northeast. Southern adds and this thing starts to mirror C-USA and Sunbelt way too much.

The AAC has equal revenue sharing on the TV contract while the MWC does not. Even with 3-4 AAC defections the MWC would be no better because of the quality left behind in Temple, Navy, ECU ect.

The biggest barrier to entry for the AAC is that 40 million dollar budget. The AAC could end up offering a couple schools FB only if they have concerns about their other sports.

Then with FB-Only, the A10 or Horizon are leagues where a school can put their other sports. That favors a school like Marshall which has the geography for those leagues over a Southern Miss which is more limited in options.

(07-24-2016 10:44 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(07-24-2016 10:22 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  If 3-4 leave the AAC, say any combo of Houston, UC, Memphis, UCONN or U_F, not sure what would keep Tulsa and SMU tied to the eastern seaboard. I do think the backfill will be from the Midwest and northeast. Southern adds and this thing starts to mirror C-USA and Sunbelt way too much.

The AAC has equal revenue sharing on the TV contract while the MWC does not. Even with 3-4 AAC defections the MWC would be no better because of the quality left behind in Temple, Navy, ECU ect.

The biggest barrier to entry for the AAC is that 40 million dollar budget. The AAC could end up offering a couple schools FB only if they have concerns about their other sports.

Then with FB-Only, the A10 or Horizon are leagues where a school can put their other sports. That favors a school like Marshall which has the geography for those leagues over a Southern Miss which is more limited in options.

If the AAC gets raided aren't the teams being talked about the "trigger" teams that would allow ESPN to renegotiate the TV contract?

If so that's the case you couldn't be more wrong. The AAC will be in big trouble at that point because the TV money isn't going to go up in that case. The MWC might start to look like a viable alternative for a school like SMU.

There may be some logic to the AAC rebuilding as an Eastern conference only. If Cincy, Memphis, Houston leave for Big12, then SMU, Tulsa and Navy defect to MWC, then the AAC could rebuild like this

North
UConn, Temple, Old Dominion, Buffalo, UMASS, Marshall

South
UCF, USF, ECU, Tulane, Georgia St, Charlotte

(07-24-2016 10:54 AM)k5james Wrote:  

(07-24-2016 10:44 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(07-24-2016 10:22 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  If 3-4 leave the AAC, say any combo of Houston, UC, Memphis, UCONN or U_F, not sure what would keep Tulsa and SMU tied to the eastern seaboard. I do think the backfill will be from the Midwest and northeast. Southern adds and this thing starts to mirror C-USA and Sunbelt way too much.

The AAC has equal revenue sharing on the TV contract while the MWC does not. Even with 3-4 AAC defections the MWC would be no better because of the quality left behind in Temple, Navy, ECU ect.

The biggest barrier to entry for the AAC is that 40 million dollar budget. The AAC could end up offering a couple schools FB only if they have concerns about their other sports.

Then with FB-Only, the A10 or Horizon are leagues where a school can put their other sports. That favors a school like Marshall which has the geography for those leagues over a Southern Miss which is more limited in options.

If the AAC gets raided aren't the teams being talked about the "trigger" teams that would allow ESPN to renegotiate the TV contract?

If so that's the case you couldn't be more wrong. The AAC will be in big trouble at that point because the TV money isn't going to go up in that case. The MWC might start to look like a viable alternative for a school like SMU.

The difference in the money, either direction, isn't enough to justify the exit fees. I think everybody will stay put.

(07-24-2016 10:22 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  If 3-4 leave the AAC, say any combo of Houston, UC, Memphis, UCONN or U_F, not sure what would keep Tulsa and SMU tied to the eastern seaboard. I do think the backfill will be from the Midwest and northeast. Southern adds and this thing starts to mirror C-USA and Sunbelt way too much.

AAC keeps NCAA Tourney credits and gets a bunch of exit fee money.
They are in the drivers seat not MWC.

Why is it that everyone keep overlooking the fact that the ACC'S new network is what triggered all of this. The new prime time slots that will open up can only be filled logically by one conference, the American people! The AAC's strength is in the # of teams that were rising and pulling in decent ratings. If Memphis, UC,UH leave you still would have USF,UCF,Temple,ECU with Tulsa rising. The mwc still couldn't match any of this.