http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily...g-Ten.aspx

Almost $18M per team on tier 1 that involves 25 football games, & 50 basketball games.

Tier 2 has the flexibility to have that number or more and they are soliciting several bidders, or leave more content for the BTN making it more valuable.

It would seem $40-$45 Million per year just from tv before the playoffs/bowls is possible and the tier 1 is only for 6 years, they get to renegotiate again when the power leagues are negotiating.

Do you think that kind of revenue difference will get the ACC schools to begin looking at jumping?

Also, how do you think it effects competition between B1G & SEC for those same schools?

(04-19-2016 04:50 PM)Win5002 Wrote:  http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily...g-Ten.aspx

Almost $18M per team on tier 1 that involves 25 football games, & 50 basketball games.

Tier 2 has the flexibility to have that number or more and they are soliciting several bidders, or leave more content for the BTN making it more valuable.

It would seem $40-$45 Million per year just from tv before the playoffs/bowls is possible and the tier 1 is only for 6 years, they get to renegotiate again when the power leagues are negotiating.

Do you think that kind of revenue difference will get the ACC schools to begin looking at jumping?

Also, how do you think it effects competition between B1G & SEC for those same schools?

In actual revenue the SEC averages 15 million a year more than the Big 10 now. I'd say it puts the Big 10 back to where it was a few years ago, 2 to 3 million a year ahead of the SEC. When you figure in travel for schools like Florida State that wouldn't be enough. For schools like Virginia and North Carolina the travel would be about the same for many of the SEC venues so it might help there a smidgen.

Plus the SEC is 15 million ahead right now, with no additions. If we were to add there would be another negotiation on rights and our numbers would go up. All things are relative.

From the article:

The deal runs six years and could cost Fox as much as $250M per year, depending on the amount of rights the Big Ten conference puts in its second package.

That's $1.5B for the 1st Tier rights. Not bad. It's more like $16.5M per team though as I imagine the league will take a cut. Still, that is pretty good to be before postseason money.

But that is the top end potential of the deal. Notice it says it could cost FOX as much as $250 per year and it depends upon what's in the 2nd tier package. The 2nd tier package will not be worth as much, possibly a fair bit less if for no other reason than because FOX tends to overpay for their product as they are still buying into the market. Notice the article says that ESPN put in a non-competitive offer.

The Fox deal essentially is half of the package of games that had been with ESPN (as part of a 10-year, $1B deal that expires next spring) and CBS (as part of a 6-year, $72M basketball-only deal that also expires next spring).

So the old deal was paying $1.072B for everything. That comes to about $7.14M per team per year. So we've seen a little more than a 2 fold increase already on TV rights.

I'm betting though that ESPN ends up with most if not all of the 2nd tier content. They have more exposure and more platforms to utilize. I suppose it's possible that NBC will outbid them or maybe team up on a bid. I'm not going to speculate on figures as I'm not that savvy, but we can safely assume the 2nd half of the package will not be nearly as valuable as the first. The Big Ten's football content is limited which will comprise most of the value.

Questions...what do they make on the BTN? Also, what is the allotment for postseason money per conference?

(04-19-2016 04:50 PM)Win5002 Wrote:  http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily...g-Ten.aspx

Almost $18M per team on tier 1 that involves 25 football games, & 50 basketball games.

Tier 2 has the flexibility to have that number or more and they are soliciting several bidders, or leave more content for the BTN making it more valuable.

It would seem $40-$45 Million per year just from tv before the playoffs/bowls is possible and the tier 1 is only for 6 years, they get to renegotiate again when the power leagues are negotiating.

Do you think that kind of revenue difference will get the ACC schools to begin looking at jumping?

Also, how do you think it effects competition between B1G & SEC for those same schools?

The article doesn't mention Tier 1 rights. It just says 25 football games and 50 basketball games. Another package of 25/50 games is being dangled, but I would not expect to see big bucks spent on that if it is from the middle or bottom of the pile of B1G games.

Also, the second package might also get the rights to the B1G CCG every other year..... Yeah, too much info missing for me to make heads or tales of this.

So the B1G's football inventory consists of 63 conference games and one CCG. They are trying to sell 50 games and the CCG while leaving 13 games for the BTN. If it is Tier two games up for grabs, I could see CBS Sports needing the inventory, maybe NBC Sports.


Don't forget to click the link to the full article:

Quote:The conference also is holding back some digital rights that it will offer to digital media companies, sources said. The deal does not include Big Ten Network’s package of rights, which runs to '31-32. Fox already has a relationship with the conference; it owns 51% of BTN.

Fox’ deal is a blow to ESPN, which had held most of the conference’s rights previously. Sources said that ESPN presented a non-competitive bid several weeks ago, as the company continues to look for areas to save costs. Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany and Jon Barrett, the conference’s longtime legal counsel, negotiated the deal for the Big Ten, which did not hire an outside media consultant. Fox Sports President Eric Shanks and Exec VP/Business Larry Jones negotiated on behalf of Fox.

(04-19-2016 05:45 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I'm betting though that ESPN ends up with most if not all of the 2nd tier content. They have more exposure and more platforms to utilize. I suppose it's possible that NBC will outbid them or maybe team up on a bid. I'm not going to speculate on figures as I'm not that savvy, but we can safely assume the 2nd half of the package will not be nearly as valuable as the first. The Big Ten's football content is limited which will comprise most of the value.

Depends on how the rights are broken up. If Fox has the Tier 1 picks, then there is no need for ESPN to spend money on filler games when they are in cost cutting mode.

Now if the Tier 1, Tier 2 and CCG TV rights are being split in half some how, then investing in the B1G might be worth while at the right price for ESPN or CBS or NBC or Turner.

(04-19-2016 05:58 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(04-19-2016 05:45 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I'm betting though that ESPN ends up with most if not all of the 2nd tier content. They have more exposure and more platforms to utilize. I suppose it's possible that NBC will outbid them or maybe team up on a bid. I'm not going to speculate on figures as I'm not that savvy, but we can safely assume the 2nd half of the package will not be nearly as valuable as the first. The Big Ten's football content is limited which will comprise most of the value.

Depends on how the rights are broken up. If Fox has the Tier 1 picks, then there is no need for ESPN to spend money on filler games when they are in cost cutting mode.

Now if the Tier 1, Tier 2 and CCG TV rights are being split in half some how, then investing in the B1G might be worth while at the right price for ESPN or CBS or NBC or Turner.

I don't know that I would consider those games filler content though. They are still games from a major conference which will fetch higher ratings than the AAC or Sun Belt or many games from the ACC for that matter. They need to fill time slots on a number of networks.

I'm just guessing here, but I think we could see ESPN put down some serious cash on an ACCN if they aren't willing to spend on the B1G.

Also, if we see the B1G games move away from ABC then we could see more SEC games over there as well.

(04-19-2016 06:36 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(04-19-2016 05:58 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(04-19-2016 05:45 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I'm betting though that ESPN ends up with most if not all of the 2nd tier content. They have more exposure and more platforms to utilize. I suppose it's possible that NBC will outbid them or maybe team up on a bid. I'm not going to speculate on figures as I'm not that savvy, but we can safely assume the 2nd half of the package will not be nearly as valuable as the first. The Big Ten's football content is limited which will comprise most of the value.

Depends on how the rights are broken up. If Fox has the Tier 1 picks, then there is no need for ESPN to spend money on filler games when they are in cost cutting mode.

Now if the Tier 1, Tier 2 and CCG TV rights are being split in half some how, then investing in the B1G might be worth while at the right price for ESPN or CBS or NBC or Turner.

I don't know that I would consider those games filler content though. They are still games from a major conference which will fetch higher ratings than the AAC or Sun Belt or many games from the ACC for that matter. They need to fill time slots on a number of networks.

I'm just guessing here, but I think we could see ESPN put down some serious cash on an ACCN if they aren't willing to spend on the B1G.

Also, if we see the B1G games move away from ABC then we could see more SEC games over there as well.

ESPN was stuffing some of the better ACC games on Thursday night. Moving games over to ABC from ACC, SEC and B12 could fill that spot.

(04-19-2016 07:27 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(04-19-2016 06:36 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(04-19-2016 05:58 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(04-19-2016 05:45 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I'm betting though that ESPN ends up with most if not all of the 2nd tier content. They have more exposure and more platforms to utilize. I suppose it's possible that NBC will outbid them or maybe team up on a bid. I'm not going to speculate on figures as I'm not that savvy, but we can safely assume the 2nd half of the package will not be nearly as valuable as the first. The Big Ten's football content is limited which will comprise most of the value.

Depends on how the rights are broken up. If Fox has the Tier 1 picks, then there is no need for ESPN to spend money on filler games when they are in cost cutting mode.

Now if the Tier 1, Tier 2 and CCG TV rights are being split in half some how, then investing in the B1G might be worth while at the right price for ESPN or CBS or NBC or Turner.

I don't know that I would consider those games filler content though. They are still games from a major conference which will fetch higher ratings than the AAC or Sun Belt or many games from the ACC for that matter. They need to fill time slots on a number of networks.

I'm just guessing here, but I think we could see ESPN put down some serious cash on an ACCN if they aren't willing to spend on the B1G.

Also, if we see the B1G games move away from ABC then we could see more SEC games over there as well.

ESPN was stuffing some of the better ACC games on Thursday night. Moving games over to ABC from ACC, SEC and B12 could fill that spot.

True.

I think we can take from all this that the B1G was more valuable to FOX than it was to ESPN. The thing about ESPN is that they can still provide a great deal of exposure that FOX cannot. That's why I think ESPN ends up with the rest of the rights.

(04-19-2016 07:47 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  True.

I think we can take from all this that the B1G was more valuable to FOX than it was to ESPN. The thing about ESPN is that they can still provide a great deal of exposure that FOX cannot. That's why I think ESPN ends up with the rest of the rights.

Funny you mention that....

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball...akes-sense

Quote:Several industry experts said Big Ten basketball coaches were closely watching the negotiations. Anything that meant fewer games on longtime partners ESPN and CBS would be viewed negatively by the coaches.

Dodd wasn't blowing as much sunshine as the some of the others have been.

Quote:Signing only a six-year deal, “probably means [the Big Ten] didn't get the money they wanted,” one source said.

One industry insider told CBS Sports that Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany sought a long-term deal through 2032. There may not have been the money in the market for such a deal, or Delany may have strategically tried to line up the next deal close to when NFL deals expire with CBS, Fox and NBC after the 2022 season when, theoretically, more money could be available in the market.

So some coaches in the B1G want the exposure that ESPN and CBS provide. I think the B12 can attest to that after the last couple of seasons on FS1. Fox needed the inventory and got it. The remaining candidates ESPN, needs to cut costs, CBS, might only stick with basketball again, NBC, has Notre Dame locked up and may or may not want to upgrade programming on NBCSport, and Turner, is the complete wildcard if they are truly in the deck.

(04-19-2016 08:00 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(04-19-2016 07:47 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  True.

I think we can take from all this that the B1G was more valuable to FOX than it was to ESPN. The thing about ESPN is that they can still provide a great deal of exposure that FOX cannot. That's why I think ESPN ends up with the rest of the rights.

Funny you mention that....

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball...akes-sense

Quote:Several industry experts said Big Ten basketball coaches were closely watching the negotiations. Anything that meant fewer games on longtime partners ESPN and CBS would be viewed negatively by the coaches.

Dodd wasn't blowing as much sunshine as the some of the others have been.

Quote:Signing only a six-year deal, “probably means [the Big Ten] didn't get the money they wanted,” one source said.

One industry insider told CBS Sports that Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany sought a long-term deal through 2032. There may not have been the money in the market for such a deal, or Delany may have strategically tried to line up the next deal close to when NFL deals expire with CBS, Fox and NBC after the 2022 season when, theoretically, more money could be available in the market.

So some coaches in the B1G want the exposure that ESPN and CBS provide. I think the B12 can attest to that after the last couple of seasons on FS1. Fox needed the inventory and got it. The remaining candidates ESPN, needs to cut costs, CBS, might only stick with basketball again, NBC, has Notre Dame locked up and may or may not want to upgrade programming on NBCSport, and Turner, is the complete wildcard if they are truly in the deck.

Interesting stuff.

If I'm the Big Ten, I don't even seriously consider Turner. 1) They don't have a dedicated sports network and while having a few games on TBS and TNT might sound good, they will have a hard time marketing them to the casual fan that's probably spending a lot more time watching ESPN or even FOX for live sports. 2) There's a good chance some games could end up on TruTV or some other lower tier channel which would be horrible for exposure.

Same goes for CBS even though they have a sports network. It gets terrible penetration. Of course, different story if we're talking about putting basketball games on the main network.

NBC is intriguing to me. I'm an EPL fan and have been very impressed with the quality of the coverage. Let's say NBC snags some of those B1G games and uses them as a lead-in to the ND broadcasts or vice versa. They could probably do a pretty good job marketing as well considering NBC Universal owns a large number of popular channels. NBCSN has put forth a pretty good product so far. I think they are in the upper echelon of revenue as far as sports networks go.

FOX tends to overpay for everything which is how they got the Big East and kept the Big 12 together. The PAC 12 is making some pretty good money off their deal right now too, but they had to sacrifice exposure to do it. Sounds like the B1G is willing to go that direction to maximize it's revenue. I would be very surprised if the 2nd package attracts big money.

On the bright side for us, if the SEC could get a few more football games on ABC or a few more basketball games on CBS due to this then I'm all for it.

The six year deal ends right at the time the GOR's start to expire (given the 2 year pre notification of a move required by both conferences). It could also very well be an indication that sports broadcast rights fees have reached a peak, or is nearing one. With the delivery model up in the air given technological improvements, they may well be skittish to sign a longer one.

Remember the SEC can renegotiate with additions. We aren't locked down in that regard.

All of these rumors swirling seem very far fetched to me. Can you really see Georgia Tech and Florida State in the Big 10? I can't. If F.S.U. is negotiating seriously with the Big 10 it is probably to pressure ESPN to let them move to the SEC.

I would be shocked should the SEC permit F.S.U. go to the Big 10.

What I think the rights deal means is simply this:
1. There are only so many must see games in the not very deep Big 10. They have 5 football brands (OSU, MSU, UM, PSU, Neb) and Wisky is new to the party. They don't all play each other. There are fewer than 11 must see games in the Big 10's T1 inventory. The rest are T2 & T3 type games. They are selling basketball rights as well in this package so it will affect CBS.

If things are tightening for sports money we will see that in what is paid for the 2nd half which might very well be just T2 & T3 type games.

2. Nobody is leaving any conference right now, or for 6 years.

3. There will be a new contract when they know who is joining and how it will be carried.

(04-19-2016 11:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The six year deal ends right at the time the GOR's start to expire (given the 2 year pre notification of a move required by both conferences). It could also very well be an indication that sports broadcast rights fees have reached a peak, or is nearing one. With the delivery model up in the air given technological improvements, they may well be skittish to sign a longer one.

Remember the SEC can renegotiate with additions. We aren't locked down in that regard.

All of these rumors swirling seem very far fetched to me. Can you really see Georgia Tech and Florida State in the Big 10? I can't. If F.S.U. is negotiating seriously with the Big 10 it is probably to pressure ESPN to let them move to the SEC.

I would be shocked should the SEC permit F.S.U. go to the Big 10.

What I think the rights deal means is simply this:
1. There are only so many must see games in the not very deep Big 10. They have 5 football brands (OSU, MSU, UM, PSU, Neb) and Wisky is new to the party. They don't all play each other. There are fewer than 11 must see games in the Big 10's T1 inventory. The rest are T2 & T3 type games. They are selling basketball rights as well in this package so it will affect CBS.

If things are tightening for sports money we will see that in what is paid for the 2nd half which might very well be just T2 & T3 type games.

2. Nobody is leaving any conference right now, or for 6 years.

3. There will be a new contract when they know who is joining and how it will be carried.

Would be interesting to see FSU push the "we have a B1G offer" in order to get ESPN to sign off on them switching to the SEC. What percent chance could that happen and would they do that before the B1G's new contract expires?

I find it interesting that the B1G broke down their TV packages into only two tiers, one for bidding and splitting on the tv networks and then the leftover games that will fall to the BTN.

(04-20-2016 02:20 AM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(04-19-2016 11:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The six year deal ends right at the time the GOR's start to expire (given the 2 year pre notification of a move required by both conferences). It could also very well be an indication that sports broadcast rights fees have reached a peak, or is nearing one. With the delivery model up in the air given technological improvements, they may well be skittish to sign a longer one.

Remember the SEC can renegotiate with additions. We aren't locked down in that regard.

All of these rumors swirling seem very far fetched to me. Can you really see Georgia Tech and Florida State in the Big 10? I can't. If F.S.U. is negotiating seriously with the Big 10 it is probably to pressure ESPN to let them move to the SEC.

I would be shocked should the SEC permit F.S.U. go to the Big 10.

What I think the rights deal means is simply this:
1. There are only so many must see games in the not very deep Big 10. They have 5 football brands (OSU, MSU, UM, PSU, Neb) and Wisky is new to the party. They don't all play each other. There are fewer than 11 must see games in the Big 10's T1 inventory. The rest are T2 & T3 type games. They are selling basketball rights as well in this package so it will affect CBS.

If things are tightening for sports money we will see that in what is paid for the 2nd half which might very well be just T2 & T3 type games.

2. Nobody is leaving any conference right now, or for 6 years.

3. There will be a new contract when they know who is joining and how it will be carried.

Would be interesting to see FSU push the "we have a B1G offer" in order to get ESPN to sign off on them switching to the SEC. What percent chance could that happen and would they do that before the B1G's new contract expires?

I find it interesting that the B1G broke down their TV packages into only two tiers, one for bidding and splitting on the tv networks and then the leftover games that will fall to the BTN.

Exactly. And now their fan boys are out touting per school payouts from 45 million per school to 67 million per school. And what are they basing that upon? Their calculations are totally a product of millennial math and bullcrap. I think they might get 40 to maybe if the second half of the rights are over half the value of package 1 45 million and then it will be near the end of that 6 year contract.

What we need to take note of is that they had to move to the agreement to play 9 conference games to get that bump. When the SEC is out of options to play for bumps it will be 9 conference games for us as well.

BTW I imagine that N.D., U.N.C., UVa, and F.S.U. are having discussions with the Big 10, but that doesn't mean they want to join. It means that it is 10 years out on their contracts and they are doing due diligence on valuations that come from somebody other than ESPN which is just smart business.

They need to know their options if things don't pan out, and what buttons to push with ESPN for leverage. The present Big 10 situation offers a variety of information if you are pretending to shop.

With regards to F.S.U. here is what I think. The SEC would love to get into Virginia and North Carolina, but we are not vulnerable there. We are vulnerable to a model change affecting the payout of Florida. F.S.U. addresses that vulnerability and does so with just 1 school.

There are two schools to the West that would add to the SEC's overall value, Texas and Oklahoma. Nobody knows what Texas will do. Oklahoma like Florida State wants out. Oklahoma gives us a new small state, but also delivers very well the DFW market. Having OU & AM gives us enough coverage in Texas to keep prime rates even with a model change. Both OU & FSU add to our content value. Those are the two best moves the SEC could make to guarantee maximum rates in all their present states while adding 1 state to that footprint and gaining content value.

At 16 that is the combination that makes the most sense and if conferences go to 18 or 20 everyone else of interest will still be on the table.

(04-20-2016 07:44 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-20-2016 02:20 AM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(04-19-2016 11:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The six year deal ends right at the time the GOR's start to expire (given the 2 year pre notification of a move required by both conferences). It could also very well be an indication that sports broadcast rights fees have reached a peak, or is nearing one. With the delivery model up in the air given technological improvements, they may well be skittish to sign a longer one.

Remember the SEC can renegotiate with additions. We aren't locked down in that regard.

All of these rumors swirling seem very far fetched to me. Can you really see Georgia Tech and Florida State in the Big 10? I can't. If F.S.U. is negotiating seriously with the Big 10 it is probably to pressure ESPN to let them move to the SEC.

I would be shocked should the SEC permit F.S.U. go to the Big 10.

What I think the rights deal means is simply this:
1. There are only so many must see games in the not very deep Big 10. They have 5 football brands (OSU, MSU, UM, PSU, Neb) and Wisky is new to the party. They don't all play each other. There are fewer than 11 must see games in the Big 10's T1 inventory. The rest are T2 & T3 type games. They are selling basketball rights as well in this package so it will affect CBS.

If things are tightening for sports money we will see that in what is paid for the 2nd half which might very well be just T2 & T3 type games.

2. Nobody is leaving any conference right now, or for 6 years.

3. There will be a new contract when they know who is joining and how it will be carried.

Would be interesting to see FSU push the "we have a B1G offer" in order to get ESPN to sign off on them switching to the SEC. What percent chance could that happen and would they do that before the B1G's new contract expires?

I find it interesting that the B1G broke down their TV packages into only two tiers, one for bidding and splitting on the tv networks and then the leftover games that will fall to the BTN.

Exactly. And now their fan boys are out touting per school payouts from 45 million per school to 67 million per school. And what are they basing that upon? Their calculations are totally a product of millennial math and bullcrap. I think they might get 40 to maybe if the second half of the rights are over half the value of package 1 45 million and then it will be near the end of that 6 year contract.

What we need to take note of is that they had to move to the agreement to play 9 conference games to get that bump. When the SEC is out of options to play for bumps it will be 9 conference games for us as well.

BTW I imagine that N.D., U.N.C., UVa, and F.S.U. are having discussions with the Big 10, but that doesn't mean they want to join. It means that it is 10 years out on their contracts and they are doing due diligence on valuations that come from somebody other than ESPN which is just smart business.

They need to know their options if things don't pan out, and what buttons to push with ESPN for leverage. The present Big 10 situation offers a variety of information if you are pretending to shop.

With regards to F.S.U. here is what I think. The SEC would love to get into Virginia and North Carolina, but we are not vulnerable there. We are vulnerable to a model change affecting the payout of Florida. F.S.U. addresses that vulnerability and does so with just 1 school.

There are two schools to the West that would add to the SEC's overall value, Texas and Oklahoma. Nobody knows what Texas will do. Oklahoma like Florida State wants out. Oklahoma gives us a new small state, but also delivers very well the DFW market. Having OU & AM gives us enough coverage in Texas to keep prime rates even with a model change. Both OU & FSU add to our content value. Those are the two best moves the SEC could make to guarantee maximum rates in all their present states while adding 1 state to that footprint and gaining content value.

At 16 that is the combination that makes the most sense and if conferences go to 18 or 20 everyone else of interest will still be on the table.

Yeah, I don't see how the 2nd Tier brings nearly as much as the 1st. Technically, the article didn't say that we are talking about the difference between 1st and 2nd tier, but listening to the description, that's exactly what it sounds like. There are only so many football games to go around, only so many first picks that can be made. This is especially true when you consider the league has to reserve certain games for the BTN.

FOX was obviously willing to shell out some big bucks, but they only did so for 25 games in addition to some pretty good basketball content. They basically bought every game that includes the blue bloods of the conference. The SEC's 1st Tier is about 12 games I think...correct me if I'm wrong. It also contains no basketball games even though our bball games probably wouldn't be as valuable anyway.

It would be nice to have FSU and OU on board. I would recommend a new alignment though...

Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Missouri, Arkansas
LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina
Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Florida State

Geographically, it would be a bit odd, but would preserve a lot of rivalries.

(04-19-2016 11:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The six year deal ends right at the time the GOR's start to expire (given the 2 year pre notification of a move required by both conferences). It could also very well be an indication that sports broadcast rights fees have reached a peak, or is nearing one. With the delivery model up in the air given technological improvements, they may well be skittish to sign a longer one.

Remember the SEC can renegotiate with additions. We aren't locked down in that regard.

All of these rumors swirling seem very far fetched to me. Can you really see Georgia Tech and Florida State in the Big 10? I can't. If F.S.U. is negotiating seriously with the Big 10 it is probably to pressure ESPN to let them move to the SEC.

I would be shocked should the SEC permit F.S.U. go to the Big 10.

What I think the rights deal means is simply this:
1. There are only so many must see games in the not very deep Big 10. They have 5 football brands (OSU, MSU, UM, PSU, Neb) and Wisky is new to the party. They don't all play each other. There are fewer than 11 must see games in the Big 10's T1 inventory. The rest are T2 & T3 type games. They are selling basketball rights as well in this package so it will affect CBS.

If things are tightening for sports money we will see that in what is paid for the 2nd half which might very well be just T2 & T3 type games.

2. Nobody is leaving any conference right now, or for 6 years.

3. There will be a new contract when they know who is joining and how it will be carried.

I know SEC can ask for renegotiations but its not guaranteed. I know with Texas A&M & Missouri CBS said no and gave pro-rata increases. Did ESPN increase? Or was that due to re-dating the deal or a combo of the two?

You ask if Ga. Tech & FSU fit in the B1G? That depends are you talking culturally or how you want to fit in academically? Those are only two items and I'm sure we could come up with more.

Are you asking Ga. Tech & FSU alone to go 16? Probably not. Are you asking Ga. Tech & FSU with Va., NC, and maybe Duke/ND or maybe add Miami, it definitely seems more plausible.

I will agree we don't know everything about the other half of the negotiations. People are speculating Fox & ESPN eventually will split the games like they do on some other leagues meaning ESPN will eventually have to pony up the same amount. Or ESPN takes part of the 2nd half and another network as well. The B1G institutions have more alumni than anyone else, does ESPN really not want a piece of that?

This might not include the CCG money and some digital streaming revenue as well. My guess is they get to $40M without playoff/bowl and I don't think close to $45M is out of possibility, the $50M seems high.

I do think you have to acknowledge to get this money and only be locked in 6 years leaves the league a lot of flexibility.

(04-20-2016 01:08 PM)Win5002 Wrote:  

(04-19-2016 11:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The six year deal ends right at the time the GOR's start to expire (given the 2 year pre notification of a move required by both conferences). It could also very well be an indication that sports broadcast rights fees have reached a peak, or is nearing one. With the delivery model up in the air given technological improvements, they may well be skittish to sign a longer one.

Remember the SEC can renegotiate with additions. We aren't locked down in that regard.

All of these rumors swirling seem very far fetched to me. Can you really see Georgia Tech and Florida State in the Big 10? I can't. If F.S.U. is negotiating seriously with the Big 10 it is probably to pressure ESPN to let them move to the SEC.

I would be shocked should the SEC permit F.S.U. go to the Big 10.

What I think the rights deal means is simply this:
1. There are only so many must see games in the not very deep Big 10. They have 5 football brands (OSU, MSU, UM, PSU, Neb) and Wisky is new to the party. They don't all play each other. There are fewer than 11 must see games in the Big 10's T1 inventory. The rest are T2 & T3 type games. They are selling basketball rights as well in this package so it will affect CBS.

If things are tightening for sports money we will see that in what is paid for the 2nd half which might very well be just T2 & T3 type games.

2. Nobody is leaving any conference right now, or for 6 years.

3. There will be a new contract when they know who is joining and how it will be carried.

I know SEC can ask for renegotiations but its not guaranteed. I know with Texas A&M & Missouri CBS said no and gave pro-rata increases. Did ESPN increase? Or was that due to re-dating the deal or a combo of the two?

You ask if Ga. Tech & FSU fit in the B1G? That depends are you talking culturally or how you want to fit in academically? Those are only two items and I'm sure we could come up with more.

Are you asking Ga. Tech & FSU alone to go 16? Probably not. Are you asking Ga. Tech & FSU with Va., NC, and maybe Duke/ND or maybe add Miami, it definitely seems more plausible.

I will agree we don't know everything about the other half of the negotiations. People are speculating Fox & ESPN eventually will split the games like they do on some other leagues meaning ESPN will eventually have to pony up the same amount. Or ESPN takes part of the 2nd half and another network as well. The B1G institutions have more alumni than anyone else, does ESPN really not want a piece of that?

This might not include the CCG money and some digital streaming revenue as well. My guess is they get to $40M without playoff/bowl and I don't think close to $45M is out of possibility, the $50M seems high.

I do think you have to acknowledge to get this money and only be locked in 6 years leaves the league a lot of flexibility.

1. It's a really good deal and it is flexible. The problem is that we don't live in stable economic times and the popularity of attending and spending on college football games is going to dip with the death of the Boomers and the X'ers later on.

The Big 10 is getting rewarded up front for taking a risk. That risk could be rewarded more handsomely in 6 years, or it could falter. It depends on what is going on in the world in 6 years. That's always a risk but with the global economy in precarious straights it is even more risky.

It also begs the question of how much inventory for must see T1 does the Big 10 have? You could argue six football brands of some some national standing to obvious national standing (UM, MSU, OSU, PSU, Wisc, Neb). If they all played each other you would have 16 top quality games. But they don't play each other. You might have 10 solid games out of that batch and you had better hope they are all on different weekends from one another.

The rest of the Big 10 inventory is not strong at all outside of the Big 10 states involved. That's where your alumni base pays off.

2. I profoundly doubt that the SEC and Big 10 will expand with more than 2 schools at the time. We like our renegotiation. Yes the SEC got a nice boost from ESPN for Mizzou and A&M. CBS didn't pay us more because there are only 13 weeks in the season and they bought 13 games. Adding Mizzou and A&M didn't give them more games, just more games to choose from. But if folks think the Big 10 is going to just jump to 20 they are nuts! They will add two and get a boost. Then they will add two more and get a boost. They aren't giving away those opportunities to get more by jumping by 6 at once. Neither will the SEC.

3. Georgia Tech athletically speaking is broke. Their academics fit with Purdue very well. But, Tech is a very distant 2nd in the Atlanta area to Georgia and Auburn is a very strong third to Tech. The Big 10 alumni base in Atlanta is not as significant as many would lead you to believe. They are there and they comprise a reasonable percentage, but not enough to fill Grant Field regularly. Add to that the fact that Georgia Tech would go broke with travel for minor sports, even in a more local division and it's a non starter.

4. Florida State is neither a cultural, nor an academic fit for the Big 10 and they would be a colossal outlier. Miami doesn't really fit the Big 10 profile at all. They aren't AAU, can't fill 1/3rd of their stadium capacity, don't have a campus stadium, and have a small enrollment. But, if you want a city in the South with oodles of Big 10 alums that is in their column.

5. The prizes here for the Big 10 are Virginia, North Carolina and Notre Dame. If they have to take Duke to land that they will. So would any conference. Those schools essentially give the Big 10 the markets they want and the branding they want.

6. What the second half of the Big 10 package is worth might not be as much as folks think. Remember there are only about 10 or 11 games worth having nationally. If most of those are in the package FOX just bought, then watch out. You might only get another 125 million for the rest.

(04-19-2016 11:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The six year deal ends right at the time the GOR's start to expire (given the 2 year pre notification of a move required by both conferences). It could also very well be an indication that sports broadcast rights fees have reached a peak, or is nearing one. With the delivery model up in the air given technological improvements, they may well be skittish to sign a longer one.

Remember the SEC can renegotiate with additions. We aren't locked down in that regard.

All of these rumors swirling seem very far fetched to me. Can you really see Georgia Tech and Florida State in the Big 10? I can't. If F.S.U. is negotiating seriously with the Big 10 it is probably to pressure ESPN to let them move to the SEC.

I would be shocked should the SEC permit F.S.U. go to the Big 10.

What I think the rights deal means is simply this:
1. There are only so many must see games in the not very deep Big 10. They have 5 football brands (OSU, MSU, UM, PSU, Neb) and Wisky is new to the party. They don't all play each other. There are fewer than 11 must see games in the Big 10's T1 inventory. The rest are T2 & T3 type games. They are selling basketball rights as well in this package so it will affect CBS.

If things are tightening for sports money we will see that in what is paid for the 2nd half which might very well be just T2 & T3 type games.

2. Nobody is leaving any conference right now, or for 6 years.

3. There will be a new contract when they know who is joining and how it will be carried.

I would be shocked as well, as I see the value in OK and FSU to the SEC. But assuming the rumors are true and FSU/GT/UVA/UNC to the Big 10 with ND? + ?, that definitely hedges the SEC in. At that point, we would have to expanded reactively in order to get a comparable new contract/look-in.

Oklahoma would still be an option, but we may be forced to take OK State with them for 16. We might wind up with Kansas instead of the strong eastern push.

We would also have to consider Miami, which isn't quite as good a fit, though still reasonable. Clemson might jump up our target list.

But either way our options are weaker: instead of something like OK/FSU/VT/UNC, we get OK/Miami/VT/Clemson or OK/OK State/Kansas/VT or OK/Miami/VT/Duke or something like that, meaning fewer new markets and potentially not as crazy a contract.

On the other hand if the market system falls way to a saturation system we may be okay, but the Big 10 may still be perceived to have the upper hand. So even if this rumor is unrealistic, it is at least something Big 10 should consider.

(04-20-2016 05:30 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(04-19-2016 11:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The six year deal ends right at the time the GOR's start to expire (given the 2 year pre notification of a move required by both conferences). It could also very well be an indication that sports broadcast rights fees have reached a peak, or is nearing one. With the delivery model up in the air given technological improvements, they may well be skittish to sign a longer one.

Remember the SEC can renegotiate with additions. We aren't locked down in that regard.

All of these rumors swirling seem very far fetched to me. Can you really see Georgia Tech and Florida State in the Big 10? I can't. If F.S.U. is negotiating seriously with the Big 10 it is probably to pressure ESPN to let them move to the SEC.

I would be shocked should the SEC permit F.S.U. go to the Big 10.

What I think the rights deal means is simply this:
1. There are only so many must see games in the not very deep Big 10. They have 5 football brands (OSU, MSU, UM, PSU, Neb) and Wisky is new to the party. They don't all play each other. There are fewer than 11 must see games in the Big 10's T1 inventory. The rest are T2 & T3 type games. They are selling basketball rights as well in this package so it will affect CBS.

If things are tightening for sports money we will see that in what is paid for the 2nd half which might very well be just T2 & T3 type games.

2. Nobody is leaving any conference right now, or for 6 years.

3. There will be a new contract when they know who is joining and how it will be carried.

I would be shocked as well, as I see the value in OK and FSU to the SEC. But assuming the rumors are true and FSU/GT/UVA/UNC to the Big 10 with ND? + ?, that definitely hedges the SEC in. At that point, we would have to expanded reactively in order to get a comparable new contract/look-in.

Oklahoma would still be an option, but we may be forced to take OK State with them for 16. We might wind up with Kansas instead of the strong eastern push.

We would also have to consider Miami, which isn't quite as good a fit, though still reasonable. Clemson might jump up our target list.

But either way our options are weaker: instead of something like OK/FSU/VT/UNC, we get OK/Miami/VT/Clemson or OK/OK State/Kansas/VT or OK/Miami/VT/Duke or something like that, meaning fewer new markets and potentially not as crazy a contract.

On the other hand if the market system falls way to a saturation system we may be okay, but the Big 10 may still be perceived to have the upper hand. So even if this rumor is unrealistic, it is at least something Big 10 should consider.

There are some things you need to remember.
1. Right now the Big 10 is behind us almost 15 million a year in total revenue. They haven't started pulling in the big bucks yet.

2. No conference has more appeal to the nation than the SEC.

3. Most Southern schools will prefer to keep the locus of their play in the South.

4. All of the Southern schools that may talk to the Big 10 are going to talk to the SEC before making a move. We'll have our chance.

5. There is a 6 year buy in with the Big 10 that keeps most of these schools relatively shortchanged cash wise until they get a full Big 10 share around 2023-4 if movement happens next year.

6. Minor sports travel and travel in general will run them 6 or 7 million more if they join the Big 10.

7. Alumni and fans would pitch a ***** fit if that were to happen.

8. Most Southerners don't give a rats butt about Northern schools and never will.

9. Almost all of these Southern schools would have to add about 7 sports to join the Big 10. That's millions more in overhead.

10. Just because we needed a 10th, how schools travel and buyout their travel allotment of 15,0000 tickets means we will want schools that will travel. Most folks don't fly to games. Certainly not 15,000 and certainly not for all of the away games, or even the simple majority of them. Schools that play locally make more money because their fans care about who they are playing.

(04-20-2016 06:07 PM)JRsec Wrote:  There are some things you need to remember.
1. Right now the Big 10 is behind us almost 15 million a year in total revenue. They haven't started pulling in the big bucks yet.

2. No conference has more appeal to the nation than the SEC.

3. Most Southern schools will prefer to keep the locus of their play in the South.

4. All of the Southern schools that may talk to the Big 10 are going to talk to the SEC before making a move. We'll have our chance.

5. There is a 6 year buy in with the Big 10 that keeps most of these schools relatively shortchanged cash wise until they get a full Big 10 share around 2023-4 if movement happens next year.

6. Minor sports travel and travel in general will run them 6 or 7 million more if they join the Big 10.

7. Alumni and fans would pitch a ***** fit if that were to happen.

8. Most Southerners don't give a rats butt about Northern schools and never will.

9. Almost all of these Southern schools would have to add about 7 sports to join the Big 10. That's millions more in overhead.

10. Just because we needed a 10th, how schools travel and buyout their travel allotment of 15,0000 tickets means we will want schools that will travel. Most folks don't fly to games. Certainly not 15,000 and certainly not for all of the away games, or even the simple majority of them. Schools that play locally make more money because their fans care about who they are playing.

Some of these reasons are why I tend to think the ACC will stick together for the most part going forward. I suppose there could be a few defections and certainly important ones like Florida State, but most of these schools don't want to be in the B1G or the SEC. Even Maryland didn't really want to move and they're in no way a Southern school.

Considering ESPN's lack of a competitive offer for the B1G 1st Tier, I tend to think they will reserve money to boost the ACC in order to keep that content in place. I think the Big 12's days are numbered, however.

Let's say ESPN moves Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia to the SEC.

Notre Dame finally joins the ACC in full in order to secure the future of the conference. Joining with them is TCU, Houston, and Cincinnati. I'm throwing those 3 in there because they do fit the ACC pattern of finding schools in large metro areas with athletic potential. They'll want the additional markets for the network and there's simply not much else for them on the East Coast.

I have no idea what the B1G might do. They will certainly have the money to attract ACC teams, but considering the other factors, I'm not sure they pull it off.

Would ESPN try to box in Fox & the B1G by strengthening the PAC & ACC?

PAC: Oklahoma, Texas, TT, Oklahoma State

ACC: ND fully & WV

SEC: Kansas & TCU

The B1G options would be locked in with ESPN & would only have Iowa State & UCONN remaining. These three could have a strong voting block & pass any autonomy they wanted. (Multiple divisions, expanded CCG format, etc)

How much would that mega conference network be worth with the SEC, ACC & the PAC? Outside of Chicago, Detroit, Minneapolis & Indianapolis, that pretty much covers all of them & with strong brands. ND may even cover a good portion of them. Something to ponder?