GOP

Trump 39
Cruz 18
Rubio 18
Kasich 11
Bush 10
Carson 4

Democrat

Clinton 52
Sanders 47

(02-16-2016 08:12 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  GOP

Trump 39
Cruz 18
Rubio 18
Kasich 11
Bush 10
Carson 4

Democrat

Clinton 52
Sanders 47

I think a surge is in line for Kasich. Maybe not enough to put him in the top 3 but I think 2-4 should be pretty close. Bush seems like he is fading and Carson is all but done.

Trump: 37
Cruz: 19
Rubio: 16
Kasich 14
Bush: 9
Carson: 5

In regards to Demo©rats, Clinton will win by much more than that.

(02-16-2016 09:10 AM)RedandBlackAttack Wrote:  

(02-16-2016 08:12 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  GOP

Trump 39
Cruz 18
Rubio 18
Kasich 11
Bush 10
Carson 4

Democrat

Clinton 52
Sanders 47

I think a surge is in line for Kasich. Maybe not enough to put him in the top 3 but I think 2-4 should be pretty close. Bush seems like he is fading and Carson is all but done.

Trump: 37
Cruz: 19
Rubio: 16
Kasich 14
Bush: 9
Carson: 5

In regards to Demo©rats, Clinton will win by much more than that.

I thought so too, but Bernie seems to be closing the gap. He has momentum and people are tiring of Hillary. He definitely won't win SC though.

I hope Kasich has a good showing. He's my favorite candidate running right now.

I don't think Kasich will even hit double digits.

Who knows? My prediction in NH was way off. I was pretty close in Iowa, but had Trump eeking it out over Cruz instead of the other way around. If SC pans out the way the polls are coming in, Gary Johnson is sounding better and better.

I've got no clue. The last 5 polls have Cruz at 12, 16, 20, 20 and 23 (not in that order so its not a pattern). Bush ranges from 6 to 13. Trump from 33 to 42. I've got no idea of the order. Cruz may even win-or finish 5th. About the only things I am comfortable saying is that Carson won't finish in the top 3 and Trump won't finish outside the top 3.

spewing liberal talking points in a republican debate will cost trump votes. spitting vituperation about a former republican president who's briefcase he isn't qualified to carry will cost him more votes. being a clueless loudmouth on what a conservative SCOTUS justice looks like at precisely the moment that we need one will cost him even more votes.

whether he still has enough of the yahoo vote to win the primary, however, remains to be seen.

(02-16-2016 09:53 AM)Niner National Wrote:  

(02-16-2016 09:10 AM)RedandBlackAttack Wrote:  

(02-16-2016 08:12 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  GOP

Trump 39
Cruz 18
Rubio 18
Kasich 11
Bush 10
Carson 4

Democrat

Clinton 52
Sanders 47

I think a surge is in line for Kasich. Maybe not enough to put him in the top 3 but I think 2-4 should be pretty close. Bush seems like he is fading and Carson is all but done.

Trump: 37
Cruz: 19
Rubio: 16
Kasich 14
Bush: 9
Carson: 5

In regards to Demo©rats, Clinton will win by much more than that.

I thought so too, but Bernie seems to be closing the gap. He has momentum and people are tiring of Hillary. He definitely won't win SC though.

I hope Kasich has a good showing. He's my favorite candidate running right now.

Source? Project 538 has Hilldawg's lead at 31 points, and on a normal distribution, Bernie's best case scenarios don't even beat Hilldawg's worst case scenarios.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/elec...emocratic/

I've come to the conclusion that the GOP will have to nominate Trump because if they don't, he will run third party.

(02-16-2016 10:34 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  I've come to the conclusion that the GOP will have to nominate Trump because if they don't, he will run third party.

I agree there is a good chance of that, but even so it would be a terrible mistake for the GOP to do that. In other words, the damage Trump could (and would) do to the GOP as a 3rd-party candidate is less than the damage that Trump could (and would) do to the GOP as its nominee.

Not to mention the damage he could (and would) do to the entire nation if he got elected as the GOP nominee.

At any rate, with respect to the South Carolina primary, I think Trump will get around 28-29%.

(02-16-2016 10:33 AM)EagleX Wrote:  spewing liberal talking points in a republican debate will cost trump votes. spitting vituperation about a former republican president who's briefcase he isn't qualified to carry will cost him more votes. being a clueless loudmouth on what a conservative SCOTUS justice looks like at precisely the moment that we need one will cost him even more votes.

whether he still has enough of the yahoo vote to win the primary, however, remains to be seen.

Spewing, spitting, vituperation, clueless, loudmouth, yahoo ... whew.


Anyway, I think Trump wins, but Cruz might surprise me.

Hilary wins but not by enough to damage Sanders over the long haul.

(02-16-2016 10:34 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  I've come to the conclusion that the GOP will have to nominate Trump because if they don't, he will run third party.

. . . and if they do nominate him, some mainstream candidate will run third party. this is why a divisive, bomb throwing, semi-psychotic personality like trump in a presidential race is lethal.

(02-16-2016 10:33 AM)EagleX Wrote:  spewing liberal talking points in a republican debate will cost trump votes. spitting vituperation about a former republican president who's briefcase he isn't qualified to carry will cost him more votes. being a clueless loudmouth on what a conservative SCOTUS justice looks like at precisely the moment that we need one will cost him even more votes.

whether he still has enough of the yahoo vote to win the primary, however, remains to be seen.

One would think, but the polling is not reflecting that. The guy has a cult that represents about 30% of the GOP and about 40%+ are willing to vote for him. By the time the field gets down to about 2 or 3 where he may be beatable, it might be too late.

(02-16-2016 10:38 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(02-16-2016 10:34 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  I've come to the conclusion that the GOP will have to nominate Trump because if they don't, he will run third party.

I agree there is a good chance of that, but even so it would be a terrible mistake for the GOP to do that. In other words, the damage Trump could (and would) do to the GOP as a 3rd-party candidate is less than the damage that Trump could (and would) do to the GOP as its nominee.

Not to mention the damage he could (and would) do to the entire nation if he got elected as the GOP nominee.

It's too late for him to run 3rd party. Most states have sore loser laws and he won't qualify for many ballots as an independent.

Trump wins with between 25 and 30%
Kasich,Cruz,Rubio,Bush will all be within 5%points of each other and all will move on.

Hillary wins by more than predicted. The Sanders effect is getting ready to end.

(02-16-2016 12:57 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  Trump wins with between 25 and 30%
Kasich,Cruz,Rubio,Bush will all be within 5%points of each other and all will move on.

Hillary wins by more than predicted. The Sanders effect is getting ready to end.

Democrats Nevada caucus is the same day as Republican SC primary. Democrats are later in SC.

(02-16-2016 01:41 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(02-16-2016 12:57 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  Trump wins with between 25 and 30%
Kasich,Cruz,Rubio,Bush will all be within 5%points of each other and all will move on.

Hillary wins by more than predicted. The Sanders effect is getting ready to end.

Democrats Nevada caucus is the same day as Republican SC primary. Democrats are later in SC.

I know SC is an open primary, but can democrats in SC vote in the republican primary and then the democrat primary later or do they have to pick one or the other? In Virginia you pick one or the other, but thy are on the same day.

(02-16-2016 02:11 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(02-16-2016 01:41 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(02-16-2016 12:57 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  Trump wins with between 25 and 30%
Kasich,Cruz,Rubio,Bush will all be within 5%points of each other and all will move on.

Hillary wins by more than predicted. The Sanders effect is getting ready to end.

Democrats Nevada caucus is the same day as Republican SC primary. Democrats are later in SC.

I know SC is an open primary, but can democrats in SC vote in the republican primary and then the democrat primary later or do they have to pick one or the other? In Virginia you pick one or the other, but thy are on the same day.

I don't know the specific rules in SC, but I know in Texas they stamped your voter registration card with Democrat or Republican so you couldn't vote in both.

(02-16-2016 02:11 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(02-16-2016 01:41 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(02-16-2016 12:57 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  Trump wins with between 25 and 30%
Kasich,Cruz,Rubio,Bush will all be within 5%points of each other and all will move on.

Hillary wins by more than predicted. The Sanders effect is getting ready to end.

Democrats Nevada caucus is the same day as Republican SC primary. Democrats are later in SC.

I know SC is an open primary, but can democrats in SC vote in the republican primary and then the democrat primary later or do they have to pick one or the other? In Virginia you pick one or the other, but thy are on the same day.

It's one or the other, but I don't know how they enforce it. My guess is they don't very well.