(02-07-2016 03:02 PM)TribeInTheBurg Wrote:  We're at that level, though. The team has to follow through, but right now we're set up for the most successful run in school history. Given the level of the CAA, that puts us at the "regular NIT participant" stage.

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Agreed - worst case, if we keep it up but don't win the CAAT is another NIT invite making it two in a row for the Tribe!!! That makes us a "regular NIT participant" in my book!

No RPI Top 50 wins and LOSS TO HOWARD! (on today's ESPN bubble watch). If that game screws us, I will be pissed. Talk about a RPI killer.

Howard RPI is now #315!?! How in the hell did we choke that game away is still a mystery to me.

On a related note, UNCW was in the group of other teams receiving votes in this weeks AP poll.

Well we are the highest rated RPI team to not even be listed on the bubble by Lunardi or Palm. It is as if we do not exist. At least the ESPN bubble watch mentions us, even derisively. We are not even listed as a possible candidate on SI, cbssports.com or any other site that I can find. It really does not matter right now because Feb. losses will affect many candidates. We need to win Thursday and keep on winning. Each win(other than a win over Drexel) should continue to help us.

(02-09-2016 04:43 PM)Tribester Wrote:  Howard RPI is now #315!?! How in the hell did we choke that game away is still a mystery to me.

I might be wrong, but didn't Howard's one good player(the one who scored like 39 against us) get hurt right after our game and has missed the rest of the year? Doesn't change the fact we blew that game but it makes their RPI probably 100 spots worse than it would have been.

Another take on bracketology for us: https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basket...acketology

They have W&M at a 61% chance of making the tourney (22.3% autobid, 38.3% at-large). If we get to 25 wins (counting the 2 D-II wins), they give W&M a 100% chance of making the tourney. 24 wins (again counting the 2 D-II wins) gives us a 98.8% chance of making the tourney.

(02-09-2016 04:43 PM)Tribester Wrote:  Howard RPI is now #315!?! How in the hell did we choke that game away is still a mystery to me.

Easy. W&M shot like 1/10 from the FT line in the last minute

Like Teamrankings.com. It boosts my spirits. Hoping for another big win Thursday. Pulling for Dayton, C. Michigan and UVA tonight.

If anyone had told me back in 1991 that we would have a program 25 years later that was competitive on a nightly basis, won 20 or more games back to back years, and even won a total of 2 CAA tournament games(much less 4 finals in 8 years), I would have laughed in their face. Tremendous credit goes to all the players of the last 8 years, the staff, and coaches for helping to make a fun program to follow with high character people. It has the potential to be a fun month. Plenty of Tribe Pride here. Cannot wait to see some of you in Baltimore. I cannot describe how much I would like to see the Tribe win in Baltimore, but the journey has been worthwhile regardless.
-- Now time for a beatdown of the Hofstra Pride. Hoping we run them right out of Kaplan arena.

(02-09-2016 06:11 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  Like Teamrankings.com. It boosts my spirits. Hoping for another big win Thursday. Pulling for Dayton, C. Michigan and UVA tonight.

If anyone had told me back in 1991 that we would have a program 25 years later that was competitive on a nightly basis, won 20 or more games back to back years, and even won a total of 2 CAA tournament games(much less 4 finals in 8 years), I would have laughed in their face. Tremendous credit goes to all the players of the last 8 years, the staff, and coaches for helping to make a fun program to follow with high character people. It has the potential to be a fun month. Plenty of Tribe Pride here. Cannot wait to see some of you in Baltimore. I cannot describe how much I would like to see the Tribe win in Baltimore, but the journey has been worthwhile regardless.
-- Now time for a beatdown of the Hofstra Pride. Hoping we run them right out of Kaplan arena.

Just booked my flights today!

(02-09-2016 05:40 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  

(02-09-2016 04:43 PM)Tribester Wrote:  Howard RPI is now #315!?! How in the hell did we choke that game away is still a mystery to me.

I might be wrong, but didn't Howard's one good player(the one who scored like 39 against us) get hurt right after our game and has missed the rest of the year? Doesn't change the fact we blew that game but it makes their RPI probably 100 spots worse than it would have been.

Here's the impact of the Howard loss on your RPI. You're 41st in the RPI from BBstate. I used BBstate for strength of schedule details that Warren Nolan's site doesn't provide. I calculated William & Mary's RPI with the Howard game changed to a win, and it would put you 30th in the RPI from BBstate.

We can't do anything about games played. Let's punch Hofstra in the mouth and roll.

(02-09-2016 11:21 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  

(02-09-2016 05:40 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  

(02-09-2016 04:43 PM)Tribester Wrote:  Howard RPI is now #315!?! How in the hell did we choke that game away is still a mystery to me.

I might be wrong, but didn't Howard's one good player(the one who scored like 39 against us) get hurt right after our game and has missed the rest of the year? Doesn't change the fact we blew that game but it makes their RPI probably 100 spots worse than it would have been.

Here's the impact of the Howard loss on your RPI. You're 41st in the RPI from BBstate. I used BBstate for strength of schedule details that Warren Nolan's site doesn't provide. I calculated William & Mary's RPI with the Howard game changed to a win, and it would put you 30th in the RPI from BBstate.

According to live-rpi.com's rpiwizard we are currently 38th (projected 40th) in the RPI. Flip the Howard loss and our projection goes to 27th. More than anything, however, it will be pointed to as a bad loss by the selection committee. That's where it really hurts us.

(02-10-2016 05:38 AM)Tribal Wrote:  We can't do anything about games played. Let's punch Hofstra in the mouth and roll.

Yep. All we can do is handle our business as best we can and hope the chips fall our way.

(02-10-2016 09:41 AM)TribeNiner Wrote:  

(02-09-2016 11:21 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  

(02-09-2016 05:40 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  

(02-09-2016 04:43 PM)Tribester Wrote:  Howard RPI is now #315!?! How in the hell did we choke that game away is still a mystery to me.

I might be wrong, but didn't Howard's one good player(the one who scored like 39 against us) get hurt right after our game and has missed the rest of the year? Doesn't change the fact we blew that game but it makes their RPI probably 100 spots worse than it would have been.

Here's the impact of the Howard loss on your RPI. You're 41st in the RPI from BBstate. I used BBstate for strength of schedule details that Warren Nolan's site doesn't provide. I calculated William & Mary's RPI with the Howard game changed to a win, and it would put you 30th in the RPI from BBstate.

According to live-rpi.com's rpiwizard we are currently 38th (projected 40th) in the RPI. Flip the Howard loss and our projection goes to 27th. More than anything, however, it will be pointed to as a bad loss by the selection committee. That's where it really hurts us.

If W&M had a top-50 win to counter-balance the Howard loss it would matter less. Unfortunately they don't have one of those this season (thanks a whole lot, NC State).

(02-10-2016 10:04 AM)Rocco Wrote:  

(02-10-2016 09:41 AM)TribeNiner Wrote:  

(02-09-2016 11:21 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  

(02-09-2016 05:40 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  

(02-09-2016 04:43 PM)Tribester Wrote:  Howard RPI is now #315!?! How in the hell did we choke that game away is still a mystery to me.

I might be wrong, but didn't Howard's one good player(the one who scored like 39 against us) get hurt right after our game and has missed the rest of the year? Doesn't change the fact we blew that game but it makes their RPI probably 100 spots worse than it would have been.

Here's the impact of the Howard loss on your RPI. You're 41st in the RPI from BBstate. I used BBstate for strength of schedule details that Warren Nolan's site doesn't provide. I calculated William & Mary's RPI with the Howard game changed to a win, and it would put you 30th in the RPI from BBstate.

According to live-rpi.com's rpiwizard we are currently 38th (projected 40th) in the RPI. Flip the Howard loss and our projection goes to 27th. More than anything, however, it will be pointed to as a bad loss by the selection committee. That's where it really hurts us.

If W&M had a top-50 win to counter-balance the Howard loss it would matter less. Unfortunately they don't have one of those this season (thanks a whole lot, NC State).

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The RPI numbers are created by a computer with no human intervention. However, to the best of my knowledge the "Selection Committee" is comprised of actual human beings, who use the RPI as a tool in their selection process. If this is the case, and if the Tribe continues to play well [but does not win the CAAT] is it not possible that the committee would give less weight to an early season loss [like to Howard] and more weight to overall conference and late season play??

(02-06-2016 06:38 AM)mrjoolius Wrote:  Worrying about a selection committees decisions ultimately is pointless. As someone said earlier, just win. The goal should be the regular season title and NIT autobid that comes with it. The next goal is winning the tournament. Everything else doesn't matter because it is out of our control. Realistically this team, this season, is not going to get an at-large. Realistically this team is going to lose some games. The CAA is too good not to.

Agee completely Mr J. With all this hub bub about Monmouth. No mention of Wichita St, St Mary's, or Gonzaga. It's flattering to be considered in the same breath with these guys. They are on another level.

I agree with just focus on what is immediately ahead and try and win games. I think what I find frustrating is that the CAA is the best it has been it several years and rated higher as a league than it was in 2006 or 2011 when it got multiple bids. Yet, it would appear there is no love for any of the schools. If the Tribe, or Hofstra, or UNCW goes 14-4 or better in the league, it should get consideration given how strong the league is this year. Are any of those 3 one of the best 68?(Or roughly best 50 when factoring in some of the auto bids?). I say yes.

None of it affects the goal of winning the regular season or the tournament and the real examination begins in 3 weeks.

(02-10-2016 12:26 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  I agree with just focus on what is immediately ahead and try and win games. I think what I find frustrating is that the CAA is the best it has been it several years and rated higher as a league than it was in 2006 or 2011 when it got multiple bids. Yet, it would appear there is no love for any of the schools. If the Tribe, or Hofstra, or UNCW goes 14-4 or better in the league, it should get consideration given how strong the league is this year. Are any of those 3 one of the best 68?(Or roughly best 50 when factoring in some of the auto bids?). I say yes.

None of it affects the goal of winning the regular season or the tournament and the real examination begins in 3 weeks.

Your big problem is that you are looking at the Conference and not the individual teams.

In 2005-2006, there were 3 teams in the CAA with RPIs between 20-30. Mason got an at-large that year and was 3-3 against the RPI top 50 and 8-6 against the RPI top 100. Their worst loss that year was at RPI 113 Mississippi State by 2 points. Hofstra did not get in which many blame to a poor OOC SOS

In 2010-2011, we had 2 teams in the 20-30 range and VCU at 49. Mason was 3-2 against the RPI top 50 and 7-4 against the RPI top 100 with a worst loss against 125 NC State (and only 1 other bottom 100 loss). VCU was 3-6 against the RPI top 50 and 8-8 against the RPI top 100 with 3 bad losses. Many questioned whether they deserved to be in because of their losses but 9 top 50 games and going .500 in 16 top 100 games helped them.

As you can see, the top of the leagues were stronger than they are now. The bottom is stronger now but that does not make as much of a difference when figuring out who is beating the best.

(02-10-2016 11:17 AM)62Indian Wrote:  The RPI numbers are created by a computer with no human intervention. However, to the best of my knowledge the "Selection Committee" is comprised of actual human beings, who use the RPI as a tool in their selection process. If this is the case, and if the Tribe continues to play well [but does not win the CAAT] is it not possible that the committee would give less weight to an early season loss [like to Howard] and more weight to overall conference and late season play??

Sure. However the committee has shown a strong preference towards mid-majors with big wins. They look hard at who you played and who you beat. W&M's got the first part covered. Murray State last year was unbeaten in their conference and missed the tourney. W&M has a better SOS than Murray State did last year so that helps but the lack of quality wins will be used as a cudgel against them. W&M would need an extremely strong finishing kick (5-1 or 6-0, avenge Towson/UNCW/Hofstra, don't slip up @Elon) and some other teams to stumble to have a good argument but I don't have much faith in the committee looking their way unless necessary.

I think, if we DO need an at-large bid, that we will be regretting the Dayton loss, more than any other.

That game should have been a Tribe win. It would count, in the committee room, as a Top 50 Win, a "OOC Good" win and a "OOC Road" win, all which help your profile.

Unfortunately, the final 2:41 of that game, we got away from what had gotten us to that point (running the set offense and getting easy shots) and fired up a few too many quick 3's (which, obviously, didn't fall).

However, as someone said in another thread about looking back, "No use crying over spilt milk." It is what it is. Take care of what you can control today.