Week 4 is in the books. I was going to wait a little while longer to make my latest updates on my "metrics". But I figured....why not make this a weekly thing?

As usual, teams are graded 0-10 on the following categories:

* Coaching
* Veteran presences
* Depth (both quality and quantity)
* Turnover success (creation on defense and avoidance on offense)
* Control of the paint (offensive putbacks and shot changing/blocking)
* Free throw shooting (who can make them with tired legs?)


I have provided the changes since last week for each category, to show how teams have moved up or down with the new information at hand.

Enjoy!


Thru Week 4: Teams that will not win in Baltimore


Delaware

Coaching: 0 (- 1)
Veteran Presences: 6 (+ 1)
Depth: 1 (+ 1)
Turnover Success: 0
Control of the Paint: 5 (- 1)
Free Throw Shooting: 3 (- 2)
TOTAL SCORE: 15 (- 2)

The Hens have certainly played better than they were earlier in the season, with Marvin King-Davis and Kory Holden continuing to shoulder the load. But their heavy reliance on the "core 3" and lack of emerging bench players continue to keep them from finishing games and being much of a factor in CAA play.


Elon

Coaching: 5
Veteran Presences: 4
Depth: 4
Turnover Success: 2
Control of the Paint: 1
Free Throw Shooting: 0 (- 1)
TOTAL SCORE: 16 (- 1)

Elon had their worst week to date, suffering blowout losses to W&M and JMU. Senior Tanner Samson continues to do yeoman's work to try to help the Phoenix rise out of the fire, but it hasn't been enough. The continued absence of Tony Sobato, over-reliance on the 3 ball, too many turnovers and bad free throw shooting has taken their surprise start and resulted in a 3-5 CAA record.


Charleston

Coaching: 6
Veteran Presences: 2 (- 3)
Depth: 5 (- 1)
Turnover Success: 5 (- 2)
Control of the Paint: 3 (- 1)
Free Throw Shooting: 1
TOTAL SCORE: 25 (- 7)

The loss of Canyon Barry for the season makes Charleston the team with the most precipitous fall in these rankings. He represented a veteran leader and steady hand for a team now struggling to score and avoid turnovers. Their top 3 scorers are a Sophomore and 2 freshmen. They have also not seen improvement in other areas unrelated to Barry. The Cougars will stay in a lot of games thanks to their defense, but with with scoring numbers only going up across the NCAA, the types of wins they got this past week (scoring 40 and 59, respectively) are not sustainable, and make them a team that is not a threat in Baltimore.


Drexel

Coaching: 1 (- 1)
Veteran Presences: 4
Depth: 3
Turnover Success: 9 (+ 4)
Control of the Paint: 4 (- 2)
Free Throw Shooting: 8 (+ 4)
TOTAL SCORE: 29 (+ 5)

Despite a pair of losses this week, the Dragons are displaying some positive trends that will put them in position to pull off a big upset in the CAA Tournament. They're currently the 2nd best FT-shooting team and the best in turnover margin in the conference in CAA-only games. Their solid post play has fallen off a bit, and of course the team may need to win in spite of Bruiser, but there's no doubt this team has a lot of fight.


Teams that might win in Baltimore


Hofstra

Coaching: 4 (+ 1)
Veteran Presences: 10
Depth: 0
Turnover Success: 7 (- 1)
Control of the Paint: 9 (+ 4)
Free Throw Shooting: 3
TOTAL SCORE: 33 (+ 4)

The Pride have made some nice leaps in these metrics thanks to some truly impressive play of late. In CAA-only games they are # 1 in the conference in offensive-rebounding, with a mind boggling 60-rebound game against the Huskies in triple OT. Their collective achilles' heel are lack of depth (4 Hofstra players appear in the top 7 in minutes) and poor Free Throw shooting. Their conditioning is truly impressive to this point in the season, but is the crash coming? Players simply cannot keep their legs all season at this pace. But until they do, Hofstra remains tied for first and presents a major threat.


Towson

Coaching: 7 (+ 1)
Veteran Presences: 8 (+ 2)
Depth: 3 (+ 1)
Turnover Success: 0 (- 5)
Control of the Paint: 10 (+ 1)
Free Throw Shooting: 6 (+ 1)
TOTAL SCORE: 34 (+ 1)

The Tigers had a mixed week, and thus it is hard to either get too down about their loss to Charleston OR too high about a road win against Northeastern. They have a tremendous starting 5 who can score and dominate the post. But they do have major turnover struggles that cannot be ignored, and their bench, while earning more minutes of late, isn't making a major impact on games. They are a good bet to finish in the Top 6 and be a factor in Baltimore, especially with the tourney occurring in their backyard. But they're not quite where they need to be to be a top contender.


Best bets to win in Baltimore


Northeastern

Coaching: 10
Veteran Presences: 7 (- 1)
Depth: 2 (- 1)
Turnover Success: 7 (+ 2)
Control of the Paint: 2 (- 3)
Free Throw Shooting: 9
TOTAL SCORE: 37 (- 3)

After losing a pair of games this week to drop to .500, it would have been expected for the Huskies to see a major fall in the rankings. However, I just don't see it. Bill Coen has earned the benefit of the doubt to suggest that these midseason struggles will be righted later in the season to some extent. Perhaps they are no longer the top contender to defend their title, but they are in the running for sure. Quincy Ford's absence hurt them in a bad way against Towson, and even with him the Huskies are struggling in the post. This is the most concerning aspect of their play. Not to mention, Jeremy Miller is making some freshman mistakes. But having a trustworthy coach means I'm not ready to slide them down too far. Provided, of course, that Ford's injury is not a long-term one.


UNCW

Coaching: 7 (+ 1)
Veteran Presences: 4 (+ 2)
Depth: 7
Turnover Success: 9 (- 1)
Control of the Paint: 5
Free Throw Shooting: 7
TOTAL SCORE: 39 (+ 2)

The Seahawks won their 5th-straight game to move into a share of first place. And while their wins this past week were against the two bottom teams in the league, they continue to show they have a lot of qualities that will prove useful in Baltimore. The improved play of CJ Gettys and Chuck Ogbodo in the post may not be showing up in the rebounding numbers, but the Seahawks continue to be the top team in blocking shots. And while the Seahawks went from a top team nationally in turnover margin to more modest numbers against familiar CAA teams, they are still 2nd in this category. In addition, redshirt Juniors Denzel Ingram and Chris Flemmings have suddenly positioned the Seahawks to be a more "mature" team than originally thought.


James Madison

Coaching: 6 (+ 3)
Veteran Presences: 10
Depth: 9 (+ 2)
Turnover Success: 4 (+ 2)
Control of the Paint: 7
Free Throw Shooting: 4 (- 6)
TOTAL SCORE: 40 (+ 1)

Matt Brady is proving a lot of doubters (myself included) wrong this season. Thus, the Dukes get a big bump in coaching. Like UNCW, JMU has won 5 straight, and they are looking like a championship-caliber team in nearly every category. They have veteran leadership in Ron Curry, more depth than perhaps any team in the league, and are improving in taking care of the ball. They have the best record against top teams of any CAA team, coming off a year where they went 0-6 against the top 3. The Dukes are the most improved team from last season and are rolling right now.


William & Mary

Coaching: 10
Veteran Presences: 9 (+ 1)
Depth: 8 (+ 1)
Turnover Success: 1 (- 3)
Control of the Paint: 7
Free Throw Shooting: 6 (- 1)
TOTAL SCORE: 41 (- 2)

The Tribe have displayed some chinks in the armor of late that will need to be improved to maximize their chances in Baltimore. Most notably, they are turning over the rock at a high rate, despite typically strong point guard play from David Cohn. Even he, however, committed 5 such miscues in a blowout loss to Hofstra. Nevertheless, they remain the league favorites in my mind based on their track record of success under Tony Shaver as well as a lot of impressive veterans. They'll struggle against Hofstra (as will everyone right now), but match up well with every other team in the league, and still look like the best bet to win 3 in Baltimore.

Not much argument from me, but if you put us in the best bets, Towson has to be there as well.

Despite losing every game including a couple blowouts since the last edition we gained steam...lol FYI I dont disagree in some areas, but for a team who is 1-7 it doesnt make much sense to have jumped 2 teams, unless it is believed that a. the conference just plain sucks, especially the bottom half of the conference or b. you feel like Drexel is much better than their record shows, which at this point how many more losses do you need to be convinced this is a bad team that may struggle to win any games going forward (UDel aside)

(01-25-2016 01:51 PM)dan10 Wrote:  Despite losing every game including a couple blowouts since the last edition we gained steam...lol FYI I dont disagree in some areas, but for a team who is 1-7 it doesnt make much sense to have jumped 2 teams, unless it is believed that a. the conference just plain sucks, especially the bottom half of the conference or b. you feel like Drexel is much better than their record shows, which at this point how many more losses do you need to be convinced this is a bad team that may struggle to win any games going forward (UDel aside)

As I mentioned on the JMU board: These aren't power rankings. They're a reflection of how teams look in the areas I felt mattered most in a tournament setting.

You jumped Charleston because they lost Barry, who accounted for about 30 % of that team's scoring. And you jumped Elon because they've displayed no improvement in areas that could lead to sustainable success in Baltimore. Drexel still isn't a good team, but among the bottom 4, I think they're the most dangerous to upset one of the top 6.

(01-25-2016 02:33 PM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  

(01-25-2016 01:51 PM)dan10 Wrote:  Despite losing every game including a couple blowouts since the last edition we gained steam...lol FYI I dont disagree in some areas, but for a team who is 1-7 it doesnt make much sense to have jumped 2 teams, unless it is believed that a. the conference just plain sucks, especially the bottom half of the conference or b. you feel like Drexel is much better than their record shows, which at this point how many more losses do you need to be convinced this is a bad team that may struggle to win any games going forward (UDel aside)

As I mentioned on the JMU board: These aren't power rankings. They're a reflection of how teams look in the areas I felt mattered most in a tournament setting.

You jumped Charleston because they lost Barry, who accounted for about 30 % of that team's scoring. And you jumped Elon because they've displayed no improvement in areas that could lead to sustainable success in Baltimore. Drexel still isn't a good team, but among the bottom 4, I think they're the most dangerous to upset one of the top 6.

But you are forgetting, or not weighing properly, the most important key. The coach.

Bruiser in the CAAT: 6-14

2 of those wins were without his own players (his 2nd season here in in '02-'03), and only one other time has he ever won multiple games ('11-'12). So in 14 years he has won a game in the CAAT 4 times, with 2 of those times he won 2 and made it to monday, once without his players and once with his best team he will ever have that had no business not dancing. So 10 times in 14 years he has bowed out in round 1, many times as the favorite. There is a reason every year every team hoped to draw Drexel down there. Point being, we dont deserve to be ahead of anyone when it comes to chance in the CAAT, regardless of improvements. History doesnt lie.

I think you leave out an important category of rebounding, while including turnovers, which of course favors UNCW. If you look at the stats, rebounding is more indicative of the tops teams, with W&M Hofstra, JMU and Towson being the only teams with a + in rebounding differential.

Based on that, i'd move Towson into the likely to win category, and move UNCW into the "may" win category. The rest looks accurate.

Towson is a darkhorse. Its a shame they had a poor showing in Charleston for their Thanksgiving tournament b/c they are a good team. Hopefully their fans will give them some solid support down the stretch

(01-25-2016 06:47 PM)82hawk Wrote:  I think you leave out an important category of rebounding, while including turnovers, which of course favors UNCW. If you look at the stats, rebounding is more indicative of the tops teams, with W&M Hofstra, JMU and Towson being the only teams with a + in rebounding differential.

Rebounding factors in to "Control of the Paint". I looked at Rebounding margin, offensive rebounding and blocks there.

The first post said about Hofstra "In CAA-only games they are # 1 in the conference in offensive-rebounding, with a mind boggling 60-rebound game against the Tribe in triple OT." The 60 rebound game was against Northeastern.

Edit: Seahawk Nation 08 might be over-critizing Hofstra's free throw shooting. While I admit that it's not good, it's .678, which is 8th in the CAA. The two middle teams in the CAA are at .683 and .688. Is 5 or 10 more misses per 1,000 attempts worse than the CAA median a big deal? Furthermore, if you take out Malik Nichols, who is out for the season, the rest of Hofstra has a free throw percentage of .697, which would be 4th in the CAA.