XLance
Hall of Famer
Posts: 14,407
Joined: Mar 2008
Reputation: 791
I Root For: Carolina
Location: Greensboro, NC
|
RE: So what happens if the Big 12 expands?
(01-11-2016 08:54 AM)TerryD Wrote: (01-09-2016 10:53 AM)JRsec Wrote: (01-09-2016 03:39 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote: If the Big 12 expands I think we will have the status quo until the end of the GOR's. I don't see Oklahoma or Texas being happy with the expansion though. If the ACC doesn't have a network by then then it would be vulnerable also. The B1G & SEC would most likely go to war & in essence create a P3 but have the leftovers merge into a tweener conference. Chaos would undoubtedly ensue. Or, what I think would be more likely, a new conference will be formed around Texas, Oklahoma, ND, FSU & Clemson creating a balanced P4. This would essentially be a partial merger of the Big 12 & the ACC. The SEC & B1G could still pickup 2 each. ESPN & Fox would have to decide what they want or risk going to war themselves. I'm not convinced that college football wants a P3 as that would all but guarantee that someone would get 2 into the CFP. The scenarios are endless. Brokering the moves now I think would be far less chaotic. I think #2 would be the least likely.
Stop and rethink what you propose not from the vantage point of a fan, or of a college administration, but from the vantage point of the Networks. What are the athletic brands of the ACC? Don't think academics, don't think historical control, and don't think of who the Big 10 or SEC would want.
Football brands: Florida State, Clemson, gap, Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia Tech
Basketball brands: North Carolina, Duke, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Virginia gap, N.C. State, Miami.
Now ask this question, "If we parse the ACC in order to maximize content value in the SEC, the Big 10, or in a new conference built around Texas and Oklahoma how do we decide to this?
The answer to that question is not as obvious as you might think. What adds more content value to the Big 10 basketball or football brands? Frankly I would argue that basketball brands add more value to the Big 10 than football brands would. Why? The best football brands of the ACC are not really contiguous and the basketball brands are. The football brands of the Big 10 are so iconic, and limited, that adding even Florida State to them does not maximize the commercial value of Florida State or the Big 10 as much as it would if Florida State was pitted against the brands of the SEC. Nor would it enhance the Big 10 as much as it would a rebuilt football conference centered around Texas and Oklahoma.
So if you are a network executive who realizes that the most value you could get out of moving teams from the ACC to the Big 10 would be for basketball brands, and that the requirements of the Big 10 were best suited for those schools rather than for football brands what do you do?
Syracuse, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, and possibly Pitt become the schools you look at moving. Notre Dame wants to be with those schools. Notre Dame has hockey. Notre Dame plays solid basketball (men's & women's). And more importantly Notre Dame wants to pursue lacrosse. Not so oddly the Big 10 has the same objectives. So if you are moving to a P4 set up by design then Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and Notre Dame to the Big 10 would provide the optimum mix of schools. 2 huge markets, 4 academic powerhouses, 2 solid basketball brands, 2 good basketball brands, and one solid football brand with one good football brand is almost the ideal addition to the Big 10 considering no other conference expects to be able to land Notre Dame outside of the ACC, and a rebuilt Big 12 is to distant for Notre Dame minor sports. The Big 10 has really solid branding in hoops. Adding 4 more solid basketball programs to the Big 10 solidifies the interest of New England and the hoops crazy mid Atlantic. Notre Dame immediately multiplies both basketball branding and football branding in the Big 10. And this is done without totally upsetting the SEC, or ruining a chance to enhance the Big 12.
If you take the Big 10 to a 20 team configuration then adding Syracuse and Boston College, or possibly Pitt makes sense. More hoops, more markets, more hockey, more lacrosse all add up to seizing the market you are pursuing.
How do you enhance the value of the SEC? You multiply football content and strengthen their regional appeal. Virginia Tech & N.C. State give them markets and two reasonable football brands. Clemson multiplies their content value as does Florida State. All of the additions serve only to solidify the Southeastern brand of the SEC. Should the SEC move to a P3 model then adding Georgia Tech and Louisville would accomplish the same.
Here two large markets and two large brands are added all of which maximize the profits for the SEC and through the SECN, ESPN.
Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, and Miami could form the Eastern Division of an enhanced Big 12. Adding Cincinnati to Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State could form a very nice Norther Division. Adding Brigham Young and Colorado State to Texas, Texas Tech, T.C.U. and Baylor gives you a very nice Western division. Wake could be replaced by B.C. or UConn if necessary but the NET effect would be the same. Texas and Oklahoma are enhanced with footprint size enough to have a network, by permitting brands to reemerge in the East as Louisville and Miami and West Virginia battle it out for the East with Pitt and Georgia Tech making runs from time to time. They are enhanced by having an annual potential of having Oklahoma emerge from the North, and by having strong viable brands in Texas holding down that 26 million viewer market by continuing to play one another while tying in Denver and bringing in the Mormons.
Jim Delany is ecstatic. The Big 10 president's see it as a grand slam. ESPN gets a long term T1 deal.
The SEC essentially fulfills the goals it had in '91 only with the added markets of Virginia and North Carolina. Rivalries are insured and the content value goes up by a multiple of 2 x 6.
Texas and Oklahoma get their own conference, a network, and avoid leaving their region.
The PAC stands alone at 12 and will have to grow their own expansion. But since it is the next to least profitable conference with the next to least utilized market, and since no national network has a stake in it, that is exactly what the networks would want.
So the new P4 configuration is 18, 18, 18, & 12 = 66 schools. If we move to a P3 it means that the PAC agreed to sell a significant % of their self owned network to ESPN, or FOX, or both and that they will absorb 8 schools from the Big 12, while the SEC & Big 10 take 6 each from the ACC.
If faced with the decision of including another school in a regionally grouped P4 which enhances the greatest value for the network that each conference can offer, or moving to a more balanced P3 but with 6 less schools and more legal headaches, I think the networks lean toward the former.
I would not hold my breath for this.
The ACC and Notre Dame have developed a symbiotic relationship (Mutualism). I don't see that relationship changing any time soon (at least not during this round of realignment).
The Irish will support the ACC's existence in any way possible so that they can remain semi-independent.
|
|