(01-05-2016 04:40 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Way too early lines:

Appalachian State: @ Tennessee, Old Dominion, Miami-FL, @Akron

Arkansas State: Toledo, @Auburn, @Utah State, Central Arkansas

Georgia Southern: Savannah State, @Western Michigan, @Mississippi, @Georgia Tech

Georgia State: Ball State, @Air Force, @Wisconsin, UT-Martin

Idaho: Montana State, @Washington, @Washington State, @UNLV

Louisiana Lafayette: Boise State, McNeese State, @Tulane, @Georgia

Louisiana Monroe: Southern, @Oklahoma, @Auburn, New Mexico State (not an OOC game?)

New Mexico State: New Mexico, @Kentucky, @Texas A&M, 1-TBA

South Alabama: @Mississippi State, Nichols State, San Diego State, @LSU

Texas State: @Ohio, @Arkansas, Houston, Incarnate World

Troy: Austin Peay, @Clemson, @Southern Mississippi, Massachusetts

Bolded - TD+ favorite
Underlined - toss up +/- TD line.

14 wins, 5 toss ups, 25 losses.

I'd set the line at 15 regular season OOC wins with 18 or greater being a successful year.

I'm not sure I see Georgia Southern as a TD favorite at Western Michigan, and I'm not entirely sure App or ULL will be TD favorites against Tulane and Akron. They'll all be favorites, but probably not 7 plus point favorites. Not unless those are late season games.

(01-04-2016 02:05 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(01-04-2016 11:29 AM)NCeagle Wrote:  

(01-04-2016 10:24 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  App lost one less FCS game and won 3 more G5 games year over year, there's the difference year over year. The second year in the FBS and good scheduling is a big factor.

scheduling is the key.

As much as we all want shots at schools like Clemson and Alabama, getting more games with teams like Wake forrest, vandy, etc is where we need to be going. Make some money and get a much better shot at getting a win.

Scheduling issues become a key point of dealing with guarantee's. Like most every G5 program, all of us needed cash infusion from a guarantee game to help keep ourselves even on the financial side. The question becomes how do you go about making that money?

Sure, we could all take 750K roughly from Wake and go play a game we have a chance to win, without getting a home game out of the deal, but that requires many teams would have to take a 2nd guarantee to cover the cost, which means 5 home games every other year.

From the Arkansas State perspective, we need between 1.2 and 1.5 million roughly out of our guarantee games. We could either sacrifice the 6 home game yearly thing that we promise our fans and take two 750K paychecks and increase our chances of winning those games, or we could take one gigantic 1.5 million dollar check to play a top level program, accepting the possible loss in exchange for 3 other games we could win.

I know Terry Mohajir has made it clear many times here that we will not do guarantee's against G5 teams, and low level P5's will have to pay 1.5 million or come to Jonesboro. That means most of our guarantees are top level programs, but it also means more home games for fans.

There is no right answer to this debate.

I like the strategy Ark St is using. With that strategy, if you ever pull out a win over that one top level P5 program, you've set yourself up to be ranked in the top 25 as well as having a shot at the access bowl.

(01-09-2016 01:06 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(01-05-2016 04:40 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Way too early lines:

Appalachian State: @ Tennessee, Old Dominion, Miami-FL, @Akron

Arkansas State: Toledo, @Auburn, @Utah State, Central Arkansas

Georgia Southern: Savannah State, @Western Michigan, @Mississippi, @Georgia Tech

Georgia State: Ball State, @Air Force, @Wisconsin, UT-Martin

Idaho: Montana State, @Washington, @Washington State, @UNLV

Louisiana Lafayette: Boise State, McNeese State, @Tulane, @Georgia

Louisiana Monroe: Southern, @Oklahoma, @Auburn, New Mexico State (not an OOC game?)

New Mexico State: New Mexico, @Kentucky, @Texas A&M, 1-TBA

South Alabama: @Mississippi State, Nichols State, San Diego State, @LSU

Texas State: @Ohio, @Arkansas, Houston, Incarnate World

Troy: Austin Peay, @Clemson, @Southern Mississippi, Massachusetts

Bolded - TD+ favorite
Underlined - toss up +/- TD line.

14 wins, 5 toss ups, 25 losses.

I'd set the line at 15 regular season OOC wins with 18 or greater being a successful year.

I'm not sure I see Georgia Southern as a TD favorite at Western Michigan, and I'm not entirely sure App or ULL will be TD favorites against Tulane and Akron. They'll all be favorites, but probably not 7 plus point favorites. Not unless those are late season games.

I think GS has a better chance to be a TD favorite than App.

App could lose, but they'll likely be TD favorites, especially if we can keep Miami close.

(01-05-2016 04:40 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Way too early lines:

Appalachian State: @ Tennessee, Old Dominion, Miami-FL, @Akron

Arkansas State: Toledo, @Auburn, @Utah State, Central Arkansas

Georgia Southern: Savannah State, @Western Michigan, @Mississippi, @Georgia Tech

Georgia State: Ball State, @Air Force, @Wisconsin, UT-Martin

Idaho: Montana State, @Washington, @Washington State, @UNLV

Louisiana Lafayette: Boise State, McNeese State, @Tulane, @Georgia

Louisiana Monroe: Southern, @Oklahoma, @Auburn, New Mexico State (not an OOC game?)

New Mexico State: New Mexico, @Kentucky, @Texas A&M, 1-TBA

South Alabama: @Mississippi State, Nichols State, San Diego State, @LSU

Texas State: @Ohio, @Arkansas, Houston, Incarnate World

Troy: Austin Peay, @Clemson, @Southern Mississippi, Massachusetts

Bolded - TD+ favorite
Underlined - toss up +/- TD line.

14 wins, 5 toss ups, 25 losses.

I'd set the line at 15 regular season OOC wins with 18 or greater being a successful year.

ULM plays New Mexico in OOC, not New Mexico State.

(01-05-2016 04:27 PM)FloridaJag Wrote:  SBC OOC schedules

Appalachian State: @ Tennessee, Old Dominion, Miami-FL, @Akron

Arkansas State: Toledo, @Auburn, @Utah State, Central Arkansas

Georgia Southern: Savannah State, @Western Michigan, @Mississippi, @Georgia Tech

Georgia State: Ball State, @Air Force, @Wisconsin, UT-Martin

Idaho: Montana State, @Washington, @Washington State, @UNLV

Louisiana Lafayette: Boise State, McNeese State, @Tulane, @Georgia

Louisiana Monroe: Southern, @Oklahoma, @Auburn, New Mexico State

New Mexico State: New Mexico, @Kentucky, @Texas A&M, 1-TBA

South Alabama: @Mississippi State, Nichols State, San Diego State, @LSU

Texas State: @Ohio, @Arkansas, Houston, Incarnate World

Troy: Austin Peay, @Clemson, @Southern Mississippi, Massachusetts

2016 ULM OOC games with Southern, @ Oklahoma, @ Auburn, @ New Mexico
(New Mexico comes to Monroe in 2019)

(01-09-2016 12:08 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  

(01-09-2016 01:06 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(01-05-2016 04:40 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Way too early lines:

Appalachian State: @ Tennessee, Old Dominion, Miami-FL, @Akron

Arkansas State: Toledo, @Auburn, @Utah State, Central Arkansas

Georgia Southern: Savannah State, @Western Michigan, @Mississippi, @Georgia Tech

Georgia State: Ball State, @Air Force, @Wisconsin, UT-Martin

Idaho: Montana State, @Washington, @Washington State, @UNLV

Louisiana Lafayette: Boise State, McNeese State, @Tulane, @Georgia

Louisiana Monroe: Southern, @Oklahoma, @Auburn, New Mexico State (not an OOC game?)

New Mexico State: New Mexico, @Kentucky, @Texas A&M, 1-TBA

South Alabama: @Mississippi State, Nichols State, San Diego State, @LSU

Texas State: @Ohio, @Arkansas, Houston, Incarnate World

Troy: Austin Peay, @Clemson, @Southern Mississippi, Massachusetts

Bolded - TD+ favorite
Underlined - toss up +/- TD line.

14 wins, 5 toss ups, 25 losses.

I'd set the line at 15 regular season OOC wins with 18 or greater being a successful year.

I'm not sure I see Georgia Southern as a TD favorite at Western Michigan, and I'm not entirely sure App or ULL will be TD favorites against Tulane and Akron. They'll all be favorites, but probably not 7 plus point favorites. Not unless those are late season games.

I think GS has a better chance to be a TD favorite than App.

App could lose, but they'll likely be TD favorites, especially if we can keep Miami close.

Well yeah, but a lot of that is going to come down to how you do against Miami. I would normally not make GS a 7 point favorite at anyone, but that game is a few games into the year, and the Eagles are pretty certain to have a couple early conferences games before then. If they are sitting at 3-0 heading into that game, and they very well could be, I could see it.

Both Akron and WMU are bowl teams though that won 7 games last year, it's just hard for me to see anyone being that decided a favorite over them.

Side note, but I do think Arkansas State will likely be very slight favorites at Utah State next year. Depending what the Toledo line is, we could be favored in 11 of our 12 games next year.

Vegas loves to make App the favorite, App was a TD+ favorite is every game except for Clemson.

We get way more respect than we deserve when it comes to lines.

Akron loses their entire starting offensive line, their #1 and #2 running backs, and five of their defensive front seven. Yeah, we should be favored.

(01-09-2016 02:25 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Vegas loves to make App the favorite, App was a TD+ favorite is every game except for Clemson.

We get way more respect than we deserve when it comes to lines.

I think it caught up to APP at the end of the year, but for the most part the lines were indicative of the strength of APP's performance. 6-7 against the number.


09/05/15 HOW W 49-0 W -33
09/12/15 @CLEM L 10-41 L 18.5
09/26/15 @ODU W 49-0 W -7.5
10/03/15 WYO W 31-13 L -26
10/10/15 @GSU W 37-3 W -14.5
10/17/15 @ULM W 59-14 W -14
10/22/15 GASO W 31-13 W -6
10/31/15 TROY W 44-41 x L -24
11/05/15 ARST L 27-40 L -12.5
11/14/15 @IDHO W 47-20 W -20.5
11/28/15 ULL W 28-7 L -22
12/05/15 @USA W 34-27 L -18
12/19/15 OHIO W 31-29 L -7