So our last OOC game is next week at NC State. It will be important to win this game if we have dreams of an at large bid.

Going 8-4 so far is okay, but it's tough to look at those loses at Miami, Detroit, and Western Michigan and be happy. Maybe the silver lining is that those loses were on the road and we could have easily won all 3, but it's still tough to swallow.

Up 9 late in 2nd half vs. Miami and blow it.
Miss late shot to win vs. Detroit to win
Miss two late shots including a gimme put back to win at the buzzer vs. W. Michigan.

Fact is the win at Miami and our decent schedule overall puts us at a chance for an at large bid still. According to live rpi, we can go 14-5 the rest of the way for an expected RPI of 38, which puts us in a good spot. That doesn't include conference tournament, so we would have to go 2-1 in that to keep it up probably. Going 13-5 in conference would be tough but plausible. That means we need a win at NC State.

A win at NC State would give us another Big 5 win, which I think the selection committee would like.

Thankfully, the success of our conference and our own schedule puts us in a spot where 24-10 could get an at large. We need our freshman to step up. We need to shoot FTs better *cough* TJ Williams *cough*

I think we can beat NC state, but can we go 13-5 in conference? I think we can. I think we are better than our 8-4 record so far.

I would like the CAA to get at-large bids, and I have a relative who attends and works at Northeastern, but I would not expect an at-large bid with 10 losses. Northeastern has the fourth best RPI in the CAA. If the team with the better current RPI wins every CAA game or if the amount of times the team with the worse current RPI wins produces the same number of wins and losses for Northeastern, they will go 12-6 in CAA play.

Yeah, 10 losses seems like a lot for a mid major at large. But if it comes with an RPI of 38 and road wins at Miami and possibly NC state, it would make the committee think about it.

Looking at the RPI forcasts, if we go by the assumption that a CAA team will need an RPI of 40 or better to have a chance, then what follows:

Allowed 5 more losses:
Northeastern
William and Mary

Allowed 4 more losses:
Elon

Allowed 3 more losses:
UNCW
JMU
Charleston
Hofstra

Bonus to NU, W&M, CoC, and Hofstra who have wins over Big 5 schools.

Of course the RPI forecast isn't perfect, since the projections might not match experience as we play out.

Can we see a 14-4 or 15-3 team win this conference? Maybe, I would love to see multiple teams in the tourney again.

We have a shot but definitely need to win at NC State and can't go 12-6 again in the CAA.

Keep in mind our blowout wins over Harvard and Stony Brook could also carry some weight. As Harvard is charging up the RPI ranks with their wins in the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii (they play Oklahoma in the championship tonight on ESPNU).

And SB is the clear favorite in the America East, they just have to close the deal in the tournament after shi**ing the bed in the title game three times.

Detroit (loss) and BU (win) could also win their respective league tourneys too.

(12-24-2015 11:12 AM)SomebodyToLove Wrote:  Yeah, 10 losses seems like a lot for a mid major at large. But if it comes with an RPI of 38 and road wins at Miami and possibly NC state, it would make the committee think about it.

I don't think Northeastern will have an RPI of 38 if they have 10 losses. If Northeastern loses in the CAA Tournament Final, they will play 33 games before the NCAA Tournament, which means they're 1/3rd done. Although this method won't work exactly, I multiplied the current RPI value for 38th by 3 to divide it into thirds, subtracted Northeastern's RPI through one-third of their games, and divided by two to get the remaining part from two-thirds to one-third to estimate the RPI value Northeastern would need the rest of the season to climb to 38th. This value is in between the current RPIs of the 15th and 16th best team, so it will be very hard for Northeastern to achieve.

Big game vs. NC State. A win would be huge for the team, and would give the CAA another Big 5 win. Important game as OOC schedule comes to a close.

Need to make shots, or this will be Michigan State all over again....

Up 8-7 at 11:57 in the 1st

Down 27-25 at half. We can beat this team. Walker invisible so far - if he gets going we will win. We need to shoot better than 20% from 3PT and 50% from FT.

We stopped playing offense. Ford has done nothing this half. Bad shots. Down 50-41 with 10 minutes left. NC State on a 15-3 run. Oh well...

Loss here hurts. Couldn't stop Barber. Fell apart completely inside on offense. Oh well, sorry CAA.