(12-01-2015 07:37 AM)BigTribe2 Wrote: For the first time this season I am not confident about our chances of winning.
"Revenge" and all that is fine, but the reality is our defense has swooned terribly the past two games--
it was poor against UR where they shredded our line at will with their rushing attack and it was even worse against Duqesne where our pass defense was totally missing in action.
I disagree somewhat with those who believe UR will run, run, run against again. Unless we can control Richmond's two great receivers they will chew us up.
Hopefully our defensive schemes will change for Richmond.
I find your lack of faith........ disturbing!
I can't argue with any points about the defense or our lack of recent success against Richmond. I would say this in the Tribe's favor:
1) Richmond's defense was gashed by JMU, NH, Albany and Villanova. Granted, most of those games were on the road, but it is possible to score 30 or even 40+ on them.
2) Even in the game 2 weeks ago, Richmond turned the ball over. Unfortunately, we failed to take advantage of those turnovers. If they turn it over again, I would expect us to get more out of the turnovers. New Hampshire got 5 turnovers from Richmond and they have played loose with the ball for a month.
3) Richmond might be overconfident. Much like our start Saturday, it affects 18-21 year olds when they think a game is a foregone conclusion. The Tribe will have to overcome its own terrible first quarters to take advantage of this. Even during our win streak, the first quarter was our worst in nearly every game.
4) We need 2-3 big plays. We got none against Richmond two weeks ago. A long pass, flea flicker, blocked kick, 70 yard Anderson run, DHC interception return all would qualify. Even in our 2 other losses, we got several big plays to give us big momentum. I would expect we get some big plays.
5) The Lines are the key. No one dominates us the last 3 years(not even Va Tech or UVA) up front like Richmond has. That drive Saturday for our last points was all about dominating the man in front of you and making him go where he did not want to go. It was sheer will. If the O-Line dominates, Cluely makes really, really good decisions with the ball. If he feels or gets actual pressure, we sometimes get bad short passes and sometimes interceptions. Plus, Kendall and Saboor build in intensity with each big run. Essentially, exactly as Richmond has made our defense feel the last several years. Physically dominated.
6) On defense, we need pressure to force errant throws. Our DB's got eaten alive on Saturday, but against Richmond, the running game killed us. It was 8-10 yards every play on the ground and now Fisher is coming back. There is no other way to say it: We need the real Luke Rhodes. He has had a fabulous career for the Tribe and he is one of my favorites. We need his leadership, but we need him, Zach Fetters and the rest of the linebackers to reek havoc on the Spiders Saturday. Richmond is going to score a significant number no matter what. This isn't the 2013 Tribe defense, and Richmond moved at will on that unit too. But, Luke has always made several key special plays in big spots. We need him flying to the ball and the QB. If we see 2-3 yard runs(instead of 8-10) and someone other Claytor getting pressure, our DB's will have a real chance. Without pressure, I think Richmond's wideouts(who are each better than the Duke player we failed to cover) will destroy us.
7) If all else fails, play 1980's Tribe football and go for the 59-49 win. Expect every play in the offensive playbook to be used.
I know we can beat the Spiders. It is time to remind the Spiders of the Tribe team the rest of the CAA has gotten to see the last 3 seasons.