Boise State was a preseason Top 25 team by most publications. When it comes to the big bowl for the little guys the first thing that comes to mind is Boise State. The three time Fiesta Bowl winner practically has its name on the automatic bid.

Boise goes out and loses to BYU. It's no big deal. Go out and lose to Utah State, "OK". When they drop a third game to New Mexico its three strikes and you're out.

Eight days ago Memphis was ranked #13 in the country and an outside contender for not the G5 autobid which they were running away with but the a spot in the 4 team playoff itself.

Inexplicably they allow NAVY of all teams to blow them out by 25 points at home. Nobody did see that one coming. The very next week up 20 points on the road at Houston they mysteriously collapse to lose the game in the final seconds. Within 8 days they go from ranked ahead of Oklahoma State to being locked out of the AAC Championship game.

Temple was supposed to go into its matchup with Memphis with both teams undefeated right? The loser would have 1 loss and effectively make the AAC Championship game a 100% autobid lock with a week to go in the season. Now both schools are entering this game not undefeated but with 2 losses.

This wasn't supposed to happen!

Jeff Sagarin G5 Top 10 for 11/15

27 Houston
28 Navy
36 Memphis
37 Bowling Green
41 Boise State
44 Toledo
51 Temple
53 Western Kentucky
56 San Diego State
58 Cincinnati

-Houston and Navy are very close together in SOS. This week they'll be the only ranked teams in the CFP rankings.

-Memphis has been eliminated from CFP consideration. Bowling Green then is the next in SOS line with an SOS expected to go up if they can win against Toledo next week.

-Temple and WKU are the only other two schools with a clear path for winning a conference championship. Temple of course has an uphill challenge to win the AAC starting with next week against Memphis. WKU has to get past Marshall to secure its own division title.

Sagarin Top 5 schedules of autobid contenders:

Navy (84)
Bowling Green (85)
Temple (92)
Toledo (98)
Houston (103)

-Navy has played the best schedule, albeit just barely. They do have to play Memphis which will add some SOS and the winner of Navy/Memphis will have defeated 2 Top 25 teams.

-Bowling Green plays Toledo next week to further advance their schedule. They have the most likely path of any of the 2 loss conference champs (BGSU, Temple, WKU, App State) to the autobid.

Lol Toledo...

They just lost to NIU and their 4th string QB

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Contenders Check in for 11/15 (AP for Rankings):

American Athletic
Houston 10-0 (W 34-31 Louisville, W 34-0 Vanderbilt, W 35-34 #25 Memphis, 11/27 #19 Navy)
Navy 8-1 (L 41-24 #15 Notre Dame, W 45-20 #15 Memphis, 11/27 #13 Houston)
Temple 8-2 (W 27-10 Penn State, L 24-20 #9 Notre Dame)

Mid American
Bowling Green 8-2 (W 48-27 Maryland, W 35-28 Purdue, L 59-30 #25 Tennessee)
Toledo 8-1 (W 16-12 #18 Arkansas, W 30-23 Iowa State)

Conference USA
Western Kentucky 8-2 (W 14-12 Vanderbilt, L #5 48-20 Louisiana State)
Marshall 9-2 (W 41-31 Purdue)

Sun Belt
Appalachian State 8-2 (L 42-10 #12 Clemson)

The Top 5 contenders at this point for the autobid.

1) Houston 10-0 (W 34-31 Louisville, W 34-0 Vanderbilt, W 35-34 #25 Memphis, 11/27 #19 Navy)
2) Navy 8-1 (L 41-24 #15 Notre Dame, W 45-20 #15 Memphis, 11/27 #13 Houston)
3) Bowling Green 8-2 (W 48-27 Maryland, W 35-28 Purdue, L 59-30 #25 Tennessee)
4) Temple 8-2 (W 27-10 Penn State, L 24-20 #9 Notre Dame)
5) Western Kentucky 8-2 (W 14-12 Vanderbilt, L #5 48-20 Louisiana State)

-Houston now has the best resume with 2 P5 wins and a win over a ranked Memphis team. Compare that to Navy who only has a win over Memphis and no P5 wins.

-Temple's resume looks more and more like Western Kentucky's. Penn State did not become the dominant B1G force as predicted. Memphis won't be ranked next week when the two schools meet.

Chances Alive: Houston, Navy
Chances w/ Pulse: Bowling Green, Temple, Western Kentucky
Chances on Life Support: Toledo, Marshall, App State
Dead: Anyone else.

The thing is- Temple would absolutely be ahead of Bowling Green if they win out. They would have wins over Memphis and then top 25 Houston or Navy. Temple totally controls their own destiny over Bowling Green.

Percentages to earn G5 autobid for schools that control their own destiny:

Navy/Houston game winner (65%). The winner of Houston or Navy game is projecting to have wins over 2 ranked teams. The winner would host the championship game and be an odds on favorite.

Bowling Green (15%). They'll need to win out and have Navy/Houston lose the championship game. Toledo game is going to be tough and anything can happen in the MAC Championship game.

Temple (12%). They won't be favored against Memphis or the AAC Championship game and can't afford another loss. Still if they do make the AAC Championship game anything can happen.

Western Kentucky (3%). The chances here a very slight because it would take Temple or South Florida winning the AAC and BG collapsing. They have to play Marshall but its at home which will help. The CUSA Championship game would also be played at home.

If Temple is 11-2 and AAC champions, sorry Bowling Green and Western Kentucky couldn't do a damn thing about it.

(11-15-2015 02:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The thing is- Temple would absolutely be ahead of Bowling Green if they win out. They would have wins over Memphis and then top 25 Houston or Navy. Temple totally controls their own destiny over Bowling Green.

Temple's chances of beating Memphis and going on the road to win the AAC Championship game are slim.

BG's chances of winning out and winning the MAC Championship in Detroit MI against a more distant school like NIU that will bring less fans are much better.

At this point the Houston/Navy game winner should rep the G5 and that will hold true all the way until the games of championship week.

(11-15-2015 02:41 PM)stever20 Wrote:  If Temple is 11-2 and AAC champions, sorry Bowling Green and Western Kentucky couldn't do a damn thing about it.

Temple is not going to be the AAC champ at 11-2.

(11-15-2015 02:44 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 02:41 PM)stever20 Wrote:  If Temple is 11-2 and AAC champions, sorry Bowling Green and Western Kentucky couldn't do a damn thing about it.

Temple is not going to be the AAC champ at 11-2.

But would you agree that if Temple is AAC champ at 11-2, they are the G5 rep?

(11-15-2015 02:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 02:44 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 02:41 PM)stever20 Wrote:  If Temple is 11-2 and AAC champions, sorry Bowling Green and Western Kentucky couldn't do a damn thing about it.

Temple is not going to be the AAC champ at 11-2.

But would you agree that if Temple is AAC champ at 11-2, they are the G5 rep?

They just lost by 21 to South Florida and only have 1 P5 win.

The SOS favors Bowling Green over Temple.

Navy could win the West with 2 losses. That would spoil a G5 championship for Temple.

I wouldn't be surprised if South Florida won the AAC East since they wrap up with UC and UCF that is terrible while Temple has Memphis and an improved UConn to contend with.

(11-15-2015 02:53 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 02:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 02:44 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 02:41 PM)stever20 Wrote:  If Temple is 11-2 and AAC champions, sorry Bowling Green and Western Kentucky couldn't do a damn thing about it.

Temple is not going to be the AAC champ at 11-2.

But would you agree that if Temple is AAC champ at 11-2, they are the G5 rep?

They just lost by 21 to South Florida and only have 1 P5 win.

The SOS favors Bowling Green over Temple.

Navy/Houston could win the West with 2 losses. That would spoil a G5 championship for Temple.

I wouldn't be surprised if South Florida won the AAC East since they wrap up with UC and UCF that is terrible while Temple has Memphis and an improved UConn to contend with.

First off, Houston can NOT win the west with 2 losses. If they lose to Navy, they are done. For Navy to win the west with 2 losses, they would have to lose to Tulsa.

The SOS does not favor Bowling Green over Temple.
Sagarin-
BG 85- plus Toledo(44), Ball St(129)
Temple 92- plus Memphis(36), UConn(91)
then the CCG, where Temple plays either Navy or Houston(27 or 28), while BG plays NIU most likely(69). So, no, you are WRONG....

Just admit, if Temple wins the AAC at 11-2, there isn't a damn thing BG can do about it.

(11-15-2015 02:59 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 02:53 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 02:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 02:44 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 02:41 PM)stever20 Wrote:  If Temple is 11-2 and AAC champions, sorry Bowling Green and Western Kentucky couldn't do a damn thing about it.

Temple is not going to be the AAC champ at 11-2.

But would you agree that if Temple is AAC champ at 11-2, they are the G5 rep?

They just lost by 21 to South Florida and only have 1 P5 win.

The SOS favors Bowling Green over Temple.

Navy/Houston could win the West with 2 losses. That would spoil a G5 championship for Temple.

I wouldn't be surprised if South Florida won the AAC East since they wrap up with UC and UCF that is terrible while Temple has Memphis and an improved UConn to contend with.

First off, Houston can NOT win the west with 2 losses. If they lose to Navy, they are done. For Navy to win the west with 2 losses, they would have to lose to Tulsa.

The SOS does not favor Bowling Green over Temple.
Sagarin-
BG 85- plus Toledo(44), Ball St(129)
Temple 92- plus Memphis(36), UConn(91)
then the CCG, where Temple plays either Navy or Houston(27 or 28), while BG plays NIU most likely(69). So, no, you are WRONG....

Just admit, if Temple wins the AAC at 11-2, there isn't a damn thing BG can do about it.

Don't forget Toledo. The school with 1 close loss to 5 time defending MAC West champions NIU.

Toledo could beat BG and rear its ugly head as a 1 loss winner. They would beat out Temple at 2 losses IMO.

The only thing I would concede as a lock is if the Navy/Houston game winner wins the AAC championship. Either that will be an undefeated Houston, a 1 loss Navy with 2 wins over ranked opponents, a 1 loss Houston with 2 wins over ranked opponents or a 2 loss Navy team with wins over ranked opponents.

Toledo is the only one that could stop Temple at 11-2. But Toledo has to win both of their games- and have NIU lose to either W Michigan or Ohio- 2 6-4 teams at home. That's a HUGE ask right now.

(11-15-2015 04:11 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Toledo is the only one that could stop Temple at 11-2. But Toledo has to win both of their games- and have NIU lose to either W Michigan or Ohio- 2 6-4 teams at home. That's a HUGE ask right now.

So is Temple winning the AAC at 11-2.

(11-15-2015 04:30 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 04:11 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Toledo is the only one that could stop Temple at 11-2. But Toledo has to win both of their games- and have NIU lose to either W Michigan or Ohio- 2 6-4 teams at home. That's a HUGE ask right now.

So is Temple winning the AAC at 11-2.

at least Temple controls their own destiny, Not Toledo. Toledo needs help to just make the MAC title game.

(11-15-2015 04:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 04:30 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 04:11 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Toledo is the only one that could stop Temple at 11-2. But Toledo has to win both of their games- and have NIU lose to either W Michigan or Ohio- 2 6-4 teams at home. That's a HUGE ask right now.

So is Temple winning the AAC at 11-2.

at least Temple controls their own destiny, Not Toledo. Toledo needs help to just make the MAC title game.

This is coming from the same guy who continued to say Navy was in third in their division despite being undefeated in league play and continuing to say they didn't control their own destiny for the access bowl. One week later they were the highest ranked G5 team in the playoff poll and most likely will be when they face Houston in 2 weeks.

Well Temple's loss and if they lose to Memphis, keeps all that other CCG's in play.
We may see a 3 loss G5 team in the Access Bowl if Houston or Navy loses in the AAC CCG.

Still need to wait till the last week of the season to see the scenarios play out....including the MW.

Sorry, Air Force, Boise, or San Diego St have no chance.