I've enjoyed flying mostly under the radar.

(11-07-2015 11:05 PM)Rocco Wrote:  I've enjoyed flying mostly under the radar.

I agree, but this is the time would be good to surge and get a favorable seeding.

We're peaking at the right time, so to speak. Our loss was early, and by one point. We've rattled off a series of wins that include Nova, UNH, and JMU. Those first two are looking better right now. We handled Elon and can prove our strength against a possible playoff team in six days followed by a chance to really show off on national TV (no more curse!). We will be top 10 this week and have a chance to really put ourselves in a position to play a couple of playoff games at home when the students are there and in need of a break from studying.

Watched the entire UR game. Rocco blew it, UNH could not stop the run, and he kept throwing. One thing UNH did that JMU did not was pressure the QB. They also played up on the receivers. If we do not put pressure on the QB, and play off the ball we will get eaten alive on the short outs, and run the risk of missed tackles and big gainers.

Not to look past TU, who have been on, and have played great "D". OL have to play hard, and we need to control the clock. DL needs to get some push, and we need to tackle. Hopefully, being home again, against a solid conf. foe will get the guys focused. Guys dinged up on the defense.

Would it be safe to assume that a potential December 5 home playoff game would be a night game? Tribe hoops is in Charlottesville, and I'd love to see both if such a thing were to come to pass.

The last couple of home first round games have been day games. Weber State was a day game, and Georgia Southern was a day game.

(11-10-2015 01:32 PM)WM Beancounter Wrote:  The last couple of home first round games have been day games. Weber State was a day game, and Georgia Southern was a day game.

My guess is the NCAA tells us the time.

(11-10-2015 01:32 PM)WM Beancounter Wrote:  The last couple of home first round games have been day games. Weber State was a day game, and Georgia Southern was a day game.

No the Georgia Southern game was cancelled and then they cancelled the rest of the playoffs too. That's how I remember it.

(11-10-2015 01:56 PM)zablenoise Wrote:  

(11-10-2015 01:32 PM)WM Beancounter Wrote:  The last couple of home first round games have been day games. Weber State was a day game, and Georgia Southern was a day game.

No the Georgia Southern game was cancelled and then they cancelled the rest of the playoffs too. That's how I remember it.

This. Times Ten.

(11-10-2015 01:56 PM)zablenoise Wrote:  

(11-10-2015 01:32 PM)WM Beancounter Wrote:  The last couple of home first round games have been day games. Weber State was a day game, and Georgia Southern was a day game.

No the Georgia Southern game was cancelled and then they cancelled the rest of the playoffs too. That's how I remember it.

I rather admire your (lack of) memory.

Looking at the probability of winning out in both of their remaining games as assessed by Massey, the 6 potential CAA play-off teams show the following approximate odds of taking both of their last games:

JMU = 62%
W&M = 50%
UNH = 45%
Richmond = 18%
Villanova = 17%
Towson = 14%

We all know that the CAA in November usually does not play out as a computer model would predict, but I found this interesting.

So the computer is taking Villanova over Richmond? And by a fairly healthy percentage too it seems

(11-12-2015 12:54 PM)zablenoise Wrote:  So the computer is taking Villanova over Richmond? And by a fairly healthy percentage too it seems

They are giving nova 57-43 edge over Richmond and W&M a 59-41 edge over Richmond. I'd be shocked if UR loses both.

(11-12-2015 02:04 PM)LeadBolt Wrote:  

(11-12-2015 12:54 PM)zablenoise Wrote:  So the computer is taking Villanova over Richmond? And by a fairly healthy percentage too it seems

They are giving nova 57-43 edge over Richmond and W&M a 59-41 edge over Richmond. I'd be shocked if UR loses both.

But that would be sweet.......

(11-12-2015 02:04 PM)LeadBolt Wrote:  

(11-12-2015 12:54 PM)zablenoise Wrote:  So the computer is taking Villanova over Richmond? And by a fairly healthy percentage too it seems

They are giving nova 57-43 edge over Richmond and W&M a 59-41 edge over Richmond. I'd be shocked if UR loses both.

I don't see anyway Richmond loses both. They barely lost to New Hampshire despite being -5 in turnovers in the game. Their offense is going to score against Villanova and the Wildcats don't the offense to keep up. So, unless Richmond commits a large number of turnovers again, I don't see how they lose.

As for our game with the Spiders, I would be shocked if they are not favored against us. I expect us to win because we have to complete our 2014 revenge tour, but objectively Richmond should be favored since they are at home and likely will have had only one misstep. Certainly their loss at New Hampshire is probably better than ours at Delaware.

Our 2015 schedule is much tougher than Richmond's. No URI or Albany on our schedule. The fact that we are tied with them for first is remarkable.

They lost to a terrible UMD by 29 and we lost a terrible UVA by 6.

They beat HU by 3 and we won by 33. They don't play UD. They lost to UNH and we beat them by 16.

We should be favored at UR assuming we beat Towson.

(11-12-2015 05:49 PM)Tribal Wrote:  Our 2015 schedule is much tougher than Richmond's. No URI or Albany on our schedule. The fact that we are tied with them for first is remarkable.

They lost to a terrible UMD by 29 and we lost a terrible UVA by 6.

They beat HU by 3 and we won by 33. They don't play UD. They lost to UNH and we beat them by 16.

We should be favored at UR assuming we beat Towson.

Playing devil's advocate I'd counter that Hampton and UMD were UR's first two games of the season and they had a slow start before hitting their stride. We played UNH at home and it was Goldrich's first game back. UR lost at UNH to a fully recovered Goldrich lead offense. UR beat JMU on the road with Vad Lee playing most of the game. We beat JMU at home playing against his back-up.

No arguing our SOS has been tougher.

I hate defending UR in any way, but I'd put us as even or slight dogs on the road at UR.

The new nobowls.com predictions are out. I hate that bracket. The concept of us playing JMU so quickly again would not be my first choice and then a trip to the FargoDome would not be either. My recollection is that they don't follow geographics as much after the opening round. Nobowls does have 5 CAA teams getting in though, including Richmond, New Hampshire and Towson at 7-4.

I really hate how all the bracket projections look. No one has us as a top 4 seed and they usually have us playing UR or JMU in the 2nd round. We just played them I don't want to do it again. I'm starting to feel like Rodney Dangerfield.

There is no way we get a top 4 seed, IMO.

The Delaware loss was a long time ago, but it will hurt us.

I'm not sure how much geography and bus trips play into the bracket...