It is way too early to make predictions for any given game because of injuries, etc. but I think we can develop a consideration for how difficult our OOC schedule will be.

While technically we play 6 home games and 5 away, the timing of our games is very problematic. By my count only two of home OOC games will be played while our students are in session. On the other hand, all but one of our away OOC games will be played when the other team's students are in class.

We will be playing three top-40 (per ESPN) teams on the road: NC State, Virginia, Dayton

We will be playing two more schools in the Mid-Major Top 15: ODU and Central Michigan.

We will be playing two more schools expected to compete for their conference titles: Hampton, High Point

Our two "easiest" DI games are both on the road: Liberty, Howard.

The most "predictable" way to go 6-5 requires those two road wins against Liberty and Howard and the two home wins against Hampton & High Point (remember Hight Point has beaten us the last two years). To exceed 6-5 would require signature wins.

In a way it's a testament to the development of this program that 6-5 seems achievable and that we can dream of maybe doing better.

Continuing my monologue on this subject, the Big South coaches poll released today picked High Point as the favorite to win the conference. Two weeks ago Hampton was picked second in the MEAC coaches poll (and Howard was picked 5th).

We're giving ourselves the opportunity to win games against quality opponents. I like the OOC and think it will be a good prep for conference schedule.

In years past, we'd play better OOC because our offense isn't complicated, meaning that long-time conference coaches knew how to best defend it. The difference then was that we didn't have the talent to take advantage of it (aside from 2010). The talent level of our team has significantly improved the success of the system. We used to be dependent on flawless execution to get players open looks, and now we have players that are also able to get their own shots. Honestly, we should have had better results OOC last year, but we had issues with performance (bad shooting nights, etc) in those games. We're now set up to potentially surprise teams.

(10-27-2015 03:07 PM)TribeInTheBurg Wrote:  In years past, we'd play better OOC because our offense isn't complicated, meaning that long-time conference coaches knew how to best defend it. The difference then was that we didn't have the talent to take advantage of it (aside from 2010). Now there are a lot of relatively new coaches in the league who aren't as familiar with our system. Also the talent level of our team has significantly improved the success of the system. Whereas before we were dependent on flawless execution to get players open looks, now we have players that are also able to get their own shots. Honestly, we should have had better results OOC last year, but we had issues with performance (bad shooting nights, etc) in those games. We're now set up to potentially surprise teams.

agreed. When we are not way off performance wise, such as the 2nd half vs. UNC last year, we can cause all of these guys fits. I like that we are more aggressive in the OOC scheduling. I think that will pay off later in the year. I'm looking for ward to seeing things get under way in Raleigh.

Looking forward very much to this Thursday evening's scrimmage at Kaplan when Tony hosts the annual season ticket holders event.

I'm sure there will be a very large crowd and it will be interesting to say the least.

With a seasoned UVA #3 in many pre-season polls behind #1 Duke and #2 Kentucky, there is a real possibility the Cavs will be #1 by our Dec 5th game, since the Duke and Kentucky forecasts are with yet to be played freshmen.

(10-27-2015 03:43 PM)Tribeheart Wrote:  With a seasoned UVA #3 in many pre-season polls behind #1 Duke and #2 Kentucky, there is a real possibility the Cavs will be #1 by our Dec 5th game, since the Duke and Kentucky forecasts are with yet to be played freshmen.

Unlikely with UVA actually #6 in both polls.

Associated Press Top 25
1. North Carolina
2. Kentucky
3. Maryland
4. Kansas
5. Duke
6. Virginia

Coaches Poll
1. North Carolina
1. Kentucky
3. Maryland
4. Duke
5. Kansas
6. Virginia

(10-27-2015 03:43 PM)Tribeheart Wrote:  With a seasoned UVA #3 in many pre-season polls behind #1 Duke and #2 Kentucky, there is a real possibility the Cavs will be #1 by our Dec 5th game, since the Duke and Kentucky forecasts are with yet to be played freshmen.

If it weren't for recent success of both Duke and UK with different freshmen, in addition to mostly creampuff starts to the season, that might be possible.

With Kentucky/Duke, North Carolina/Maryland and Kansas/Michigan St matchups early, there is a good chance UVA may be as high as #3.

While its nice to play a respectable OOC schedule, rarely does it move the meter in either direction for us come tournament time. The reality has been and still is.... our yellow brick road goes through Baltimore in March. We certainly had a justifiable case for an "at large" back in 2010 which included quality OOC wins, but still ended up in the NIT. That being said, this team/staff has earned the opportunity to play quality OOC opponents and clearly that is the case this season. The next step will be to start bringing some of the premier OOC games to Kaplan. Keep stringing 20 win seasons together and playing for (hopefully winning) conference titles and we will see top teams willing to come to Williamsburg. Tony and his staff have built a solid base for this program and it is refreshing to begin the last few seasons with legitimate expectations. Our job is to pack the Kap and be loud.

Dayton up 16 over Alabama at the half.

(11-07-2015 08:44 PM)BurgTribeFan Wrote:  While its nice to play a respectable OOC schedule, rarely does it move the meter in either direction for us come tournament time. The reality has been and still is.... our yellow brick road goes through Baltimore in March. We certainly had a justifiable case for an "at large" back in 2010 which included quality OOC wins, but still ended up in the NIT. That being said, this team/staff has earned the opportunity to play quality OOC opponents and clearly that is the case this season. The next step will be to start bringing some of the premier OOC games to Kaplan. Keep stringing 20 win seasons together and playing for (hopefully winning) conference titles and we will see top teams willing to come to Williamsburg. Tony and his staff have built a solid base for this program and it is refreshing to begin the last few seasons with legitimate expectations. Our job is to pack the Kap and be loud.

2010 had nice wins but also lots of dumb RPI-killing losses. Mid-major teams can't really afford more than one of those a season.

Dayton destroyed Alabama 80-48. I like playing a good OOC schedule. It's not likely we'll get an at large out of the current CAA, but this is the only way to have a chance. Also I believe playing a somewhat difficult OOC prepares us better for the conference wars.

Let's make some noise with this schedule. I'm excited about the opportunity. I'm with LB - if we ever want a chance at an at-large we can't rely on the strength of the CAA, so we will have to schedule in a way where if we capture lightning in a bottle, we can do it ourselves.

JMU transfer Charles Cooke the leading scorer for Dayton. Likewise, Damion Lee for Louisville, and Four Glynn for Rhode Island. Sorry to see talent leave the CAA, but, also, indication that current CAA talent is far better than given credit for..

Obviously it's super early in the season so this doesn't mean much, but as of today, the CAA pretty much dominates the top 20 RPI.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketba..._/sort/RPI

Thought it might be interesting to assign a grade to the first quarter of the season (quarter two = first time through the conference, quarter three = second time through the conference, quarter four = CAA Tournament).

Key measures:

Wins & Losses: Couldn't ask for much better. One headline win and four wins against potential conference winners. One horrible loss but I would have taken 6-5 at the beginning of the year so 8-3 exceeds expectations.
Rotation: Solid. We seem to be settled into a 9-10 man rotation and everyone who plays is contributing. Potential for improvement at point guard and need more consistent backup play at the post but the leaders (Prewitt, Dixon, Tarpey) have stepped up to their new roles and some members of the supporting cast have done quite well (Malinowski, Sheldon, Burchfield).
Health: So far, so good. The trouble spots have been point guard (Tot) and center (Whitman and Seacat, who seem to alternate potential season-ending situations with each pre-game interview with Shaver.)
Competition: I had hoped the tough mid-major teams we played would have stronger RPIs than they currently do. Biggest disappointment of the non-conference portion of our schedule.

I am thinking an overall B+. To get an A, we would have had to beat Howard and our opponents would need better records.

Five years ago I would have given us an A+++++++++++++. But, improving performance generates higher expectations.

(12-30-2015 06:41 PM)tribeinexile Wrote:  Five years ago I would have given us an A+++++++++++++.

This really just says it all.

NCSU, CMU, and HPU will have much better RPIs in a matter of a couple weeks.

And, we more than made up for the Howard debacle with our key victories.