Every week hope springs eternal at G5 programs that this will be the week the power of their overstated enormous media market shows itself of the field.

At the G5 level where everyone doesn't have a coach making 3 million dollars and a 60,000 seater the talent and coaching tends to head to the same schools over and over again. Schools with tradition and institutional commitment in the sport of football.

For the legit candidates for a G5 access bowl that is what you observed on the field this week.

*Portland State 66 North Texas 7 (*wtf)
Bowling Green 62 Massachusetts 38
Western Kentucky 58 Middle Tenn 28
Utah State 56 Fresno St 14
Temple 49 Tulane 10
Houston 49 SMU 28
Boise State 41 Colorado State 10
Toledo 38 Kent State 7
Appalachian State 37 Georgia State 3

Why is BG and UMASS on here... or WKU or GSU... hell if you're being that generous with legit candidates then a LOT more teams are still in this race...

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(10-11-2015 12:45 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  Why is BG and UMASS on here... or WKU or GSU... hell if you're being that generous with legit candidates then a LOT more teams are still in this race...

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My criteria I have listed. A school has to meet both #1 and one of the stipulations in #2 to be considered.

Quote:1) No more than 2 losses. A non-AQ/G5 school has never received a major bowl bid with more than 2 losses.

2a) A win over a P5 school

OR

2b) A win over a ranked school.

OR

2c) A loss to a ranked school.

OR

2d) A ranked school on the future schedule.

Most of the schools in the race stayed in it this week:

American Athletic
Temple 5-0 (W 27-10 Penn State, 10/31 #14 Notre Dame)
Memphis 5-0 (W 55-23 Kansas, 10/17 #13 Mississippi)
Houston 5-0 (W 34-31 Louisville)
Navy 4-1 (L 41-24 #15 Notre Dame)
Cincinnati 3-2 (W 34-23 Miami)
Tulsa 3-2 (L 52-38 #16 Oklahoma)

Mountain West
Boise State 5-1 (W 16-13 Washington, W 56-10 Virginia)
Air Force 3-2 (L 35-21 #4 Michigan State, 11/20 #21 Boise State)
Utah State 3-2 (L 24-14 #22 Utah, 10/16 #21 Boise State)

Conference USA
Western Kentucky 5-1 (W 14-12 Vanderbilt, 10/24 #6 Louisiana State)
Marshall 4-1 (W 41-31 Purdue)

Mid American
Toledo 5-0 (W 16-12 #18 Arkansas, W 30-23 Iowa State)
Bowling Green 4-2 (W 48-27 Maryland, W 35-28 Purdue, L 59-30 #25 Tennessee, 11/17 #22 Toledo)

Sun Belt
Appalachian State 3-1 (L 42-10 #12 Clemson)

The Mountain West division that Boise plays in is getting competitive with Utah State and Air Force with a crack at #21 Boise State.

Bowling Green I like to call out here because they have a very tough schedule for a G5 school. Maryland, Purdue, Tennessee, Memphis, Toledo and a 5-1 Ohio team on the schedule.

1) Toledo 5-0 (W 16-12 #18 Arkansas, W 30-23 Iowa State)
2) Boise State 5-1 (W 16-13 Washington, W 56-10 Virginia)
3) Temple 5-0 (W 27-10 Penn State, 10/31 #14 Notre Dame)
4) Memphis 5-0 (W 55-23 Kansas, 10/17 #13 Mississippi)
5) Bowling Green 4-2 (W 48-27 Maryland, W 35-28 Purdue, L 59-30 #25 Tennessee, 11/17 #22 Toledo)

Jeff Sagarin G5 Top 10 for 10/11

11 Boise State
35 Toledo
40 Western Kentucky
43 Temple
45 Navy
47 Houston
50 Memphis
53 Utah State
57 Louisiana Tech
60 East Carolina

-Boise State is way out in front because they've been steam rolling schools.

-The AAC is definitely the strongest conference this year with 5 of the Top 10 G5 schools.

-Western Kentucky is up there pretty high. They have a chance of making some noise playing #6 LSU

-Memphis is only the 7th rated G5 school in the Sagarins at this time and behind 3 other AAC teams.

Sagarin Top 5 schedules of autobid contenders:

Utah State (58)
Bowling Green (63)
Navy (71)
Boise State (78)
Western Kentucky (83)

-Surprisingly, you don't see a lot of AAC teams on here with a super tough schedule as you would expect how great the conference is performing. Only Navy shows up on the list.

-Utah State and Bowling Green have 2 losses but still have to play ranked teams on the conference schedule. The backdoor to the autobid is very wide for the second best team in the conference to pull off the upsets needed to win the conference.

Sagarin schedules of the Top 5:

1. Alabama (9)
2. Baylor (124)
3. Michigan (28)
4. TCU (46)
5. Clemson (16)

While I do believe all roads go through Boise until they screw up and lose a conference game this year, assuming they win out (likely, since the MWC is definitely in a down year), I like Memphis for the access spot. They will have beat Mississippi and I think the AAC West is the tougher division within the AAC, this year. I have to say, given all of Memphis' not so stellar football history, of late, I'd love to see them slip into the AB on their merits. (For that matter, Temple fits that bill as well. Either would be a great representative of the G5 in that bowl.)

I don't think Toledo is going to survive their conference schedule.

(10-11-2015 03:54 PM)Cnelson203 Wrote:  While I do believe all roads go through Boise until they screw up and lose a conference game this year, assuming they win out (likely, since the MWC is definitely in a down year), I like Memphis for the access spot. They will have beat Mississippi and I think the AAC West is the tougher division within the AAC, this year. I have to say, given all of Memphis' not so stellar football history, of late, I'd love to see them slip into the AB on their merits. (For that matter, Temple fits that bill as well. Either would be a great representative of the G5 in that bowl.)

I don't think Toledo is going to survive their conference schedule.

I'm not sure anyone gets through the AAC unblemished. The west is really tough and in the east Temple has to go to ECU and to USF who looks to be improved not to mention their game against ND. I think Houston has the best chance of pulling it off. They do have to play Cincy, Memphis, and Navy in November but they get all 3 at home.

the thing with all the AAC schools is their schedules are back loaded. You're going to find their SOS going up and up pretty much rest of the year.

(10-11-2015 03:54 PM)Cnelson203 Wrote:  I don't think Toledo is going to survive their conference schedule.

I reckon they have about an even chance of winning out in MAC play, with the most complete defense of the contenders for the MAC title, and I don't think the odds of an AAC school finishing undefeated in the conference is quite that high.

(10-11-2015 08:57 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(10-11-2015 03:54 PM)Cnelson203 Wrote:  I don't think Toledo is going to survive their conference schedule.

I reckon they have about an even chance of winning out in MAC play, with the most complete defense of the contenders for the MAC title, and I don't think the odds of an AAC school finishing undefeated in the conference is quite that high.

Exactly.

Matt Campbell has done a great job of getting his players coached up.

They have a lot more winning tradition than Temple or Memphis that is for certain. Houston maybe more so and from a raw talent perspective may have the most this year.