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WMSB Preview: W&M vs. Villanova & Playoff Odds Talk
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WMSportsBlog Offline
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Post: #1
Exclamation WMSB Preview: W&M vs. Villanova & Playoff Odds Talk
**Post updated to reflect that the Tribe currently has 2 losses**

It's time to get the season back on track. But before we do, let's take a macro/big picture view of the Tribe's current playoff chances. By my calculation, if 7-5 were not good enough to qualify for the FCS playoffs the last two years, then W&M must win at least EIGHT games (8-3 record), and can only afford one more loss over the next 7 games of the season (even still, let's hope that 7-4 might be good enough to qualify this year..fingers crossed).

Two of the remaining games come against Towson and Elon, in which the Tribe should be heavily favored (read: two wins). That leaves Villanova, UNH, Hampton, JMU, and Richmond left on the schedule. Of these five games, I think W&M should be favored to beat Villanova and Hampton (read: two more wins). Though neither will be easy.

The remaining three games are likely to be W&M's toughest: UNH, JMU, and Hampton. But assuming that the Tribe needs to go 8-3 to make the playoffs, the team can afford only ONE loss in these games. Theoretically, they can win all three. But they must win 2 of these three, if 8 wins is what it takes. What do you all think? Will 7 wins be enough to qualify for the playoffs this year?

Also, be sure to check out our ever informative preview article for this week's game vs Villanova! We did a Q&A with the Villanova Sports Blog. It's pretty awesome. Check it out here: http://wmsportsblog.com/2015/10/07/previ...villanova/

As always, LET'S GO TRIBE!!!
(This post was last modified: 10-08-2015 05:35 AM by WMSportsBlog.)
10-07-2015 05:44 PM
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wanm65 Online
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RE: WMSB Preview: W&M vs. Villanova & Playoff Odds Talk
W&M has already lost 2 games?
10-07-2015 06:21 PM
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RE: WMSB Preview: W&M vs. Villanova & Playoff Odds Talk
Talley is one of a kind in the CAA.

Great coach.
10-07-2015 06:26 PM
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hktribefan Offline
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WMSB Preview: W&M vs. Villanova & Playoff Odds Talk
The 8 wins was the bar when you play 12 games. 7 (theoretically) when you play 11. 7-4 out of a top conference will get you a good look and often an at large. TBD if 7-4 out of the CAA this year gets in, but it fouls definitely be considered where 7-5 in a 12 game season and you're a wallflower.
10-07-2015 09:18 PM
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TribePride91 Offline
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RE: WMSB Preview: W&M vs. Villanova & Playoff Odds Talk
(10-07-2015 09:18 PM)hktribefan Wrote:  The 8 wins was the bar when you play 12 games. 7 (theoretically) when you play 11. 7-4 out of a top conference will get you a good look and often an at large. TBD if 7-4 out of the CAA this year gets in, but it fouls definitely be considered where 7-5 in a 12 game season and you're a wallflower.

7-4 is not getting in this year. 5-3 probably gets you a tie for 4th or 5th in the league and out. We need to win them all now and win the CAA. That,should be the goal. After last week that seems very unlikely. However, if we can go 4-0 on the 2014 revenge tour, the playoffs become a possibility. Let's start by trying to win Saturday at a place where we never win. Then we will have 3 big home games to see if this team is really good or just middle of the pack 6-5 stuff. Saturday is a must win, but they probably all are.
10-07-2015 10:05 PM
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RE: WMSB Preview: W&M vs. Villanova & Playoff Odds Talk
So the Tribe have to beat Hampton twice?

Anyway, let me do it...:

PLAYOFFS?
(This post was last modified: 10-08-2015 06:12 AM by Paulbintheburg.)
10-08-2015 06:11 AM
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Re: RE: WMSB Preview: W&M vs. Villanova & Playoff Odds Talk
(10-07-2015 06:21 PM)wanm65 Wrote:  W&M has already lost 2 games?

UVA & UD
10-08-2015 06:30 AM
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TribePride91 Offline
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RE: WMSB Preview: W&M vs. Villanova & Playoff Odds Talk
I think the schedule is very difficult for this season and the Delaware game might be the loss that keeps us out. I think the Tribe is capable of winning any of the remaining games if it plays like it did against UVA and Stony Brook. I also think we could lose to anyone left on the schedule if we play as we did on Saturday night. I think 2 more wins are likely which means we would need to win 4 of 5 against(Villanova, NH, JMU, Towson, and UR). Since we lost to 4 of those teams last year, we should not be overconfident or flat in any of those contests. Hard to predict 8-3 or better at this point, but every win keeps us alive for the CAA race and possibly more. The test Saturday is bigger than is being indicated. When was the last time we won at Villanova? I believe it has been a very long time.

- I checked and I had forgotten. It was 2011. 20-16 Tribe. So, it clearly can be done, but Villanova has won 7 of the last 9 in the series overall including games at Zable.
(This post was last modified: 10-08-2015 07:55 AM by TribePride91.)
10-08-2015 07:47 AM
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wmmii Offline
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RE: WMSB Preview: W&M vs. Villanova & Playoff Odds Talk
(10-07-2015 05:44 PM)WMSportsBlog Wrote:  **Post updated to reflect that the Tribe currently has 2 losses**

It's time to get the season back on track. But before we do, let's take a macro/big picture view of the Tribe's current playoff chances. By my calculation, if 7-5 were not good enough to qualify for the FCS playoffs the last two years, then W&M must win at least EIGHT games (8-3 record), and can only afford one more loss over the next 7 games of the season (even still, let's hope that 7-4 might be good enough to qualify this year..fingers crossed).

Two of the remaining games come against Towson and Elon, in which the Tribe should be heavily favored (read: two wins). That leaves Villanova, UNH, Hampton, JMU, and Richmond left on the schedule. Of these five games, I think W&M should be favored to beat Villanova and Hampton (read: two more wins). Though neither will be easy.

The remaining three games are likely to be W&M's toughest: UNH, JMU, and Hampton. But assuming that the Tribe needs to go 8-3 to make the playoffs, the team can afford only ONE loss in these games. Theoretically, they can win all three. But they must win 2 of these three, if 8 wins is what it takes. What do you all think? Will 7 wins be enough to qualify for the playoffs this year?

Also, be sure to check out our ever informative preview article for this week's game vs Villanova! We did a Q&A with the Villanova Sports Blog. It's pretty awesome. Check it out here: http://wmsportsblog.com/2015/10/07/previ...villanova/

As always, LET'S GO TRIBE!!!

Do not think many would favor us to win over Nova based on the rankings and us losing to them 7 out of last 9 years. This does not mean I do not think we can beat them. in fact a loss to Nova would require us to win out the season to make the playoffs probably! Bottom line...Coach needs to "play to win" like we did at UVA.
10-08-2015 08:05 AM
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RE: WMSB Preview: W&M vs. Villanova & Playoff Odds Talk
(10-07-2015 10:05 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  
(10-07-2015 09:18 PM)hktribefan Wrote:  The 8 wins was the bar when you play 12 games. 7 (theoretically) when you play 11. 7-4 out of a top conference will get you a good look and often an at large. TBD if 7-4 out of the CAA this year gets in, but it fouls definitely be considered where 7-5 in a 12 game season and you're a wallflower.

7-4 is not getting in this year. 5-3 probably gets you a tie for 4th or 5th in the league and out. We need to win them all now and win the CAA. That,should be the goal. After last week that seems very unlikely. However, if we can go 4-0 on the 2014 revenge tour, the playoffs become a possibility. Let's start by trying to win Saturday at a place where we never win. Then we will have 3 big home games to see if this team is really good or just middle of the pack 6-5 stuff. Saturday is a must win, but they probably all are.

Around this time every year everyone always says 7-4 won't get us in (or for the past two years 8-4 wouldn't) and yet when the end of the season rolls around a win at Richmond is almost a guaranteed win and in. As it looks right now, 7-4 would be a difficult sell, but just like we lost a game to Delaware we didin't think we would lost, other teams in conference lose games they don't think they will lose. I'd feel a lot safer at 8-3, but in the event we are at 7-4 there will definitely be a chance. I'd rather skip all of the discussion and just go 9-2...
10-08-2015 08:47 AM
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wrnbldg Offline
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RE: WMSB Preview: W&M vs. Villanova & Playoff Odds Talk
[/quote]

Around this time every year everyone always says 7-4 won't get us in (or for the past two years 8-4 wouldn't) and yet when the end of the season rolls around a win at Richmond is almost a guaranteed win and in. As it looks right now, 7-4 would be a difficult sell, but just like we lost a game to Delaware we didin't think we would lost, other teams in conference lose games they don't think they will lose. I'd feel a lot safer at 8-3, but in the event we are at 7-4 there will definitely be a chance. I'd rather skip all of the discussion and just go 9-2...
[/quote]

Of course I want to see us go 9-2, but I also wholeheartedly agree that 7-4 gives us an extremely high chance of getting in. I have also read the past two years the proclamations that 8-4 wouldn't get it done. And in both years 7-5 has us among the last four teams out. If 7-5 is on the bubble, consistently, I believe 7-4 is likely in.

8-3 was always the gold standard to get in when playoffs were at 16 teams. 7-4 is the standard at 24 teams.

Someone will inevitably respond telling me how many teams the CAA will likely have at 7-4 and better and that we can't get that many in. Or someone else will respond breaking down the potential playoff teams from the Big Sky. Every year I read these, and every year 4 or less losses gets the job done.
10-09-2015 08:01 AM
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RE: WMSB Preview: W&M vs. Villanova & Playoff Odds Talk

Around this time every year everyone always says 7-4 won't get us in (or for the past two years 8-4 wouldn't) and yet when the end of the season rolls around a win at Richmond is almost a guaranteed win and in. As it looks right now, 7-4 would be a difficult sell, but just like we lost a game to Delaware we didin't think we would lost, other teams in conference lose games they don't think they will lose. I'd feel a lot safer at 8-3, but in the event we are at 7-4 there will definitely be a chance. I'd rather skip all of the discussion and just go 9-2...
[/quote]

Of course I want to see us go 9-2, but I also wholeheartedly agree that 7-4 gives us an extremely high chance of getting in. I have also read the past two years the proclamations that 8-4 wouldn't get it done. And in both years 7-5 has us among the last four teams out. If 7-5 is on the bubble, consistently, I believe 7-4 is likely in.

8-3 was always the gold standard to get in when playoffs were at 16 teams. 7-4 is the standard at 24 teams.

Someone will inevitably respond telling me how many teams the CAA will likely have at 7-4 and better and that we can't get that many in. Or someone else will respond breaking down the potential playoff teams from the Big Sky. Every year I read these, and every year 4 or less losses gets the job done.
[/quote]
With JMU, UR, Villanova and NH still yet to be played, going 5-2 the rest of the way will be a challenge anyway. The conference record is relevant at the playoff selection time in addition to overall record. The CAA hasn't gotten more than 4 teams in to the playoffs under the 24 team format. So, it would seem that finishing in the top 4 is the first requirement. With Albany, RI, and Elon in the league, 5-3 might not get be enough for the top 4. With each win against the 4 teams that beat us last year, we improve our position. Wins against Towson or Elon will likely just keep pace with the other top teams. Too early to worry about where we are, we just need to win this week which historically has been a tall order.
10-09-2015 09:08 AM
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wanm65 Online
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RE: WMSB Preview: W&M vs. Villanova & Playoff Odds Talk
Last years 4 CAA playoff teams had 3 or fewer losses.
10-09-2015 09:20 AM
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RE: WMSB Preview: W&M vs. Villanova & Playoff Odds Talk
(10-09-2015 09:20 AM)wanm65 Wrote:  Last years 4 CAA playoff teams had 3 or fewer losses.

And Richmond had 4 losses and made it, and we had 5 losses and were reported as being one of the last 4 out. Same thing the year before.

The question on the table is where the line is, not what "most" teams making the playoffs from the CAA have.
10-09-2015 11:01 AM
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RE: WMSB Preview: W&M vs. Villanova & Playoff Odds Talk
My philosophy is one game at a time. We take care of Villanova on Saturday, then turn to New Hampshire. I believe this team can win the remaining games on their schedule, even JMU. They are talented in each area and can go two deep pretty comfortably (especially when the our injured players get cleared).

I am not one calling for reckless play calling or trick/gadget plays throughout the game, but I do know that people, not just players respond better when they know their boss, in this case coach believes in them. Words matter, but actions matter more.

The first three games we coached and played with passion and energy. The game plan fed that in my opinion. We pulled back, played more reserved and the play resembled that at UD.

Villanova is going to put up points on us Saturday, history will tell us that they will put up points all 4 quarters. We must have our feet on the throttle all 60 minutes on both sides of the ball. I feel good about Saturday! Go Tribe!!
10-09-2015 11:57 AM
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RE: WMSB Preview: W&M vs. Villanova & Playoff Odds Talk
(10-09-2015 11:01 AM)wrnbldg Wrote:  
(10-09-2015 09:20 AM)wanm65 Wrote:  Last years 4 CAA playoff teams had 3 or fewer losses.

And Richmond had 4 losses and made it, and we had 5 losses and were reported as being one of the last 4 out. Same thing the year before.

The question on the table is where the line is, not what "most" teams making the playoffs from the CAA have.

Pure speculaion 03-hissyfit
10-09-2015 12:00 PM
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RE: WMSB Preview: W&M vs. Villanova & Playoff Odds Talk
(10-09-2015 09:08 AM)TribePride91 Wrote:  
(10-09-2015 08:01 AM)wrnbldg Wrote:  

Around this time every year everyone always says 7-4 won't get us in (or for the past two years 8-4 wouldn't) and yet when the end of the season rolls around a win at Richmond is almost a guaranteed win and in. As it looks right now, 7-4 would be a difficult sell, but just like we lost a game to Delaware we didin't think we would lost, other teams in conference lose games they don't think they will lose. I'd feel a lot safer at 8-3, but in the event we are at 7-4 there will definitely be a chance. I'd rather skip all of the discussion and just go 9-2...

Of course I want to see us go 9-2, but I also wholeheartedly agree that 7-4 gives us an extremely high chance of getting in. I have also read the past two years the proclamations that 8-4 wouldn't get it done. And in both years 7-5 has us among the last four teams out. If 7-5 is on the bubble, consistently, I believe 7-4 is likely in.

8-3 was always the gold standard to get in when playoffs were at 16 teams. 7-4 is the standard at 24 teams.

Someone will inevitably respond telling me how many teams the CAA will likely have at 7-4 and better and that we can't get that many in. Or someone else will respond breaking down the potential playoff teams from the Big Sky. Every year I read these, and every year 4 or less losses gets the job done.
[/quote]
With JMU, UR, Villanova and NH still yet to be played, going 5-2 the rest of the way will be a challenge anyway. The conference record is relevant at the playoff selection time in addition to overall record. The CAA hasn't gotten more than 4 teams in to the playoffs under the 24 team format. So, it would seem that finishing in the top 4 is the first requirement. With Albany, RI, and Elon in the league, 5-3 might not get be enough for the top 4. With each win against the 4 teams that beat us last year, we improve our position. Wins against Towson or Elon will likely just keep pace with the other top teams. Too early to worry about where we are, we just need to win this week which historically has been a tall order.
[/quote]

Simplifying all this, we have to be 5-3 in CAA to get in.
10-09-2015 12:10 PM
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RE: WMSB Preview: W&M vs. Villanova & Playoff Odds Talk
Maybe I am in the minority, but I think 7-4 gets W&M in. 7-4 likely means 2 wins over the following teams: Nova, JMU (doubtful), New Hampshire, & Richmond. Throw in the Stony Brook win and that will be 3 quality wins with 1 so-so loss in Delaware.

With the expanded playoffs, I would be surprised if W&M didn't get in at 7-4. Remember last year that W&M could have played there way in with a win against Richmond, and last year they didn't have 1 good win prior to the Richmond shitshow.
10-09-2015 09:50 PM
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