(09-15-2015 07:26 AM)runamuck Wrote:  I dont really see any sbc wins in that group of games with the exception of maybe u-laf knocking off the zips.

If that is the case, then it's one of three scenarios:

1. You vastly underestimate the Bobcats.
2. You vastly OVERestimate USM
or
3. You've been a Bobcat fan for a long time, and are just waiting for the heartbreak.

(09-15-2015 07:26 AM)runamuck Wrote:  

(09-15-2015 12:07 AM)FoUTASportscaster Wrote:  I would say the must win games are against "inferior" or "equal" opponents. No one would hold it against South Alabama for losing to a solid San Diego State team, but losing to a SWAC school would be a disaster.

Teams that SBC needs to beat
Every FCS game (not counting this one in the top 10)
UNCC (sorry Georgia St, would have helped in so many ways)
Southern Miss @ Texas State
UTEP @ NMSU
Old Dominion vs App
Akron @ ULL
Toledo vs stAte
Wyoming @ App
ULL @ La Tech
ULM @ Tulsa
Hawaii vs ULM

I dont really see any sbc wins in that group of games with the exception of maybe u-laf knocking off the zips.

I dont think it would make sports center if we won them all. Most look like coin flips or one touch underdogs.

I don't see any reason why we couldn't win 8 of those games.

I'll sub in Wofford @ Idaho for the GA St. miscue here

SBC should be favored by a TD:

Wofford @ Idaho
Wyoming @ App (if App beats ODU)

SBC slightly favored:

Southern Miss @ Texas State (-2.5)
Arkon @ ULL
Hawaii vs ULM

Non-SBC slightly favored:

UTEP @ NMSU (+2)
Old Dominion vs App
Toledo vs stAte
ULL @ La Tech
ULM @ Tulsa

I think we only win six of these unfortunately.

At this point none of those games will get you past CUSA without P5 wins. Past the Mac maybe.

I don't think quality of wins matters in the payout calculation.

(09-15-2015 10:14 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  I'll sub in Wofford @ Idaho for the GA St. miscue here

SBC should be favored by a TD:

Wofford @ Idaho
Wyoming @ App (if App beats ODU)

SBC slightly favored:

Southern Miss @ Texas State (-2.5)
Arkon @ ULL
Hawaii vs ULM

Non-SBC slightly favored:

UTEP @ NMSU (+2)
Old Dominion vs App
Toledo vs stAte
ULL @ La Tech
ULM @ Tulsa

I think we only win six of these unfortunately.

I think UL should be favored over Akron and you guys should be favored over both Wyoming and ODU.

ULL will be favored, but I think ODU will be favored by 1 or 2 since the game is there.

(09-15-2015 08:43 AM)TheRevSWT Wrote:  

(09-15-2015 07:26 AM)runamuck Wrote:  I dont really see any sbc wins in that group of games with the exception of maybe u-laf knocking off the zips.

If that is the case, then it's one of three scenarios:

1. You vastly underestimate the Bobcats.
2. You vastly OVERestimate USM
or
3. You've been a Bobcat fan for a long time, and are just waiting for the heartbreak.

I do like the bobcats but I watched the usm game and they didnt look too bad and txst seems like that sleeping giant that just stumbles enough to not get the win. as for the rest of those games, I just dont see any of our guys being the clear favorite. as bad as utep looked against tech, they are probably still better than nmsu and I dont see ulm beating tulsa or hawaii or wyoming as the underdog against app. I hope our guys pick up some wins in these games, just not counting on it.

Oregon

(09-15-2015 11:13 AM)AlwaysSunny Wrote:  At this point none of those games will get you past CUSA without P5 wins. Past the Mac maybe.

I think MAC is above CUSA.

And my focus right now is to make sure we have NO FCS losses. Once that is accomplished, I want to keep a winning record against G5.

If we do those two things, we can then focus on P5 wins (to me). Until we get that accomplished, I think we're putting the cart in front of the horse.

I understand that ODU id 2-0 at this point, but I will be surprised and VERY disappointed (complete homer here) if App doesn't win that game. Wyoming is looking terrible and I can't see anybody predicting an App loss in that one at this point.

(09-17-2015 02:04 PM)Yosef84 Wrote:  I understand that ODU id 2-0 at this point, but I will be surprised and VERY disappointed (complete homer here) if App doesn't win that game. Wyoming is looking terrible and I can't see anybody predicting an App loss in that one at this point.

Agree, i anticipate a 13+ point win over ODU and a 25+ point win over Wyoming. I believe Wyoming lost by 14 to an average FCS team in North Dakota. ODU has only beaten Norfolk State and barely beat Eastern Michigan, whose only win is against Wyoming.

comments by the players and coaches after the Clemson game were really positive, they admit Clemson was the better team, and it was a long shot to win that game, but they seem to be alittle bit pissed that they lost by 31, they don't feel Clemson was better than them by that large of a margin. I think, with a week to prepare, and after the Clemson loss, they are going to be on a mission when they play ODU. I think they will play really well against ODU.

(09-17-2015 02:43 PM)moehler Wrote:  comments by the players and coaches after the Clemson game were really positive, they admit Clemson was the better team, and it was a long shot to win that game, but they seem to be alittle bit pissed that they lost by 31, they don't feel Clemson was better than them by that large of a margin. I think, with a week to prepare, and after the Clemson loss, they are going to be on a mission when they play ODU. I think they will play really well against ODU.

I like that they do seem upset and have a "bad taste in their mouth" after that loss. There were plenty of positives but the 2nd quarter collapse was disappointing. If they were just brushing it off as "they're a P5 team", I'm be worried. That game just might be the spring board they needed to launch into the rest of the season and remain focused.

totally agree, especially about the brushing it off as they're a P5 team, 5 years ago that's exactly what they would have done, now, they are starting to believe they have the depth and talent to atleast be able to give the top teams a respectable game, still got a long, long way to go, but atleast things seem to be moving in the right direction. Now, if we could only get rid of that dam track!!

(09-15-2015 07:57 AM)Ole Sleepy Wrote:  

(09-15-2015 07:26 AM)runamuck Wrote:  

(09-15-2015 12:07 AM)FoUTASportscaster Wrote:  I would say the must win games are against "inferior" or "equal" opponents. No one would hold it against South Alabama for losing to a solid San Diego State team, but losing to a SWAC school would be a disaster.

Teams that SBC needs to beat
Every FCS game (not counting this one in the top 10)
UNCC (sorry Georgia St, would have helped in so many ways)
Southern Miss @ Texas State
UTEP @ NMSU
Old Dominion vs App
Akron @ ULL
Toledo vs stAte
Wyoming @ App
ULL @ La Tech
ULM @ Tulsa
Hawaii vs ULM

I dont really see any sbc wins in that group of games with the exception of maybe u-laf knocking off the zips.

...really? You being serious? Oh ye of little faith.

App beats Wyoming and ODU, ULM beats Hawaii, no reason why Texas State can't beat USM...ULL/LT and ULM/Tulsa will be, ahem, should be close and winnable games.

I think it's a great OOC G5 slate with tons of games we should win.

ULL/LT will be a brutal grudge match this year. The Cajuns will be out to prove that last year's game was a fluke, while the Bulldogs will be out to prove it wasn't. I expect a close game, albeit one with lots of scoring.

(09-17-2015 04:29 PM)moehler Wrote:  totally agree, especially about the brushing it off as they're a P5 team, 5 years ago that's exactly what they would have done, now, they are starting to believe they have the depth and talent to atleast be able to give the top teams a respectable game, still got a long, long way to go, but atleast things seem to be moving in the right direction. Now, if we could only get rid of that dam track!!

I watched the game, first half and was impressed with the App D. Your linebackers are really good as well as your front 4.

(09-17-2015 07:21 PM)rbostic218 Wrote:  

(09-17-2015 04:29 PM)moehler Wrote:  totally agree, especially about the brushing it off as they're a P5 team, 5 years ago that's exactly what they would have done, now, they are starting to believe they have the depth and talent to atleast be able to give the top teams a respectable game, still got a long, long way to go, but atleast things seem to be moving in the right direction. Now, if we could only get rid of that dam track!!

I watched the game, first half and was impressed with the App D. Your linebackers are really good as well as your front 4.

I watched the first part of the second and I agree. That's going to be a tough game for us.

(09-17-2015 05:25 PM)BRtransplant Wrote:  

(09-15-2015 07:57 AM)Ole Sleepy Wrote:  

(09-15-2015 07:26 AM)runamuck Wrote:  

(09-15-2015 12:07 AM)FoUTASportscaster Wrote:  I would say the must win games are against "inferior" or "equal" opponents. No one would hold it against South Alabama for losing to a solid San Diego State team, but losing to a SWAC school would be a disaster.

Teams that SBC needs to beat
Every FCS game (not counting this one in the top 10)
UNCC (sorry Georgia St, would have helped in so many ways)
Southern Miss @ Texas State
UTEP @ NMSU
Old Dominion vs App
Akron @ ULL
Toledo vs stAte
Wyoming @ App
ULL @ La Tech
ULM @ Tulsa
Hawaii vs ULM

I dont really see any sbc wins in that group of games with the exception of maybe u-laf knocking off the zips.

...really? You being serious? Oh ye of little faith.

App beats Wyoming and ODU, ULM beats Hawaii, no reason why Texas State can't beat USM...ULL/LT and ULM/Tulsa will be, ahem, should be close and winnable games.

I think it's a great OOC G5 slate with tons of games we should win.

ULL/LT will be a brutal grudge match this year. The Cajuns will be out to prove that last year's game was a fluke, while the Bulldogs will be out to prove it wasn't. I expect a close game, albeit one with lots of scoring.

I agree with the thought that this one will have lots of points scored. Hopefully our "new" defense has learned enough and made positive strides before this matchup. Dixon and McGuire could both put up big numbers in this one. Should be fun (and frustrating) to watch......from both sides!