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Time, Monetary Disparity, Pressure, and No Brokering Equals Unexpected Consequences
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #281
RE: Time, Monetary Disparity, Pressure, and No Brokering Equals Unexpected Consequences
(01-03-2022 08:06 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-03-2022 07:48 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(12-27-2021 08:54 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I believe the ACC is now at a crossroads and is deliberating over a plate full of reality. The are staring at a 40 million dollar deficit in media revenue alone compared to the SEC's new contract, and know that when the Big Ten renews, likely next year, that a similar deficit will exist there. They just finished a woeful football season and only retiring Coach K is having a solid basketball season. In other words they are getting a blast of what media revenue deficits can do.

Now they've issued a survey asking alumni and season ticket holders how they feel about the ACC and how they feel about other conferences. Football bell cow Clemson has lost its AD, DC, & OC and Dabo has been scoping out NFL options.

I'd say the clock is ticking on the ACC and since they are under ESPN's thumb I could see 7 of them joining the SEC with perhaps Kansas, and the rest helping to create a P3 with B12 and PAC 12 remnants. I could also see the 9 AAU schools of the PAC joining Notre Dame in the Big 10.

California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah

Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Wisconsin

Indiana, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers



SEC:

Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina

Alabama, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M


New Big 12:

Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon State, San Diego State*, Texas Tech, Washington State

Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Central Florida, Georgia Tech, Miami, South Florida*, Tulane*, Wake Forest

*Army, Navy, and Air Force could replace these 3.


I'm feeling a bit more confident that we may work our way to something like this.

Conference Semis and Finals and the 3 conference champs and one at large advance to the CFP.

Been thinking about this for a few days. Started to post a couple of times and just deleted everything.

My premise here is that the ACC would survive in some context. Just as the Big 12 did after the powers destabilized it by leaving. I think ESPN is best served by having a league like the ACC...just not with the entirety of its current membership.

The key cog in all of it is Notre Dame. ESPN and the ACC want them to be full members, but ND hasn't found the sufficient motivation yet. I think one day they will, but it seems debatable as to what exactly will trigger that change and when. I will say though that Notre Dame will have little incentive to remain independent if the SEC or other conferences decide to de-emphasize their role in the NCAA. Whether that's separating the basketball postseason(which would essentially bankrupt the NCAA) or simply setting up a more formal separation, this sort of shift will force ND to look at things a different way because all of a sudden an independent schedule doesn't mean much. If the Big Ten and the SEC depart then who is ND going to spend their time playing? And to what end? A postseason absent the richest and most prominent names in the game? Seems pointless.

That's more of an aside. More specifically, I think ESPN wants to create a suitable home for ND so that they can truly control their rights. The economics of other major moves wouldn't be as significant as finally nailing down ND.

ND wants a national schedule for national exposure. They want to compete for championships and they want to play like-minded schools for the most part. For them, independence is a means to an end. Yes, it is part of their identity, but only because of the advantages it offers. Independence unto itself won't grant them everything they want in a vacuum.

So Notre Dame is in the driver's seat so to speak. Under the current dynamics, they have no motivation to make anything other than an ideal move. That could change in the not too distant future, but for now, they do what they want because they can.

So the primary reason I think the ACC will survive is because there are so many sub-par brands in that league. If those schools didn't occupy large population centers then their TV value would be more akin to the American...only a few ACC schools transcend their home market in any meaningful way.

So I see the ACC as a mirror to the Big 12 in some respect because it's a collection of schools that are capable of competing at a high level, but have less gravitas to really win titles and fans consistently on a broad basis. Those are the things that build a successful athletic program...winning and eyeballs. That's where the money comes from.

The other dynamic here is that I think there will be some competition for the ACC schools that have value. That's where the Big Ten really wants to go...it's the demographic infusion they need.

So to me, the new linchpin is Florida State or Miami. These are once proud programs with some economic struggles and less success than they really want. For example, Miami just went out and got Mario Cristobal from Oregon...a far more successful program over the last 15 years. Miami also stole Clemson's AD and perhaps that demonstrates that Clemson's potential is quite limited. For Florida State's part, they have a jaded fan base that realizes they almost left back in 2011 and are a bit mystified that their administration signed a GOR with the ACC.

These programs are linchpins in part because of their motivation and in part because their departure would doom the whole ACC.

Okay, you told me ND isn't moving anytime soon. Clemson is not as desirable as Clemson thinks. You indicated FSU wants change and stated Miami is upgrading.

Here's what you didn't tell me. Why schools who can earn 76 million by moving won't. And if they do where they will realign, and how can the ACC possibly avoid mass exodus once some of the big brands cash in with B1G or SEC invites? And if someone does head B1G why ESPN would let it happen if they could own them in the SEC?

So who leaves and where do they go and why?

If pressed on the specifics, here's how I would look at it.

Notre Dame is ok with the current ACC format, but if the league blows up then everything changes. How could the league blow up? Florida State and/or Miami have to be snagged somehow. At that point, the ACC is in mortal danger.

Something tells me they could move together as it would be simpler that way and they certainly value their rivalry. The SEC makes the most sense and it's the move that ESPN could negotiate if they really want to alter the status of the ACC...it's all internal at that point. Equally important would be where the other pieces go and why.

We've seen the SBJ float the idea that the Big Ten could just split their rights between FOX and CBS. It wouldn't be a bad move for them, but honestly, I think this sort of leak is more of a trial ballon. We haven't really seen any figures on a deal like that, for one. Secondly, although we can certainly expect these negotiations are ongoing, there's nothing about that arrangement (FOX/CBS combo) that screams anything other than short term financial gain for the Big Ten. They've stated in the past how important it was for them to have placement on ESPN and anyone who follows the media landscape knows there's no reason for that to have changed. So I think it's a threat.

ESPN wants that content for their ever-expanding streaming portfolio. No, they don't need Big Ten games for their ABC or ESPN prime time matchups, but that doesn't mean the games aren't valuable. The Big Ten wants a portion of the current ACC in exchange. If ESPN won't give it to them then they will take their ball and go elsewhere. That means when the ACC does become truly vulnerable then the Big Ten is an existential threat so to speak. They would have rival networks at their back and no influence from ESPN on their decision making. I don't think ESPN is quite ready for that world.

In conjunction with that dynamic, we have the reality that the next big money grab in college sports will come from basketball and a tournament independent of the NCAA. Who has the inside track on broadcasting that tournament because of the equity in the marketplace they've built? CBS. Obviously Turner plays a role there, but it's a small one as it pertains to college conferences. Who would desperately want to crack that nut and be a key figure in the new world of the basketball tournament? ESPN, right?

Now let's think about FOX's role here. They've worked in conjunction with ESPN, but they are a spoiler. They have national sports networks that take away from ESPN's marketshare...a market that is going to become even more important as traditional cable dies out. Secondly, FOX has been a thorn in that they lured the Big Ten away. Well, let's consider for a moment that 2 of FOX's biggest college properties have already been stolen by ESPN. Texas and Oklahoma will soon be in the fold. FOX's investment in the Big 12 is on life support and won't be that significant in the marketplace even if it continues. Their investment in the PAC 12 isn't much better as they don't have the gravitas to buoy an investment in the major Big Ten games. The Big Ten knows this...despite all the wheeling and dealing in recent years, ESPN has made moves to increase the synergy of their portfolio rather than really losing key pieces.

So what's the point? I don't think CBS is so much a bluff for the Big Ten. I think it's a legitimate desire, but I also think sharing the Big Ten with CBS is preferable for ESPN as opposed to sharing the Big Ten with FOX as they currently do.

CBS and ESPN could form an incredible partnership on an independent basketball tournament, one that would likely never materialize with FOX. It's also one that could work just fine with Turner, as it currently does, but CBS and ESPN would form a better synergy. Even if ESPN becomes a 3rd partner with CBS and Turner, that's still a significant play in the marketplace.

As far as college football goes, CBS already works pretty well with ESPN in that they share the SEC. CBS doesn't want to lose out on that product completely. Having Big Ten games would be significant, and having their broadcast partner promoted on ESPN would be the cherry on top...it's a dynamic they're already used to.

For the Big Ten's part, I think they still want to be with ESPN in part, but they will use their leverage to gain long term stability rather than short term financial gains. If that plan fails then a FOX/CBS combo is not a bad deal for them, just not their best scenario.

For ESPN's part, stealing more content from FOX would be a huge get and increase their overall marketshare. They have to consider what it would take to squeeze FOX out of the equation for all intents and purposes.

So I go back to something we've discussed at length before, the desire of the Big Ten to raid the ACC and the theory that ESPN would aid them in order to keep their content in house.

If Florida State and Miami make a break for the SEC then the Big Ten stands to gain if they take a few as well. The Big 12 could clean up some leftovers or perhaps an ACC survives and recruits a few current G5s.

I could see the SEC being interested in that combo not simply because it would lock down Florida, but because both programs still have some national cachet. If nothing else, their inclusion bumps up the watchability of 2nd tier games tremendously. If that plays out then I think UNC and Duke would also come aboard. Their inclusion would bump up the basketball value in a new market(a more valuable college basketball season as a whole). For the SEC, that's a very solid 20 and it doesn't stretch geography too much.

Would they stop there? Well, Virginia Tech and Clemson make a lot of sense too, but only if the league is balanced out a little more out West. What I mean is that the core of the ACC has already been gutted. How many of these schools are worth 76.5 million a year? Not very many, but in conjunction with one another, there's ample eyeballs to be had if you access new markets.

I'm going to get crazy here and say that moving from 20 to 24 isn't worth it unless you grow the footprint. Kansas makes sense, but you need an even bigger player than that. Notre Dame would make a big splash by themselves, but I argue they would prefer something a little more expansive.

It hasn't really been suggested, but beyond a handful of ACC schools, the only additions that make sense are in the PAC 12. The Big Ten would have something to say about that, but I don't see the PAC 12 moving en masse anywhere. The reason is because their current overall weakness has been brought about by the consensus position. Nonetheless, there are defectors from that perspective. Yes, they did get rid of Larry Scott and replace him with a more reasonably minded, sports focused commissioner, but I think the damage has been done. More relevant is that the fact that the West Coast isn't set up to economically support a whole league at the Power 5 level. Now does that reality mean that every single school currently in the PAC will go down with the ship without a fight? I don't see it because some of those schools have genuinely different aspirations.

Now, one might say that it would make more sense for a collection of the PAC 12, perhaps even all of them to move to the Big Ten. It does make sense, but some PAC schools seem to desire something more akin to what Texas and Oklahoma wanted...prestige, money, and all the trappings of success.

I think USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Utah form a nice nucleus that isn't too culturally estranged.

Add the aforementioned Virginia Tech and Clemson.

Now you have a very interesting home for Notre Dame. Last one in could be Kansas although it doesn't much matter at that point.

I see the Big Ten looking at certain ACC properties and finishing out with a few like-minded PAC schools.

How crazy am I?
01-04-2022 11:06 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #282
RE: Time, Monetary Disparity, Pressure, and No Brokering Equals Unexpected Consequences
(01-04-2022 11:06 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(01-03-2022 08:06 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-03-2022 07:48 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(12-27-2021 08:54 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I believe the ACC is now at a crossroads and is deliberating over a plate full of reality. The are staring at a 40 million dollar deficit in media revenue alone compared to the SEC's new contract, and know that when the Big Ten renews, likely next year, that a similar deficit will exist there. They just finished a woeful football season and only retiring Coach K is having a solid basketball season. In other words they are getting a blast of what media revenue deficits can do.

Now they've issued a survey asking alumni and season ticket holders how they feel about the ACC and how they feel about other conferences. Football bell cow Clemson has lost its AD, DC, & OC and Dabo has been scoping out NFL options.

I'd say the clock is ticking on the ACC and since they are under ESPN's thumb I could see 7 of them joining the SEC with perhaps Kansas, and the rest helping to create a P3 with B12 and PAC 12 remnants. I could also see the 9 AAU schools of the PAC joining Notre Dame in the Big 10.

California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah

Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Wisconsin

Indiana, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers



SEC:

Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina

Alabama, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M


New Big 12:

Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon State, San Diego State*, Texas Tech, Washington State

Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Central Florida, Georgia Tech, Miami, South Florida*, Tulane*, Wake Forest

*Army, Navy, and Air Force could replace these 3.


I'm feeling a bit more confident that we may work our way to something like this.

Conference Semis and Finals and the 3 conference champs and one at large advance to the CFP.

Been thinking about this for a few days. Started to post a couple of times and just deleted everything.

My premise here is that the ACC would survive in some context. Just as the Big 12 did after the powers destabilized it by leaving. I think ESPN is best served by having a league like the ACC...just not with the entirety of its current membership.

The key cog in all of it is Notre Dame. ESPN and the ACC want them to be full members, but ND hasn't found the sufficient motivation yet. I think one day they will, but it seems debatable as to what exactly will trigger that change and when. I will say though that Notre Dame will have little incentive to remain independent if the SEC or other conferences decide to de-emphasize their role in the NCAA. Whether that's separating the basketball postseason(which would essentially bankrupt the NCAA) or simply setting up a more formal separation, this sort of shift will force ND to look at things a different way because all of a sudden an independent schedule doesn't mean much. If the Big Ten and the SEC depart then who is ND going to spend their time playing? And to what end? A postseason absent the richest and most prominent names in the game? Seems pointless.

That's more of an aside. More specifically, I think ESPN wants to create a suitable home for ND so that they can truly control their rights. The economics of other major moves wouldn't be as significant as finally nailing down ND.

ND wants a national schedule for national exposure. They want to compete for championships and they want to play like-minded schools for the most part. For them, independence is a means to an end. Yes, it is part of their identity, but only because of the advantages it offers. Independence unto itself won't grant them everything they want in a vacuum.

So Notre Dame is in the driver's seat so to speak. Under the current dynamics, they have no motivation to make anything other than an ideal move. That could change in the not too distant future, but for now, they do what they want because they can.

So the primary reason I think the ACC will survive is because there are so many sub-par brands in that league. If those schools didn't occupy large population centers then their TV value would be more akin to the American...only a few ACC schools transcend their home market in any meaningful way.

So I see the ACC as a mirror to the Big 12 in some respect because it's a collection of schools that are capable of competing at a high level, but have less gravitas to really win titles and fans consistently on a broad basis. Those are the things that build a successful athletic program...winning and eyeballs. That's where the money comes from.

The other dynamic here is that I think there will be some competition for the ACC schools that have value. That's where the Big Ten really wants to go...it's the demographic infusion they need.

So to me, the new linchpin is Florida State or Miami. These are once proud programs with some economic struggles and less success than they really want. For example, Miami just went out and got Mario Cristobal from Oregon...a far more successful program over the last 15 years. Miami also stole Clemson's AD and perhaps that demonstrates that Clemson's potential is quite limited. For Florida State's part, they have a jaded fan base that realizes they almost left back in 2011 and are a bit mystified that their administration signed a GOR with the ACC.

These programs are linchpins in part because of their motivation and in part because their departure would doom the whole ACC.

Okay, you told me ND isn't moving anytime soon. Clemson is not as desirable as Clemson thinks. You indicated FSU wants change and stated Miami is upgrading.

Here's what you didn't tell me. Why schools who can earn 76 million by moving won't. And if they do where they will realign, and how can the ACC possibly avoid mass exodus once some of the big brands cash in with B1G or SEC invites? And if someone does head B1G why ESPN would let it happen if they could own them in the SEC?

So who leaves and where do they go and why?

If pressed on the specifics, here's how I would look at it.

Notre Dame is ok with the current ACC format, but if the league blows up then everything changes. How could the league blow up? Florida State and/or Miami have to be snagged somehow. At that point, the ACC is in mortal danger.

Something tells me they could move together as it would be simpler that way and they certainly value their rivalry. The SEC makes the most sense and it's the move that ESPN could negotiate if they really want to alter the status of the ACC...it's all internal at that point. Equally important would be where the other pieces go and why.

We've seen the SBJ float the idea that the Big Ten could just split their rights between FOX and CBS. It wouldn't be a bad move for them, but honestly, I think this sort of leak is more of a trial ballon. We haven't really seen any figures on a deal like that, for one. Secondly, although we can certainly expect these negotiations are ongoing, there's nothing about that arrangement (FOX/CBS combo) that screams anything other than short term financial gain for the Big Ten. They've stated in the past how important it was for them to have placement on ESPN and anyone who follows the media landscape knows there's no reason for that to have changed. So I think it's a threat.

ESPN wants that content for their ever-expanding streaming portfolio. No, they don't need Big Ten games for their ABC or ESPN prime time matchups, but that doesn't mean the games aren't valuable. The Big Ten wants a portion of the current ACC in exchange. If ESPN won't give it to them then they will take their ball and go elsewhere. That means when the ACC does become truly vulnerable then the Big Ten is an existential threat so to speak. They would have rival networks at their back and no influence from ESPN on their decision making. I don't think ESPN is quite ready for that world.

In conjunction with that dynamic, we have the reality that the next big money grab in college sports will come from basketball and a tournament independent of the NCAA. Who has the inside track on broadcasting that tournament because of the equity in the marketplace they've built? CBS. Obviously Turner plays a role there, but it's a small one as it pertains to college conferences. Who would desperately want to crack that nut and be a key figure in the new world of the basketball tournament? ESPN, right?

Now let's think about FOX's role here. They've worked in conjunction with ESPN, but they are a spoiler. They have national sports networks that take away from ESPN's marketshare...a market that is going to become even more important as traditional cable dies out. Secondly, FOX has been a thorn in that they lured the Big Ten away. Well, let's consider for a moment that 2 of FOX's biggest college properties have already been stolen by ESPN. Texas and Oklahoma will soon be in the fold. FOX's investment in the Big 12 is on life support and won't be that significant in the marketplace even if it continues. Their investment in the PAC 12 isn't much better as they don't have the gravitas to buoy an investment in the major Big Ten games. The Big Ten knows this...despite all the wheeling and dealing in recent years, ESPN has made moves to increase the synergy of their portfolio rather than really losing key pieces.

So what's the point? I don't think CBS is so much a bluff for the Big Ten. I think it's a legitimate desire, but I also think sharing the Big Ten with CBS is preferable for ESPN as opposed to sharing the Big Ten with FOX as they currently do.

CBS and ESPN could form an incredible partnership on an independent basketball tournament, one that would likely never materialize with FOX. It's also one that could work just fine with Turner, as it currently does, but CBS and ESPN would form a better synergy. Even if ESPN becomes a 3rd partner with CBS and Turner, that's still a significant play in the marketplace.

As far as college football goes, CBS already works pretty well with ESPN in that they share the SEC. CBS doesn't want to lose out on that product completely. Having Big Ten games would be significant, and having their broadcast partner promoted on ESPN would be the cherry on top...it's a dynamic they're already used to.

For the Big Ten's part, I think they still want to be with ESPN in part, but they will use their leverage to gain long term stability rather than short term financial gains. If that plan fails then a FOX/CBS combo is not a bad deal for them, just not their best scenario.

For ESPN's part, stealing more content from FOX would be a huge get and increase their overall marketshare. They have to consider what it would take to squeeze FOX out of the equation for all intents and purposes.

So I go back to something we've discussed at length before, the desire of the Big Ten to raid the ACC and the theory that ESPN would aid them in order to keep their content in house.

If Florida State and Miami make a break for the SEC then the Big Ten stands to gain if they take a few as well. The Big 12 could clean up some leftovers or perhaps an ACC survives and recruits a few current G5s.

I could see the SEC being interested in that combo not simply because it would lock down Florida, but because both programs still have some national cachet. If nothing else, their inclusion bumps up the watchability of 2nd tier games tremendously. If that plays out then I think UNC and Duke would also come aboard. Their inclusion would bump up the basketball value in a new market(a more valuable college basketball season as a whole). For the SEC, that's a very solid 20 and it doesn't stretch geography too much.

Would they stop there? Well, Virginia Tech and Clemson make a lot of sense too, but only if the league is balanced out a little more out West. What I mean is that the core of the ACC has already been gutted. How many of these schools are worth 76.5 million a year? Not very many, but in conjunction with one another, there's ample eyeballs to be had if you access new markets.

I'm going to get crazy here and say that moving from 20 to 24 isn't worth it unless you grow the footprint. Kansas makes sense, but you need an even bigger player than that. Notre Dame would make a big splash by themselves, but I argue they would prefer something a little more expansive.

It hasn't really been suggested, but beyond a handful of ACC schools, the only additions that make sense are in the PAC 12. The Big Ten would have something to say about that, but I don't see the PAC 12 moving en masse anywhere. The reason is because their current overall weakness has been brought about by the consensus position. Nonetheless, there are defectors from that perspective. Yes, they did get rid of Larry Scott and replace him with a more reasonably minded, sports focused commissioner, but I think the damage has been done. More relevant is that the fact that the West Coast isn't set up to economically support a whole league at the Power 5 level. Now does that reality mean that every single school currently in the PAC will go down with the ship without a fight? I don't see it because some of those schools have genuinely different aspirations.

Now, one might say that it would make more sense for a collection of the PAC 12, perhaps even all of them to move to the Big Ten. It does make sense, but some PAC schools seem to desire something more akin to what Texas and Oklahoma wanted...prestige, money, and all the trappings of success.

I think USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Utah form a nice nucleus that isn't too culturally estranged.

Add the aforementioned Virginia Tech and Clemson.

Now you have a very interesting home for Notre Dame. Last one in could be Kansas although it doesn't much matter at that point.

I see the Big Ten looking at certain ACC properties and finishing out with a few like-minded PAC schools.

How crazy am I?

So in a move to 20 you would be fine with UNC, Duke, Miami, and FSU?
In a move to 24 you would add Kansas, Clemson, Va Tech, and who?
01-05-2022 06:34 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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Posts: 5,154
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Post: #283
RE: Time, Monetary Disparity, Pressure, and No Brokering Equals Unexpected Consequences
(01-05-2022 06:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-04-2022 11:06 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(01-03-2022 08:06 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-03-2022 07:48 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(12-27-2021 08:54 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I believe the ACC is now at a crossroads and is deliberating over a plate full of reality. The are staring at a 40 million dollar deficit in media revenue alone compared to the SEC's new contract, and know that when the Big Ten renews, likely next year, that a similar deficit will exist there. They just finished a woeful football season and only retiring Coach K is having a solid basketball season. In other words they are getting a blast of what media revenue deficits can do.

Now they've issued a survey asking alumni and season ticket holders how they feel about the ACC and how they feel about other conferences. Football bell cow Clemson has lost its AD, DC, & OC and Dabo has been scoping out NFL options.

I'd say the clock is ticking on the ACC and since they are under ESPN's thumb I could see 7 of them joining the SEC with perhaps Kansas, and the rest helping to create a P3 with B12 and PAC 12 remnants. I could also see the 9 AAU schools of the PAC joining Notre Dame in the Big 10.

California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah

Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Wisconsin

Indiana, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers



SEC:

Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina

Alabama, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M


New Big 12:

Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon State, San Diego State*, Texas Tech, Washington State

Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Central Florida, Georgia Tech, Miami, South Florida*, Tulane*, Wake Forest

*Army, Navy, and Air Force could replace these 3.


I'm feeling a bit more confident that we may work our way to something like this.

Conference Semis and Finals and the 3 conference champs and one at large advance to the CFP.

Been thinking about this for a few days. Started to post a couple of times and just deleted everything.

My premise here is that the ACC would survive in some context. Just as the Big 12 did after the powers destabilized it by leaving. I think ESPN is best served by having a league like the ACC...just not with the entirety of its current membership.

The key cog in all of it is Notre Dame. ESPN and the ACC want them to be full members, but ND hasn't found the sufficient motivation yet. I think one day they will, but it seems debatable as to what exactly will trigger that change and when. I will say though that Notre Dame will have little incentive to remain independent if the SEC or other conferences decide to de-emphasize their role in the NCAA. Whether that's separating the basketball postseason(which would essentially bankrupt the NCAA) or simply setting up a more formal separation, this sort of shift will force ND to look at things a different way because all of a sudden an independent schedule doesn't mean much. If the Big Ten and the SEC depart then who is ND going to spend their time playing? And to what end? A postseason absent the richest and most prominent names in the game? Seems pointless.

That's more of an aside. More specifically, I think ESPN wants to create a suitable home for ND so that they can truly control their rights. The economics of other major moves wouldn't be as significant as finally nailing down ND.

ND wants a national schedule for national exposure. They want to compete for championships and they want to play like-minded schools for the most part. For them, independence is a means to an end. Yes, it is part of their identity, but only because of the advantages it offers. Independence unto itself won't grant them everything they want in a vacuum.

So Notre Dame is in the driver's seat so to speak. Under the current dynamics, they have no motivation to make anything other than an ideal move. That could change in the not too distant future, but for now, they do what they want because they can.

So the primary reason I think the ACC will survive is because there are so many sub-par brands in that league. If those schools didn't occupy large population centers then their TV value would be more akin to the American...only a few ACC schools transcend their home market in any meaningful way.

So I see the ACC as a mirror to the Big 12 in some respect because it's a collection of schools that are capable of competing at a high level, but have less gravitas to really win titles and fans consistently on a broad basis. Those are the things that build a successful athletic program...winning and eyeballs. That's where the money comes from.

The other dynamic here is that I think there will be some competition for the ACC schools that have value. That's where the Big Ten really wants to go...it's the demographic infusion they need.

So to me, the new linchpin is Florida State or Miami. These are once proud programs with some economic struggles and less success than they really want. For example, Miami just went out and got Mario Cristobal from Oregon...a far more successful program over the last 15 years. Miami also stole Clemson's AD and perhaps that demonstrates that Clemson's potential is quite limited. For Florida State's part, they have a jaded fan base that realizes they almost left back in 2011 and are a bit mystified that their administration signed a GOR with the ACC.

These programs are linchpins in part because of their motivation and in part because their departure would doom the whole ACC.

Okay, you told me ND isn't moving anytime soon. Clemson is not as desirable as Clemson thinks. You indicated FSU wants change and stated Miami is upgrading.

Here's what you didn't tell me. Why schools who can earn 76 million by moving won't. And if they do where they will realign, and how can the ACC possibly avoid mass exodus once some of the big brands cash in with B1G or SEC invites? And if someone does head B1G why ESPN would let it happen if they could own them in the SEC?

So who leaves and where do they go and why?

If pressed on the specifics, here's how I would look at it.

Notre Dame is ok with the current ACC format, but if the league blows up then everything changes. How could the league blow up? Florida State and/or Miami have to be snagged somehow. At that point, the ACC is in mortal danger.

Something tells me they could move together as it would be simpler that way and they certainly value their rivalry. The SEC makes the most sense and it's the move that ESPN could negotiate if they really want to alter the status of the ACC...it's all internal at that point. Equally important would be where the other pieces go and why.

We've seen the SBJ float the idea that the Big Ten could just split their rights between FOX and CBS. It wouldn't be a bad move for them, but honestly, I think this sort of leak is more of a trial ballon. We haven't really seen any figures on a deal like that, for one. Secondly, although we can certainly expect these negotiations are ongoing, there's nothing about that arrangement (FOX/CBS combo) that screams anything other than short term financial gain for the Big Ten. They've stated in the past how important it was for them to have placement on ESPN and anyone who follows the media landscape knows there's no reason for that to have changed. So I think it's a threat.

ESPN wants that content for their ever-expanding streaming portfolio. No, they don't need Big Ten games for their ABC or ESPN prime time matchups, but that doesn't mean the games aren't valuable. The Big Ten wants a portion of the current ACC in exchange. If ESPN won't give it to them then they will take their ball and go elsewhere. That means when the ACC does become truly vulnerable then the Big Ten is an existential threat so to speak. They would have rival networks at their back and no influence from ESPN on their decision making. I don't think ESPN is quite ready for that world.

In conjunction with that dynamic, we have the reality that the next big money grab in college sports will come from basketball and a tournament independent of the NCAA. Who has the inside track on broadcasting that tournament because of the equity in the marketplace they've built? CBS. Obviously Turner plays a role there, but it's a small one as it pertains to college conferences. Who would desperately want to crack that nut and be a key figure in the new world of the basketball tournament? ESPN, right?

Now let's think about FOX's role here. They've worked in conjunction with ESPN, but they are a spoiler. They have national sports networks that take away from ESPN's marketshare...a market that is going to become even more important as traditional cable dies out. Secondly, FOX has been a thorn in that they lured the Big Ten away. Well, let's consider for a moment that 2 of FOX's biggest college properties have already been stolen by ESPN. Texas and Oklahoma will soon be in the fold. FOX's investment in the Big 12 is on life support and won't be that significant in the marketplace even if it continues. Their investment in the PAC 12 isn't much better as they don't have the gravitas to buoy an investment in the major Big Ten games. The Big Ten knows this...despite all the wheeling and dealing in recent years, ESPN has made moves to increase the synergy of their portfolio rather than really losing key pieces.

So what's the point? I don't think CBS is so much a bluff for the Big Ten. I think it's a legitimate desire, but I also think sharing the Big Ten with CBS is preferable for ESPN as opposed to sharing the Big Ten with FOX as they currently do.

CBS and ESPN could form an incredible partnership on an independent basketball tournament, one that would likely never materialize with FOX. It's also one that could work just fine with Turner, as it currently does, but CBS and ESPN would form a better synergy. Even if ESPN becomes a 3rd partner with CBS and Turner, that's still a significant play in the marketplace.

As far as college football goes, CBS already works pretty well with ESPN in that they share the SEC. CBS doesn't want to lose out on that product completely. Having Big Ten games would be significant, and having their broadcast partner promoted on ESPN would be the cherry on top...it's a dynamic they're already used to.

For the Big Ten's part, I think they still want to be with ESPN in part, but they will use their leverage to gain long term stability rather than short term financial gains. If that plan fails then a FOX/CBS combo is not a bad deal for them, just not their best scenario.

For ESPN's part, stealing more content from FOX would be a huge get and increase their overall marketshare. They have to consider what it would take to squeeze FOX out of the equation for all intents and purposes.

So I go back to something we've discussed at length before, the desire of the Big Ten to raid the ACC and the theory that ESPN would aid them in order to keep their content in house.

If Florida State and Miami make a break for the SEC then the Big Ten stands to gain if they take a few as well. The Big 12 could clean up some leftovers or perhaps an ACC survives and recruits a few current G5s.

I could see the SEC being interested in that combo not simply because it would lock down Florida, but because both programs still have some national cachet. If nothing else, their inclusion bumps up the watchability of 2nd tier games tremendously. If that plays out then I think UNC and Duke would also come aboard. Their inclusion would bump up the basketball value in a new market(a more valuable college basketball season as a whole). For the SEC, that's a very solid 20 and it doesn't stretch geography too much.

Would they stop there? Well, Virginia Tech and Clemson make a lot of sense too, but only if the league is balanced out a little more out West. What I mean is that the core of the ACC has already been gutted. How many of these schools are worth 76.5 million a year? Not very many, but in conjunction with one another, there's ample eyeballs to be had if you access new markets.

I'm going to get crazy here and say that moving from 20 to 24 isn't worth it unless you grow the footprint. Kansas makes sense, but you need an even bigger player than that. Notre Dame would make a big splash by themselves, but I argue they would prefer something a little more expansive.

It hasn't really been suggested, but beyond a handful of ACC schools, the only additions that make sense are in the PAC 12. The Big Ten would have something to say about that, but I don't see the PAC 12 moving en masse anywhere. The reason is because their current overall weakness has been brought about by the consensus position. Nonetheless, there are defectors from that perspective. Yes, they did get rid of Larry Scott and replace him with a more reasonably minded, sports focused commissioner, but I think the damage has been done. More relevant is that the fact that the West Coast isn't set up to economically support a whole league at the Power 5 level. Now does that reality mean that every single school currently in the PAC will go down with the ship without a fight? I don't see it because some of those schools have genuinely different aspirations.

Now, one might say that it would make more sense for a collection of the PAC 12, perhaps even all of them to move to the Big Ten. It does make sense, but some PAC schools seem to desire something more akin to what Texas and Oklahoma wanted...prestige, money, and all the trappings of success.

I think USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Utah form a nice nucleus that isn't too culturally estranged.

Add the aforementioned Virginia Tech and Clemson.

Now you have a very interesting home for Notre Dame. Last one in could be Kansas although it doesn't much matter at that point.

I see the Big Ten looking at certain ACC properties and finishing out with a few like-minded PAC schools.

How crazy am I?

So in a move to 20 you would be fine with UNC, Duke, Miami, and FSU?
In a move to 24 you would add Kansas, Clemson, Va Tech, and who?

I think you'd need a power like Notre Dame in that 2nd batch.

Someone that stretches the borders of the viewing audience.
01-07-2022 06:07 PM
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Soobahk40050 Offline
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Post: #284
RE: Time, Monetary Disparity, Pressure, and No Brokering Equals Unexpected Consequences
(01-04-2022 11:06 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(01-03-2022 08:06 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-03-2022 07:48 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(12-27-2021 08:54 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I believe the ACC is now at a crossroads and is deliberating over a plate full of reality. The are staring at a 40 million dollar deficit in media revenue alone compared to the SEC's new contract, and know that when the Big Ten renews, likely next year, that a similar deficit will exist there. They just finished a woeful football season and only retiring Coach K is having a solid basketball season. In other words they are getting a blast of what media revenue deficits can do.

Now they've issued a survey asking alumni and season ticket holders how they feel about the ACC and how they feel about other conferences. Football bell cow Clemson has lost its AD, DC, & OC and Dabo has been scoping out NFL options.

I'd say the clock is ticking on the ACC and since they are under ESPN's thumb I could see 7 of them joining the SEC with perhaps Kansas, and the rest helping to create a P3 with B12 and PAC 12 remnants. I could also see the 9 AAU schools of the PAC joining Notre Dame in the Big 10.

California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah

Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Wisconsin

Indiana, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers



SEC:

Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina

Alabama, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M


New Big 12:

Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon State, San Diego State*, Texas Tech, Washington State

Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Central Florida, Georgia Tech, Miami, South Florida*, Tulane*, Wake Forest

*Army, Navy, and Air Force could replace these 3.


I'm feeling a bit more confident that we may work our way to something like this.

Conference Semis and Finals and the 3 conference champs and one at large advance to the CFP.

Been thinking about this for a few days. Started to post a couple of times and just deleted everything.

My premise here is that the ACC would survive in some context. Just as the Big 12 did after the powers destabilized it by leaving. I think ESPN is best served by having a league like the ACC...just not with the entirety of its current membership.

The key cog in all of it is Notre Dame. ESPN and the ACC want them to be full members, but ND hasn't found the sufficient motivation yet. I think one day they will, but it seems debatable as to what exactly will trigger that change and when. I will say though that Notre Dame will have little incentive to remain independent if the SEC or other conferences decide to de-emphasize their role in the NCAA. Whether that's separating the basketball postseason(which would essentially bankrupt the NCAA) or simply setting up a more formal separation, this sort of shift will force ND to look at things a different way because all of a sudden an independent schedule doesn't mean much. If the Big Ten and the SEC depart then who is ND going to spend their time playing? And to what end? A postseason absent the richest and most prominent names in the game? Seems pointless.

That's more of an aside. More specifically, I think ESPN wants to create a suitable home for ND so that they can truly control their rights. The economics of other major moves wouldn't be as significant as finally nailing down ND.

ND wants a national schedule for national exposure. They want to compete for championships and they want to play like-minded schools for the most part. For them, independence is a means to an end. Yes, it is part of their identity, but only because of the advantages it offers. Independence unto itself won't grant them everything they want in a vacuum.

So Notre Dame is in the driver's seat so to speak. Under the current dynamics, they have no motivation to make anything other than an ideal move. That could change in the not too distant future, but for now, they do what they want because they can.

So the primary reason I think the ACC will survive is because there are so many sub-par brands in that league. If those schools didn't occupy large population centers then their TV value would be more akin to the American...only a few ACC schools transcend their home market in any meaningful way.

So I see the ACC as a mirror to the Big 12 in some respect because it's a collection of schools that are capable of competing at a high level, but have less gravitas to really win titles and fans consistently on a broad basis. Those are the things that build a successful athletic program...winning and eyeballs. That's where the money comes from.

The other dynamic here is that I think there will be some competition for the ACC schools that have value. That's where the Big Ten really wants to go...it's the demographic infusion they need.

So to me, the new linchpin is Florida State or Miami. These are once proud programs with some economic struggles and less success than they really want. For example, Miami just went out and got Mario Cristobal from Oregon...a far more successful program over the last 15 years. Miami also stole Clemson's AD and perhaps that demonstrates that Clemson's potential is quite limited. For Florida State's part, they have a jaded fan base that realizes they almost left back in 2011 and are a bit mystified that their administration signed a GOR with the ACC.

These programs are linchpins in part because of their motivation and in part because their departure would doom the whole ACC.

Okay, you told me ND isn't moving anytime soon. Clemson is not as desirable as Clemson thinks. You indicated FSU wants change and stated Miami is upgrading.

Here's what you didn't tell me. Why schools who can earn 76 million by moving won't. And if they do where they will realign, and how can the ACC possibly avoid mass exodus once some of the big brands cash in with B1G or SEC invites? And if someone does head B1G why ESPN would let it happen if they could own them in the SEC?

So who leaves and where do they go and why?

If pressed on the specifics, here's how I would look at it.

Notre Dame is ok with the current ACC format, but if the league blows up then everything changes. How could the league blow up? Florida State and/or Miami have to be snagged somehow. At that point, the ACC is in mortal danger.

Something tells me they could move together as it would be simpler that way and they certainly value their rivalry. The SEC makes the most sense and it's the move that ESPN could negotiate if they really want to alter the status of the ACC...it's all internal at that point. Equally important would be where the other pieces go and why.

We've seen the SBJ float the idea that the Big Ten could just split their rights between FOX and CBS. It wouldn't be a bad move for them, but honestly, I think this sort of leak is more of a trial ballon. We haven't really seen any figures on a deal like that, for one. Secondly, although we can certainly expect these negotiations are ongoing, there's nothing about that arrangement (FOX/CBS combo) that screams anything other than short term financial gain for the Big Ten. They've stated in the past how important it was for them to have placement on ESPN and anyone who follows the media landscape knows there's no reason for that to have changed. So I think it's a threat.

ESPN wants that content for their ever-expanding streaming portfolio. No, they don't need Big Ten games for their ABC or ESPN prime time matchups, but that doesn't mean the games aren't valuable. The Big Ten wants a portion of the current ACC in exchange. If ESPN won't give it to them then they will take their ball and go elsewhere. That means when the ACC does become truly vulnerable then the Big Ten is an existential threat so to speak. They would have rival networks at their back and no influence from ESPN on their decision making. I don't think ESPN is quite ready for that world.

In conjunction with that dynamic, we have the reality that the next big money grab in college sports will come from basketball and a tournament independent of the NCAA. Who has the inside track on broadcasting that tournament because of the equity in the marketplace they've built? CBS. Obviously Turner plays a role there, but it's a small one as it pertains to college conferences. Who would desperately want to crack that nut and be a key figure in the new world of the basketball tournament? ESPN, right?

Now let's think about FOX's role here. They've worked in conjunction with ESPN, but they are a spoiler. They have national sports networks that take away from ESPN's marketshare...a market that is going to become even more important as traditional cable dies out. Secondly, FOX has been a thorn in that they lured the Big Ten away. Well, let's consider for a moment that 2 of FOX's biggest college properties have already been stolen by ESPN. Texas and Oklahoma will soon be in the fold. FOX's investment in the Big 12 is on life support and won't be that significant in the marketplace even if it continues. Their investment in the PAC 12 isn't much better as they don't have the gravitas to buoy an investment in the major Big Ten games. The Big Ten knows this...despite all the wheeling and dealing in recent years, ESPN has made moves to increase the synergy of their portfolio rather than really losing key pieces.

So what's the point? I don't think CBS is so much a bluff for the Big Ten. I think it's a legitimate desire, but I also think sharing the Big Ten with CBS is preferable for ESPN as opposed to sharing the Big Ten with FOX as they currently do.

CBS and ESPN could form an incredible partnership on an independent basketball tournament, one that would likely never materialize with FOX. It's also one that could work just fine with Turner, as it currently does, but CBS and ESPN would form a better synergy. Even if ESPN becomes a 3rd partner with CBS and Turner, that's still a significant play in the marketplace.

As far as college football goes, CBS already works pretty well with ESPN in that they share the SEC. CBS doesn't want to lose out on that product completely. Having Big Ten games would be significant, and having their broadcast partner promoted on ESPN would be the cherry on top...it's a dynamic they're already used to.

For the Big Ten's part, I think they still want to be with ESPN in part, but they will use their leverage to gain long term stability rather than short term financial gains. If that plan fails then a FOX/CBS combo is not a bad deal for them, just not their best scenario.

For ESPN's part, stealing more content from FOX would be a huge get and increase their overall marketshare. They have to consider what it would take to squeeze FOX out of the equation for all intents and purposes.

So I go back to something we've discussed at length before, the desire of the Big Ten to raid the ACC and the theory that ESPN would aid them in order to keep their content in house.

If Florida State and Miami make a break for the SEC then the Big Ten stands to gain if they take a few as well. The Big 12 could clean up some leftovers or perhaps an ACC survives and recruits a few current G5s.

I could see the SEC being interested in that combo not simply because it would lock down Florida, but because both programs still have some national cachet. If nothing else, their inclusion bumps up the watchability of 2nd tier games tremendously. If that plays out then I think UNC and Duke would also come aboard. Their inclusion would bump up the basketball value in a new market(a more valuable college basketball season as a whole). For the SEC, that's a very solid 20 and it doesn't stretch geography too much.

Would they stop there? Well, Virginia Tech and Clemson make a lot of sense too, but only if the league is balanced out a little more out West. What I mean is that the core of the ACC has already been gutted. How many of these schools are worth 76.5 million a year? Not very many, but in conjunction with one another, there's ample eyeballs to be had if you access new markets.

I'm going to get crazy here and say that moving from 20 to 24 isn't worth it unless you grow the footprint. Kansas makes sense, but you need an even bigger player than that. Notre Dame would make a big splash by themselves, but I argue they would prefer something a little more expansive.

It hasn't really been suggested, but beyond a handful of ACC schools, the only additions that make sense are in the PAC 12. The Big Ten would have something to say about that, but I don't see the PAC 12 moving en masse anywhere. The reason is because their current overall weakness has been brought about by the consensus position. Nonetheless, there are defectors from that perspective. Yes, they did get rid of Larry Scott and replace him with a more reasonably minded, sports focused commissioner, but I think the damage has been done. More relevant is that the fact that the West Coast isn't set up to economically support a whole league at the Power 5 level. Now does that reality mean that every single school currently in the PAC will go down with the ship without a fight? I don't see it because some of those schools have genuinely different aspirations.

Now, one might say that it would make more sense for a collection of the PAC 12, perhaps even all of them to move to the Big Ten. It does make sense, but some PAC schools seem to desire something more akin to what Texas and Oklahoma wanted...prestige, money, and all the trappings of success.

I think USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Utah form a nice nucleus that isn't too culturally estranged.

Add the aforementioned Virginia Tech and Clemson.

Now you have a very interesting home for Notre Dame. Last one in could be Kansas although it doesn't much matter at that point.

I see the Big Ten looking at certain ACC properties and finishing out with a few like-minded PAC schools.

How crazy am I?

At the risk of getting into political weeds, but if we are thinking PAC schools, historically speaking, Arizona (as a state) is more connected with the southern states than Oregon.

Arizona was a confederate outpost during the war. Utah does have some historical connection with say Missouri through the Mormon history.

I think the ACC actually has a better cultural fit with the PAC.
(This post was last modified: 01-08-2022 01:05 PM by Soobahk40050.)
01-08-2022 01:02 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #285
RE: Time, Monetary Disparity, Pressure, and No Brokering Equals Unexpected Consequences
(01-08-2022 01:02 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(01-04-2022 11:06 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(01-03-2022 08:06 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-03-2022 07:48 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(12-27-2021 08:54 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I believe the ACC is now at a crossroads and is deliberating over a plate full of reality. The are staring at a 40 million dollar deficit in media revenue alone compared to the SEC's new contract, and know that when the Big Ten renews, likely next year, that a similar deficit will exist there. They just finished a woeful football season and only retiring Coach K is having a solid basketball season. In other words they are getting a blast of what media revenue deficits can do.

Now they've issued a survey asking alumni and season ticket holders how they feel about the ACC and how they feel about other conferences. Football bell cow Clemson has lost its AD, DC, & OC and Dabo has been scoping out NFL options.

I'd say the clock is ticking on the ACC and since they are under ESPN's thumb I could see 7 of them joining the SEC with perhaps Kansas, and the rest helping to create a P3 with B12 and PAC 12 remnants. I could also see the 9 AAU schools of the PAC joining Notre Dame in the Big 10.

California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah

Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Wisconsin

Indiana, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers



SEC:

Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina

Alabama, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M


New Big 12:

Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon State, San Diego State*, Texas Tech, Washington State

Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Central Florida, Georgia Tech, Miami, South Florida*, Tulane*, Wake Forest

*Army, Navy, and Air Force could replace these 3.


I'm feeling a bit more confident that we may work our way to something like this.

Conference Semis and Finals and the 3 conference champs and one at large advance to the CFP.

Been thinking about this for a few days. Started to post a couple of times and just deleted everything.

My premise here is that the ACC would survive in some context. Just as the Big 12 did after the powers destabilized it by leaving. I think ESPN is best served by having a league like the ACC...just not with the entirety of its current membership.

The key cog in all of it is Notre Dame. ESPN and the ACC want them to be full members, but ND hasn't found the sufficient motivation yet. I think one day they will, but it seems debatable as to what exactly will trigger that change and when. I will say though that Notre Dame will have little incentive to remain independent if the SEC or other conferences decide to de-emphasize their role in the NCAA. Whether that's separating the basketball postseason(which would essentially bankrupt the NCAA) or simply setting up a more formal separation, this sort of shift will force ND to look at things a different way because all of a sudden an independent schedule doesn't mean much. If the Big Ten and the SEC depart then who is ND going to spend their time playing? And to what end? A postseason absent the richest and most prominent names in the game? Seems pointless.

That's more of an aside. More specifically, I think ESPN wants to create a suitable home for ND so that they can truly control their rights. The economics of other major moves wouldn't be as significant as finally nailing down ND.

ND wants a national schedule for national exposure. They want to compete for championships and they want to play like-minded schools for the most part. For them, independence is a means to an end. Yes, it is part of their identity, but only because of the advantages it offers. Independence unto itself won't grant them everything they want in a vacuum.

So Notre Dame is in the driver's seat so to speak. Under the current dynamics, they have no motivation to make anything other than an ideal move. That could change in the not too distant future, but for now, they do what they want because they can.

So the primary reason I think the ACC will survive is because there are so many sub-par brands in that league. If those schools didn't occupy large population centers then their TV value would be more akin to the American...only a few ACC schools transcend their home market in any meaningful way.

So I see the ACC as a mirror to the Big 12 in some respect because it's a collection of schools that are capable of competing at a high level, but have less gravitas to really win titles and fans consistently on a broad basis. Those are the things that build a successful athletic program...winning and eyeballs. That's where the money comes from.

The other dynamic here is that I think there will be some competition for the ACC schools that have value. That's where the Big Ten really wants to go...it's the demographic infusion they need.

So to me, the new linchpin is Florida State or Miami. These are once proud programs with some economic struggles and less success than they really want. For example, Miami just went out and got Mario Cristobal from Oregon...a far more successful program over the last 15 years. Miami also stole Clemson's AD and perhaps that demonstrates that Clemson's potential is quite limited. For Florida State's part, they have a jaded fan base that realizes they almost left back in 2011 and are a bit mystified that their administration signed a GOR with the ACC.

These programs are linchpins in part because of their motivation and in part because their departure would doom the whole ACC.

Okay, you told me ND isn't moving anytime soon. Clemson is not as desirable as Clemson thinks. You indicated FSU wants change and stated Miami is upgrading.

Here's what you didn't tell me. Why schools who can earn 76 million by moving won't. And if they do where they will realign, and how can the ACC possibly avoid mass exodus once some of the big brands cash in with B1G or SEC invites? And if someone does head B1G why ESPN would let it happen if they could own them in the SEC?

So who leaves and where do they go and why?

If pressed on the specifics, here's how I would look at it.

Notre Dame is ok with the current ACC format, but if the league blows up then everything changes. How could the league blow up? Florida State and/or Miami have to be snagged somehow. At that point, the ACC is in mortal danger.

Something tells me they could move together as it would be simpler that way and they certainly value their rivalry. The SEC makes the most sense and it's the move that ESPN could negotiate if they really want to alter the status of the ACC...it's all internal at that point. Equally important would be where the other pieces go and why.

We've seen the SBJ float the idea that the Big Ten could just split their rights between FOX and CBS. It wouldn't be a bad move for them, but honestly, I think this sort of leak is more of a trial ballon. We haven't really seen any figures on a deal like that, for one. Secondly, although we can certainly expect these negotiations are ongoing, there's nothing about that arrangement (FOX/CBS combo) that screams anything other than short term financial gain for the Big Ten. They've stated in the past how important it was for them to have placement on ESPN and anyone who follows the media landscape knows there's no reason for that to have changed. So I think it's a threat.

ESPN wants that content for their ever-expanding streaming portfolio. No, they don't need Big Ten games for their ABC or ESPN prime time matchups, but that doesn't mean the games aren't valuable. The Big Ten wants a portion of the current ACC in exchange. If ESPN won't give it to them then they will take their ball and go elsewhere. That means when the ACC does become truly vulnerable then the Big Ten is an existential threat so to speak. They would have rival networks at their back and no influence from ESPN on their decision making. I don't think ESPN is quite ready for that world.

In conjunction with that dynamic, we have the reality that the next big money grab in college sports will come from basketball and a tournament independent of the NCAA. Who has the inside track on broadcasting that tournament because of the equity in the marketplace they've built? CBS. Obviously Turner plays a role there, but it's a small one as it pertains to college conferences. Who would desperately want to crack that nut and be a key figure in the new world of the basketball tournament? ESPN, right?

Now let's think about FOX's role here. They've worked in conjunction with ESPN, but they are a spoiler. They have national sports networks that take away from ESPN's marketshare...a market that is going to become even more important as traditional cable dies out. Secondly, FOX has been a thorn in that they lured the Big Ten away. Well, let's consider for a moment that 2 of FOX's biggest college properties have already been stolen by ESPN. Texas and Oklahoma will soon be in the fold. FOX's investment in the Big 12 is on life support and won't be that significant in the marketplace even if it continues. Their investment in the PAC 12 isn't much better as they don't have the gravitas to buoy an investment in the major Big Ten games. The Big Ten knows this...despite all the wheeling and dealing in recent years, ESPN has made moves to increase the synergy of their portfolio rather than really losing key pieces.

So what's the point? I don't think CBS is so much a bluff for the Big Ten. I think it's a legitimate desire, but I also think sharing the Big Ten with CBS is preferable for ESPN as opposed to sharing the Big Ten with FOX as they currently do.

CBS and ESPN could form an incredible partnership on an independent basketball tournament, one that would likely never materialize with FOX. It's also one that could work just fine with Turner, as it currently does, but CBS and ESPN would form a better synergy. Even if ESPN becomes a 3rd partner with CBS and Turner, that's still a significant play in the marketplace.

As far as college football goes, CBS already works pretty well with ESPN in that they share the SEC. CBS doesn't want to lose out on that product completely. Having Big Ten games would be significant, and having their broadcast partner promoted on ESPN would be the cherry on top...it's a dynamic they're already used to.

For the Big Ten's part, I think they still want to be with ESPN in part, but they will use their leverage to gain long term stability rather than short term financial gains. If that plan fails then a FOX/CBS combo is not a bad deal for them, just not their best scenario.

For ESPN's part, stealing more content from FOX would be a huge get and increase their overall marketshare. They have to consider what it would take to squeeze FOX out of the equation for all intents and purposes.

So I go back to something we've discussed at length before, the desire of the Big Ten to raid the ACC and the theory that ESPN would aid them in order to keep their content in house.

If Florida State and Miami make a break for the SEC then the Big Ten stands to gain if they take a few as well. The Big 12 could clean up some leftovers or perhaps an ACC survives and recruits a few current G5s.

I could see the SEC being interested in that combo not simply because it would lock down Florida, but because both programs still have some national cachet. If nothing else, their inclusion bumps up the watchability of 2nd tier games tremendously. If that plays out then I think UNC and Duke would also come aboard. Their inclusion would bump up the basketball value in a new market(a more valuable college basketball season as a whole). For the SEC, that's a very solid 20 and it doesn't stretch geography too much.

Would they stop there? Well, Virginia Tech and Clemson make a lot of sense too, but only if the league is balanced out a little more out West. What I mean is that the core of the ACC has already been gutted. How many of these schools are worth 76.5 million a year? Not very many, but in conjunction with one another, there's ample eyeballs to be had if you access new markets.

I'm going to get crazy here and say that moving from 20 to 24 isn't worth it unless you grow the footprint. Kansas makes sense, but you need an even bigger player than that. Notre Dame would make a big splash by themselves, but I argue they would prefer something a little more expansive.

It hasn't really been suggested, but beyond a handful of ACC schools, the only additions that make sense are in the PAC 12. The Big Ten would have something to say about that, but I don't see the PAC 12 moving en masse anywhere. The reason is because their current overall weakness has been brought about by the consensus position. Nonetheless, there are defectors from that perspective. Yes, they did get rid of Larry Scott and replace him with a more reasonably minded, sports focused commissioner, but I think the damage has been done. More relevant is that the fact that the West Coast isn't set up to economically support a whole league at the Power 5 level. Now does that reality mean that every single school currently in the PAC will go down with the ship without a fight? I don't see it because some of those schools have genuinely different aspirations.

Now, one might say that it would make more sense for a collection of the PAC 12, perhaps even all of them to move to the Big Ten. It does make sense, but some PAC schools seem to desire something more akin to what Texas and Oklahoma wanted...prestige, money, and all the trappings of success.

I think USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Utah form a nice nucleus that isn't too culturally estranged.

Add the aforementioned Virginia Tech and Clemson.

Now you have a very interesting home for Notre Dame. Last one in could be Kansas although it doesn't much matter at that point.

I see the Big Ten looking at certain ACC properties and finishing out with a few like-minded PAC schools.

How crazy am I?

At the risk of getting into political weeds, but if we are thinking PAC schools, historically speaking, Arizona (as a state) is more connected with the southern states than Oregon.

Arizona was a confederate outpost during the war. Utah does have some historical connection with say Missouri through the Mormon history.

I think the ACC actually has a better cultural fit with the PAC.

The P5 is now distanced this way:
1. SEC
2. B1G (but farther behind in athletic prestige and future potential because of OU and UT, but certainly right there in money)
3. PAC 12 (almost dead even with the ACC but still has slightly more prestige)
4. ACC (as week as the PAC athleically and slipping in basketball)
5. Big 12 (without OU and UT the #3 athletic conference but with no national audience / will likely outlast the ACC and possibly the PAC)

The SEC is now even better positioned to acquire a long term objective; a presence in North Carolina and Virginia. Having Texas, Florida, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt along with Missouri now makes the conference more attractive and familiar to UNC. Since we already agreed that Duke would be an acceptable companion that move IMO, is now likely. If Virginia wants to maintain that association you have a third. So who is 4th? Florida State gives us a solid fit and an overwhelming majority of Florida Viewers. Miami has better academics and puts us in the other half of the state. Georgia Tech is AAU. Virginia Tech is more sports friendly than Virginia and sets up nicely with Tennessee. N.C. State is the last part of the research triangle and close to AAU status.

The first inclination of the SEC will be to move to 20. Taking Duke, North Carolina and Virginia seems to me to be the likeliest move because it not only adds those states but negates a contiguous path into the South for the B1G. I think a second Florida School is in the mix, most likely FSU. Without Clemson however, USC will be most put off that Florida protected their chief rival and that South Carolina did not. Couple that to reaching a different part of the state and Miami could become a compromise position. This aspect will be fascinating to watch.

If the SEC can move to 20 out of the ACC alone we'll do it, and won't consider 24 if their is no interest displayed by the Big 10 in Va Tech and N.C. State as a pathway to Ga Tech and FSU. If the SEC feels confident in Duke, UNC, Virginia as a block on Big 10 expansion South then perhaps we eschew a second Florida school entirely and add Kansas as a 4th AAU and the third new state.

All are facing money deficits too large to ignore, are watching said deficits erode their competitiveness in their favorite sports and all now realize that they truly can't control their destinies where they are.

So a move from 16 to 20 seems likely to me for offensive, defensive, and academic reasons, and for athletic balance.

ESPN could easily use Va Tech, N.C. State, Georgia Tech, Miami and Florida State to build appeal in the New Big 12 sans Kansas. And in Pitt, Louisville, B.C. and Syracuse and that too becomes a nice 20.

If ESPN picks up all B12 rights then they can sculpt their premier conference and create a competitive second conference and control all of the area the now control. This leaves FOX a Big 10 which will add Notre Dame and possibly Iowa State or Colorado and stop at 16. And it would force the PAC 12 to look at absorbing part of the MWC to preserve their regional standing, or possibly merging with the Big Ten with at least 9 schools.

A new Big 12 and SEC at 20 and the Big 10 at 24 efficiently arranges the current P5, allows it to share a 12-team playoff, and to separate from the NCAA and monetize fully basketball. So, the Big 12 and SEC have four divisions of 5 each and the Big 10 has 4 divisions of 6. That's 12 divisional champs seeded for a playoff.

SEC:

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas

Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee

Duke, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia

New Merger (if to 24)
:

Cincinnati, Iowa State, Louisville, Kansas State, Oklahoma State (Memphis)

Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, West Virginia (Wake Forest)

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State (Central Florida)

Arizona State, Baylor, Brigham Young, Texas Christian, Texas Tech (Houston)

Big 10 (Union Pacific):

Indiana, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers

Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Wisconsin

Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah

California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
(This post was last modified: 01-09-2022 01:51 PM by JRsec.)
01-09-2022 01:13 PM
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