Per Phil Steele - Largest point spread upsets since 1997.
In those games, only SEVEN have lost the game straight up, including zero last year. The largest all time upset took place in 2007 when Jim Harbaugh led Stanford (+41) to an upset victory at USC. In addition, the second biggest upset took place in 1997 when Syracuse (+37) stunned Louisville. The other 5 huge upsets since 1997 were: (#3) Texas State (+36.5) over Houston in 2012, Temple (+35.5) over Virginia Tech in 1998, Central Michigan (+35.5) over Western Michigan in 2000, James Madison (+35) over Virginia Tech in 2010 and North Texas (+32) over Texas Tech in 1997. In sum, if your team is installed as an underdog of 31.5 points or more in a game, they basically have a 0.89% chance of winning.

You're welcome

https://philsteele.com/Blogs/2015/JULY15/DBJuly17.html

(07-18-2015 01:09 PM)CatMom Wrote:  Per Phil Steele - Largest point spread upsets since 1997.
In those games, only SEVEN have lost the game straight up, including zero last year. The largest all time upset took place in 2007 when Jim Harbaugh led Stanford (+41) to an upset victory at USC. In addition, the second biggest upset took place in 1997 when Syracuse (+37) stunned Louisville. The other 5 huge upsets since 1997 were: (#3) Texas State (+36.5) over Houston in 2012, Temple (+35.5) over Virginia Tech in 1998, Central Michigan (+35.5) over Western Michigan in 2000, James Madison (+35) over Virginia Tech in 2010 and North Texas (+32) over Texas Tech in 1997. In sum, if your team is installed as an underdog of 31.5 points or more in a game, they basically have a 0.89% chance of winning.

You're welcome

https://philsteele.com/Blogs/2015/JULY15/DBJuly17.html

Interesting. I'd be curious to know what percentage of +31.5 dogs cover the spread in college football.

What was the point spread of the Michigan-App St game???

With Michigan being ranked in the top 5, I was sure that was going to be there.

(07-18-2015 02:32 PM)Usajags Wrote:  What was the point spread of the Michigan-App St game???

With Michigan being ranked in the top 5, I was sure that was going to be there.

According to Wikipedia, "the predicted outcome was a lopsided victory for Michigan, and Las Vegas sportsbooks did not give a betting line." I'd say winning a "no-line" game should qualify App for inclusion on that list.

(07-18-2015 03:11 PM)jim121256 Wrote:  

(07-18-2015 02:32 PM)Usajags Wrote:  What was the point spread of the Michigan-App St game???

With Michigan being ranked in the top 5, I was sure that was going to be there.

According to Wikipedia, "the predicted outcome was a lopsided victory for Michigan, and Las Vegas sportsbooks did not give a betting line." I'd say winning a "no-line" game should qualify App for inclusion on that list.

No doubt it was major and I thoroughly enjoyed that game but, he's using a specific formula that, I assume, doesn't allow for no line bets.

Actually, I didn't think Vegas gave lines for FCS v FBS, but he had the JMU-VaTech game listed.

(07-18-2015 03:40 PM)Usajags Wrote:  Actually, I didn't think Vegas gave lines for FCS v FBS, but he had the JMU-VaTech game listed.

Typically they do.

(07-18-2015 03:40 PM)Usajags Wrote:  Actually, I didn't think Vegas gave lines for FCS v FBS, but he had the JMU-VaTech game listed.

From my EXTREMELY limited gambling knowledge, this is true... But like 95 other places provide links cause they want the money.

I think the spread was 24 (maybe 28) points on five dimes.

Why is 1997 the baseline?

(07-18-2015 06:16 PM)SOT1977 Wrote:  Why is 1997 the baseline?

I can answer that:

(07-18-2015 06:16 PM)SOT1977 Wrote:  Why is 1997 the baseline?

You'd probably have to ask 'ol Phil that one.

(07-18-2015 02:14 PM)airtroop Wrote:  

(07-18-2015 01:09 PM)CatMom Wrote:  Per Phil Steele - Largest point spread upsets since 1997.
In those games, only SEVEN have lost the game straight up, including zero last year. The largest all time upset took place in 2007 when Jim Harbaugh led Stanford (+41) to an upset victory at USC. In addition, the second biggest upset took place in 1997 when Syracuse (+37) stunned Louisville. The other 5 huge upsets since 1997 were: (#3) Texas State (+36.5) over Houston in 2012, Temple (+35.5) over Virginia Tech in 1998, Central Michigan (+35.5) over Western Michigan in 2000, James Madison (+35) over Virginia Tech in 2010 and North Texas (+32) over Texas Tech in 1997. In sum, if your team is installed as an underdog of 31.5 points or more in a game, they basically have a 0.89% chance of winning.

You're welcome

https://philsteele.com/Blogs/2015/JULY15/DBJuly17.html

Interesting. I'd be curious to know what percentage of +31.5 dogs cover the spread in college football.

It is probably somewhere between 50% and 52.4%. Definitely less than 54%.

(07-19-2015 07:18 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  

(07-18-2015 02:14 PM)airtroop Wrote:  

(07-18-2015 01:09 PM)CatMom Wrote:  Per Phil Steele - Largest point spread upsets since 1997.
In those games, only SEVEN have lost the game straight up, including zero last year. The largest all time upset took place in 2007 when Jim Harbaugh led Stanford (+41) to an upset victory at USC. In addition, the second biggest upset took place in 1997 when Syracuse (+37) stunned Louisville. The other 5 huge upsets since 1997 were: (#3) Texas State (+36.5) over Houston in 2012, Temple (+35.5) over Virginia Tech in 1998, Central Michigan (+35.5) over Western Michigan in 2000, James Madison (+35) over Virginia Tech in 2010 and North Texas (+32) over Texas Tech in 1997. In sum, if your team is installed as an underdog of 31.5 points or more in a game, they basically have a 0.89% chance of winning.

You're welcome

https://philsteele.com/Blogs/2015/JULY15/DBJuly17.html

Interesting. I'd be curious to know what percentage of +31.5 dogs cover the spread in college football.

It is probably somewhere between 50% and 52.4%. Definitely less than 54%.

... as I would expect. Thank you for the answer.

(07-20-2015 11:23 AM)airtroop Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 07:18 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  

(07-18-2015 02:14 PM)airtroop Wrote:  

(07-18-2015 01:09 PM)CatMom Wrote:  Per Phil Steele - Largest point spread upsets since 1997.
In those games, only SEVEN have lost the game straight up, including zero last year. The largest all time upset took place in 2007 when Jim Harbaugh led Stanford (+41) to an upset victory at USC. In addition, the second biggest upset took place in 1997 when Syracuse (+37) stunned Louisville. The other 5 huge upsets since 1997 were: (#3) Texas State (+36.5) over Houston in 2012, Temple (+35.5) over Virginia Tech in 1998, Central Michigan (+35.5) over Western Michigan in 2000, James Madison (+35) over Virginia Tech in 2010 and North Texas (+32) over Texas Tech in 1997. In sum, if your team is installed as an underdog of 31.5 points or more in a game, they basically have a 0.89% chance of winning.

You're welcome

https://philsteele.com/Blogs/2015/JULY15/DBJuly17.html

Interesting. I'd be curious to know what percentage of +31.5 dogs cover the spread in college football.

It is probably somewhere between 50% and 52.4%. Definitely less than 54%.

... as I would expect. Thank you for the answer.

This is an interesting resource.

http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/query?o...+Q+L+%21++

(07-20-2015 12:10 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  

(07-20-2015 11:23 AM)airtroop Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 07:18 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  

(07-18-2015 02:14 PM)airtroop Wrote:  

(07-18-2015 01:09 PM)CatMom Wrote:  Per Phil Steele - Largest point spread upsets since 1997.
In those games, only SEVEN have lost the game straight up, including zero last year. The largest all time upset took place in 2007 when Jim Harbaugh led Stanford (+41) to an upset victory at USC. In addition, the second biggest upset took place in 1997 when Syracuse (+37) stunned Louisville. The other 5 huge upsets since 1997 were: (#3) Texas State (+36.5) over Houston in 2012, Temple (+35.5) over Virginia Tech in 1998, Central Michigan (+35.5) over Western Michigan in 2000, James Madison (+35) over Virginia Tech in 2010 and North Texas (+32) over Texas Tech in 1997. In sum, if your team is installed as an underdog of 31.5 points or more in a game, they basically have a 0.89% chance of winning.

You're welcome

https://philsteele.com/Blogs/2015/JULY15/DBJuly17.html

Interesting. I'd be curious to know what percentage of +31.5 dogs cover the spread in college football.

It is probably somewhere between 50% and 52.4%. Definitely less than 54%.

... as I would expect. Thank you for the answer.

This is an interesting resource.

http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/query?o...+Q+L+%21++

Thanks. I had that page bookmarked and forgot it even existed.

Keep the chart handy:

GaSt 4pt favorite over Charlotte

Idaho 10pt dogs to Ohio
ULL 15pt dogs to Kentucky
GaSo 18pt dogs to WV
Troy 24pt dogs to UNC
ArkSt 28pt dogs to USC
TxSt 30pt dogs to FSU
ULM 35pt dogs to Georgia
NMSU 36pt dogs to Florida

What, too soon?

(07-20-2015 04:59 PM)DoubleAggie Wrote:  Keep the chart handy:

GaSt 4pt favorite over Charlotte

Idaho 10pt dogs to Ohio
ULL 15pt dogs to Kentucky
GaSo 18pt dogs to WV
Troy 24pt dogs to UNC
ArkSt 28pt dogs to USC
TxSt 30pt dogs to FSU
ULM 35pt dogs to Georgia
NMSU 36pt dogs to Florida

What, too soon?

Here's to hoping for a Dog Day Afternoon that Saturday for the Sun Belt.

(07-20-2015 06:52 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  

(07-20-2015 04:59 PM)DoubleAggie Wrote:  Keep the chart handy:

GaSt 4pt favorite over Charlotte

Idaho 10pt dogs to Ohio
ULL 15pt dogs to Kentucky
GaSo 18pt dogs to WV
Troy 24pt dogs to UNC
ArkSt 28pt dogs to USC
TxSt 30pt dogs to FSU
ULM 35pt dogs to Georgia
NMSU 36pt dogs to Florida

What, too soon?

Here's to hoping for a Dog Day Afternoon that Saturday for the Sun Belt.

If we have one, then....