(05-01-2015 02:23 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote: (05-01-2015 01:47 PM)TheRevSWT Wrote: (05-01-2015 12:53 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote: (05-01-2015 11:32 AM)Bobcat87 Wrote: West Va. Isn't happy being an outlier . . . . IF the Big 12 goes the expansion route, they may want to pick up 1 school in W. Va.'s neighborhood . . . .
West Virginia joined the Big 12 knowing they would be an outlier. It is not like the Big 12 promised them anything, other than a lot of money.
All these conference moves are about money. Going to 12 would mean that the Big 12 would need to add at least $40 million annually in revenue to keep expansion revenue neutral. No school wants to lose money in expansion.
None of these G5 candidates for expansion are going to entice ESPN and Fox to increase their annual payout by $40 million or more. I just don't see how any addition to the Big 12 is really can help WVU. They are going to be in the air a lot.
Wouldn't the payout be in the form of making the playoffs?
If they believe that the only thing stopping them from the playoffs was a Championship Game, then adding 2 gets them the extra game and then the playoff money.
That's the theory at least.
The payout for each team that makes the playoffs is $6 million per conference, plus $2 million for expenses. The CCG is worth something, maybe as much $10 million? Doesn't quite get the Big 12 to $40 million. I just don't see Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis or UCF doing much for either ESPN or Fox.
Maybe like this: If they add the right states and Launch the Big 12 Channel.
Big 12 Channel Launches and demands "basic" tier carriage. Big 12 holds enough demand in each state so that nearly All providers offer it.
Wholesale revenue per house hold in each of those households in a given state is what? SEC is roughly $1.40. So lets just say it is $1.00 for argument's sake.
Average residents per house is about 2.63
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html
Cin (OH) = Population (11.59 Million) = about 4.4 Million households
BYU (UT) = Population (2.934 Million) (# of people per Household likely higher than any other state due to Big Love?
= less households % wise???) = probably not 1.1 Million households.
Boise State(ID)= Population = 1.634 Million = about 621 thousand households
Populations in other states:
State/population/#of households
LA = 4.65Million = about 1.76Million
TN = 6.549 = about 2.5Million
VA = 8.326 = 3.16Million
KY = 4.413 = about 1.6Million
GA = 10.1 = 3.84Million
AR = 2.966 = 1.13 Million households
AL = 4.849 = 1.84Million
FL = 19.89!!!!= 7.56Million!!!!!!!!!!!!! (This is why the Big12 MIGHT pay to buy out a FSU or Miami!)
Now consider that maybe 84% of these households are pay TV service subscribers
http://www.cedmagazine.com/news/2014/09/...tv-service
MONTHLY REVENUES from NEW STATES at a rate of only about 2/3 of the SEC deal (and it might be more than this) would mean the following revenues for the BIG12 Network which would be partnered with a major producer like ESPN - so there is that to figure in/ but remember that most of these are games not carried by the regular ESPN and it is year round/ 24/7 coverage of all things BIG12 so it really shouldn't subtract from any current ESPN deal money. But ESPN will keep a portion. How much? Who knows. Let's say it is 50% for fun and see where the numbers are.
Per State added:
Total revenue is figured here like this (84% of households x $1.00)
List below:
Total revenue / 50%/Per Year
Cin (OH) = 3.69 Mill/ 1.845 Mill Per month = $22.14 Mill per Year.
BYU (UT) = .924 Mill/ .462 Mill per month = $6.6 Mill per Year
BSU(ID)= .52164 Mill/ .26082 Mill per month= $3.13 Mill per Year
Populations in other states:
LA =1.4784 Mill/ .7392 Mill Per month = $8.87 Mill per Year.
TN = $2.5 Mill/ $1.25 Mill Per month = $15.0 Mill per Year.
VA = 2.6544Mill/ 1.3272Mill Per month = $15.93Mill per Year.
KY = 1.344Million/ $.672 Mill per month = $ 8.064Mill per Year
GA = 3.22Mill/ $1.6 per month = $19.4 Mill per year
AR = .95Mill/ $.475Mill per month = $ 5.7 Mill per year
AL =1.5456Million/ .7728Mill per month = $ 9.27Mill per year
FL = 6.35Million/ $3.1752 Mill per month = $38.10Mill per year
Strange that the Longhorn network may in fact be what kills the big 12 IF all the other P5 conferences launch their own and the BIG 12 doesn't.