(02-20-2015 01:39 PM)ken d Wrote: No moves make much sense to me for the MWC. They clearly have no interest in two obvious geographical fits (Idaho and New Mexico State). A third, UTEP, seems to prefer being aligned with schools to their east. That leaves very slim pickins for them.
It's hard to see many teams that would not make the AAC weaker than it is now.
The MAC could expand in a geographically logical way, and in a way that might even help it competitively. They could potentially seek out Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky, Marshall and Army.
That would leave the MAC at 16, and the MWC and AAC at 12 apiece. The SBC would stand at 9 and CUSA at 10. I suppose they could merge, but why bother? It's not going to improve your bottom line.
It's a shame, because there are exactly 16 G5 programs in the Mountain and Pacific Time Zones - BYU, the 12 members of the Mountain West, Idaho, NMSU, and UTEP. If you could somehow get them to all cooperate, that is the first quadrant of the G4.
The second quadrant would be for the American to fill in the eastern part of its footprint by adding UMass, Marshall, Old Dominion, and Army. Honestly you could make a good argument for any number of schools - Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech, Georgia State, Georgia Southern, UTSA, Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, etc., but I think in the end the American ultimately seeks out new states and markets not covered by its current members.
The MAC is the one that would be hardest to call, but ultimately I see them going hard to push southward - this would likely be Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, Arkansas State, and Louisiana Tech. Louisiana Tech could probably be coaxed into this move simply to avoid being in a conference with Louisiana-Monroe. If the American chooses a MAC school (or two) over Army, I could see Army joining the MAC and the MAC trying to become a "national" conference, at least in the Eastern and Central Time Zones.
The end result is that the Sun Belt and C-USA merge with exactly 16 members.
MWC
Pacific - San Diego State, San Jose State, Fresno State, Hawaii
Western - Boise State, Idaho, Nevada, UNLV
Mountain - BYU, Colorado State, Air Force, Wyoming
Southern - Utah State, New Mexico, New Mexico State, UTEP
AAC
North - UConn, UMass, Temple, Army
East - Cincinnati, Marshall, Old Dominion, Navy
South - USF, UCF, East Carolina, Memphis
West - SMU, Houston, Tulsa, Tulane
MAC
East - Buffalo, Kent, Akron, Ohio
West - NIU, Ball State, WMU, CMU
North - EMU, Toledo, Bowling Green, Miami (OH)
South - Louisiana Tech, WKU, MTSU, Arkansas State
C-USA
West - UTSA, Texas State, Rice, North Texas
Central - Louisiana, ULM, Southern Miss, South Alabama
East - Charlotte, App State, Georgia State, UAB*
South - FAU, FIU, Troy, Georgia Southern
The real drawback is that right now there is $60.8 Million of CFP money divided between the G5 conferences, Army, and BYU. There would have to be a way to make sure each conference can distribute at least $1 MM to its members, as members of the conferences at or below 12 currently enjoy that payout now.