I'm really disappointed about the loss, but still think this team is very good. I do worry about this happening in the tournament, but I also still believe this year is the year.

(02-06-2015 08:43 AM)Paulbintheburg Wrote:  

(02-06-2015 08:40 AM)Tribal Wrote:  This all goes away if we beat UNCW, as we should. It's not like losing to CoC sent us to the bottom of the CAA in one fell swoop. The chicken little mentality is useless so bury the game and keep fighting for the prize.

What he said.

If this fanbase was in charge of taking Omaha Beach, the result would be that almost all of Europe would recognize Hitler's birthday as a national holiday.

Damn. Okay. Kinda raised the stakes a bit but point taken.

(02-06-2015 09:02 AM)Tribal Wrote:  

(02-06-2015 08:43 AM)Paulbintheburg Wrote:  

(02-06-2015 08:40 AM)Tribal Wrote:  This all goes away if we beat UNCW, as we should. It's not like losing to CoC sent us to the bottom of the CAA in one fell swoop. The chicken little mentality is useless so bury the game and keep fighting for the prize.

What he said.

If this fanbase was in charge of taking Omaha Beach, the result would be that almost all of Europe would recognize Hitler's birthday as a national holiday.

Damn. Okay. Kinda raised the stakes a bit but point taken.

The real problem with this loss is long range.
We were being talked about as a potential #13 seed if we won the CAA. That would give us a reasonable opponent (read that NOT Kentucky) and a potentially winnable game. Now, after a second loss to a 300+ RPI team we would potentially fall to a 15 or, heaven forbid, a 16 seed, should we finally make it. This is a HUGE difference and a reason why every game does matter, some more than others.

The committees have tended to respect the CAA over the years. I don't think there should be any fear of a 16-seed for the league champ this year unless it's a total shocker (I.E. NOT W&M, Northeastern or UNCW).

12/13 seed definitely seems like a stretch, however, unless you guys basically win out.

Fortunately I don't think the committee has time to look over the resume of every AQ team, so they go based off of RPI. Playing Charleston was going to hurt our RPI anyway, and losing to them drops us a few spots, but is not the end of the world. We're still top-100 and if we keep playing at a high level and keep winning we'll be okay.

(02-06-2015 10:25 AM)hktribefan Wrote:  Fortunately I don't think the committee has time to look over the resume of every AQ team, so they go based off of RPI.

Not altogether true. Each committee member is assigned 3-4 conferences to be "experts" for. The committee member has to attend or watch as many games as possible. To the committee, RPI is a handy tool but the eye test weighs pretty heavily also, even for the conference champ. Sometimes that's how mistakes happen too in seeding for AQ's and at-large bids, of course. If the loudest person in the room advocates for a particular team from his conference, sometimes that team gets a more favorable seed than another team.

The "expert" for the CAA definitely notices the strong level of overall play in the league, and the conference has been rewarded in the past for that.

(02-06-2015 10:25 AM)hktribefan Wrote:  Fortunately I don't think the committee has time to look over the resume of every AQ team, so they go based off of RPI. Playing Charleston was going to hurt our RPI anyway, and losing to them drops us a few spots, but is not the end of the world. We're still top-100 and if we keep playing at a high level and keep winning we'll be okay.

This is pretty much my thought. I'm sure that there will be four worse AQs than the CAA champion (as long as it's NE, UNCW, or the Good Guys) to take those 16-seeds. Most likely we'd be looking at the borderline between a 14 and 15 seed. The colonial is currently 19th out of 32 conferences.

In the bottom four conferences by RPI:

The predicted top SWAC team is Texas Southern around 143 (and nobody else is predicted higher than 218).

In the MEAC it is NC Central around 121.

In the WAC it's New Mexico State around 130.

In the Atlantic Sun it's FGCU around 126.

And this assumes that the projected top-rated team wins each of these conferences. I'm not overly concerned with getting saddled with a 16-seed.

(02-06-2015 08:40 AM)Tribal Wrote:  This all goes away if we beat UNCW, as we should. It's not like losing to CoC sent us to the bottom of the CAA in one fell swoop. The chicken little mentality is useless so bury the game and keep fighting for the prize.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Agree totally! I was skeptical of the Tribes chances of winning all three of these away games; but, if we were going to lose one, I would prefer we lose to CofC rather than lose to JMU or UNCW.

CofC had its best shooting night of the year and W&M had it's worst shooting night of the year in this game. Sometimes players/teams are hot; and sometimes the same players/teams are cold - it happens.

This was not a "bad loss"; this was an unexpected loss and I believe the Tribe will rebound at UNCW on Saturday.

(02-06-2015 10:34 AM)TribeNiner Wrote:  

(02-06-2015 10:25 AM)hktribefan Wrote:  Fortunately I don't think the committee has time to look over the resume of every AQ team, so they go based off of RPI. Playing Charleston was going to hurt our RPI anyway, and losing to them drops us a few spots, but is not the end of the world. We're still top-100 and if we keep playing at a high level and keep winning we'll be okay.

This is pretty much my thought. I'm sure that there will be four worse AQs than the CAA champion (as long as it's NE, UNCW, or the Good Guys) to take those 16-seeds. Most likely we'd be looking at the borderline between a 14 and 15 seed. The colonial is currently 19th out of 32 conferences.

In the bottom four conferences by RPI:

The predicted top SWAC team is Texas Southern around 143 (and nobody else is predicted higher than 218).

In the MEAC it is NC Central around 121.

In the WAC it's New Mexico State around 130.

In the Atlantic Sun it's FGCU around 126.

And this assumes that the projected top-rated team wins each of these conferences. I'm not overly concerned with getting saddled with a 16-seed.

Don't forget there are 6 16 seeds because of two play in games. I still think we're clear of a 16 seed and probably a 15 seed as well. If we win out we are looking at 13, a loss or two and probably a 14.

(02-06-2015 11:01 AM)hktribefan Wrote:  

(02-06-2015 10:34 AM)TribeNiner Wrote:  

(02-06-2015 10:25 AM)hktribefan Wrote:  Fortunately I don't think the committee has time to look over the resume of every AQ team, so they go based off of RPI. Playing Charleston was going to hurt our RPI anyway, and losing to them drops us a few spots, but is not the end of the world. We're still top-100 and if we keep playing at a high level and keep winning we'll be okay.

This is pretty much my thought. I'm sure that there will be four worse AQs than the CAA champion (as long as it's NE, UNCW, or the Good Guys) to take those 16-seeds. Most likely we'd be looking at the borderline between a 14 and 15 seed. The colonial is currently 19th out of 32 conferences.

In the bottom four conferences by RPI:

The predicted top SWAC team is Texas Southern around 143 (and nobody else is predicted higher than 218).

In the MEAC it is NC Central around 121.

In the WAC it's New Mexico State around 130.

In the Atlantic Sun it's FGCU around 126.

And this assumes that the projected top-rated team wins each of these conferences. I'm not overly concerned with getting saddled with a 16-seed.

Don't forget there are 6 16 seeds because of two play in games. I still think we're clear of a 16 seed and probably a 15 seed as well. If we win out we are looking at 13, a loss or two and probably a 14.

Ah, good point- I tend to forget these games since the seeding in these games isn't technically set in stone. It's the lowest four AQ teams and the lowest four at-large teams that do it. So it's always going to have a a couple of 16 seed play-ins, at the minimum.

We are worried about seeds? I'll focus my angst on making the NCAA's and winning the conference, in that order.

(02-06-2015 01:27 PM)Mrs. Got Ribe Wrote:  We are worried about seeds? I'll focus my angst on making the NCAA's and winning the conference, in that order.

+1,000,000

Agree completely.

Charleston is not a good team, but they aren't quite as bad as their 2-9 record either. Prior to winning this one, they had lost the last 5 games by a total of 13 points. I still didn't expect the win though.

(02-06-2015 01:35 PM)WM_Destro Wrote:  

(02-06-2015 01:27 PM)Mrs. Got Ribe Wrote:  We are worried about seeds? I'll focus my angst on making the NCAA's and winning the conference, in that order.

+1,000,000

Agree completely.

I have been leaving the CAA tournament in utter disappointment for decades at this point.. Seeing the mere mention of seeds on these boards makes me want to paraphrase coach Jim Mora.

Seeds? You're talking about seeds?

(02-06-2015 01:27 PM)Mrs. Got Ribe Wrote:  We are worried about seeds? I'll focus my angst on making the NCAA's and winning the conference, in that order.

I am like Kevin Costner in "Tin Cup" I always go for it...and miss...to the extent that I wake up surrounded by empty Tequila bottles and am not sure where or who I am, but I digress. If you don't have a "Go for It" mentality, then you may never get it.

No I haven't started drinking yet.

(02-06-2015 01:35 PM)WM_Destro Wrote:  

(02-06-2015 01:27 PM)Mrs. Got Ribe Wrote:  We are worried about seeds? I'll focus my angst on making the NCAA's and winning the conference, in that order.

+1,000,000

Agree completely.

Absolutely. No reason to even care about the bracket at all until March 10th if we are fortunate enough.

Just stay steady and win tonight and quiet their sellout crowd; after tonight team has four
home games among final six games.

Despite just one day's rest I look for our good guys to respond with a great game.

My biggest concern is that Marcus has looked tired past few games and especially against CofC;
he's been playing 39 minutes a game past month. Looked very tired in second half the other evening.

Cannot believe people here are talking about NCAA seeds. The only seed anyone should be discussing is our CAA tourney seed, which could be anything between 1 and 4. If you don't think WM could be seeded that low in Bsltimore, you weren't watching the CofC game.