RE: Things to Know about Any Future Realignment
H1 nailed it for the reasons Texas might leave the B12. Money is not an issue with Texas. Texas will leave the B12 if they feel they do not get the national exposure they covet. Exposure is the name of the game for Texas. Scheduling flexibility is all about exposure since it allows them to schedule games in areas they want more exposure or with schools that will get games in the national spotlight. They are also less than thrilled with the academic clout of the current conference, but that is a minor consideration. They see themselves (rightly so) as a national, even international brand and need exposure to maintain that brand.
The whole reason the B12 came into being in the first place was the SWC and Big 8 were too regional (lack of exposure) and were not seen as viable by the schools going forward. Schools in both were in talks with the PAC, B1G, and SEC before the B12 was formed because of this lack of viability. The old B12 fixed that, but the current B12 has shrunk back into a near regional conference. Some comparisons:
Original B12 (12 members): 3 national FB powers (UT, OU, NU), 7 AAU (UT, KU, ISU, MU, CU, NU, A&M), 8 state flagships (UT, KU, OU, MU, NU, CU, A&M - since TX is so large and A&M is a flagship level uni in a massive state)), 6 schools with MNC claims (UT, OU, NU, A&M, CU, even MU - they can claim a title or 2 using the loose standards many schools use), pop. of 50M living in its footprint.
Current B12 (10 members): 2 national FB powers (UT, OU), 3 AAU (UT, KU, ISU), 4 state flagships (UT, KU, OU, WVU), 3 schools with MNC claims (UT, OU, TCU), pop. 38M living in it's footprint (for comparison the old SWC 30M, old B8 22M).
I loved the old Big 8 and the original B12, but the current B12 is a shadow of the original. Texas, KU, and OU see that too. All the B12 schools that were attractive to other conferences and had no political hurdles to leaving (i.e. little brothers who might be relegated to the G5) left. UT, OU, and KU are hoping that the ACC gets raided so they get to vulture the remains, or some P5 schools in the PAC, SEC, or B1G get disgruntled and become available (Arkansas, LSU, and NU are mentioned on B12 forums often, but good luck with that happening). If that does not happen and the B12 struggles to get the exposure Texas and OU crave, then the B12 will cease to exist.
I don't think power will be a problem because Texas is pretty smart. They will get their power before they come to a conference. They will negotiate it all before they make a move. Whether that is the LHN getting some kind of conference network exemption or work around, multiple, handpicked B12 and/or TX partners coming along, partial independence, etc., they will get what they want because they bring the dollars with them to any conference they choose and most schools, unlike UT (and a few others), need the extra cash that comes with sharing a conference with Texas. Texas is not the demon they have been made out to be by the schools that left. Mostly they were a convenient scapegoat to sell the move to their fan bases and be an excuse for leaving behind many long term relationships from the B8 and SWC days. Schools move because the move is seen as benefiting the university, not because they did not like one school they shared a conference with, though that is a nice incidental bonus to leave that school behind I guess.
I think Texas would prefer to keep the B12 together if possible, but only if it can add some P5 schools to the mix (i.e. ACC gets raided and FSU and friends are available). If it becomes obvious the B12 can't expand with schools that Texas views as it's peers, both academically and athletically, and exposure continues to be a problem, the Longhorns will make a move.
IMO, it's all academic on the Texas part anyway. The school that will kill the B12 someday is OU. They have been seriously talking with the PAC, B1G and SEC for the last 5 years or so (Texas has talked too, but more on a lets see my options level) and are the most unhappy with the current B12. Their ties to OSU are the only reason they are still a B12 member since so far no conference has been willing to take just OU/OSU together. Once Boren is no longer OU president then they might be able to leave OSU behind if they want. Boren protects OSU because he was a U.S. senator from OK and he has a building named after him on the OSU campus. He is OK first, then OU. The next president is likely to be OU first, OK second.
(This post was last modified: 01-21-2015 01:40 AM by jhawkmvp.)
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