RE: What Should The SEC Do Now With Regards to the Big 12?
I think the only B12 schools in panic mode are the smaller schools, and to be honest they are going to be in that mode (to varying degrees), until the B12 makes a move that stabilizes it permanently. Texas and OU are not worried about TCU and Baylor being left out. They feel (and probably correctly) that if it was one of them, instead of TCU or Baylor, they are in the playoff. Until one of them gets left out, I don't think they are very concerned about the other schools being left out. The bulk of the playoff money is given based on just being a member of the P5 club so there are not heavy ramifications for being left out.
Personally, I believe the B12 is primarily making expansion noise to get what they want as far as deregulation of how conferences determine their champion, which is in all conferences best interests (see semi-finals, pods, 3 division format, etc), or a lesser possibility is to get the other power conferences to take in all or most (at least 8) of the B12 schools, if it disbands. The B12 for the most part is an uneasy alliance. There is not much love there any longer. It has become the small regional conference it was created to prevent. The national exposure for programs like OU and Texas (due to 2-3 games on the LHN) is lacking. Too many close, long existing ties have been severed with NU, MU, A&M and CU leaving. Even OU seems to be chafing at Texas lately. If all schools can find a good home, Texas and OU are happy with where they move, then I don't think the B12 would fight too hard to survive. The other B12 schools just want a permanent, stable, power conference home. Expanding with lesser programs will just lead to the more valuable programs leaving down the line, which would decrease the conference's value more than the additions would increase it. Just look at the Big East and it's various defections over the years.
The winter meetings about the new regulations for the P5 would be a perfect time and cover to talk about further consolidation. The B1G would definitely like to have 16 schools when it comes time for them to bid out their T1. The SEC hates it's current, unbalanced scheduling at 14 and I think would love to be the pioneer of conference semis. The PAC covets CST schools, especially in Texas, and more possible households for their network, might help them with some of their carriage issues. The ACC would like to see the B12 die as that likely cements their long-term survival and it might force ND to join in full as a champs-only model is likely adopted for the playoff. The B12 schools want permanent stability (even OU wants this, look at the talks they have had with everyone), which is something the B12 can't provide at this time. If the B12 is talking up expansion to get all their schools placed in a P5 conference something could happen this winter. It also gets rid of the committee issue and allows a champs only model and makes the conference CG and possible semi's worth much more to conferences as these become defacto play-off games themselves.
The SEC can only currently end the B12 with the help of at least one other conference (likely the ACC and/or B1G) as the GoR would hinder any small number of schools defecting the B12, unless there is an unknown out somewhere, for the near future. The easiest way, if the SEC was trying to beat the B1G to the punch (instead of working with the B1G) and limit B1G expansion opportunities into the south, would be to partner with the ACC. We have discussed this scenario a few times in the past. There are lots of ways this could be done.
(This post was last modified: 12-19-2014 01:31 AM by jhawkmvp.)
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