(11-09-2014 08:37 PM)BftEagle Wrote:  

(11-08-2014 10:33 PM)GaSoEagle Wrote:  I will confine this to non-transition teams since I still do not believe Ga. Southern (or even App. St.) will go bowling UNLESS there are less than 76 eligible teams. I am also assuming Louisiana will complete their win over NMSU.

Eligible teams:
Arkansas St. and Louisiana (pretty much those 2 are locks for bowls)

Still can become eligible:
South Alabama
Texas St.
ULM

Everyone else is out of it.

I do not believe ULM will win their last 3 to get to 6-6 so they are on life-support.

That leaves the 3rd spot down to South Alabama or Texas St. I think whoever wins that game next Saturday to get to 6 wins will have the upper hand. If South Alabama loses to go to 5-5 they would have to beat either South Carolina or Navy to get to 6 and right now that probably looks unlikely. Texas St. if they lose still have Arkansas St. and Ga. State to play. Ga. State certainly looks like a win so a loss to South Alabama and a win over Ga. State gets them to 6 wins.

My guess is if Texas St. wins over South Alabama they are the 3rd Sun Belt team bowling this year. If South Alabama beats Texas St. it will probably come down to both of them finishing 6-6 and we will see which one gets picked.

(11-09-2014 07:02 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 06:51 PM)CajunFanatico Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 06:04 PM)BRtransplant Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 05:18 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  Arkansas will make absolutely 100% sure that any bowl they accept a bid to will not be inviting Arkansas State. That bowl match up will never happen. They would sit at home before doing that. The only way it could happen is in a playoff final because that is the only way it would be unavoidable.

That's preposterous of them!

Indeed. It would be about as stupid as LaTech staying at home for the holidays just to avoid playing ULM.

It's the norm here.

When it looked like UA and UALR were going to meet in the NIT they announced that their team was too exhausted after a long season and would not participate in post-season for that reason.

God forbid that they should have to actually play you, maybe even lose to to you, and admit that your program is relevant. We see the same with the arrogant UGA crowd, but at least they will play us.

In 2005 they decided to let their Women's team play ASU in the WNIT, thinking no one would notice. ASU bid a ton of cash and got to host the game, sold out all 11K tickets in a few hours, and Arkansas walked into a loud, and hostile atmosphere. They walked out with a double digit loss, and forever angry with us for some of the mean things we said about them.

A few years ago, it looked as if they would play UALR in the WNIT. I don't have the full story, but the WNIT promised regional matchups for everyone. The understanding I had is that Arkansas slid the WNIT a wad of cash under the table in exchange for keeping UALR away from them. Somehow the Regional based bracket gets drawn up, and Arkansas is playing Memphis, and UALR is playing at Pacific in a bracket with 7 California Schools and UALR.

(11-09-2014 09:07 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 08:37 PM)BftEagle Wrote:  

(11-08-2014 10:33 PM)GaSoEagle Wrote:  I will confine this to non-transition teams since I still do not believe Ga. Southern (or even App. St.) will go bowling UNLESS there are less than 76 eligible teams. I am also assuming Louisiana will complete their win over NMSU.

Eligible teams:
Arkansas St. and Louisiana (pretty much those 2 are locks for bowls)

Still can become eligible:
South Alabama
Texas St.
ULM

Everyone else is out of it.

I do not believe ULM will win their last 3 to get to 6-6 so they are on life-support.

That leaves the 3rd spot down to South Alabama or Texas St. I think whoever wins that game next Saturday to get to 6 wins will have the upper hand. If South Alabama loses to go to 5-5 they would have to beat either South Carolina or Navy to get to 6 and right now that probably looks unlikely. Texas St. if they lose still have Arkansas St. and Ga. State to play. Ga. State certainly looks like a win so a loss to South Alabama and a win over Ga. State gets them to 6 wins.

My guess is if Texas St. wins over South Alabama they are the 3rd Sun Belt team bowling this year. If South Alabama beats Texas St. it will probably come down to both of them finishing 6-6 and we will see which one gets picked.

(11-09-2014 07:02 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 06:51 PM)CajunFanatico Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 06:04 PM)BRtransplant Wrote:  That's preposterous of them!

Indeed. It would be about as stupid as LaTech staying at home for the holidays just to avoid playing ULM.

It's the norm here.

When it looked like UA and UALR were going to meet in the NIT they announced that their team was too exhausted after a long season and would not participate in post-season for that reason.

God forbid that they should have to actually play you, maybe even lose to to you, and admit that your program is relevant. We see the same with the arrogant UGA crowd, but at least they will play us.

In 2005 they decided to let their Women's team play ASU in the WNIT, thinking no one would notice. ASU bid a ton of cash and got to host the game, sold out all 11K tickets in a few hours, and Arkansas walked into a loud, and hostile atmosphere. They walked out with a double digit loss, and forever angry with us for some of the mean things we said about them.

A few years ago, it looked as if they would play UALR in the WNIT. I don't have the full story, but the WNIT promised regional matchups for everyone. The understanding I had is that Arkansas slid the WNIT a wad of cash under the table in exchange for keeping UALR away from them. Somehow the Regional based bracket gets drawn up, and Arkansas is playing Memphis, and UALR is playing at Pacific in a bracket with 7 California Schools and UALR.

Well, in all honesty, it's just a short drive from Little Rock to the West Coast.

(11-09-2014 09:10 PM)CajunFanatico Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 09:07 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 08:37 PM)BftEagle Wrote:  

(11-08-2014 10:33 PM)GaSoEagle Wrote:  I will confine this to non-transition teams since I still do not believe Ga. Southern (or even App. St.) will go bowling UNLESS there are less than 76 eligible teams. I am also assuming Louisiana will complete their win over NMSU.

Eligible teams:
Arkansas St. and Louisiana (pretty much those 2 are locks for bowls)

Still can become eligible:
South Alabama
Texas St.
ULM

Everyone else is out of it.

I do not believe ULM will win their last 3 to get to 6-6 so they are on life-support.

That leaves the 3rd spot down to South Alabama or Texas St. I think whoever wins that game next Saturday to get to 6 wins will have the upper hand. If South Alabama loses to go to 5-5 they would have to beat either South Carolina or Navy to get to 6 and right now that probably looks unlikely. Texas St. if they lose still have Arkansas St. and Ga. State to play. Ga. State certainly looks like a win so a loss to South Alabama and a win over Ga. State gets them to 6 wins.

My guess is if Texas St. wins over South Alabama they are the 3rd Sun Belt team bowling this year. If South Alabama beats Texas St. it will probably come down to both of them finishing 6-6 and we will see which one gets picked.

(11-09-2014 07:02 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 06:51 PM)CajunFanatico Wrote:  Indeed. It would be about as stupid as LaTech staying at home for the holidays just to avoid playing ULM.

It's the norm here.

When it looked like UA and UALR were going to meet in the NIT they announced that their team was too exhausted after a long season and would not participate in post-season for that reason.

God forbid that they should have to actually play you, maybe even lose to to you, and admit that your program is relevant. We see the same with the arrogant UGA crowd, but at least they will play us.

In 2005 they decided to let their Women's team play ASU in the WNIT, thinking no one would notice. ASU bid a ton of cash and got to host the game, sold out all 11K tickets in a few hours, and Arkansas walked into a loud, and hostile atmosphere. They walked out with a double digit loss, and forever angry with us for some of the mean things we said about them.

A few years ago, it looked as if they would play UALR in the WNIT. I don't have the full story, but the WNIT promised regional matchups for everyone. The understanding I had is that Arkansas slid the WNIT a wad of cash under the table in exchange for keeping UALR away from them. Somehow the Regional based bracket gets drawn up, and Arkansas is playing Memphis, and UALR is playing at Pacific in a bracket with 7 California Schools and UALR.

Well, in all honesty, it's just a short drive from Little Rock to the West Coast.

Yep, straight shot down I-40. If you could drive about 300mph, you
'd probably make it in a few hours.

The funny thing about Arkansas is they do it in Olympic Sports as well. Their baseball team was widely made fun of last year for playing 7 games against SWAC schools OOC, almost cost them an NCAA bid. The funny part is that, if there was no policy, they could have played Arkansas State, Central Arkansas, and UALR and had 4-6 games against teams in the RPI top 120 last season.

(11-09-2014 09:07 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  A few years ago, it looked as if they would play UALR in the WNIT. I don't have the full story, but the WNIT promised regional matchups for everyone. The understanding I had is that Arkansas slid the WNIT a wad of cash under the table in exchange for keeping UALR away from them. Somehow the Regional based bracket gets drawn up, and Arkansas is playing Memphis, and UALR is playing at Pacific in a bracket with 7 California Schools and UALR.

I forgot all about that one.

24 teams so far with 7 or more losses

Ball State still has to play Bowling Green, so that should strike another one from the MAC. Buffalo is also at 3-6 and still has to play Akron (4-5), so that should be another casualty for the MAC. (26)

Arkansas has to play Ole Miss, LSU, and Missouri, which will claim another victim from the SEC. It looks like the loser of Kentucky/Tennessee is probably done, unless if Kentucky can upset Louisville or Tennessee upsets Missouri. South Carolina also really needs to beat Florida to keep their bowl hopes alive. The SEC will likely only have 10 eligible, possibly 11 if South Carolina can two games. (28-29)

All four Mountain West teams with six losses have conference games against significantly better opponents remaining on their schedule, some of which are against Colorado State, Boise State, or Nevada. This should knockout four more MW teams. (32-33)

Oregon State has to play both Oregon and Arizona State, so that should eliminate another Pac 12 team.

C-USA should lose at least two more teams as UNT has to play UTEP, and ODU has to play Louisiana Tech. (33-34)

Army will not win out - they might not even get past WKU, much less WKU and Navy. (34-35)

Texas Tech has to play Baylor. Kansas has to play TCU. Even 5-4 Oklahoma State may not win any of its three remaining games, and if they beat 5-5 Texas, Texas likely finishes at 5-7 unless if they upset TCU. (37-38).

The Big 10 will lose at least Northwestern and Indiana, and probably Michigan as well (39-41).

Both South Florida and Tulane have to play Memphis, so that should be two more from the American (41-43).

Depending on who beats whom, the ACC could lose all 5 teams that haven't made it to six wins, but I think 3-4 are more likely. (44-48)

The Belt's bowl situation will improve greatly if South Alabama beats South Carolina and Navy, especially since Georgia Southern also plays Navy. The Sun Belt also needs Syracuse to win some more games, as they can inflict the most damage on the ACC's bowl hopes. BYU, Stanford, and Southern Cal all beating Cal would also be helpful.

(11-09-2014 10:56 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  24 teams so far with 7 or more losses

Ball State still has to play Bowling Green, so that should strike another one from the MAC. Buffalo is also at 3-6 and still has to play Akron (4-5), so that should be another casualty for the MAC. (26)

Arkansas has to play Ole Miss, LSU, and Missouri, which will claim another victim from the SEC. It looks like the loser of Kentucky/Tennessee is probably done, unless if Kentucky can upset Louisville or Tennessee upsets Missouri. South Carolina also really needs to beat Florida to keep their bowl hopes alive. The SEC will likely only have 10 eligible, possibly 11 if South Carolina can two games. (28-29)

All four Mountain West teams with six losses have conference games against significantly better opponents remaining on their schedule, some of which are against Colorado State, Boise State, or Nevada. This should knockout four more MW teams. (32-33)

Oregon State has to play both Oregon and Arizona State, so that should eliminate another Pac 12 team.

C-USA should lose at least two more teams as UNT has to play UTEP, and ODU has to play Louisiana Tech. (33-34)

Army will not win out - they might not even get past WKU, much less WKU and Navy. (34-35)

Texas Tech has to play Baylor. Kansas has to play TCU. Even 5-4 Oklahoma State may not win any of its three remaining games, and if they beat 5-5 Texas, Texas likely finishes at 5-7 unless if they upset TCU. (37-38).

The Big 10 will lose at least Northwestern and Indiana, and probably Michigan as well (39-41).

Both South Florida and Tulane have to play Memphis, so that should be two more from the American (41-43).

Depending on who beats whom, the ACC could lose all 5 teams that haven't made it to six wins, but I think 3-4 are more likely. (44-48)

The Belt's bowl situation will improve greatly if South Alabama beats South Carolina and Navy, especially since Georgia Southern also plays Navy. The Sun Belt also needs Syracuse to win some more games, as they can inflict the most damage on the ACC's bowl hopes. BYU, Stanford, and Southern Cal all beating Cal would also be helpful.

As much as I'd like to see one of our conference brethren beat a team from the SEC, I don't see SA having a chance at South Carolina. I haven't seen Navy play this year, but if we play like we played Sat we won't beat them either, and not meaning to take anything away from TxState's efforts against us.

Massey now showing 77 projected teams reaching 6 wins. Not counting Georgia Southern.

Looks like Independence Bowl is out this year. AAC should back that up assuming ECU doesn't make an access bowl. Lots of strange scenarios left in the ACC, but they probably lose two or three. Northwestern should be out after screwing the pooch against Michigan.

Best scenario for the Belt this week is Indiana winning at Rutgers and Wake beating NC State. If Rutgers loses to Indiana, I don't think they hit 6 wins judging by their remaining games, and I don't think Indiana will either regardless. Since Wake is already Bowl ineligible, every win they get is great. Everyone should also root for LSU to beat Arkansas...but you should root against Arkansas any day just because.

Just to clarify something:

If Texas State beats South Alabama, and the Jaguars don't upset South Carolina or Navy (Will be heavy underdogs in both) then by rule, AState, Texas State, and the Cajuns must go to an SBC tied bowl. No one can move for a non league tied bowl (That's not an access bowl) without first getting the Sun Belt Bowl they would fill to agree to accept an OOC team instead. (Good Luck with that)

If we don't have 76 eligible teams and Georgia Southern enters the fray, they would be eligible for selection to an SBC Bowl, which would send one of the other SBC teams to a non tied bowl. They would not be eligible to play another SBC team in a Bowl unless the opposing conferences agreed to Sacrifice their own contracted spot...which is not happening.

Air Force is almost a lock to go to New Orleans as the MWC rep.
Winner of the MAC Title game automatically goes to Go Daddy.
MAC rep for Camelia is unclear because they don't have a bowl pecking order really. One can assume it would likely be a semi decent opponent though, as the MAC generally sends its poor traveling teams to the far off bowls.

Everyone is assuming Marshall is in line to get the access bid. I won't be surprised if it's Colorado State if they win out. If that happens, MWC can't fill the New Orleans slot.

I'm thinking Independence, Birmingham, St. Petersburg and Armed Forces may have open slots.

Of course, all that will depend on how many access bowl bids each conference gets. And, which conferences are represented in the semi finals.

Armed Forces is contracted to Army. That one will be open for sure.

UL and Arkansas State are eligible. Either USA or Texas State gets bowl eligibility this week. If USA wins that one, then TxSt gets eligible by beating Georgia State.

I'm standing by my prediction that Georgia Southern will wind up bowling. As of today, I'm projecting 75 teams being bowl eligible. I don't see anyone losing a conference championship game to go 6-7. I also don't see a six win team with two FCS victories. Nor do I see a 6-7 team with Hawai'i on the schedule.

That would give the last slot to Georgia Southern.

(11-10-2014 12:18 AM)BirdofParadise Wrote:  Everyone is assuming Marshall is in line to get the access bid. I won't be surprised if it's Colorado State if they win out. If that happens, MWC can't fill the New Orleans slot.

I'm thinking Independence, Birmingham, St. Petersburg and Armed Forces may have open slots.

Of course, all that will depend on how many access bowl bids each conference gets. And, which conferences are represented in the semi finals.

Armed Forces is contracted to Army. That one will be open for sure.

UL and Arkansas State are eligible. Either USA or Texas State gets bowl eligibility this week. If USA wins that one, then TxSt gets eligible by beating Georgia State.

I'm standing by my prediction that Georgia Southern will wind up bowling. As of today, I'm projecting 75 teams being bowl eligible. I don't see anyone losing a conference championship game to go 6-7. I also don't see a six win team with two FCS victories. Nor do I see a 6-7 team with Hawai'i on the schedule.

That would give the last slot to Georgia Southern.

Colorado State will have a mountain to climb because they won't be playing for the Mountain West championship since their lone loss is to Boise State. At some point, the playoff committee will have to put a G5 team in their top 25, even if it's only to show who they plan to put in the top tier bowl.

Fresno State's last two games are at Nevada and vs. Hawaii. If they win those two and San Diego State loses any one of their last three (@ Boise, vs. Air Force & San Jose State), Fresno wins the West division with a 5-3, 6-6 record.

One awkward point here is the Amy and Navy game may very well end determining bowl eligibility for one of those teams, and that is game is not played until Dec 13th.

Army is out with one more loss, and must travel to Western Kentucky this week in a virtual bowl elimination game. If Army wins, they head into the Navy game needing a win to be bowl eligible. The same happens to Navy if they lose to Georgia Southern this week, and then beat South Alabama to end the year. If either case comes to be, then the armed forces and Poinsettia bowls would have to issue Conditional invites to another team that could be revoked should Navy or Army reach eligibility. With Poinsettia scheduled just 10 days after the Army/Navy game...that could be problematic.

(11-10-2014 09:13 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  One awkward point here is the Amy and Navy game may very well end determining bowl eligibility for one of those teams, and that is game is not played until Dec 13th.

Army is out with one more loss, and must travel to Western Kentucky this week in a virtual bowl elimination game. If Army wins, they head into the Navy game needing a win to be bowl eligible. The same happens to Navy if they lose to Georgia Southern this week, and then beat South Alabama to end the year. If either case comes to be, then the armed forces and Poinsettia bowls would have to issue Conditional invites to another team that could be revoked should Navy or Army reach eligibility. With Poinsettia scheduled just 10 days after the Army/Navy game...that could be problematic.

Yeah, that's the thing about there being so many scenarios left to determine bowl eligibility. I don't genuinely believe Fresno State will beat Nevada any more than I think Army will beat Western Kentucky. There will be a lot of doors closed this weekend that will make the picture clearer.

(11-10-2014 10:07 AM)lcitsh Wrote:  

(11-10-2014 09:13 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  One awkward point here is the Amy and Navy game may very well end determining bowl eligibility for one of those teams, and that is game is not played until Dec 13th.

Army is out with one more loss, and must travel to Western Kentucky this week in a virtual bowl elimination game. If Army wins, they head into the Navy game needing a win to be bowl eligible. The same happens to Navy if they lose to Georgia Southern this week, and then beat South Alabama to end the year. If either case comes to be, then the armed forces and Poinsettia bowls would have to issue Conditional invites to another team that could be revoked should Navy or Army reach eligibility. With Poinsettia scheduled just 10 days after the Army/Navy game...that could be problematic.

Yeah, that's the thing about there being so many scenarios left to determine bowl eligibility. I don't genuinely believe Fresno State will beat Nevada any more than I think Army will beat Western Kentucky. There will be a lot of doors closed this weekend that will make the picture clearer.

Example Monroe's door gets shut this weekend.