While no spots have been officially secured yet, we're getting very close. Two conferences (Patriot and SoCon) can be decided next week. Two more conferences (Big Sky and Southland) are completely jammed at the top. In addition, a number of teams have unofficially secured at least an At-Large spot – barring monumental collapses.


From a JMU Perspective...
A huge win for JMU this week puts us that much closer to the playoffs. If JMU wins 2 of the next 3 games, we'll finish at 8-4 and will almost certainly get at least an At-Large. One of those wins should come against Elon in the last week. That leaves one more from against either Stony Brook or Richmond. Stony Brook comes first. It's hard to tell what kind of team they are: their 3 CAA wins are against three of the worst teams in the conference...but they also played W&M and UNH very close in losses. They barely lost to both a seemingly strong NEC team in Bryant and also to I-A UConn. They've had a week off to rest up knowing that one more loss will effectively end their season.


By the Numbers (105 total teams)...

Teams Alive for any Playoff spot:
10/26 – 86
11/2 – 71

Teams Alive for an At-Large spot:
10/26 – 60
11/2 – 53

Teams that have reached 7 wins (without clinching a conference):
10/26 – 6
11/2 – 10


Here's the overall playoff eligibility list. The number in parenthesis after a team is how many more losses they can have before they can't reach 7 wins. Teams that are in RED cannot reach 7 wins and therefore must win their conference AQ. When a team reaches 7 wins, I will list them in GREEN. When a team clinches an AQ spot, I will list them in BLUE.

CAA (10 Teams Alive)
Villanova – 7 wins
UNH – 7 wins
Richmond – 7 wins
JMU (2)
Albany (2)
W&M (1)
Delaware (1)
Towson (0)
Stony Brook
Maine

Big Sky (8 Teams Alive)
Cal Poly (2)
EWU (2)
Montana State (1)
Montana (1)
Northern Arizona (1)
Idaho State (0)
Southern Utah
Portland State

Big South (6 Teams Alive)
Coastal Carolina – 9 wins
Monmouth (1)
Liberty (1)
Charleston Southern (0)
Gardner-Webb
Presbyterian

MEAC (6 Teams Alive)
Bethune-Cookman (2)
NC A&T (2)
SC State (1)
Morgan State (0)
Norfolk State (0)
NC Central

MVC (8 Teams Alive)
ND State – 9 wins
Illinois State – 7 wins
Youngstown State – 7 wins
Indiana State (2)
No. Iowa (1)
SD State (0)
So. Illinois (0)
Missouri State (0) – Cannot win AQ


NEC (5 Teams Alive)
Bryant (2)
Sacred Heart (1)
Duquesne
Wagner
Robert Morris

OVC (3 Teams Alive)
EKU – 8 wins
Jacksonville State (2)
E. Illinois (0)

Patriot League (5 Teams Alive)
Fordham – 8 Wins
Bucknell – 7 wins
Colgate (0)
Lehigh
Holy Cross

Pioneer League (7 Teams Alive)
Dayton (2)
San Diego (2)
Jacksonville (1)
Campbell
Drake
Marist
Stetson

SoCon (4 Teams Alive)
Chatty (2)
W. Carolina (0)
Samford
Wofford

Southland (7 Teams Alive)
SE Louisiana (2)
Stephen F. Austin (1)
Sam Houston State (1)
McNeese State (1)
Central Ark. (0)
NW State (0)
Lamar (0)


Must Win Out to reach 7 wins:
Towson
Idaho State
Charleston Southern
Morgan State
Norfolk State
SD State
Missouri State
So. Illinois
E. Illinois
Colgate
W. Carolina
Central Ark.
NW State
Lamar


Completely Eliminated from the Playoffs (Teams in RED were eliminated this week)
Savannah State (too dumb for postseason)
Florida A&M (too dumb for postseason)
StFU (too dumb for postseason)
Abilene Christian (transition to D1)
Incarnate Word (transition to D1)
URI
Elon
UC Davis
Northern Colorado
Weber State
Sac State
North Dakota
Howard
Delaware State
Hampton
South Dakota
W. Illinois
Cent. Conn. State
Tenn. State
Tenn.-Martin
Murray State
Tenn. Tech
SE Missouri State
Austin Peay
Georgetown
Lafayette
Valparaiso
Davidson
Butler
Morehead State
VMI
Mercer
Citadel
Furman
Nichols State
Houston Baptist

Going for Perfection (no losses of any type)
Coastal Carolina
Harvard
NDSU

Race to the Bottom (an 0-fer season)
Weber State
URI
Columbia
Cornell
Savannah State
Nicholls State


Conference Analysis

CAA – Two teams (UNH and Richmond) reach the important 7-win mark while two were completely knocked out of playoff contention (URI and Elon). With UNH winning and Villanova losing, UNH is now by themselves in 1st place. UNH has only one tough game left (Delaware), so the chances are strong that they will win the AQ. It's very likely that 4-5 teams will make it from the CAA again this year, so most teams have a lot to fight for. Next week, the big games will be JMU-Stony Brook and Delaware-Albany.

Big Sky – With Montana State losing to Cal Poly this weekend, there is now a 6-way tie for 1st place (going by conference losses). EWU and Cal Poly stand at 5-1 while the other four teams sit at 4-1, but there really is too much uncertainty to figure anything out here. Of note, even though there all of these 1st place teams, none of them have reached 7 wins – and only 2 of them have even reached 6 wins. It's safe to say that there will be no margin of error for this conference. Finally, SUU and Portland State are technically still alive, but that won't last. There are two games involving pairs of 1st place teams next week: Montana at EWU and Cal Poly at Idaho State.

Big South – All teams are technically alive for the AQ for one more week, but that could change 6 days from now. Coastal and Liberty are both perfect in the conference right now while the other 4 teams are sitting at 2 losses. A team is eliminated from the AQ right now at 3 losses, so those 4 teams are at must-win-out situations. (And with those four teams, it is unlikely that they will make it to 7 wins without winning-out, so elimination from the AQ will basically mean elimination from the playoffs.) Next week, Coastal plays non-conference Charlotte, so all eyes will be on the Liberty game. If Liberty wins, it will eliminated all 4 of those 2-loss teams. (Coastal and Liberty still need to play each other and at least one of them would make it to at worst a 4-1 conference record.) If Liberty loses, however, it will still be theoretically possible to create a 3-2 logjam at the top of the standings to end the season.

MEAC – Almost half of the conference has now been completely knocked out, but we still have a 5-way tie for first place. Many of them will be playing each other over the final 3 weeks, so expect 1-2 teams out of that group to be eliminated each week. It will be hard for most of these teams to reach 7 wins without winning the AQ, so they should be in desperation-mode starting now. Two games next week will involve pairs of 1st place teams: Bethune-Cookman at Norfolk State (Thursday night) and Morgan State at NC A&T.

MVC – Northern Iowa upset Illinois State this past weekend, so NDSU is now in sole possession of 1st place. NDSU is a shoo-in to make the playoffs, either with an AQ or an At-Large, so the focus becomes who else will make it in. Two teams other than NDSU are already at 7 wins – Illinois State and now Youngstown State (who play each other next week). Indiana State only needs to win one of their final three games to hit that mark. But what is going to be the threshold for the MVC? Is a 7-5 MVC 4th of 5th place team better than an 8-4 second place team from the NEC or SoCon? (I would say yes.) I'm sure the committee is hoping some of the MVC bubble teams do some losing so that they don't have to make those choices. Games to watch next week: Youngstown State at Illinois State and NDSU at Northern Iowa.

NEC – Every non-NEC fan should be rooting for Bryant to win-out. The worst-case scenario for bubble teams would be for Bryant to finish 8-2 (in D1) and not get the AQ. Most of their OOC opponents are actually pretty decent (top Big South team in Liberty, top Patriot team in Bucknell, CAA teams Maine and Stony Brook) and they beat all except Liberty. Sacred Heart would be a semi-respectable bubble team at 7-3 (with a win over Delaware), but they're not as threatening. Bryant and Sacred Heart will play each other in 2 weeks, so that could decide it all. Games to watch next week: Honestly, all 3 of them. The three teams in real contention for the AQ will be the Away team in all 3 games, so there could be some good upsets – which could actually make the whole picture clearer.

OVC – Simple, but important results this past weekend. The top 3 teams all won their games, so they are all still alive. However, the 5 teams who were below them have now all been completely eliminated. (It was not a good week for the state of Tennessee.) The odds are good that both EKU and Jacksonville State will make the playoffs – but we'll see what happens with Eastern Illinois. EIU really cannot lose any more games – they wouldn't be able to get to 7 wins and it would take a miracle for them to get back in the AQ race. Next week's big game: EKU at Jacksonville State – battle for 1st place.

Patriot – The AQ race could be over soon. Fordham (4-0) plays at Bucknell (3-0) next week. If Fordham wins, they clinch the AQ. If Bucknell wins, the AQ race will continue for at least another week. Both teams have at least 7 wins, so it's very possible both could make it in. (Even if Bucknell loses next week, they could still finish at 9-2 – with both loses coming against playoff teams.) Colgate could possibly get to 7 wins, but they would still have trouble justifying an At-Large. Next week's big game: Fordham at Bucknell.

Pioneer – And just like that, we have a 3-way tie for first. Jacksonville was upset in the last 5 seconds by Marist to bring them back to the rest of the pack. Overall, the conference is surprisingly balanced so look for 2 teams to be eliminated each week – especially since this is a one-bid league. Game to watch next week: Drake at Dayton

SoCon – Another conference that could be wrapped up next weekend. This past weekend's 1st place match-up between Chatty and Western Carolina ended with a 51-0 win for Chatty. Now, if Chatty wins next week against Wofford, they will clinch the AQ. WCU, the only other team besides Chatty to be able to make it to 7 wins, now must beat Alabama (yes, that Alabama) in order to make it to that mark. Their fate is out of their hands. (That's what happens when you schedule 2 I-A money games AND 2 non-D1 games.) Next week's big game: Wofford at Chatty

Southland – Two top teams lost this past weekend, but this still leaves us with 3 teams in first place (and 3 more one game back). It is still wide open. With no one reaching 7 wins yet, every game involving these 6 teams will be important – and there are few guaranteed wins (as seen by Central Arkansas losing by 17 to Abilene Christian). Next week, there will be two games matching up top teams: Lamar at Central Arkansas and SF Austin at McNeese.

Thanks for the detailed summary. It has to be a record for how many games in a season we've played a team coming of a bye with two weeks to prep/scout us. Like you pointed out, the Stony Brook game is far from a lock and will be tough for JMU to pull out. Their record isn't indicative of what type of team they are.

here are some projections:
http://beyondsportsnetwork.com/blog/fcs-...ons-11214/

another: http://nobowls.com/

(11-03-2014 11:32 AM)jmusuperfan Wrote:  another: http://nobowls.com/

We will not outbid Liberty.

(11-03-2014 11:34 AM)JMU2004 Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 11:32 AM)jmusuperfan Wrote:  another: http://nobowls.com/

We will not outbid Liberty.

Not Liberty, but we would likely outbid anyone else. Bourne and company took a lot of heat for not bidding enough to host EKU in 2011 (even though the OVC helped EKU tremendously) and I don't think it will happen again.

One of Liberty's wins was against a D2 and they still have to play at Coastal. At best they finish at 7-4 (D2 game doesn't count for playoffs). Are they still a lock for the playoffs as the #2 from the Big South with only 7 D1 wins? Then again they could drop the game to Charleston Southern also and definitely be out.

right now, I'd say we are on a collision course to play Liberty in Round 1.

and they will outbid us. and JMU Nation will have its latest reason to *****, moan, complain, etc

(11-03-2014 11:42 AM)jmufan2008 Wrote:  One of Liberty's wins was against a D2 and they still have to play at Coastal. At best they finish at 7-4 (D2 game doesn't count for playoffs). Are they still a lock for the playoffs as the #2 from the Big South with only 7 D1 wins? Then again they could drop the game to Charleston Southern also and definitely be out.

they need to win out to be a lock, I think.

I've said it before but I love this write-up every week. Honestly it's where I get my FCS weekly roundup. Thanks Saxkow

just another comment on Liberty, I think they are a virtual lock to get in if they win their next two games and lose at Coastal.

that makes them 7-4 with losses to FBS UNC, seeded Coastal, possibly seeded Richmond in 2OT and possible playoff team Indiana St.

plus they will have wins over likely playoff bound Bryant and FBS App State.

it is an impressive resume. Certainly better than most 8-4 teams that will be up for consideration. They played two FBS teams. You can't say they ducked a schedule

(11-03-2014 11:44 AM)JMU2004 Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 11:42 AM)jmufan2008 Wrote:  One of Liberty's wins was against a D2 and they still have to play at Coastal. At best they finish at 7-4 (D2 game doesn't count for playoffs). Are they still a lock for the playoffs as the #2 from the Big South with only 7 D1 wins? Then again they could drop the game to Charleston Southern also and definitely be out.

they need to win out to be a lock, I think.

I agree.

On a related note, people complain about our cupcake games early in the season, but at least we're not playing a D2 game every year like we were several years ago. Beating St. Francis by a few TD's vs Lock Haven 70-7 could be the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs. I'm surprised a team like Liberty that has been on the cusp of playoffs but not gotten in so many times still makes themselves so vulnerable by doing that.

Yeah.... nobowls.com needs to realize that if JMU were to be matched up with Liberty in the first round, they will outbid us. 500% guarantee.

you guys aren't looking closely enough at Liberty's entire schedule. Focusing too much on 1 D2 game.

at the beginning of the year you wouldn't say this, but they probably ended up playing a much tougher schedule than us.

for people who believe in that sort of thing, Sagarin agrees:

Strength of Schedule:

Liberty - 147
JMU - 179

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

(11-03-2014 11:40 AM)All Dukes_All Day Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 11:34 AM)JMU2004 Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 11:32 AM)jmusuperfan Wrote:  another: http://nobowls.com/

We will not outbid Liberty.

Not Liberty, but we would likely outbid anyone else. Bourne and company took a lot of heat for not bidding enough to host EKU in 2011 (even though the OVC helped EKU tremendously) and I don't think it will happen again.

You have hedged your bet...

I really don't have issue with submitting a bid that is comparable to what we pay for a team to come play during the season. I believe that to be in the $75K to $80K range, but that crap of under $50K is just stupid and showing our arrogance. I really expect Liberty to submit $125K and I say let them have it. Its close enough to fill the place with a lot of JMU folk and we'll even pay less for a ticket than what JMU will charge. Its just the way they do business.

(11-03-2014 11:57 AM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  you guys aren't looking closely enough at Liberty's entire schedule. Focusing too much on 1 D2 game.

at the beginning of the year you wouldn't say this, but they probably ended up playing a much tougher schedule than us.

Yea, but that D2 win doesn't count in the eyes of the committee, right? Does 7-4 from the Big South get them in?

on the Big Sky mess, it's possible they could get 5. To ensure they isn't a perfect storm to leave us out at 8-4, we really need that number to get to 4.

the team to root against is our old friends at Montana.

Eastern Washington is getting in
Cal Poly has: @Idaho St (a fraud IMO), UC Davis, @San Diego. They ain't losing again and will get in
Northern Arizona has: UC DAvis, at North Dakota, So Utah. They ain't losing again and will get in

so now we are down to 3 teams: Montana, Montana St, Idaho St

Idaho St plays at Montana St. So that's at Cal Poly and at Montana St they have coming up. I don't see them winning either. So they'll have 5 losses and be out (or, at least well behind us in the at large pool).

so that brings us down to Montana and Montana St, who of course will play each other to end the year.

Look at the schedules for these too:

Montana State: Portland St, Idaho St, at Montana
Montana: at Eastern Washington, at So Utah, Montana St

Montana st will win its next two and be 8-3 and probably in.

If Montana upsets EWU on the road next week, the Big Sky is likely getting 5 unless there is a big upset.

But if Montana loses at EWU, then they MUST win against Montana St to have any realistic shot of getting in. In which case, the big sky is back to having 5 bids.

so, bottom line: root against Montana to lose at EWU and home against Montana State. That will help our chances. The rest of the Big Sky will likely fall to form and they'll get a minimum of four.

(11-03-2014 12:00 PM)JMU2004 Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 11:57 AM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  you guys aren't looking closely enough at Liberty's entire schedule. Focusing too much on 1 D2 game.

at the beginning of the year you wouldn't say this, but they probably ended up playing a much tougher schedule than us.

Yea, but that D2 win doesn't count in the eyes of the committee, right? Does 7-4 from the Big South get them in?

yes, 7-4 will get them in. the Big South is not bad this year. don't go off the past. for this season, they are pretty good and have done well OOC. In past years, you wouldn't think twice about the SoCon or Patriot getting two. In 2014, the BS has far outperformed both those leagues and would be worthy of two teams.

(11-03-2014 12:09 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 12:00 PM)JMU2004 Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 11:57 AM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  you guys aren't looking closely enough at Liberty's entire schedule. Focusing too much on 1 D2 game.

at the beginning of the year you wouldn't say this, but they probably ended up playing a much tougher schedule than us.

Yea, but that D2 win doesn't count in the eyes of the committee, right? Does 7-4 from the Big South get them in?

yes, 7-4 will get them in. the Big South is not bad this year. don't go off the past. for this season, they are pretty good and have done well OOC. In past years, you wouldn't think twice about the SoCon or Patriot getting two. In 2014, the BS has far outperformed both those leagues and would be worthy of two teams.

I get that, but I do wonder if an 8-4 CAA team (W&M) gets in over a 7-4 BS team.