Put together some charts to show what's happened to the offense. I tried not to include transitional teams in the national averages of 1-AA teams to keep from throwing off the numbers too much. The first is total points/game:



The next chart is total yards/game (I forgot to change the label on the Y-axis and didn't realize it until after I uploaded the chart):



The third chart is passing yards/game:



This last chart is W&M's completion percentage. I don't have national averages for that stat.



These charts don't tell us anything new but illustrate what's happened. As offenses have become more prolific the W&M offense has gotten worse. Since 2010 the offense has been well below the national averages. The passing game has markedly declined. For Cluley to get to a 60% completion percentage (he's at 52.8% this year) he'd have to go 17-24 in each of the remaining 6 games. The QBs in 2013 were both fifth-year seniors with more starting experience than Callahan or Archer had so that's not the reason.

Great analysis, spells it out well--and of course our offensive woes coincide with my entire 4 years at the College (2011-present)...great luck! Gotta get this whole thing figured out.

Great work. I don't have time to mess around with a lot of research, but I'll be if we plotted the same data going back 30 years you would see how it maybe dipped a little every two or three years and then moved back up. We had QBs that started three and four years for us. When you go back and look at how many QBs started either as RFr or Soph and stayed through senior year it is amazing what continuity does. I actually think that this is the heart of the matter. Whether it is due to health issues or something else, we have had more QBs in a revolving door mode than I care to count.

While the information is interesting, I think the single biggest factor to the dip in production was the 2009 season and the spectacular defense we had that season. Coach Laycock played very close to the vest in many games including the win at UVA that season. We certainly played close to the vest in the semifinal at Villanova that year and it almost worked. Since that time, our defenses were largely proficient with the exception of 2012. In that season, we have our highest passing and yardage totals of the last 4 seasons because we were often behind. Contrast last season, where we frequently stopped making any real attempt to score once we had a 10 point lead. We have in the last five seasons stopped doing many of the things we loved as fans, but we also have been fairly successful. Last season, we were 7-3 and a Tre dropped TD from going to the playoffs. We won a lot of games in 2009, won the conference title in 2010, and then slipped in 2011 and 2012 mostly due to a combination of weaker defense and poor QB play.
The passing game I have watched for the last 20 years has drastically changed since 2009. Tre McBride has made a lot of excellent catches in the last 3 seasons in particular. However, if you really think about it, the receivers are not open that often. In 2009, we had Dohse(WR), Chase Hill(WR), and Varno and Gottlieb as solid receiving tight ends. We had some 80+ yard receptions that season and a lot of beyond the first down routes completed. So, I would argue that not having that go to guy like Musinki or D. Thompson(in 2004 for Lang), is critical. Even on the weeks we move the ball, most of our passes are short and then run after the catch or the deep ball. There are no intermediate routes. Sean Ballard might be the only reliable intermediate target and he is frequently hurt. It is not all Cluely. Watch this Saturday to see if Tre, Reeves, or Dedmon are open 10-15 yards down the field. All the offenses we long to see, are based on the intermediate routes and/or quick slants. Too many of our plays are the lateral pass, slow swing variety.
I expect Coach Rogers and Laycock will open up the playbook this week. If they do not, we have NO chance to beat Villanova, or possibly any other remaining opponent except Elon.

For clarity, we have not in more than 30 years of Coach Layock's tenure ever had a defense like 2009. Statistically, last season might have been better, but I think the 2009 defense was better due to better competition that season. Perhaps if we schemed like we used to in the 1990's when we had no defense, we might do better offensively. This season the defense is no where near the 2009 and last season level. We run it fairly well, but are not dominant, and our offense is not well set up for the 8-15 yard pass. We do the 2-3 yard pass very well.

If this is to be a playoff season, everything will be different from here on beginning Saturday. More chances by the offense, less sacks, less zero yardage plays(unless incomplete passes). Villanova is almost certain to score 30. We won't trying to play field position and running the ball. So, call up the flea flicker, the Saboor pass, the down and out and post pattern. Give Tre actual routes to run, instead of go long and I'll throw it up. If necessary, put Laws and Anderson at WR in the game plan this week. For one week, it is post-Thanksgiving 2001, and it is the Tribe v. Bryant Westbrook and Villanova. That game the Tribe scored over 40 and scored last to win. It will take that kind of gameplan and effort Saturday. GO TRIBE!!!

2009 seems like the inflection point at which Laycock abandoned offense and embraced Tresselball as his lord and savior. Even then the offense still was above average, and these days I'm not sure you can given how the game is tilted towards offenses.

(10-13-2014 03:49 PM)Tribe32 Wrote:  Great work. I don't have time to mess around with a lot of research, but I'll be if we plotted the same data going back 30 years you would see how it maybe dipped a little every two or three years and then moved back up. We had QBs that started three and four years for us. When you go back and look at how many QBs started either as RFr or Soph and stayed through senior year it is amazing what continuity does. I actually think that this is the heart of the matter. Whether it is due to health issues or something else, we have had more QBs in a revolving door mode than I care to count.

Maybe, but 2009/10 had functional offenses and passing games with QBs that had very little experience. As I wrote in the post, the 2013 offense had two 5th year senior QBs who both started games before and the passing game was still a mess. Something with the offense feels fundamentally broken. It's hard to imagine JL back in the 90s/2000s going this long without finding someone who can run the offense.

I agree with much of what has been said here.

In 2009 I felt we became way way too conservative as the season went on. We had an excellent quarterback with a very deep receiver corps and two good tight ends, and if it had not been for a blown coverage by nova on a screen pass to Cam Dohse we only score 3 points in that game. The failure to develop the offense hurt us badly when it counted. And by the Nova game, 3 guys from our DLine rotation were out (Robertson, Pradhanang and Kyle Obrien). A strategy of playing ball control against the best O line in FCS (Nova) at that point was going to get us worn down, and it happened.

The biggest challenge I see on defense is an inability to get ahead of the offense by stuffing runs and defending passes on first and second down.

On offense, I think we have had an unfortunate (in the long term) period where we have combined average QB play, a lot of QB injuries. a very good RB rotation, and pretty solid defensive play overall. As a result, the offense has atrophied. The staff appears to have adopted a conservative approach in response to the teams talent. In the short term that is good coaching. You compete by making the best of what you have. In the longer term, it may backfire because its hard to get players and staff out of a mentality.

How Cluley will affect that remains unclear. Rocco will point out statistically that Ortiz was average at best, but even if you include Cluley, I rank Ortiz as the most talented QB we were able to field from 2011-present. Losing him hurt a lot.


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We certainly played close to the vest in the semifinal at Villanova that year and it almost worked........

The 2009 defense (and the team overall) was by far the best team I have seen since following the team since the 80's. With a break or two, a call (or non-call), or changes in playcalling, we face Montana, who would have struggled against that defense.

I disagree that guys are not open. Saturday guys were open, and always have been. How many times in the last couple of years has Tre been wide open, only to slow or come back for an underthrown pass? Too often it was hand the ball to Grimes (no dispute one of our best backs ever and a great guy), but for years it was give the ball to Jon. Our offense has become way too conservative, and too predictable. How many times last week on third and four or five did we try a swing pass or pass behind the line of scrimmage? Perhaps some younger coaches should be given more input on calls. Remember a few years ago when Corley convinced JL to throw to the TE on fourth down against UR?? You know the ball was going to Grimes otherwise, and perhaps he makes it, but at least we changed it up a bit.
I defended the team last year after the tough loss to Towson. We played a physical, gutsy game, but again, no offense. A very angry fan (perhaps not a long term fan) told he does not think he will ever come to a game again after seeing that offensive performance. I agreed there was no offense, but pointed out how hard the defense fought, and how physical the game was. He was not swayed, and I do not know him, so I would not recognize him if I saw him at another game. I hope he did watch the UNH game.......

One other thing. The trouble with relying on D and playing Tresselball at this level is that you dont have 3 lines of scholarship guys to rotate. It has seemed to me that since 2009 we lean a lot more on the defense even when it is clear we are banged up. Last season was a great case and point. By the time our 3 game win streak was over last year and we played Towson, we were one deep at a number of spots. Thats why I think its crucial that you do whatever you have to do to build up your offensive striking power. If that means letting Cluley throw a few picks in blowouts against Lafayette so we can get him game experience before he has to go in cold against Villanova, so be it.


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(10-13-2014 05:31 PM)ttgwm02 Wrote:  How Cluley will affect that remains unclear. Rocco will point out statistically that Ortiz was average at best, but even if you include Cluley, I rank Ortiz as the most talented QB we were able to field from 2011-present. Losing him hurt a lot.

Based on what we've seen at QB from 2011-present that may be true, but that's a low bar. I realize it's only 6 games but Cluley isn't giving me Lang Campbell flashbacks.

Agreed. The kid plays hard though. Has a nice arm. And hes been clobbered this year in almost every game. Lets see what happens this week. If he completes 60 percent of his throws, we avoid the "50 yards or bust" tendancy, he makes most of the right reads and we score more than 20 ... that will be a good day.


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This week will be a good test, but I think we will still do well the rest of the season regardless of the outcome. I think Richmond would be the only real hard test, and at this point if Strauss is back by then he's a lot less mobile so maybe not that difficult of a game.


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And, this explains why China is crushing us in the global market. Way to put in a full day's work for a full day's pay. I hope you're not billing budding jailbirds for time spent on this.

Nice work.

#RisingTribe

Federal holiday. Had free time at work.

One of the most disappointing things during the UNH broadcast was when they pointed put that Tre only has 6 100 yard games in his college career. With his talent that just doesn't seem possible

Lets face facts sports fans; JL is over the hill and no longer has "fire in the belly". Anyone who has worked at the exact same job, for the exact same employer/team, for the exact same pay, with the exact same resources will understand this sentiment. Not to mention the fact that the JL job/position is the most secure job in the industry.

I, personally, am a big fan of experience and maturity in any job, but, unfortunately, the older one is, the fewer risks one takes. And, if after 35 years in the job one takes the risk and fails - there are not a lot of opportunities in the future to succeed.

Over the past ten years, I have watched other CAA teams recruit/attract outstanding QBs, many of whom have excelled as true Freshmen and some who have excelled as transfers from other schools. With the exception of the kid from UNC who was injured and basically did not play after the injury, W&M has not recruited any QB to get excited about in that period.

some comments:

*Lang Campbell did little until his senior year (the team was 5-5 his junior season); more than half his career yardage, TD passes, and completions were in that one great senior year. Not comparing Cluley potential in any way to Lang, but fact is that Campbell did little until his senior year.

*Probably unfair to say JL hasn't had any good qb recruits over the past five years....his best quarterbacks in that time period have all been injured and hardly played--Paulus, Ortiz, Mosley. Things might have been totally different if they were all healthy. I will agree we've recruited some real duds too.

*McBride has just six 100 yd plus games because he's had nobody to throw him the ball.

*JL may have been coaching a long time, but he's had two national semi-finalist teams in the past ten years.

*The Villanova game is a huge litmus test for the remainder of the season. If Cluley flops again and we get clobbered by Villanova things will be very bleak around here.

(10-13-2014 09:46 PM)zablenoise Wrote:  One of the most disappointing things during the UNH broadcast was when they pointed put that Tre only has 6 100 yard games in his college career. With his talent that just doesn't seem possible

I guess stats don't lie. I have seen Tre make some nice catches, the WVU and Tech games come to mind. He is always a threat on returns. Seems a great and very talented young man.

I have also seen Tre muff a few (though these examples would have been great receptions) - the pain of them were they could have had major impacts on the game. One was our last play against Towson last year where Tre almost snagged that ball at the goal line, we lose though by 6. And at UNH when we had a chance to get some points at then did the half, a long pass went through his hands that would have put us at least in FG position just prior to halftime.

Those two plays stick in my mind.

Two plays in 3 1/2 years means he's been ultra-stable. Professional WRs drop two nearly every game.

I, too, have some concerns with coaching and player development but we need to take a step back and look at the big picture because most FCS programs would love to have our resume over the past five years as we've had some good times and done it the right way. Let's not lose focus on that. I truly believe we've been one player away from winning one NC and contending for another. We've had terrible luck with injuries, especially at QB. Who here doesn't think Lang at QB wouldn't have won the NC in '09 or maybe '10? How much better would we have been in '13 with a stud QB. ODU has one. Nova has one. UR and UNH may have two.

Tre McBride, Jon Grimes, and the other guys deserved more stable QB play but the ball didn't bounce in our favor.

We're 4-2 (1-1) with a great ranking so let's do some damage and hope our stud QB is developing. JL isn't going anywhere until he decides to retire and we have what we have on the roster. Go Tribe!

#RisingTribe