(10-13-2014 07:20 AM)Potomac Wrote: 2013 Playoffs Bids Per Conference:
Big Sky - 4
CAA - 3
Southland - 3
OVC - 3
MVC - 2
SoCon - 2
Patriot - 2
MEAC - 2
Big South - 1
NEC - 1
Pioneer - 1
Sagarin Conference Ratings through 10/11/14 and my predictions of bids:
1 - MVC (far and away ahead of CAA, they will get 4 bids minimum)
2 - CAA (3 bids minimum, maximum of 4 is possible)
3 - Big South (very close behind CAA, 2 bids minimum)
4 - SoCon (also close behind, 2 bids minimum)
5 - Southland (2 minimum, 3 likely until proven otherwise. NCAA gives this conference too much credit)
6 - OVC (2 bids)
7 - Big Sky (3 bids only because of 4 last year, no way they'll drop 2 in a single year)
8 - Patriot (1 bid, down from 2 last year)
9 - NEC (1 bid)
10 - MEAC (1 bid, down from 2 last year)
11 - Pioneer (1 bid)
Bottom Line: We must finish no worse than 4th place in the CAA and cannot be tied for 4th with Delaware.
MVFC last week I said 5. But YSU got upset by WIU. WIU still has a losing record, but the last 2 weeks has lost y 7 @ NDSU and upset YSU. Probably will pull another upset. Looking at the MVFC schedules, they could have as little as 3 teams in (with up to 4 teams at 7-5) and still as many as 5 teams get in. UNI playing 2 I-A is likely going to bite them in the arse again. I think ultimately they'll get 4 in.
Big South is 2 bids MAXIMUM, not minimum. Yes they may be close behind the CAA, but they have only 6 teams to the CAA's 12. Them getting 2 teams in would be equivalent to the CAA getting in 4. The Big South in 4 AQ seasons has gotten 1 team in 3 times and 2 teams in once in 2012, when CCU and SBU got in. Their scheduling is a mess (although not as bad as the So-Con's). They haven't started league play yet, and their league looks like CCU + 5 other decent to mediocre teams that will start knocking each other off.
-CCU (7-0) will likely win the AQ (could go 12-0, dnp a I-A).
-CSU (5-1) but beat 2 Div II, a non scholly Cambell, and plays 2 SEC (lost to Vandy). Still has @ CCU, @ Monmouth, @ Liberty, @ Georgia. They have to win 2 of those (+Presby and GW at home) to have a shot at 9-3. 8-4/6-4 vs Div I won't get them in.
-Monmouth (5-1): 11 games, no I-A.
-Liberty (4-3): 2 I-A & Div II.
-GW (3-3): I-A & Div II.
-Presby (3-3): played a Div II, still has to play a 2nd I-A, Ol Miss, only 11 games.
IF the Big South gets a 2nd in will likely be Monmouth or Liberty.
So-Con is 2 bids MAXIMUM, not minimum. Their scheduling is a MESS. 3 of their top 4 plays 2 I-A and 3 of their top 4 plays 2 Div II. They have a better chance at only 1 team in than 3. After their AQ, they might not even have a 2nd team with more than 6 Div I wins.
-WCU (4-2/2-0).
Beat 2 Div II schools and plays 2 I-A. Lost to USF and still has to play Bama. They have to win out besides Bama to get to 9-3/7 Div 1 wins. They won't get an at large at 8-4/6 Div I wins over a CAA team that has 8 Div I wins.
-UTC (3-3/2-0): Played and lost to 2 I-A schools + lost to JSU OOC
-Samford (3-2/2-1): Lost to TCU and beat a Div 2. Still has to play a second Div 2 and Auburn. They have to win out besides Auburn to get to 9-3/7 Div 1 wins. They won't get an at large at 8-4/6 Div I wins over a CAA team that has 8 Div I wins.
-Wofford (3-3/1-1): Lost GA Tech and beat 2 Div II. Only play 11 games. They have to win out to get to 8-3/6 Div I wins. They have zero chance at 7-4/5 Div I wins.
Southland has always been a 1-2 bid conference except for last year. The NCAA isn't giving them too much credit. Last year was an exception at 3 bids, their only year they have gotten 3.
Here's how I see it playing out for 23 teams:
MVFC: 4
CAA: 4
Big Sky: 3
Southland 2
Big South 2
So Con 2
OVC 2
Patriot 1
MEAC 1
NEC 1
Pioneer 1
A 24th will come from somewhere...
Bottom line their isn't going to be 13 at large available with 8 Div I wins and only 3 I-AA losses. An 8-4/5-3 CAA team that won 6 of their last 7 without any bad losses is going to get into a 24 team playoff.