Before everyone reminds me that games are played on the field, not in computers, I do think ratings systems like the Sagarins are pretty good predictors/ratings by the mid-way point of the season.

At this point in the season, we are rated 5th in the CAA (behind the obvious group of UNH, Nova, UR and W&M) and 39 in the FCS overall.

Using the predictor scores, we would be favorites in 4 of the final 5 games, -6.5 @ Charlotte, -3 vs. W&M, -1.5 @ Stony Brook and -16.5 vs. Elon. We would be a 9 point dog at Richmond.

Would be real interesting to see if 8-4 and top 25 wins over Albany and W&M would be enough to get in. Very close...but I would say yes, and think W&M will slowly start falling from the graces of the national rankings. Think the league will get 4 teams.

I think it's worth noting that some of the teams ahead of JMU in the sagarin rankings are Ivy League teams who do not participate in the FCS playoffs. For playoff discussions, it is worth omitting them.

They are:
Harvard, Dartmouth, Yale and Princeton.

JMU ranks 35th among playoff eligible FCS teams.

(10-12-2014 02:21 PM)Potomac Wrote:  I think it's worth noting that some of the teams ahead of JMU in the sagarin rankings are Ivy League teams who do not participate in the FCS playoffs. For playoff discussions, it is worth omitting them.

They are:
Harvard, Dartmouth, Yale and Princeton.

JMU ranks 35th among playoff eligible FCS teams.

Have the Sagarins been updated for this week?

Gets updated on Sundays.

Jumped 15 spots in sagarins even with a few point drop in schedule rating. Predictor went up by about 4 points from last week. I'll update after dinner for Richmond and Elon, but right now with 3 points for homefield advantage: @Charlotte, -6.92; W&M, -2.46; @SB, -2.13...

(10-12-2014 06:02 PM)jmufan2008 Wrote:  Gets updated on Sundays.

Jumped 15 spots in sagarins even with a few point drop in schedule rating. Predictor went up by about 4 points from last week. I'll update after dinner for Richmond and Elon, but right now with 3 points for homefield advantage: @Charlotte, -6.92; W&M, -2.46; @SB, -2.13...

The data I provided was inclusive of Saturday's games and used the 3.55 homefield factor along with the predictor score. I rounded off to the nearest half point since I have never seen lines in decimals. +9 @ Richmond, -16.5 vs. Elon.

(10-12-2014 06:16 PM)PhillyDuke Wrote:  

(10-12-2014 06:02 PM)jmufan2008 Wrote:  Gets updated on Sundays.

Jumped 15 spots in sagarins even with a few point drop in schedule rating. Predictor went up by about 4 points from last week. I'll update after dinner for Richmond and Elon, but right now with 3 points for homefield advantage: @Charlotte, -6.92; W&M, -2.46; @SB, -2.13...

The data I provided was inclusive of Saturday's games and used the 3.55 homefield factor along with the predictor score. I rounded off to the nearest half point since I have never seen lines in decimals. +9 @ Richmond, -16.5 vs. Elon.

This line will be 3 by game time. Rocco is the QB for the next month at least and UR will likely struggle.

(10-12-2014 06:16 PM)PhillyDuke Wrote:  

(10-12-2014 06:02 PM)jmufan2008 Wrote:  Gets updated on Sundays.

Jumped 15 spots in sagarins even with a few point drop in schedule rating. Predictor went up by about 4 points from last week. I'll update after dinner for Richmond and Elon, but right now with 3 points for homefield advantage: @Charlotte, -6.92; W&M, -2.46; @SB, -2.13...

The data I provided was inclusive of Saturday's games and used the 3.55 homefield factor along with the predictor score. I rounded off to the nearest half point since I have never seen lines in decimals. +9 @ Richmond, -16.5 vs. Elon.

Fair enough. I usually just use 3 because my spreadsheet wasn't set up to dynamically change it and I'm to lazy to update all the numbers for that each time. At the beginning of the season the home advantage was like 4.5, so I think it's continuing to drop now that the ratings are getting more accurate.

Charlotte should be a couple TD win. W&M's stock continues to drop (3 or 4 points just in the last week), so I think we'll probably be favored by a TD by the time that game comes. RU has gone up a bit, but could drop back down in the next month, but could be much closer than most thought a couple weeks ago. Elon should be about what we got with Towson...

2013 Playoffs Bids Per Conference:
Big Sky - 4
CAA - 3
Southland - 3
OVC - 3
MVC - 2
SoCon - 2
Patriot - 2
MEAC - 2
Big South - 1
NEC - 1
Pioneer - 1

Sagarin Conference Ratings through 10/11/14 and my predictions of bids:
1 - MVC (far and away ahead of CAA, they will get 4 bids minimum)
2 - CAA (3 bids minimum, maximum of 4 is possible)
3 - Big South (very close behind CAA, 2 bids minimum)
4 - SoCon (also close behind, 2 bids minimum)
5 - Southland (2 minimum, 3 likely until proven otherwise. NCAA gives this conference too much credit)
6 - OVC (2 bids)
7 - Big Sky (3 bids only because of 4 last year, no way they'll drop 2 in a single year)
8 - Patriot (1 bid, down from 2 last year)
9 - NEC (1 bid)
10 - MEAC (1 bid, down from 2 last year)
11 - Pioneer (1 bid)

Bottom Line: We must finish no worse than 4th place in the CAA and cannot be tied for 4th with Delaware.

(10-13-2014 07:20 AM)Potomac Wrote:  2013 Playoffs Bids Per Conference:
Big Sky - 4
CAA - 3
Southland - 3
OVC - 3
MVC - 2
SoCon - 2
Patriot - 2
MEAC - 2
Big South - 1
NEC - 1
Pioneer - 1

Sagarin Conference Ratings through 10/11/14 and my predictions of bids:
1 - MVC (far and away ahead of CAA, they will get 4 bids minimum)
2 - CAA (3 bids minimum, maximum of 4 is possible)
3 - Big South (very close behind CAA, 2 bids minimum)
4 - SoCon (also close behind, 2 bids minimum)
5 - Southland (2 minimum, 3 likely until proven otherwise. NCAA gives this conference too much credit)
6 - OVC (2 bids)
7 - Big Sky (3 bids only because of 4 last year, no way they'll drop 2 in a single year)
8 - Patriot (1 bid, down from 2 last year)
9 - NEC (1 bid)
10 - MEAC (1 bid, down from 2 last year)
11 - Pioneer (1 bid)

Bottom Line: We must finish no worse than 4th place in the CAA and cannot be tied for 4th with Delaware.

MVFC last week I said 5. But YSU got upset by WIU. WIU still has a losing record, but the last 2 weeks has lost y 7 @ NDSU and upset YSU. Probably will pull another upset. Looking at the MVFC schedules, they could have as little as 3 teams in (with up to 4 teams at 7-5) and still as many as 5 teams get in. UNI playing 2 I-A is likely going to bite them in the arse again. I think ultimately they'll get 4 in.

Big South is 2 bids MAXIMUM, not minimum. Yes they may be close behind the CAA, but they have only 6 teams to the CAA's 12. Them getting 2 teams in would be equivalent to the CAA getting in 4. The Big South in 4 AQ seasons has gotten 1 team in 3 times and 2 teams in once in 2012, when CCU and SBU got in. Their scheduling is a mess (although not as bad as the So-Con's). They haven't started league play yet, and their league looks like CCU + 5 other decent to mediocre teams that will start knocking each other off.
-CCU (7-0) will likely win the AQ (could go 12-0, dnp a I-A).
-CSU (5-1) but beat 2 Div II, a non scholly Cambell, and plays 2 SEC (lost to Vandy). Still has @ CCU, @ Monmouth, @ Liberty, @ Georgia. They have to win 2 of those (+Presby and GW at home) to have a shot at 9-3. 8-4/6-4 vs Div I won't get them in.
-Monmouth (5-1): 11 games, no I-A.
-Liberty (4-3): 2 I-A & Div II.
-GW (3-3): I-A & Div II.
-Presby (3-3): played a Div II, still has to play a 2nd I-A, Ol Miss, only 11 games.
IF the Big South gets a 2nd in will likely be Monmouth or Liberty.

So-Con is 2 bids MAXIMUM, not minimum. Their scheduling is a MESS. 3 of their top 4 plays 2 I-A and 3 of their top 4 plays 2 Div II. They have a better chance at only 1 team in than 3. After their AQ, they might not even have a 2nd team with more than 6 Div I wins.
-WCU (4-2/2-0). Beat 2 Div II schools and plays 2 I-A. Lost to USF and still has to play Bama. They have to win out besides Bama to get to 9-3/7 Div 1 wins. They won't get an at large at 8-4/6 Div I wins over a CAA team that has 8 Div I wins.
-UTC (3-3/2-0): Played and lost to 2 I-A schools + lost to JSU OOC
-Samford (3-2/2-1): Lost to TCU and beat a Div 2. Still has to play a second Div 2 and Auburn. They have to win out besides Auburn to get to 9-3/7 Div 1 wins. They won't get an at large at 8-4/6 Div I wins over a CAA team that has 8 Div I wins.
-Wofford (3-3/1-1): Lost GA Tech and beat 2 Div II. Only play 11 games. They have to win out to get to 8-3/6 Div I wins. They have zero chance at 7-4/5 Div I wins.

Southland has always been a 1-2 bid conference except for last year. The NCAA isn't giving them too much credit. Last year was an exception at 3 bids, their only year they have gotten 3.

Here's how I see it playing out for 23 teams:
MVFC: 4
CAA: 4
Big Sky: 3
Southland 2
Big South 2
So Con 2
OVC 2
Patriot 1
MEAC 1
NEC 1
Pioneer 1
A 24th will come from somewhere...

Bottom line their isn't going to be 13 at large available with 8 Div I wins and only 3 I-AA losses. An 8-4/5-3 CAA team that won 6 of their last 7 without any bad losses is going to get into a 24 team playoff.

I agree that if the Dukes end up 8-4, there is little reason to believe that they won't be playing post Thanksgiving.

I'm all giddy after the Towson beating as well, but I'm grounded enough to not get too excited after beating what looks to be one of the worst teams in the FCS at this point. The D still has some work to do, but they look like they might be coming around. Also, remember how hard it is to win on the road...particuarly in November in the North (which we would have to do at least once).

(10-13-2014 12:03 PM)All Dukes_All Day Wrote:  I agree that if the Dukes end up 8-4, there is little reason to believe that they won't be playing post Thanksgiving.

I'm all giddy after the Towson beating as well, but I'm grounded enough to not get too excited after beating what looks to be one of the worst teams in the FCS at this point. The D still has some work to do, but they look like they might be coming around. Also, remember how hard it is to win on the road

particularly at Richmond, where they just always seem to have our number. at least since they've opened the new stadium. i really, really, really want to do some work there. we don't have that many opportunities left for "big" wins so we need to win there.

SBU is going to be very hard. On the road, up north in November, against a very good D.

the RB Stacey Beddel, who burned us as a potential recruit, along with about 17 other programs, is currently looking decent for Stony Brook. I've watched SB the last two weeks on TV and he's ran in a few TDs.
The SB game isn't looking promising, and frankly, that's completely pathetic.

BDK,
I believe the Southland is a 3 bid league because SE Louisiana and McNeese are both ranked. They'll get in.
Central Arkansas and Sam Houston State are hanging up there and don't underestimate SHSU. The NCAA has proven they love them and they're still getting in based on their "name alone". They'd have to get a 5th or more loss before I feel that SHSU is truly out.

(10-13-2014 01:01 PM)Potomac Wrote:  BDK,
I believe the Southland is a 3 bid league because SE Louisiana and McNeese are both ranked. They'll get in.
Central Arkansas and Sam Houston State are hanging up there and don't underestimate SHSU. The NCAA has proven they love them and they're still getting in based on their "name alone". They'd have to get a 5th or more loss before I feel that SHSU is truly out.

I haven't looked at any polls all season (won't until Nov) and couldn't tell you where teams are ranked unless I see it elsewhere or others bring it up. I look at records and who teams beat and lost to (and their records). They're not setting the playoff field according to the polls. Just because a team is ranked now with 6 weeks to go doesn't mean they are going to be ranked in 6 weeks or that they'll get in.

With 6 weeks to go, there's only 3 teams in the Southland with less than 3 losses. There are none with less than 2. And most of the teams with winning records still have to play each other.

SHSU is 3-3/2-3 vs Div I, with a big win over McNeese and a BAD Div II loss (if McNeese (4-2) loses a couple more games SHSU's win over them won't look so big, and McNeese still has 4 opponents with a winning record, including @ SELA). SHSU may win out (they have 3 of their 6 opponents left with winning records, all at home) to be a lock at 9-3, but 8-4 out of a power conference with a bad Div II loss is bubble at best.

And remember, 1 of the teams in the Southland with a winning record, Abilene Christian (4-3/2-1) is ineligible for the postseason, but is certainly good enough to play spoiler, as they have played 2 I-A (lost @ GST 38-37 (a game they should have won- many of us saw that on TV in Aug) and beat Troy State 38-35). McNeese, SHSU, UCA, and SFA all have to play Abilene Christian.

So IF the Southland gets 3 in, that would be the 24th team in my example above..